Government launches ‘Mother of Humanity’ award

[Nilgiri]

Although I stated the total value will be $21 billion the report below says that the govt claims that it will be $18.23 billion with interest, and the period of payment is 28 years, not 20 years that I said. So, paying $6 billion extra is nothing for the BCL brats here. But, it is a very large money.

Moreover, nuclear plants are not needed for a poor country like BD where our main export earning is done by the labor of women workforce. And with $18 billion Bd could have built 16,000 MW worth of other types of power plants. Rooppur decision is a shame, ধার করিয়া ঘী ভাত খাওয়া।

http://energybangla.com/rooppur-cost-18-23b-with-interest/

Like @Mage said, the costs of operation offset the high capital costs of nuclear somewhat.

You can look into "LCOE" (levelized cost of electricity) for each source of power that basically amortises the capital and operating + maintenance + all other costs for full expected lifetime of the unit.

Nuclear and coal using this are roughly the same LCOE (95 - 100 dollars/MWh) in the current timeframe. Both will hold at this level for the future more or less given they have peaked technologically mostly (nuclear may have a breakthrough with newer cycles like Thorium and liquid salts and the big fusion dream etc....but of course has to be seen.....coal even with "clean" coal efficiency improvement is basically as good as it will ever be with the thermodynamic return)

Wind and Natural gas are in the mid 70s....though wind is expected to come down to the 60s and even 50s in few years time.

PV Solar is in the 80s right now and expected to decrease to the 60s in a few years time.

The problem for nuclear in BD case is its the first time project, so its LCOE cost as you can see is obviously lot higher (I took these numbers from US/Europe projections - they obviously have economies of scale to use)...so yah BD could have got a lot better deal on more conventional (and improving) tech like combination of gas (for base load) and solar PV +wind (for ramp/local loads).

For nuclear you need massive strategic plan for it to really make any sense....not just do it "just because".

 

[UKBengali]

Like @Mage said, the costs of operation offset the high capital costs of nuclear somewhat.

You can look into "LCOE" (levelized cost of electricity) for each source of power that basically amortises the capital and operating + maintenance + all other costs for full expected lifetime of the unit.

Nuclear and coal using this are roughly the same LCOE (95 - 100 dollars/MWh) in the current timeframe. Both will hold at this level for the future more or less given they have peaked technologically mostly (nuclear may have a breakthrough with newer cycles like Thorium and liquid salts and the big fusion dream etc....but of course has to be seen.....coal even with "clean" coal efficiency improvement is basically as good as it will ever be with the thermodynamic return)

Wind and Natural gas are in the mid 70s....though wind is expected to come down to the 60s and even 50s in few years time.

PV Solar is in the 80s right now and expected to decrease to the 60s in a few years time.

The problem for nuclear in BD case is its the first time project, so its LCOE cost as you can see is obviously lot higher (I took these numbers from US/Europe projections - they obviously have economies of scale to use)...so yah BD could have got a lot better deal on more conventional (and improving) tech like combination of gas (for base load) and solar PV +wind (for ramp/local loads).

For nuclear you need massive strategic plan for it to really make any sense....not just do it "just because".

Earth to Nilgiri......Anyone there?

BD has already stated that it will build another nuclear plant by 2030. After that even more nuclear power plants will be built.

http://www.newagebd.net/article/49696/feasibility-study-for-2nd-nuclear-power-plant-begins

 

[Nilgiri]

Earth to Nilgiri......Anyone there?

BD has already stated that it will build another nuclear plant by 2030. After that even more nuclear power plants will be built.

http://www.newagebd.net/article/49696/feasibility-study-for-2nd-nuclear-power-plant-begins

Anything you count on just one hand this late in the energy game is stupid (with much better options and opportunity cost elsewhere), especially for a LDC with very tiny technology absorption capability.

 

[UKBengali]

Anything you count on just one hand this late in the energy game is stupid (with much better options and opportunity cost elsewhere), especially for a LDC with very tiny technology absorption capability.

And what "better" option does a small country like BD have for clean energy apart from nuclear power?

 

[bluesky]

And what "better" option does a small country like BD have for clean energy apart from nuclear power?

Why should BD go for clean energy by paying billions and billions of dollar when its sky is already engulfed with smoke/smog from India and China? Bangladesh could have opted for other cheap fuels for power production. A $12.6 billion could have built other types of power plants with a combined capacity of at least 10,000 MW. Add another $6 billion for interest payment. It is equivalent to another 5,000 MW making the total 15,000 MW. Compare this with the Rooppur 2,400 MW.

