Government eyes $61 billion export revenue in next five years

[My-Analogous]

Government eyes $61 billion export revenue in next five years

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ISLAMABAD: Pakistan eyes more than $60 billion in exports revenue in the next five years, betting on a double-digit growth in outbound shipments so far in the current fiscal year, but industry officials linked the target with ease of doing business.

Ministry of Commerce on Wednesday arranged consultative meeting with relevant stakeholders, including representatives from chamber and commerce in order to get their inputs for promoting foreign trade in years to come.

They discussed the three different scenarios under Pakistan’s strategic trade policy framework (STPF) for 2018-2023.

If the country achieves only 10 percent annual growth in exports the revenue could go up to $36.21 billion over the next five years. If exports grow 15 percent a year the foreign revenue could increase to $47.28 billion. But, with 20 percent annual growth, Pakistan’s exports could touch $61.03 billion over the next five years.

Exports started to pick up in the range of 10 to 11 percent in the first seven months of the current fiscal year. However, the overall performance of exports remained dismally low and stood at $20.4 billion in the last fiscal year of 2016/17. Exports had actually declined from $24 billion to $20.4 billion in the last four-year period.

The STPF for 2018-2023 is expected to be presented before the federal cabinet in May 2018 just ahead of the next general elections.

Any policy framework for promoting country’s trade without ownership of upcoming government will pose question mark that how effectively the policy framework will be implemented in the next five years. However, the policy makers said the trade issues need to be looked beyond political divide and the same policy might be fine-tuned after the next government comes to power.

Federal Secretary Commerce Younus Dagha told the participants of the consultative meeting about the preparation of STPF for 2018-2023. He said the new policy would provide more incentives to small and medium enterprises and women entrepreneurs.

The STPF for 2018-2023 will be comprised of eight basic fundamentals, including institutional strengthening, investment linkages, service strategy, product development and compliance, gender mainstreaming, market access and regional connectivity, trade facilitation and finally trade promotion and branding.

Vice President Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) Karim Aziz Malik said the electricity tariff in Pakistan is 22 percent high as compared to other regional states. Malik said government will have to reduce cost of doing business in Pakistan in order to maximise competitive edge. He also called for reduction in tax burden on export oriented sectors.

FPCCI Vice President said the trade deficit widened because of free trade agreements especially with China and Malaysia. He demanded of the government to provide the same incentives to Pakistani businessmen in upcoming special economic zones as being provided to China under China Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Commerce ministry’s top officials, including Director General Trade Policy Nauman Aslam and senior official Mohammad Ashraf briefed the participants about the government measures after listening to their views.

The ministry has so far held nine consultative meetings at different places across the country in order to incorporate views of stakeholders for preparation of the new policy framework. The process kick-started in October 2017 and scrutiny of proposals will be done in the current month. The intra and inter-ministerial consultations will be done in March 2018 and the first draft of the upcoming policy will be ready by April 2018. The SPTF for 2018-2023 will be tabled before the cabinet for approval.

On the implementation of last SPTF from 2015-2018, the ministry officials told the meeting that restructuring of ministry of commerce, Trade Development Authority of Pakistan and Pakistan Horticulture Development and Export Company is underway, while placement of Intellectual Property Organisation under the commerce ministry has been implemented. Government is also strengthening skill development institutes and creating new export councils for rice and pharmaceutical products. But, there has been a medium progress on payment of stuck tax refunds.

Ministry officials said reasons for slow implementation of last SPTF were its nine-month delayed announcement, late publication of statutory regulatory orders/circulars and inherent flaws in business procedures.

Stop talking and start working

 

[imrankhan7250]

Stop talking and start working

I am a business graduate and a very enthusiastic follower of economic news. Very long term past growth will tell u that this target is wet dreams.
In joneju's regime I heard firm time that we will cross $8bn. Then till 99 our exports were just around $9 bn.
Then in Musharraf regime it went to $22 bn.
Our exports made history in 2008 or 2009 by reaching to the $24 bn.since then constantly decreasing to less than 20 bn. No policy has been ever made to increase our exports. No body in the cabinet is serious about it

 

[Menace2Society]

I am a business graduate and a very enthusiastic follower of economic news. Very long term past growth will tell u that this target is wet dreams.
In joneju's regime I heard firm time that we will cross $8bn. Then till 99 our exports were just around $9 bn.
Then in Musharraf regime it went to $22 bn.
Our exports made history in 2008 or 2009 by reaching to the $24 bn.since then constantly decreasing to less than 20 bn. No policy has been ever made to increase our exports. No body in the cabinet is serious about it

Its not a policy matter. What are business owners in Pakistan doing? Are they growing to the point of being a sme then spending their money abroad in places like UAE?

How many corporations does Pakistan have? How many companies employ more than 10,000 staff?

