A sound prediction on water shortage in the distant future will always remain an exercise of elusiveness and, to some extent, futility for the prime reason that the factors taken into account, when making such a prediction, are not fixed but rather variable. For the purposes of illustration, take the example where the present discontentment with the performance of the government in Gilgit Baltistan rapidly deteriorates to the extent of area-denial by the local populace to the Federal Government and, therefore, all development projects on the construction of dams in the area have to be put on hold indefinitely pending the outcome of an operation by the armed forces. The scenario however unlikely in the immediate future cannot be completely ruled out considering the pace at which political instability goes from manageable to outright apeshit. But because a comprehensive discussion to that effect would be largely academic and, thoroughly conjectural, I shall limit myself to the 3 points which you have enunciated:
1)The sedimentation of current reservoirs, particularly Mangla and Tarbela, have been the subject of debate since long before the construction on the reservoirs even began. Although sedimentation is a concern, I would not go so far as to suggest that it will cause a “dire water shortage” in the region. As a matter of fact, the ablative effects of the sediments on the turbines are of a greater concern than the thought of the local population going thirsty. Fortunately, for us, sedimentation is a factor which is manageable. The following were suggested, at the 70th Annual Session Proceedings of the Pakistan Engineering Congress as measures which may be employed to delay the onset of sedimentation
2) A major threat to Pakistan’s water security is the construction of Indian dams which quell the flow of the Indus, the Jhelum and the Chenab. It just happens to be so, by design, or perhaps just sheer bad luck, that all three of the rivers to the use of which Pakistan has almost-exclusive rights under the IWT flow through India before entering into Pakistan.
This map should put things into perspective:
As is evident from the map, 4 of the 6 rivers which form the gist of the entire IWT originate in India; namely the Jhelum, the Chenab, the Ravi and the Beas. The Indus and the Sutlej are the only two exceptions, originating instead from Chinese Tibet before flowing into India and the Pakistan. As you can see, if India were to abrogate the IWT today, Pakistan would be the only adverse affectee, as it would have absolute control over all the water flowing into Pakistan. True to their mettle India has pondered the devastating effect which any action to this effect would have on Pakistan and has spawned many a voice that has called for the treaty to abrogated. One such voice is that of Raghu Yadav (whom I don’t take very seriously):
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There have been plans in the past, before the Baghliar and the Kishanganga, the design and location of which have been of significant concern to successive Pakistani governments. If India were to abrogate the treaty today, Dr. Nayyar Adam sheds light on just two immediate projects which India would proceed to undertake:
For further insight into the matter please go through this brilliant paper by Dr. Shaheen Akhtar on the challenges faced by the IWT:
While on this point, it may also be appropriate to point out that one of the major reasons why Pakistan simply refuses to back away from claiming absolute title to the occupied territory of Kashmir is this, water security. At present none of the rivers are in our exclusive control, although as a nation our future depends on them - a very concerning position indeed.
3) Perhaps the single greatest threat to Pakistan’s water security is the prolific increase in population, and thus demand, which Pakistan has seen since the partition. The increase in population has significantly strained our current water resources and has catapulted the issue to the top of both the “Will-most-certainly-destroy-Pakistan” list and, thankfully, the incumbent government’s “Fix-this-now” list.
A rough idea of the magnitude of this concern can be taken from this article:
The Federal Minster for Planning has also been kind enough to grace us with these very concerning remarks too:
India
Mercifully for us, all has not been lost to the fire. In addition to the Planning Commission’s Vision 2025, which places utmost priority on the development of water resources and the management of current resources to maximize water usage and yield-volume, the Water and Power Development Authority also has a short-term plan titled Water Vision 2025. The Vision can be found on their website at:
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Constrained by time, I am unable to reproduce notable excerpts from the Vision into my post at present and, therefore, highly recommend a thorough perusal of the abovementioned document.
The Water Policy of the incumbent government, which is part and parcel of the Planning Commission's Vision 2025, can be found here:
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The foregoing serves to show, or at least should serve to show, that the future of Pakistan may not be all as grim as it appears to be. As should be clear, a delay in the construction of Bhasha dam will not fatal to the development of Pakistan.
