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Greek crisis is nothing compared to China

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Greek crisis is nothing compared to China

By Paul R. La Monica

Forget Greece. China is the real problem

The population of Greece is slightly less than the state of Ohio's, while its gross domestic product is just a little bit bigger than the economies of Kazakhstan, Algeria and Qatar.

Instead of focusing on Athens, investors should be much more worried about what's going on in China. You know, that country with about 1.4 billion people and the world's second largest GDP?

The Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite have both plunged about 30% from their highs due to legitimate concerns that Chinese stocks are in a bubble.

China's government is taking steps to try and minimize any more pain in the market. But that could backfire.

Related: China stocks volatile after Beijing acts to avoid crash

Regulators announced Sunday that they would make more capital available for an entity that will allow for even more margin lending, the practice of borrowing money to buy stocks. Buying on margin is incredibly risky.

Many experts believe the Chinese stock market's surge earlier this year was partly due to average investors taking on debt to invest in stocks.

And when stocks first started to fall last month, many of those investors had to quickly sell their investments to pay back the loans. That fueled an even bigger drop in stock prices.

150707133832-shanghai-composite-china-index-780x439.png

It could get worse as investors realize that the slowdown in China's economy should hurt corporate profits.

"Exuberance for Chinese stocks isn't backed up by fundamentals," said Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, in a report Monday morning. "Instead, it appears markets are being levitated by continued government borrowings and manipulations."

A move by big Chinese brokerage firms to keep buying stocks until the Shanghai Composite reaches a certain value could also be a problem.

Lei Mao, an assistant professor of finance at the Warwick Business School in the United Kingdom, worries that the government may be inflating the value of larger companies at the expense of many smaller firms.

To that end, the Shanghai Composite, which is home to many larger, established Chinese companies, did rise more than 2% Monday. But the Shenzhen, which is where younger, riskier tech stocks tend to trade, fell nearly 3%.

"These distortions, in today's market, create a significant flow of funds to large state-owned companies - a 'flight to state'. Plus they might create the reasons for another free-fall in the near future," Mao said.

Related: Why China's crazy stock market is getting scary

Why does this matter to people outside of China? A rapidly sinking stock market is often a sign of an economy in turmoil. Remember 2008? And 2000?

Since China is the second largest trading partner for both Europe and the United States, it goes without saying that a healthy Chinese economy is good news for the developed world.

All that talk about the possibility of Greek contagion if it is forced to drop the euro and bring back the drachma? That seems overdone too.

Economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland tweeted out a chart last week that showed that U.S. banks have nearly ten times as much exposure to China than Greece.

And Kathleen Brooks, a research director for FOREX.com, wrote in a report Monday that "sentiment could suffer across the Asia region and further afield" if China is unable to stop the bleeding in its stock market.

Related: China spends billions to try and prop up market

China is a massive consumer of commodities as well.

Oil prices dropped Monday -- and while many were quick to blame Greece and the drop in the euro, that doesn't make that much sense when you think about it.

"Look at the stories written about the drop in the price of oil today, and they'll be talking about how the demand for oil drops because of Greece," said Chuck Butler, managing director of EverBank Global Markets, in a report Monday. "I have to think that's a bunch of bunk. China? Yes. Greece demand? No!"

Of course, you can't ignore Greece entirely. But don't get too caught up with the latest headlines from Europe either. China matters a lot more to the global economy -- and your portfolio.

CNNMoney's Heather Long, Alanna Petroff and Charles Riley contributed to this report.

Greek crisis is nothing compared to China - Jul. 6, 2015

Media is reporting it as the biggest crash in China in last 23 years!


 
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Panic, invincibility and blame in China's stock market

Carrie GracieChina editor
  • 6 July 2015. From the sectionChina
_84071368_shanghaistockexchangepicofoldpeoplebetting.jpg

China's latest emergency measures to calm its stock markets follow a slew of others over the course of the past week
Mainland shares have seen several days of erratic trade in recent weeks - despite moves by the Chinese securities regulator to calm markets.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite surged as much as 8% on Monday morning following a weekend of emergency meetings and more attempts to correct the volatility. It finished the trading day up 2.4%.

