Government eyes $61 billion export revenue in next five years

[ziaulislam]

Are you all smoking something?

Does any of you have an iota of sense when you talk about economics?

Not even one post is about economic analysis. Everybody is beating about the bush and copy-pasting cynical political sound bites in Economics section.

Why would exports grow?

1. Balance of payments means the GOP has to prioritize exports. The big hurdle was lack of consistent supply of electricity. Another was lack of Sales tax refunds. GOP stands to gain more from subsidizing export business than from taking more loans. Lately there has been some movement in this regard. Let us see.

2. Forex rates are pointing towards significant devaluation of local currency (again due to balance of payments). This always results in improvement in exports. When there is more money to be made from exports, business investment would make sure that it happens. This is automatic. GOP does not necessarily need to do something apart from ensuring that credit is available to exporting businesses. Typically industries like garments stitching (a major export earner) require relatively little investment and training of workforce to avail the opportunities.

3. Business investment opportunities would follow the direction to which evolution of economy points. If there is money to be made in Pakistan, funds will flow accordingly.

4. Cynicism never did anyone any good. Good business people are not cynics, but hard-nosed practical people who can sense opportunities. So cynics can continue being cynics and people who actually get stuff done would disregard them and get stuff done!

5. The only barrier to growth, like I have often said on this forum, is limited availability of quality human resources. However, in Textile sector (our chief export earner) one does not necessarily need highly trained and skilled workforce.

People talking about reform probably want the GOP to handle issues such as power theft, line losses, & dealing with state-owned-enterprises which are a constant drain on taxes and resources. When the opposition is bent on raising hell and conducting non-stop dharna politics, who can tackle these problems? Interior Sindh, rural KP, & parts of Balochistan are not exactly fond of paying electricity bills. Who will make them pay? PTI? PPP? Many drives for collection end in burning of grid stations by people who do not want to pay their bills. I have yet to see clear and sustained efforts by the respective provincial governments in this regard. And yet the blame falls on federal government.

The loss making state owned enterprises are chock full of political cadres: PPP & MQM in case of steel mills; PPP in case of PIA; ANP in case of Pakistan Railways. Any effort at privatizing Steel Mills or PIA results in opposition uniting to defy the initiative. With all sorts of instability plaguing the federation, would-be economists want the federal government to take the blame for lack of effort. Sirs, this is not lack of effort, but lack of cohesion, unity, and coherence, combined with lust for political advantage by any means available.

I dare any of the cynics on this thread to tell me that any of what I have described is wrong.

exactly, govt main problem was complete lack of regard for balance of payment problem, lack of refunds to textile, still charging taxation on export sector(which for example china doesn't) and still charge surcharge on electricity on exporters(which is unfair, charge domestic users), was protecting the rupee when similar currencies like India rupee fell more than 15% in same period..

power sector performed better but exports didnt pick up because of the above, they will pick up now, new team is way better than IShaq Dar team who simply focused only on GDP growth and tax revenues(under probably IMF pressure)

look... opposition is going to oppose everything its job of govt to do the right thing, especially when its this popular(not a coalition but single party), it took loans from IMF but IMF made it easier so it avoid any reforms in PIA, steel mills etc...result is it lost multiple cheaper loans...

now Pakistan might go back to IMF with harsher terms, that will hurt the growth due to austerity measures, i think this was mis opportunity by the govt on PIA, steel mills etc

on external front , govt lost many cheap loans from WB, AB due to poor /unsatisfactory performance on some projects

ANP since when is opposing railway privatization?, anyway its very small non significant party!

but one has to ask how much electricity do rural areas use, answer is less than 500MW
there is more loss at generation..

when it comes to power sector govt must
1. bring private investment via privatizing distribution companies
2. bring more investment via performing better on AB/WB projects
3. Get rid of furnace oil older plants
4. add cheaper hydro plants in long run
5. than think of curtailing losses t rural areas

you do know that PIA liabilities have touched 4.4 billion dollars alone and circular debt at 800 billion rupees not even 1/10 of this is due to losses at rural areas

 

[BetterPakistan]

Without any numbers, OK.

So how exactly did you get the quoted figures? Like what benchmark did you u use may I ask ?

I didn't came up with this figure. This is what researchers quote.

 

[salarsikander]

I didn't came up with this figure. This is what researchers quote.

Lol. Where is source to back it up.

Your arguments are getting weaker and pathetic by the day. Come up with something logical son next time. Or don't bother to respond

 

[BDforever]

Government eyes $61 billion export revenue in next five years

Listen

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan eyes more than $60 billion in exports revenue in the next five years, betting on a double-digit growth in outbound shipments so far in the current fiscal year, but industry officials linked the target with ease of doing business.

Ministry of Commerce on Wednesday arranged consultative meeting with relevant stakeholders, including representatives from chamber and commerce in order to get their inputs for promoting foreign trade in years to come.

They discussed the three different scenarios under Pakistan’s strategic trade policy framework (STPF) for 2018-2023.