Why not coal as the feed? Even India has been producing a very large amount of power from coal. Why not Bangladesh with a vast coal reserve in its NW? Thing is the ignorant BD politicians have peasant background and want to show-off money by building something stupid. They are good at only putting the cart before the horse. A similar thing happened also in the Teesta Barrage. People have simplistic peasant mind.

Utility power in India

Installed Capacity as on Thermal Coal(MW) Nuclear (MW)

31-Mar-2012 112,022 4,780
31 Mar 2017 192,163 6,780
31 Mar 2018 197,171 6,780

 

[UKBengali]

Why should BD go for clean energy by paying billions and billions of dollar when its sky is already engulfed with smoke/smog from India and China? Bangladesh could have opted for other cheap fuels for power production. A $12.6 billion could have built other types of power plants with a combined capacity of at least 10,000 MW. Add another $6 billion for interest payment. It is equivalent to another 5,000 MW making the total 15,000 MW. Compare this with the Rooppur 2,400 MW.

Why not coal as the feed? Even India has been producing a very large amount of power from coal. Why not Bangladesh with a vast coal reserve in its NW? Thing is the ignorant BD politicians have peasant background and want to show-off money by building something stupid. They are good at only putting the cart before the horse. A similar thing happened also in the Teesta Barrage. People have simplistic peasant mind.

Utility power in India

Installed Capacity as on Thermal Coal(MW) Nuclear (MW)

31-Mar-2012 112,022 4,780
31 Mar 2017 192,163 6,780
31 Mar 2018 197,171 6,780

So just add to the air pollution and make it worse?

Dude, you aware that over the lifetime of a nuclear power plant, the cost is the same as gas or coal due to much cheaper fuel costs?

 

[bluesky]

Are you aware that "life-cycle" cost of nuclear and fossil fuel plants are the same?

Stupid son of E*nstein, give me the figures showing the cost-effectiveness of nuclear power plants when they cost $18 billion with a production capacity of a tiny 2,400 MW. Do not try to pretend as if you are the father of Leibniz please when you do not know even the basics of Math. Instead of distorting the reality come up with figures to show your statement is mathematically true.

 

[Nilgiri]

Stupid son of E*nstein, give me the figures showing the cost-effectiveness of nuclear power plants when they cost $18 billion with a production capacity of a tiny 2,400 MW. Do not try to pretend as if you are the father of Leibniz please when you do not know even the basics of Math. Instead of distorting the reality come up with figures to show your statement is mathematically true.

When its costs 18 billion, yes its a problem.

When you have realised industries and capacities of scale (and an actual strategic goal regarding it)....then the cost will be much less (since savings will come with time).

It is not correct to just use 2400 MW as the comparison though (with say the same MW cost of say coal) given the operational costs (fuel etc) which apply to coal much more than nuclear.

With nuclear, you put the fuel in right at the start and it very rarely needs to be refuelled. Hence the high start up cost....but over time its operation is cheaper than coal (which needs constant supply of the fuel and all the logistics thats needed with that).

That's why nuclear and coal (long term final costs) are about the same final lifetime cost (per MWh produced) in developed countries and large developing countries (that have commited strategic program to it). Refer to my previous LCOE post.

But for smaller developing countries, like I have said, nuclear power is best avoided....there are much better LCOE technologies for both base (say natural gas which is also very clean compared to coal) and ramp (solar, wind) loads.

In fact why does BD not just simply go for a Natural Gas driven economy (for base load)? Low pollution (no particulates like coal), you can use both local production and also import from variety of suppliers competing with each other now (Middle East, Russia, North America etc). Loans for Natural Gas projects are also quite easier to get (and get many to compete to provide it to you) because its considered a lot cleaner technology than coal and does not have the stigma of nuclear (which you can only negotiate with provider of the technology).

 

[UKBengali]

When its costs 18 billion, yes its a problem.

When you have realised industries and capacities of scale (and an actual strategic goal regarding it)....then the cost will be much less (since savings will come with time).

It is not correct to just use 2400 MW as the comparison though (with say the same MW cost of say coal) given the operational costs (fuel etc) which apply to coal much more than nuclear.