Here is how Chinese authorities have reacted so far:

Panic
It was all hands on deck over the weekend in a blizzard of emergency meetings and breathless headlines. Big market players were given no choice but to sign up to a government rescue.

Brokerages promised not to sell shares until the Shanghai market had recovered 4,500 points. They had to reach into their pockets on the spot for $19bn (£12.2bn) in a stabilisation fund.

All new share issues are suspended forthwith. The central bank will provide "liquidity support", in other words turn on the lending tap, to help borrowers boost the market.

These emergency measures follow a slew of others over the course of the past week.

Taken together, they constitute a stunning retreat from market principles and suggest that at this point, the government itself has little confidence in its own financial markets.

Whether any of it will work or not remains to be seen. Shanghai's benchmark index surged nearly 8% at Monday's opening with the Shenzhen exchange not far behind.

But they fell back later in the day and Beijing will not breathe out yet.

Nearly $3tn in stock values has been wiped out in three weeks and some warn that the stabilisation fund may not be enough to corral the bears and stop the slide.

Others complain that the government moves will benefit big players who buy the blue chip shares and offer little help to small retail investors.

But more fundamentally many wonder why the government is panicking at all. Investors who bought more than four months ago are still sitting on a tidy profit given that shares rose 150% over the space of a year before losing 30% in three short weeks.

At home and abroad, there are analysts who argue that the bubble needed to deflate and that a short sharp downward shock for investors is a useful corrective to speculative habits.

If the underlying fear is damage to the real economy wouldn't it be better tackled by tax cuts or public spending increases?

But that is not the deepest fear. The government's terror is being seen to be incompetent and even impotent.

This is a matter of confidence which goes well beyond the stock market.

Speculators have called Beijing's bluff. The stock market has become a classic "too big to fail" problem, which is where step two comes in:

Look invincible
_84071535_shanghaistockexchangegenericpicssmall-copy.jpg

Nearly $3tn in stock values has been wiped out in three weeks
Beijing sees its own credibility as the thin red line between order and chaos.

If confidence in the stock market fails, might it also fail in the banking system, the already fragile economy and ultimately in the management of all three?

The fact is that no one knows how much debt is out there or ultimately who stands behind it when the lenders cave in. Add to uncertainty the risk of public outrage.

Anyone who invested in shares before March is still sitting on a profit, but that still leaves a lot of people who have lost their shirt.

After all, 12 million new trading accounts were opened in May alone, the majority in the hands of buyers with little education, even less trading experience and whose stock market adventure was funded by borrowing.

The first rule of governing China is to keep angry people off the streets. Hence the paradox of a government introducing panic measures in order to look all powerful.

Of course, government taking control is not what China's stock markets are supposed to be about.

Markets require regulation but at the end of the day they need to develop effective feedback, co-ordination and a mature assessment of risk.

Government infantilising investors by galloping in to ensure the index stays up is not a market outcome.

Issuing orders to market players to buy this, hold that and freeze the next thing is a retreat to command economics.

No wonder one state newspaper has declared the stock market "a battlefield".

But what constitutes victory? And who exactly is the enemy? This leads us to step three:

Find someone to blame
_84071542_shanghaitrademaninfrontofboards.jpg

There are worries the latest government moves will benefit big players and offer little help to small retail investors
A few bad apples? At the end of last week the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced an investigation into market manipulation. After months of suspicious trading patterns, the timing of this move will provoke a hollow laugh in some quarters.

Foreigners? On social media, rumours swirled last week about overseas investors undermining the market by betting against Chinese shares via stock futures.

But the China Financial Futures Exchange has already denied these rumours. Chinese markets are largely insulated from global pressures and foreigners are marginal players however tempting a target.

A fall guy? Many investors are calling for the regulator's head. The chief of China's market regulator is Xiao Gang and his days must now be numbered.

But the real blame should lie squarely with the central government.

Its strategy, clear for the best part of a year, has been to pump up the stock market so that it could earn billions by selling shares in state owned enterprises, and at the same time make the public feel paper-rich again after the languishing property market had made them feel poor.

On this arithmetic, government and its state owned enterprises could offload debt, and Chinese citizens could be persuaded to save less and spend more thereby energising the rest of the economy.

But this was government gaming the market for opportunistic reasons rather than building a healthy stock market for the long term.

