Govnt to target 7% GDP growth rate by 2015

[farhan_9909]

7% growth rate requires 30% of of the GDP to be invested back in the economy. Currently PK has only 10% investment scenario.
If we take 230 billion as PK GDP then it needs 69 billion dollar invested per year to achieve 7% growth rate. Its a daunting task for sure but not impossible but only a miracle will get you there by 2015.



Economy simply does not grow only by mere dreaming. It needs investment. Domestic savings for PK is in dismal condition. Only foreign aid and FDI can give you that kind of boost. With USA economy is getting stronger there is very little chance that PK will be receiving any hot fund soon.

If we put off the dreaming aside.
Than as projected Pak will grow 4.4% next year.
About 5.5% in 2015 and either in 2016-17 they will clock close to 7%.

(NOTE:Even though i dont like this govt but still i admire there economic capabilities even in the past or now..so in the 5years time period they indeed can get upto 7% growth if they remain the same for the 5 years like they are now)
May be even 8% if they remain like they are now.

PAK GDP this year is 252.6Billion dollars.

 

[TopCat]

If we put off the dreaming aside.
Than as projected Pak will grow 4.4% next year.
About 5.5% in 2015 and either in 2016-17 they will clock close to 7%.

(NOTE:Even though i dont like this govt but still i admire there economic capabilities even in the past or now..so in the 5years time period they indeed can get upto 7% growth if they remain the same for the 5 years like they are now)
May be even 8% if they remain like they are now.

PAK GDP this year is 252.6Billion dollars.

Well, can you elaborate how will you address the investment scenario!! Your domestic savings are always in 10-13% mark historically so despite having all other problems sorted out you cant invest more than 10-13% from domestic source. Can you collect more than 40 billion dollar as FDI and foreign aid to get to the sustainable 7% growth rate???

Its pure maths...

 

[My-Analogous]

They have done better than that in their past tenure. Yes, Pak is suffering from worst energy crisis ever, but it is still possible.

Tell me how? don't just say something which you can't defend. Pakistan first have to solve energy crisis and its will add 1.5% more in current GDP rate that is 3.5 so it will be 5% (which will be possible if Pakistan complete its energy project in fast track matter of 3 coming years) and when Pakistan complete that project it will be 2016 so it will already cross 2015. Please prove me wrong

 

[farhan_9909]

Well, can you elaborate how will you address the investment scenario!! Your domestic savings are always in 10-13% mark historically so despite having all other problems sorted out you cant invest more than 10-13% from domestic source. Can you collect more than 40 billion dollar as FDI and foreign aid to get to the sustainable 7% growth rate???

Its pure maths...

Well we had a growth rate of upto 8% and beyond last decade.

It is achievable under this govt

 

[TopCat]

Well we had a growth rate of upto 8% and beyond last decade.

It is achievable under this govt

Not sustainable.. Mushi got debt relief which were instantly diverted to ADP, and you got FDI when USA economy was not faring well. Now even India is struggling to stop flight of FDI from their economy as FFI's are going back to USA for investment. Besides you are running on huge current account deficit and your ratings are not that good. You also almost exhausted IMF and WB. Even though sound harsh but getting even 6% growth rate for PK at this current scenario will be a miracle. India is facing the same scenario now as both India and PK followed the same economic policy and concluded the same result.

 

[farhan_9909]

Not sustainable.. Mushi got debt relief which were instantly diverted to ADP, and you got FDI when USA economy was not faring well. Now even India is struggling to stop flight of FDI from their economy as FFI's are going back to USA for investment. Besides you are running on huge current account deficit and your ratings are not that good. You also almost exhausted IMF and WB. Even though sound harsh but getting even 6% growth rate for PK at this current scenario will be a miracle. India is facing the same scenario now as both India and PK followed the same economic policy and concluded the same result.

anything above 5% is Good for Pakistan

Seems like you know alot about economics?

Can i ask you something regarding Indian GDP growth rate and annual increase in GDP between 2003-07

In 2004-05 India gdp growth rate was around 7-8% but there GDP grew by more than 80-90billions dollars each year.

From 505billions dollars to 590billion dollars.while next year again close to 100billion increase?when a 100billion increase would equal to almost 20% growth rate for a 500billion dollar GDP?how is this possible

In Pakistan case

Pak GDP was 210-11billion dollars in 2011.we achieved growth rate of 3.7% in 2012 but the GDP increased to 230-233Billion dollars.

Yet again in 2013 we acheived a growth rate of 3.6% but the GDP now is 248-252billion dollars..or according to some other site even 252-264billion dollars.

But according to Official sources it was around 24.9trillion pkr which is about 250billion dollars?

so how is this possible?incase of both india and pakistan..similar is the case with china?
the increase in GDP is much more than the Achieved economic growth rate?whyy?

 

[TopCat]

anything above 5% is Good for Pakistan

Seems like you know alot about economics?

Can i ask you something regarding Indian GDP growth rate and annual increase in GDP between 2003-07

In 2004-05 India gdp growth rate was around 7-8% but there GDP grew by more than 80-90billions dollars each year.