With nuclear, you put the fuel in right at the start and it very rarely needs to be refuelled. Hence the high start up cost....but over time its operation is cheaper than coal (which needs constant supply of the fuel and all the logistics thats needed with that).

That's why nuclear and coal (long term final costs) are about the same final lifetime cost (per MWh produced) in developed countries and large developing countries (that have commited strategic program to it). Refer to my previous LCOE post.

But for smaller developing countries, like I have said, nuclear power is best avoided....there are much better LCOE technologies for both base (say natural gas which is also very clean compared to coal) and ramp (solar, wind) loads.

In fact why does BD not just simply go for a Natural Gas driven economy (for base load)? Low pollution (no particulates like coal), you can use both local production and also import from variety of suppliers competing with each other now (Middle East, Russia, North America etc). Loans for Natural Gas projects are also quite easier to get (and get many to compete to provide it to you) because its considered a lot cleaner technology than coal and does not have the stigma of nuclear (which you can only negotiate with provider of the technology).

BD is a large developing country that wants to build it's knowledge in the nuclear sector.

This plant is the first step and another will follow by 2030.

Can I ask that you do some basic research before posting?

 

[Nilgiri]

BD is a large developing country

I meant it in the sense of capacity/capability (rather than raw population size) which BD has next to none in the field (or even fields several tiers below it). Sorry this is a stupid white elephant project (and just one more reactor wont change anything about that...like I said if you can count follow up on one hand...its not the scale required to make sense even long term).

It makes much more sense for BD to develop an inherent industrial and research drive before saddling itself with nuclear energy program. If BD started this 10 - 20 years later when its (hopefully) not filing single digit numbers (or even zeroes) of patents at USPTO etc, there is some potential of basic sense that can be argued....till then its just a long term waste of money for optical feelz. We all know how much feelz matters to BD (esp BAL monkeys) over everything else....its why BD is in the wretched state its in to begin with.

 

[UKBengali]

I meant it in the sense of capacity/capability (rather than raw population size) which BD has next to none in the field (or even fields several tiers below it). Sorry this is a stupid white elephant project (and just one more reactor wont change anything about that...like I said if you can count follow up on one hand...its not the scale required to make sense even long term).

It makes much more sense for BD to develop an inherent industrial and research drive before saddling itself with nuclear energy program. If BD started this 10 - 20 years later when its (hopefully) not filing single digit numbers (or even zeroes) of patents at USPTO etc, there is some potential of basic sense that can be argued....till then its just a long term waste of money for optical feelz. We all know how much feelz matters to BD (esp BAL monkeys) over everything else....its why BD is in the wretched state its in to begin with.

You are not looking at this from BD perspective.

Nuclear plant is very affordable for BD(just recently HSBC projects 7.1% average GDP growth to 2030) and so paying back 1 billion dollars a year when the economy will be 1 trillion US dollars in 2027, when repayments actually start, is nothing at all. A booming BD economy can well afford many nuclear plants over the next 1-2 decades.

This plant will massively help BD develop expertise in nuclear power and the second one by 2030 will add to this. Over the next few decades BD will build up the knowledge till it gets to a point that it can design and build it's own nuclear power plants.

Only a complete idiot will think that BD government was incorrect to build an extremely modern and safe nuclear plant using Russian loan.

 

[Nilgiri]

Nuclear plant is very affordable for BD(just recently HSBS projects 7.1% average GDP growth to 2030) and so paying back 1 billion dollars a year when the economy will be 1 trillion US dollars in 2027, when repayments actually start, is nothing at all. A booming BD economy can well afford many nuclear plants over the next 1-2 decades.

Read up opportunity cost. Even going with your argument, if something is financially feasible (in some absolute sense), does not mean its the most appropriate economic choice for a certain X resource allocation (in the relative sense)....because the returns would be much higher with better choices and decisions.

This plant will massively help BD develop expertise in nuclear power and the second one by 2030 will add to this. Over the next few decades BD will build up the knowledge till it gets to a point that it can design and build it's own nuclear power plants.

Nope. VVER is itself a final iteration of a nuclear tech chain developed long ago by the industrial might of the USSR. You are basically only helping Russia, not yourself. Even if BD was fully capable of absorbing the technical know how (which is isn't because it would have required some level of quality foundational research 20 - 30 years ago itself that would be maturing now)....there is nothing to progress on it later strategically and at the scale required to make any difference (given there will be better nuclear technology and more general energy technology by then that the rest of the world has developed, that you will have 18 billion dollars less to indulge in because its sunk into a premium dead end).

