Govt moves to ‘cool down’ an ‘over heating’ economy

[Norwegian]

dollar at 170 inter bank

Good it means SBP is not doing any intervention

 

[blueazure]

PSX dumping 300 pts daily

@Desprado

ppl own you an apology

Good it means SBP is not doing any intervention

i think SBP has exhausted all options of intervention

 

[Desprado]

dollar at 170 inter bank

Open market and interbank it is 169. Bad optics and one direction that is why market has only dollar outflow, predictable devaluation, speculation, manipulation, and dollarization and investment outflows. Only FM is to be blamed and SBP is doing what they can do. Be ready for massive interest rate hike because Reza Baqir does not trust Tarin now.

 

[Norwegian]

PSX dumping 300 pts daily

@Desprado

ppl own you an apology


i think SBP has exhausted all options of intervention

Yes @Desprado we are sorry again. Please forgive us

Open market and interbank it is 169. Bad optics and one direction that is why market has only dollar outflow, predictable devaluation, speculation, manipulation, and dollarization and investment outflows. Only FM is to be blamed and SBP is doing what they can do. Be ready for massive interest rate hike because Reza Baqir does not trust Tarin now.

Best SBP doesn't intervene and let Shaukat Tareen swallow his own policies

 

[blueazure]

Yes @Desprado we are sorry again. Please forgive us ❤

mr @Norwegian, what to do now

is it too early to panic ?


i import medical equipment, all prices are up almost 30 %

 

[Desprado]

Yes @Desprado we are sorry again. Please forgive us ❤

Best SBP doesn't intervene and let Shaukat Tareen swallow his own policies

Tarin will take back PSX 40k under till October remember it is because uncertainty and clueless is the mother of evil in market. No plan at all what to do now.

 

[Hareeb]

Not enough jobs are produced but economy is already over heating. These scums keep doing experiments with the economy.
Well, it was bound to happen due side effects of expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. In addition, SBP intended to extend covid-relief package of 400+ billion to businesses. Thankfully, SBP has raised interest rate by 25 basic points but should have done it 3 months back.
Moreover, tight fiscal policy is needed, levy on petroleum products should be raised further in accordance with international prices.
Further more, Govt raised support price of wheat and other consumer staples to an unecessary level, should have kept in mind that though rural economy will grow, but it'd cause inflation due high demand of consumer discretionary products and high prices of consumer staples due agri policies and in both cases, end consumer will suffer.

 

[Desprado]

mr @Norwegian, what to do now

is it too early to panic ?


i import medical equipment, all prices are up almost 30 %

Market is done until Shaukat Tarin is removed. They know that this guy is a disaster in a making and changes statement like person changes it's clothes. I told in June that 2021-2022 budget will be over in October and now it is over in next week.

 

[Norwegian]

mr @Norwegian, what to do now

is it too early to panic ?


i import medical equipment, all prices are up almost 30 %

Sadly when dollar was down to 154 in May we got Shaukat Tareen as Finance Minister. The rest is history. Nothing can save Pakistan now from a very hard landing.

 

[Desprado]

Not enough jobs are produced but economy is already over heating. These scums keep doing experiments with the economy.
Well, it was bound to happen due side effects of expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. In addition, SBP intended to extend covid-relief package of 400+ billion to businesses. Thankfully, SBP has raised interest rate by 25 basic points but should have done it 3 months back.
Moreover, tight fiscal policy is needed, levy on petroleum products should be raised further in accordance with international prices.
Further more, Govt raised support price of wheat and other consumer staples to an unecessary level, should have kept in mind that though rural economy will grow, but it'd cause inflation due high demand of consumer discretionary products and high prices of consumer staples due agri policies and in both cases, end consumer will suffer.

Exactly and icing on the cake was to fix the prices like default countries does, delay IMF program and biggest dump move was from SBP was to force negative interest rate, which brought all problems forward at once. You nailed it.

The budget totally relied on import growth that was the hidden plan, which flopped and PMLN could have much PTI did in this matter.

 

[Norwegian]

Exactly and icing on the cake was to fix the prices like default countries does, delay IMF program and biggest dump move was from SBP was to force negative interest rate, which brought all problems forward at once. You nailed it.

The budget totally relied on import growth that was the hidden plan, which flopped and PMLN could have much PTI did in this matter.

Not enough jobs are produced but economy is already over heating. These scums keep doing experiments with the economy.
Well, it was bound to happen due side effects of expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. In addition, SBP intended to extend covid-relief package of 400+ billion to businesses. Thankfully, SBP has raised interest rate by 25 basic points but should have done it 3 months back.
Moreover, tight fiscal policy is needed, levy on petroleum products should be raised further in accordance with international prices.
Further more, Govt raised support price of wheat and other consumer staples to an unecessary level, should have kept in mind that though rural economy will grow, but it'd cause inflation due high demand of consumer discretionary products and high prices of consumer staples due agri policies and in both cases, end consumer will suffer.

This graph explains Shaukat Tareen walking talking disaster

 

[Desprado]

This graph explains Shaukat Tareen walking talking disaster View attachment 779620View attachment 779621

Curse for Pakistan economy.

I am very sad to be right that they had no plan for growth just relied on custom duty imports and import growth of consumption and it tells you that Imran Khan him self wasted on statement like CAD, devaluation, export growth and import. He had no plan for this budget and just wanted appese MNA, MPA's and his own followers, which backfired worse than badly.
Stock is down 450 points. Sad to be right about this guy.

 

[Rafael]

There is no crises YET no matter how wishful you maybe of manufacturing one. What you are seeing for last couple of months is ignorance of our markets and business community to how market based exchange rate works. The govt. realizes that there is crisis in the making and trying to avert it. This is a good sign.

PMLN waited for 2 years before they started depreciating rupee.

 

[Desprado]

There is no crises YET no matter how wishful you maybe of manufacturing one. What you are seeing for last couple of months is ignorance of our markets and business community to how market based exchange rate works. The govt. realizes that there is crisis in the making and trying to avert it. This is a good sign.

PMLN waited for 2 years before they started depreciating rupee.

No it is not and it makes government dumb and Hafez Shiek right.

It predicate it in June 2021 that this will happen and a normal like me can predict than what the use of FM education?

It happening because FDI is not coming due delay in IMF program, export did not increase at all, CAD 2.3 billion dollar in just 2 months, where FM mentioned in his budget speech and book that it will 2.3 billion dollar CAD will be done in whole FY 2022, Import growth, subsidy to importers, luxury item subsidy, forced negative interest rate, fake promises in the budget, and ADB, WB and AIIB delayed Pakistan loan due to delay in IMF program.

So you can say that the budget will be redo all over again in late October due to Budget 2022 has flopped because it 100% depends on import growth.

 

[Rafael]

No it is not and it makes government dumb and Hafez Shiek right.

It predicate it in June 2021 that this will happen and a normal like me can predict than what the use of FM education?

It happening because FDI is not coming due delay in IMF program, export did not increase at all, CAD 2.3 billion dollar in just 2 months, where FM mentioned in his budget speech and book that it will 2.3 billion dollar CAD will be done in whole FY 2022, Import growth, subsidy to importers, luxury item subsidy, forced negative interest rate, fake promises in the budget, and ADB, WB and AIIB delayed Pakistan loan due to delay in IMF program.

So you can say that the budget will be redo all over again in late October due to Budget 2022 has flopped because it 100% depends on import growth.

OK - You can believe whatever you want. Lets watch this closely and we will talk end of year In Shaa Allah.