From 505billions dollars to 590billion dollars.while next year again close to 100billion increase?when a 100billion increase would equal to almost 20% growth rate for a 500billion dollar GDP?how is this possible

In Pakistan case

Pak GDP was 210-11billion dollars in 2011.we achieved growth rate of 3.7% in 2012 but the GDP increased to 230-233Billion dollars.

Yet again in 2013 we acheived a growth rate of 3.6% but the GDP now is 248-252billion dollars..or according to some other site even 252-264billion dollars.

But according to Official sources it was around 24.9trillion pkr which is about 250billion dollars?

so how is this possible?incase of both india and pakistan..similar is the case with china?
the increase in GDP is much more than the Achieved economic growth rate?whyy?

For that to understand you need to know the definition of nominal GDP growth and real GDP growth rate.

Real GDP growth rate = Nominal GDP growth - inflation

For instance last year Pakistans GDP grew by say 15% which is nominal. But for Real GDP growth rate that you saw 3.6% is the rate which is adjusted after deducting the inflation and in this case 11.4%.

15-11.4 = 3.6


Now even though you see a inflated GDP figure of 250 billion dollar, which will be adjusted later when your Rupee value will be adjusted against dollar as it has to. With inflation going that high, and real GDP growth is so low, your Rupee must be devalued after some time to adjust your trade with outside world.

To make you understand better, an average person's income increase by 15% but there was inflation of 11.6% which made his real income increase only 3.6%. Same is the case for Pakistan as a whole.

 

[farhan_9909]

For that to understand you need to know the definition of nominal GDP growth and real GDP growth rate.

Real GDP growth rate = Nominal GDP growth - inflation

For instance last year Pakistans GDP grew by say 15% which is nominal. But for Real GDP growth rate that you saw 3.6% is the rate which is adjusted after deducting the inflation and in this case 11.4%.

15-11.4 = 3.6


Now even though you see a inflated GDP figure of 250 billion dollar, which will be adjusted later when your Rupee value will be adjusted against dollar as it has to. With inflation going that high, and real GDP growth is so low, your Rupee must be devalued after some time to adjust your trade with outside world.

To make you understand better, an average person's income increase by 15% but there was inflation of 11.6% which made his real income increase only 3.6%. Same is the case for Pakistan as a whole.

Good

But isnt this still Good for Pakistan?

Because if this continue so and the GDP growth rate is also increased to let say 6%.even by this Speed the Pak GDP can very much possibly reach close to 500billion dollars in 2020.

isnt it?
Though i think the inflation has reduced alot last year.to as low as 6%.

 

[TopCat]

Good

But isnt this still Good for Pakistan?

Because if this continue so and the GDP growth rate is also increased to let say 6%.even by this Speed the Pak GDP can very much possibly reach close to 500billion dollars in 2020.

isnt it?
Though i think the inflation has reduced alot last year.to as low as 6%.

No you cant reach to 500 billion rather you may come back to 200 billion mark if your real GDP rate is that low. Even though you see the size of your economy growing in shorter term, your currency going to collapse after some time. If rupee falls to 130 mark then your GDP figure will come down to the level where you started.

Its good that inflation came down and 6% is healthy. Now PK need to focus on keeping the real growth rate above 5% when population growth rate is above 2.5% (not sure).

 

[farhan_9909]

No you cant reach to 500 billion rather you may come back to 200 billion mark if your real GDP rate is that low. Even though you see the size of your economy growing in shorter term, your currency going to collapse after some time. If rupee falls to 130 mark then your GDP figure will come down to the level where you started.

Its good that inflation came down and 6% is healthy. Now PK need to focus on keeping the real growth rate above 5% when population growth rate is above 2.5% (not sure).

Well Rupee will eventually fall upto 104-05 atleast till june next year.
Growth rate beyond 5% would be achieved in 2015.considering that if GDP next year grow by 4.5%

I want atleast our GDP to reach 500billion dollars by 2020.

 

[TopCat]

Well Rupee will eventually fall upto 104-05 atleast till june next year.
Growth rate beyond 5% would be achieved in 2015.considering that if GDP next year grow by 4.5%

I want atleast our GDP to reach 500billion dollars by 2020.

PK has the potential to become a trillion dollar economy, time frame for that will depend on some hard work and right policy. Not easy for any govt as there were a lot of damage already done and never in the history of PK, it took the hardship to work on the very foundation of the economy.

 

[hassan346]

7% is nothing we need atleast 10 to 12 % growth

 

[Al Bhatti]

If possible then good, but too much optimisim has painful results

Pakistanis are good at it, always.

 

[A1Kaid]

7% is nothing we need atleast 10 to 12 % growth

7% is really substantial growth, 10-12% is record breaking growth, AFAIK in 1970 Pakistan reported a 11% GDP growth. However, a 7% GDP growth rate is healthy and optimal for Pakistan's aims.

 

[hassan346]

7% is really substantial growth, 10-12% is record breaking growth, AFAIK in 1970 Pakistan reported a 11% GDP growth. However, a 7% GDP growth rate is healthy and optimal for Pakistan's aims.

its not as most of asian countries are having better growth like double digit growth or close to double digit growth .. in 2004 to 2006 we have seen growth at 9 % but we couldnt sustain that rate