Beijing knew better than anyone that the surge was driven by borrowing, with speculative bets made not on any clearheaded assessment of company prospects or earnings but on gaming government hype.

In March, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People's Bank of China said: "A buoyant market on a solid footing could be a reliable funding source."

But what about a buoyant market on a shaky footing? Economic growth in the first quarter fell to 7% year-on-year.

And there was no sign of a turnaround in the second quarter. Until 12 June, stocks galloped ahead regardless.

All along sober heads warned that Chinese stock markets were stepping onto a "treadmill to hell".

Reform guru Wu Jinglian called the market "a casino where one player can see the cards of the other players".

Hu Shuli, editor of the financial journal Caixin cautioned against "pushing a 'mad bull' stock market to solve fundamental issues".

"Follow the trend until you find yourself in a coffin," thundered one market sceptic.

But we are where we are.

At an important crossroads where Beijing has chosen to flout its own reform agenda and move against the market. Perhaps there was an alternative to panic, invincibility and blame.

A confident Chinese government could have elected to hold its nerve; honour its pledge "to make markets the decisive force" in the economy and think about what it would do in the real crisis which threatens over bad loans and property.

Is it too late? Probably.

And worse, the events of the past 10 days have undermined reform, undermined confidence and made the real crisis substantially more likely.

Panic, invincibility and blame in China's stock market - BBC News
 
. . .
anyone else think this was a inside job? i'm sure a group of rich Chinese made a profit out of this while the lowly peasant lost big.
Of course Indian, now you just know? That is what is stock market are about, you earn some you lose some. Depending on how your greeds.
 
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. .
nice, reminds of Bush drive for every American to own a house, and look how that turned out :lol:

if the housing bubble goes burst it's gonna get nasty :butcher:
 
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nice, reminds of Bush drive for every American to own a house, and look how that turned out :lol:

if the housing bubble goes burst it's gonna get nasty :butcher:

I'm not a Republican fan but I have to blame Clinton for the housing mess (although he just signs things and not actually writes them).
1995 Community Reinvestment Act - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This basically told banks to loosen the rules on who could get a mortgage (ie unqualified people). SERIOUSLY BAD MOVE!

1999 Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This repealed an act that was implemented after the 1929 crash fiasco that said commercial banks should not be in the investment banking business.

Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This basically allowed credit default swaps from being highly scrutinized like other securities. SERIOUSLY BAD MOVE!
 
.
Greek crisis is nothing compared to China

By Paul R. La Monica

Forget Greece. China is the real problem

The population of Greece is slightly less than the state of Ohio's, while its gross domestic product is just a little bit bigger than the economies of Kazakhstan, Algeria and Qatar.

Instead of focusing on Athens, investors should be much more worried about what's going on in China. You know, that country with about 1.4 billion people and the world's second largest GDP?

The Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite have both plunged about 30% from their highs due to legitimate concerns that Chinese stocks are in a bubble.

China's government is taking steps to try and minimize any more pain in the market. But that could backfire.

Related: China stocks volatile after Beijing acts to avoid crash

Regulators announced Sunday that they would make more capital available for an entity that will allow for even more margin lending, the practice of borrowing money to buy stocks. Buying on margin is incredibly risky.

Many experts believe the Chinese stock market's surge earlier this year was partly due to average investors taking on debt to invest in stocks.

And when stocks first started to fall last month, many of those investors had to quickly sell their investments to pay back the loans. That fueled an even bigger drop in stock prices.

150707133832-shanghai-composite-china-index-780x439.png

It could get worse as investors realize that the slowdown in China's economy should hurt corporate profits.

"Exuberance for Chinese stocks isn't backed up by fundamentals," said Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, in a report Monday morning. "Instead, it appears markets are being levitated by continued government borrowings and manipulations."

A move by big Chinese brokerage firms to keep buying stocks until the Shanghai Composite reaches a certain value could also be a problem.

Lei Mao, an assistant professor of finance at the Warwick Business School in the United Kingdom, worries that the government may be inflating the value of larger companies at the expense of many smaller firms.

To that end, the Shanghai Composite, which is home to many larger, established Chinese companies, did rise more than 2% Monday. But the Shenzhen, which is where younger, riskier tech stocks tend to trade, fell nearly 3%.

