Govt eyes fast recovery to 8.2pc GDP growth next year

[Black_cats]

Govt eyes fast recovery to 8.2pc GDP growth next year

ECONOMY
Abul Kashem
30 May, 2020, 08:50 pm
Last modified: 30 May, 2020, 09:30 pm

The government plans on setting a target of an 8.2 percent GDP growth for the fiscal year 2020-2021 in the hope that the coronavirus situation will come under control by September this year and the economy will see a quick recovery thereafter.

Besides, the rate of inflation is likely to be set at 5.4 percent for the next fiscal, in anticipation of a normal supply of commodities and a stable market.

According to officials of the Finance Division, who are involved in preparing the national budget, the government expects the pandemic to come under control in the first quarter of the coming fiscal and the private sector that has come to a grinding halt due to the virus will then resume production at full throttle to tide over their losses.

Works on various projects taken up across the country under the annual development programme of the government are also expected to get into full gear by that time.

They point out that economic activities in various countries witness a V-shaped recovery after a pandemic or a disaster. Iraq attained an 8.5 percent growth in its GDP (gross domestic product) in the year following the Iraq War, they mention, adding that they are expecting an 8.2 percent growth in the Bangladesh economy in the next fiscal since the growth rate is going to be low in the current year.

In a V-shaped recovery, an economy suffers a sharp decline, and recovers quickly and strongly after that.

In an interview with The Business Standard in mid-April this year, Finance Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal also voiced similar expectations. He said the country's economy would regain its pre-pandemic pace within a couple of months of the coronavirus outbreak being quelled.

The general public, including businessmen in the country, had their plans of recovering from the pandemic fallout, he added.

The government in the national budget for the current fiscal has also set an 8.2 percent GDP growth target. Finance ministry officials say the economy could see higher growth than the targeted one if there were no coronavirus outbreak.

All economic activities have practically been in a standstill for the last two months of general holidays starting from the last week of March. The government, therefore, now predicts a 5.25-5.35 percent growth in the country's GDP this fiscal. The revised budget for the ongoing fiscal will include such a target.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also forecasts that the Bangladesh economy will take a U-turn after the coronavirus pandemic is over. According to estimates by the IMF, Bangladesh's GDP growth in FY2020 will be 2 percent – the lowest rate after 1988, while in FY2021 the growth rate will jump to 9.5 percent.

However, the World Bank has projected a 2-3 percent GDP growth for Bangladesh in the current fiscal, which it predicts will fall further to 1.2-2.9 percent in the following fiscal. The WB also predicts that although Bangladesh's economy will turn around in FY2022, the rate of GDP growth will still remain below 4 percent.

Bangladesh attained an 8.15 percent GDP growth in FY2019, which was the highest among Asian nations that year.

While commenting on their estimates about the inflation rate for the next fiscal, the finance division officials say they expect that fuel prices will remain stable in the global market next year, which will also help to keep the global commodity market stable.

Besides, the government presumes that the production and supply of agricultural and industrial goods will be normal in the domestic market.

https://tbsnews.net/economy/govt-eyes-82-gdp-growth-54-inflation-next-fiscal-86836

 

[bluesky]

We better not go after prophesizing the future. Nothing big will happen unless the world has recovered from the pandemic. Better we seek ways how to survive for the next few months. Govt must tackle the situation by arranging Ration Shops for the unemployed and very poor. I welcome IMF extended $750 million loan to BD at this critical moment.

 

[nahtanbob]

this assumes no major outbreak of covad virus

 

[Pandora]

Corona is here to stay for next 2-3 years with us seeing repeated outbreaks granted we can control current outbreak which is unlikely bcz of rate it is spreading. If Bangladesh can achieve that much growth next year then entire world should adopt their miracle model for gdp growth. Consumer power has shrunk to a point in west and US that such a miracle recovery is not possible for another 3-4 years granted we get rid of corona by then in first place.

 

[Turingsage]

Predictions about growth in ANY economy is a game of opinion and speculation based on very incomplete information extrapolated with unknown and unknowable parameters.
ANYONE claiming to know the future growth is guessing at best and lying at worst

 

[Bilal9]

Predictions about growth in ANY economy is a game of opinion and speculation based on very incomplete information extrapolated with unknown and unknowable parameters.
ANYONE claiming to know the future growth is guessing at best and lying at worst

You are talking about India now? Does ANY economy include India I hope?

These are just political balderdash offered for public consumption in Bangladesh.

Some of us take it with a grain of salt.

 

[Destranator]

8% sounds monotonous now. Why not try 11 or 12%?

As long as BBS can remain operational we will recover in no time.

 

[Turingsage]

Does ANY economy include India I hope?

Of course it does. Why do you think I emphasis the word ANY. It means ANY. We ( the world) are in a place economically we never have been before. How this unravels is pure guesswork

 

[Stannis Baratheon]

And the cost, it's the lives of thousands. The country has opened its economy while we are at the worst stage of the virus. Death toll similar to Brazil will soon happen.