A country with fewer patents and science output than Zambia (and stuck at that level quite depressingly, which is in itself a major fact check on BD so called GDDS inflation ridden growth rate) ought to stick to better strategic vision for actual returns on major capital allocations. Like say improving your research programs and output.... so decades down the road, you can actually genuinely absorb technology and improve on it yourself with the best of whats available (energy wise or other) then, than be stuck using up limited resources on a dead end that gives you nothing of value long term....but just another sinking of capital into another identical reactor. A smart country would know how to hedge what it has well, prioritise well and be dynamic on this front (energy). BD obviously isn't one of them. Anyways I am all for this deal anyway, your mistake is another's gain.

 

[UKBengali]

Nope. VVER is itself a final iteration of a nuclear tech chain developed long ago by the industrial might of the USSR. You are basically only helping Russia, not yourself. Even if BD was fully capable of absorbing the technical know how (which is isn't because it would have required some level of quality foundational research 20 - 30 years ago itself that would be maturing now)....there is nothing to progress on it later strategically and at the scale required to make any difference (given there will be better nuclear technology and more general energy technology by then that the rest of the world has developed, that you will have 18 billion dollars less to indulge in because its sunk into a premium dead end).

A country with fewer patents and science output than Zambia (and stuck at that level quite depressingly, which is in itself a major fact check on BD so called GDDS inflation ridden growth rate) ought to stick to better strategic vision for actual returns on major capital allocations. Like say improving your research programs and output.... so decades down the road, you can actually genuinely absorb technology and improve on it yourself with the best of whats available (energy wise or other) then, than be stuck using up limited resources on a dead end that gives you nothing of value long term....but just another sinking of capital into another identical reactor. A smart country would know how to hedge what it has well, prioritise well and be dynamic on this front (energy). BD obviously isn't one of them. Anyways I am all for this deal anyway, your mistake is another's gain.

You are not thinking deeply enough about the holistic picture here.

This plant gets BD the experience in safely operating nuclear reactors - after-all 1400 specialists are undergoing training in Russia. You actually need to run a power plant to get this experience and that cannot be done under research conditions.

The power plant is a visible symbol of BD intent and will spur the growth of indigenous research that will some decades down the line lead to BD design and construction of domestic nuclear power plant. You need to spend a little money if you are serious about building a strategic industry, and clean power is a nice side-effect.

PS - Still continuing with your butt-hurt at BD GDP growth? People that count believe it and that is all that matters.

 

[Nilgiri]

This plant gets BD the experience in safely operating nuclear reactors - after-all 1400 specialists are undergoing training in Russia. You actually need to run a power plant to get this experience and that cannot be done under research conditions.

The power plant is a visible symbol of BD intent and will spur the growth of indigenous research that will some decades down the line lead to BD design and construction of domestic nuclear power plant. You need to spend a little money if you are serious about building a strategic industry, and clean power is a nice side-effect.

LOL....simply operating tech safely should not come at this level of premium Russia extracting from you....and nothing will be given foundationally (given BD cannot even absorb that).

People that count believe it and that is all that matters.

If they genuinely believed it, BD would have been given SDDS category by IMF (just one example) and not have 4% sustained predicted growth rate (when you base on actual consumption patterns instead of accepting the state sponsored inflation laundering) by Harvard study.

Instead its lumped with the rest of the banana republics and haughtily in its corruption sinkhole rejects even trying to progress and graduate (ESCAP rejection for example, continued avoidance of rebasing the year)....likely because both would have significant downward impact on both the GDP level and claimed growth rate.

Besides are you saying M A Taslim cannot count? It is because he could count he exposed just what nasty result BBS/BAL was hiding in HIES:

https://opinion.bdnews24.com/2017/12/18/where-did-the-benefits-of-economic-growth-disappear/

Typical of low institutional quality LDC basket case I suppose.....one incapable of beating Zambia in patents and science output. No wonder the BD growth rate needs the level of inflation it has in it to feel better.

 

[UKBengali]

If they genuinely believed it, BD would have been given SDDS category by IMF (just one example) and not have 4% sustained predicted growth rate (when you base on actual consumption patterns instead of accepting the state sponsored inflation laundering) by Harvard study.

Such a butt-hurt loser you are obsessed with BD 24/7.

Harvard has to be right where all others are wrong!