"These distortions, in today's market, create a significant flow of funds to large state-owned companies - a 'flight to state'. Plus they might create the reasons for another free-fall in the near future," Mao said.

Related: Why China's crazy stock market is getting scary

Why does this matter to people outside of China? A rapidly sinking stock market is often a sign of an economy in turmoil. Remember 2008? And 2000?

Since China is the second largest trading partner for both Europe and the United States, it goes without saying that a healthy Chinese economy is good news for the developed world.

All that talk about the possibility of Greek contagion if it is forced to drop the euro and bring back the drachma? That seems overdone too.

Economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland tweeted out a chart last week that showed that U.S. banks have nearly ten times as much exposure to China than Greece.

And Kathleen Brooks, a research director for FOREX.com, wrote in a report Monday that "sentiment could suffer across the Asia region and further afield" if China is unable to stop the bleeding in its stock market.

Related: China spends billions to try and prop up market

China is a massive consumer of commodities as well.

Oil prices dropped Monday -- and while many were quick to blame Greece and the drop in the euro, that doesn't make that much sense when you think about it.

"Look at the stories written about the drop in the price of oil today, and they'll be talking about how the demand for oil drops because of Greece," said Chuck Butler, managing director of EverBank Global Markets, in a report Monday. "I have to think that's a bunch of bunk. China? Yes. Greece demand? No!"

Of course, you can't ignore Greece entirely. But don't get too caught up with the latest headlines from Europe either. China matters a lot more to the global economy -- and your portfolio.

CNNMoney's Heather Long, Alanna Petroff and Charles Riley contributed to this report.

Greek crisis is nothing compared to China - Jul. 6, 2015

Media is reporting it as the biggest crash in China in last 23 years!



It looks more like political drama than reality.




Lost in all the drama about the stockmarket is that it still plays a surprisingly small role in China. The free-float value of Chinese markets—the amount available for trading—is just about a third of GDP, compared with more than 100% in developed economies. Less than 15% of household financial assets are invested in the stockmarket: which is why soaring shares did little to boost consumption and crashing prices will do little to hurt it. Many stocks were bought on debt, and the unwinding of these loans helps explain why the government has been unable to stop the rout. But this financing is not a systemic risk; it is just about 1.5% of total assets in the banking system.


Read the rest here:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/07/chinas-stockmarket-crash
 
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I'm not a Republican fan but I have to blame Clinton for the housing mess (although he just signs things and not actually writes them).
1995 Community Reinvestment Act - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This basically told banks to loosen the rules on who could get a mortgage (ie unqualified people). SERIOUSLY BAD MOVE!

1999 Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This repealed an act that was implemented after the 1929 crash fiasco that said commercial banks should not be in the investment banking business.

Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This basically allowed credit default swaps from being highly scrutinized like other securities. SERIOUSLY BAD MOVE!


got ya. I never really got into dept on it.
 
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Indian?? India did it?

293brs3.png


interesting to see how the Chinese market was in decline or stagnate for 4-5 years, and then boom it explodes.

what happened?



I can't view threads in the China section.
Are you a stupid moron Indian? I'm calling you stupid Indian, read the post before you write anything stupid? It explode because the government intervention, government getting rich ok stupid Indian.
 
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Are you a stupid moron Indian? I'm calling you stupid Indian, read the post before you write anything stupid? It explode because the government intervention, government getting rich ok stupid Indian.

I'm not Indian :disagree: so who's the stupid moron now :wave:

are you Chinese or Pakistani who wishes he was Chinese :cool:
 
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nice, reminds of Bush drive for every American to own a house, and look how that turned out :lol:

if the housing bubble goes burst it's gonna get nasty :butcher:
lol, you're still trapped in 2008? Those savvy Chinese investors gobbled up mansions at that time selling for 40% discount. Their investment is worth 60% more than it was in 2008.

:lol:
 
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Are you a stupid moron Indian? I'm calling you stupid Indian, read the post before you write anything stupid? It explode because the government intervention, government getting rich ok stupid Indian.


We have a really pissed off dim sum here - apparently .

OT: Haven't been following chinese economy..it's news to me that there's a real estate slowdown as well.
 
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