 

[DalalErMaNodi]

And the cost, it's the lives of thousands. The country has opened its economy while we are at the worst stage of the virus. Death toll similar to Brazil will soon happen.

The government has their hands tied, if they extend the shut down people will die from Corona and economy will get irreparably damaged.

It's either starvation + Corona or just Corona. Government made the only right choice.

 

[Stannis Baratheon]

The government has their hands tied, if they extend the shut down people will die from Corona and economy will get irreparably damaged.

It's either starvation + Corona or just Corona. Government made the only right choice.

The government had plenty of choice. It could have not lifted the shutdown right near the Eid but they did. It was because they wanted people to spend during that time but they didn't. Furthermore, government could have done things like, rent freeze so that people don't lose whatever savings they had paying rent but they didn't.

Hasina don't care about people but knows she has to pay the thieves that are in her party to maintain power against any civil uprising.

 

[UKBengali]

And the cost, it's the lives of thousands. The country has opened its economy while we are at the worst stage of the virus. Death toll similar to Brazil will soon happen.

Highly unlikely the death toll will reach anywhere near Brazil's as BD has 3 major advantages:

1. Warmer and more humid weather than most of Brazil, especially the major populated areas of Brazil
2. Younger population
3. Less obesity


The lockdown to all extents and purposes is no longer there in BD(not that it was ever that strict anyway) and the virus is spreading exponentially through the population of BD now, but it is what it is now and the advantages of BD will keep the death toll relatively low.

 

[Stannis Baratheon]

Highly unlikely the death toll will reach anywhere near Brazil's as BD has 3 major advantages:

1. Warmer and more humid weather than most of Brazil, especially the major populated areas of Brazil
2. Younger population
3. Less obesity


The lockdown to all extents and purposes is no longer there in BD(not that it was ever that strict anyway) and the virus is spreading exponentially through the population of BD now, but it is what it is now and the advantages of BD will keep the death toll relatively low.

Heat seems to have very little impact on coronovirus. Just look at Iran. Furthermore the government healthcare system is riddled with corruption and lack of funding. There is no way they are prepared to handle such huge amount of patients.

 

[UKBengali]

Heat seems to have very little impact on coronovirus. Just look at Iran. Furthermore the government healthcare system is riddled with corruption and lack of funding. There is no way they are prepared to handle such huge amount of patients.

In case you are not aware, Iran is not hot all year round - the capital Tehran can get really cold in the winter months.Tehran's average daily high only gets above 20C in April.

They reached their peak of of infections in late March.
The rate of infections is going up now but that can only be expected as lockdown measures are lifted, but the deaths have not gone up in around 6 weeks. One of the factors is more than likely that in the hot temperatures of Iran prevailing during the last 6 weeks, people are getting less of a viral load when they are getting infected.

Heat and humidity by itself will not stop people getting infected but it reduces the risk as the virus degrades quicker the higher the temperature and the more humid the air.

BD healthcare system being riddled with corruption is not much different than most other countries. Even here in the UK there is a lot of corruption going on, although less than in BD.

Let us see what happens by the start of next month as the virus is spreading exponentially in BD now. Deaths have gone up in the last two weeks but we are still "only" looking at 20-30 deaths a day on average - far less than the 1000 a day in Brazil.

Science says heat/humidity, young age and thinness are very effective to fight against the virus and so the probability is that BD will get off relatively lightly.

 

[Stannis Baratheon]

In case you are not aware, Iran is not hot all year round - the capital Tehran can get really cold in the winter months.Tehran's average daily high only gets above 20C in April.

They reached their peak of of infections in late March.
The rate of infections is going up now but that can only be expected as lockdown measures are lifted, but the deaths have not gone up in around 6 weeks. One of the factors is more than likely that in the hot temperatures of Iran prevailing during the last 6 weeks, people are getting less of a viral load when they are getting infected.

Heat and humidity by itself will not stop people getting infected but it reduces the risk as the virus degrades quicker the higher the temperature and the more humid the air.

BD healthcare system being riddled with corruption is not much different than most other countries. Even here in the UK there is a lot of corruption going on, although less than in BD.

Let us see what happens by the start of next month as the virus is spreading exponentially in BD now. Deaths have gone up in the last two weeks but we are still "only" looking at 20-30 deaths a day on average - far less than the 1000 a day in Brazil.

Science says heat/humidity, young age and thinness are very effective to fight against the virus and so the probability is that BD will get off relatively lightly.

In order to confirm someone dying of the virus, you need to test them or they already had it. In Bangadesh, it's rarely done on dead and the actual death toll is still much higher. As for healthcare, UK can still service the NHS very well, whereas in Bangladesh, most government medical facilities can't be even called such.