If the country achieves only 10 percent annual growth in exports the revenue could go up to $36.21 billion over the next five years. If exports grow 15 percent a year the foreign revenue could increase to $47.28 billion. But, with 20 percent annual growth, Pakistan’s exports could touch $61.03 billion over the next five years.

Exports started to pick up in the range of 10 to 11 percent in the first seven months of the current fiscal year. However, the overall performance of exports remained dismally low and stood at $20.4 billion in the last fiscal year of 2016/17. Exports had actually declined from $24 billion to $20.4 billion in the last four-year period.

The STPF for 2018-2023 is expected to be presented before the federal cabinet in May 2018 just ahead of the next general elections.

Any policy framework for promoting country’s trade without ownership of upcoming government will pose question mark that how effectively the policy framework will be implemented in the next five years. However, the policy makers said the trade issues need to be looked beyond political divide and the same policy might be fine-tuned after the next government comes to power.

Federal Secretary Commerce Younus Dagha told the participants of the consultative meeting about the preparation of STPF for 2018-2023. He said the new policy would provide more incentives to small and medium enterprises and women entrepreneurs.

The STPF for 2018-2023 will be comprised of eight basic fundamentals, including institutional strengthening, investment linkages, service strategy, product development and compliance, gender mainstreaming, market access and regional connectivity, trade facilitation and finally trade promotion and branding.

Vice President Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) Karim Aziz Malik said the electricity tariff in Pakistan is 22 percent high as compared to other regional states. Malik said government will have to reduce cost of doing business in Pakistan in order to maximise competitive edge. He also called for reduction in tax burden on export oriented sectors.

FPCCI Vice President said the trade deficit widened because of free trade agreements especially with China and Malaysia. He demanded of the government to provide the same incentives to Pakistani businessmen in upcoming special economic zones as being provided to China under China Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Commerce ministry’s top officials, including Director General Trade Policy Nauman Aslam and senior official Mohammad Ashraf briefed the participants about the government measures after listening to their views.

The ministry has so far held nine consultative meetings at different places across the country in order to incorporate views of stakeholders for preparation of the new policy framework. The process kick-started in October 2017 and scrutiny of proposals will be done in the current month. The intra and inter-ministerial consultations will be done in March 2018 and the first draft of the upcoming policy will be ready by April 2018. The SPTF for 2018-2023 will be tabled before the cabinet for approval.

On the implementation of last SPTF from 2015-2018, the ministry officials told the meeting that restructuring of ministry of commerce, Trade Development Authority of Pakistan and Pakistan Horticulture Development and Export Company is underway, while placement of Intellectual Property Organisation under the commerce ministry has been implemented. Government is also strengthening skill development institutes and creating new export councils for rice and pharmaceutical products. But, there has been a medium progress on payment of stuck tax refunds.

Ministry officials said reasons for slow implementation of last SPTF were its nine-month delayed announcement, late publication of statutory regulatory orders/circulars and inherent flaws in business procedures.

our export target $60 billion by 2021 and these two target figures are very similar with close time frame

 

[BetterPakistan]

Lol. Where is source to back it up.

Your arguments are getting weaker and pathetic by the day. Come up with something logical son next time. Or don't bother to respond

Son, there is plenty of data available on google. You asked a simple question, I responded and I am not here to satisfy people look you without any economic know-how. Beta, better not to involve yourself in the things you don't know

 

[salarsikander]

Son, there is plenty of data available on google. You asked a simple question, I responded and I am not here to satisfy people look you without any economic know-how. Beta, better not to involve yourself in the things you don't know

Lol. Typical butthurt response.

Since you made that claim, the proof of burden lies on you. I am saying it because I am well aware.
You did quite time to conjure up the data but you couldn't find it, coz such ludicrous figure doesn't exist.
Next time discuss something like adult backed by facts and figures and not Hawaii firing kid

 

[BetterPakistan]

Lol. Typical butthurt response.

Since you made that claim, the proof of burden lies on you. I am saying it because I am well aware.
You did quite time to conjure up the data but you couldn't find it, coz such ludicrous figure doesn't exist.
Next time discuss something like adult backed by facts and figures and not Hawaii firing kid

Not a butt-hurt response but a straight response to kiddo who don't even know how to talk

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1470370/pakistan-untapped-export-potential-13b/

https://www.bizupdates.net/pakistans-export-potential-whopping-13b-remains-untapped/

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/272525-exports-to-china-hold-3-3-billion-potential

https://dailytimes.com.pk/120095/pakistan-can-double-exports-within-couple-of-years/

I can put tens of articles here but I am sure you don't know anything that's why I am not interested in wasting my time. Better go and learn how to talk.

Pakistan economy requires structural reforms to turn into an export-based economy rather than domestic-consumption economy.

