Govt measures are HOPELESS, I am not optimistic on India: Jim Rogers

[East Asia United]

Govt measures are hopeless, I am not optimistic on India: Jim Rogers
By Biswajit Baruah & Baiju Kalesh, ET Bureau | 20 Aug, 2013, 08.00AM IST

Legendary Wall Street trader Jim Rogers says the measures taken by the Indian government and the Reserve Bank recently to improve the macro-economic sentiment and arrest the fall of rupee have not yielded any results and have instead made the situation worse.

Singapore-based Rogers, who is chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests Inc, says the government just doesn't understand economics. "Debt is rising and the balance of trade is going higher. The government is making more mistakes and that's not going to solve the problem," he said in an interview to ET.

Edited excerpts:

The government and the Reserve Bank have announced a slew of reforms and policies this year to revive economic growth. What is your view on these measures?

I have been shorting India due to many reasons. The currency is in a mess, the country has very high debt, and debt-to-GDP ratio is going up every year. I am very concerned about the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit situation. The measures taken by the government are hopeless, they are making things worse. The measures for exchange control are bad and the restrictions on gold are making things worse.

How ferocious is the current bear market?

India currently has serious problems, and I am not optimistic about India. India is a very exciting country to visit, but as far as stock markets is concerned, I am not hopeful.

The rupee touched a new low of 63 on Monday. Do you think it can test 65 levels?

I am short on India because of the currency, and one of the reasons why I am making money is because the currency has gone down. I don't know what's going to happen to the world or to the Indian government. But I am judging Indian markets every day, every week, every month. So far, the government is making more mistakes and that's not going to solve the problem. Debt is going higher and the balance of trade is going higher as well. The Indian government just doesn't just understand economics.

Your prophecies on commodities have always been true. Which are the commodities you are currently betting on?

I always like things when things are depressed. I would look at sugar as an opportunity, as it is down 75% from its all-time high. I own gold and silver but at the moment I am not buying gold or silver. I think there would be a chance to buy gold or silver sometime next year. India is the largest buyer of gold, and when the largest buyer of gold stops purchasing from global markets, there will be a change in the demand-supply scenario.

India seems to have lost the opportunity to benefit from falling commodity prices and now with currency depreciation, commodity prices have become expensive. Where have we gone wrong in our policies?

The government has made so many mistakes, which has led the country into this position. Whatever happens now, it is not going to help India. If commodity prices go down, it will not help because the currency is going down. The government should realise that India has made mistakes, and it should start correcting those mistakes. The necessary actions may be painful for a while, but if you delay things, one has to pay a price.

There are reports that the US 1Federal Reserve may start winding up its stimulus programme sometime soon. How negative is the sentiment among investors globally?

I am worried about the global economy because this is all artificial money. Things are looking better because the world is printing money. All the major central banks including the US, Japan, UK are printing money. This is all artificial, and this is going to end badly, when it does. Nobody so far had success by printing money.

There are fears of a sovereign downgrade for India...

I don't pay any attention to rating agencies as they do not make money for you, so why should you pay attention to them? If they file any downgrades, then you may find bottoms in markets, may be that would be a time to buy again.

We have serious problems on the currency front and there are concerns over rising current account deficit . What would be your advice to policy makers?

I would make the currency convertible, open up trade and investments, so that people can freely buy and sell in the markets, whether it's in the stock market, bond market or commodity market. I would cut the deficit and the government spending in India. I would start paying debt. I would revive agriculture. The government has absurd restrictions in agriculture. India has been, and should be, one of the great agriculture nations of the world. It has land, soil, water everything, if you see the population, there are very smart Indians. There are enormous regulations in the country. Somebody should get rid of these absurd regulations, absurd bureaucracy, and start all over again, so that India can be a great nation again.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/govt-measures-are-hopeless-i-am-not-optimistic-on-india-jim-rogers/articleshow/21924773.cms

 

[Lightningbolt]

Indian economy is a facade. It was built on debt and deficits and a massive Ponzi scheme. The bubble has burst and the Indian economic miracle has finished.

It was good while it lasted.

 

[East Asia United]

Indian economy is a facade. It was built on debt and deficits and a massive Ponzi scheme. The bubble has burst and the Indian economic miracle has finished.

It was good while it lasted.

Yes, it was good for the 15 years that it lasted. Now play time is over, the easy gains have been accomplished, and Indians should have been progressing up the technical and economic ladder. Unfortunately, Indians don't seem to even have the brains to understand that there are problems in their economy in the first place, let alone how to rectify them.

It's time to push back that supah-powah boys! (yet again)

India supah-powah year 2070!

 

[East Asia United]

India, a failing supah-powah

 

[walle]

India was going to be a superpower in 2030, one set back later, it was 2050, now another set back it has become 2070. All of this in the short time frame of 5 years.

I wonder what will the next revised super power date for India.

 

[shuttler]

Lower and lower

another record low for the falling rupees today, now spot @63.37 which rallies a bit from a day low of 63.44 to the dollar!

 

[chhota bheem]

This goverment is useless , i think till the next elections which is less than a year away ,nothing is going to change and why are some chinese so critical what about the reports about chinese economy ,when they come its propaganda ,we understand our economy is bad and have been criticising the government for misgovernence which you cannt do so chill of.

 

[Srinivas]

There are Wall street traders who lost their face after investing in Chinese market which lost close to 700 billion in four years.

The measures are to aide local industries, US guys can STFU, we need our economy to transform into self sufficient and export driven. We dont need to aid foreign investors to reap benefits of Indian market.

 

[Guynextdoor2]

Though in general I agree with ROgers, but the fact is partial convertibility actually helped India during the last asian financial crisis.

 

[fast]

India is hopeless.

 

[faithfulguy]

Rogers and his buddy Soros are selling all to short the Indian rupee. Though rupee is a controlled currency, its still falling like a hot cake.

 

[ranjeet]

this govt. itself is hopeless, politicians are busy looting this country.

 

[+4vsgorillas-Apebane]

There really is only one trick left but wont be ready until 2030.
The government should bank all hope on the white slave initiative.

 

[Fattyacids]

Govt measures are hopeless, I am not optimistic on India: Jim Rogers By Biswajit Baruah & Baiju Kalesh, ET Bureau | 20 Aug, 2013, 08.00AM IST

No, no, do not trust Jim Rogers, he has a personal vendetta against India.
0.33 seconds

His wife felt the power of India.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

No, no, do not trust Jim Rogers, he has a personal vendetta against India.
0.33 seconds

His wife felt the power of India.

WTF... that is messed up...

But still, he is an investor. And as an investor, the only important thing is ROI - Return on Investment.

Regardless of anything else, he would only bet against India if he thought it could make him more profit.