 

[salarsikander]

Not a butt-hurt response but a straight response to kiddo who don't even know how to talk

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1470370/pakistan-untapped-export-potential-13b/

https://www.bizupdates.net/pakistans-export-potential-whopping-13b-remains-untapped/

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/272525-exports-to-china-hold-3-3-billion-potential

https://dailytimes.com.pk/120095/pakistan-can-double-exports-within-couple-of-years/

I can put tens of articles here but I am sure you don't know anything that's why I am not interested in wasting my time. Better go and learn how to talk.

Pakistan economy requires structural reforms to turn into an export-based economy rather than domestic-consumption economy.

Agree with your last part. But what exactly do we have to tap? What products do we make other than raw material, cotton and fruits that can be exported ?
As for the articles you posted, its just another bloated figure without any understanding of capacity of Pakistani manufacturers. Again noe wonder what Pakistani companies are working abroad with more than 1000 employees or 100 employees for that matter. Building industrialisation capacity takes ages and requires sound economic policies by competent leaders, not some gimmick by ruling party for election
K

 

[BetterPakistan]

Agree with your last part. But what exactly do we have to tap? What products do we make other than raw material, cotton and fruits that can be exported ?
As for the articles you posted, its just another bloated figure without any understanding of capacity of Pakistani manufacturers. Again noe wonder what Pakistani companies are working abroad with more than 1000 employees or 100 employees for that matter. Building industrialisation capacity takes ages and requires sound economic policies by competent leaders, not some gimmick by ruling party for election
K

Pakistan economy used to have industries which are all closed or shifted to other countries. Other than agricultural products & textile industries Pakistan got the potential what we need is structural reforms. Tariffs needs to be reformed at once. Pakistan steel industry is dead. If it would have been working properly we could have started exporting steel. Pakistan got plenty of coal reserves but we import coal. Pakistan got tons of copper and iron reserves but there's no one to look after it. We need consistency first.

 

[salarsikander]

Pakistan economy used to have industries which are all closed or shifted to other countries. Other than agricultural products & textile industries Pakistan got the potential what we need is structural reforms. Tariffs needs to be reformed at once. Pakistan steel industry is dead. If it would have been working properly we could have started exporting steel. Pakistan got plenty of coal reserves but we import coal. Pakistan got tons of copper and iron reserves but there's no one to look after it. We need consistency first.

And why did they shift? I personally know 2-3 medium sized textile owner who winded up and left for Bangladesh and Malaysia back zaradari era. The whom issue is about misgovernance, we missed the train and its next to impossible to catch nwithout radical changes in work style culture, export policies, mindset. Just compare our goods with anyone in south east Asia. Even the manufacturers here are unreliable, lack quality. If you ask them. Theyre totally clueless, yet their pricing is of international standatd

 

[ziaulislam]

Not a butt-hurt response but a straight response to kiddo who don't even know how to talk

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1470370/pakistan-untapped-export-potential-13b/

https://www.bizupdates.net/pakistans-export-potential-whopping-13b-remains-untapped/

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/272525-exports-to-china-hold-3-3-billion-potential

https://dailytimes.com.pk/120095/pakistan-can-double-exports-within-couple-of-years/

I can put tens of articles here but I am sure you don't know anything that's why I am not interested in wasting my time. Better go and learn how to talk.

Pakistan economy requires structural reforms to turn into an export-based economy rather than domestic-consumption economy.

and who are going to do these reforms?

 

[BetterPakistan]

and who are going to do these reforms?

Imran khan maybe

And why did they shift? I personally know 2-3 medium sized textile owner who winded up and left for Bangladesh and Malaysia back zaradari era. The whom issue is about misgovernance, we missed the train and its next to impossible to catch nwithout radical changes in work style culture, export policies, mindset. Just compare our goods with anyone in south east Asia. Even the manufacturers here are unreliable, lack quality. If you ask them. Theyre totally clueless, yet their pricing is of international standatd

structural reforms as I said

A small exporters package worth 180 bn was given due to which exports had increase this year. We need to revise our policies at once instead of these exporters package and need to shift our economy from domestic consuming to a net exporting economy. Reforms like China are required

 

[Sulman Badshah]

In Last 5 years Exports actually declined rather then being increased

 

[Śakra]

produces nothing, expects exports to rise 5 fold in 5 years. Great logic.

 

[I FLY HIGH]

Bullshit without reforms
When pml n govt came in they claimed 35 b$ which was resonable 50 % increase and 7%/ yr increase.(24b PPPP era high)

Instead we saw a decrease of over 15%!
Zero reforms high taxes and high electricity cost with high loses, high circular debt and interest payment which end up destroying export industry

In fact Pmln got the govt and there was no electricity /gas what so ever available for the production, circular debt for wapda, price cycle dropped down for garments , cotton etc . These factors reduced exports value and govt came up a plan of rebate which was quite substantive for textiles i.e 3% for yarn, 4% on greige fabrics,5% on processed fabrics, 7% for garments. It is bearing fruit as the exports have risen to 12% this year . However still there is a great lack of parity among the competitors especially with Bangladesh. Govt needs to lower the rates of Electricity , gas and must continue with the rebate package , i hope this must fix the problem.