What can Pakistan offer that is cheaper and better quality which is not food stuff?

Pakistan needs to become a business tax haven and business owners needed to be encouraged and incentized to keep their money in the country and grow their businesses.

Too many cash and carry style buying and selling aloo chawal like businesses in Pakistan. Need big businesses which create jobs.

 

[ziaulislam]

Its not a policy matter. What are business owners in Pakistan doing? Are they growing to the point of being a sme then spending their money abroad in places like UAE?

How many corporations does Pakistan have? How many companies employ more than 10,000 staff?

What can Pakistan offer that is cheaper and better quality which is not food stuff?

Pakistan needs to become a business tax haven and business owners needed to be encouraged and incentized to keep their money in the country and grow their businesses.

Too many cash and carry style buying and selling aloo chawal like businesses in Pakistan. Need big businesses which create jobs.

LOL, its a policy matter
i will just give you two points
1. on ease of doing business pakistan is not in top 140 list!!!!?
2. co operate taxation is at 30% that is one of highest in the world

thus big business CANNOT SURVIVE

 

[My-Analogous]

I am a business graduate and a very enthusiastic follower of economic news. Very long term past growth will tell u that this target is wet dreams.
In joneju's regime I heard firm time that we will cross $8bn. Then till 99 our exports were just around $9 bn.
Then in Musharraf regime it went to $22 bn.
Our exports made history in 2008 or 2009 by reaching to the $24 bn.since then constantly decreasing to less than 20 bn. No policy has been ever made to increase our exports. No body in the cabinet is serious about it

Pakistan never have any policy on export and import till date. They are just playing games and our enemy is engaging us on economic war and we are not serious enough to realized that. India and now US is trying to hit on our economy. We badly need planning and implementation

 

[BetterPakistan]

Do you have hard numbers by govt on export or by industry to show how much capacity the have ?

If not, then what you say is bullshit

Being having the capacity and implementing it are two different things. You asked about capacity, I told you

 

[salarsikander]

Being having the capacity and implementing it are two different things. You asked about capacity, I told you

I an afraid without hard evidence this is pure speculation and bullshit

 

[BetterPakistan]

I an afraid without hard evidence this is pure speculation and bullshit

this is capacity measurement

 

[salarsikander]

this is capacity measurement

Without any numbers, OK.

So how exactly did you get the quoted figures? Like what benchmark did you u use may I ask ?

 

[Jinn Baba]

You can't blame local businessmen for taking their money abroad. With high corruption, lack of electricity and the general law and order problems they didn't exactly have much choice.

But now that the latter two problems have seen some improvement - may be these businessmen will reinvest rather than moving abroad.

For the 5th largest country in the world we are really far behind

 

[salarsikander]

You can't blame local businessmen for taking their money abroad. With high corruption, lack of electricity and the general law and order problems they didn't exactly have much choice.

But now that the latter two problems have seen some improvement - may be these businessmen will reinvest rather than moving abroad.

For the 5th largest country in the world we are really far behind

Just look at quality and cftasmanahip of local so called well known furniture makers, like Seat, habitt. They still nail down the joints, and charge you at international prices. No wonder no one buys this carp which is not exported

 

[Śakra]

Wishful thinking.

 

[Flash_Ninja]

Its been proven time and time again that corruption, political incompetence, and the current legal framework are the primary obstacles to more investment.

Nobody wants to invest somewhere where their assets can one day just be destroyed/seized by the local 'fuedal lords', and nobody wants to invest somewhere where they have to bribe and pay off half a dozen people just to do anything. Ever noticed how crazy rich some Pakistanis are, and yet maintain almost all of their assets outside Pakistan? These are the reasons why.

If you want to see higher exports just dont elect PMLN or PPP, elect people that actually want to reform the current system instead of the ones that are selfishly prospering off it.

 

[Arsalan]

That means per year it should be 12 bn


Do we have half capacity of 12 billion dollar?

They are talking about achieving 61 billions US$ exports per year in five years time!

(Even our current exports hover around 20 billion mark)


Sounds like another one of those Sakha Dollar pipe dreams!

 

[Chak Bamu]

Are you all smoking something?

Does any of you have an iota of sense when you talk about economics?

Not even one post is about economic analysis. Everybody is beating about the bush and copy-pasting cynical political sound bites in Economics section.

Why would exports grow?

1. Balance of payments means the GOP has to prioritize exports. The big hurdle was lack of consistent supply of electricity. Another was lack of Sales tax refunds. GOP stands to gain more from subsidizing export business than from taking more loans. Lately there has been some movement in this regard. Let us see.

2. Forex rates are pointing towards significant devaluation of local currency (again due to balance of payments). This always results in improvement in exports. When there is more money to be made from exports, business investment would make sure that it happens. This is automatic. GOP does not necessarily need to do something apart from ensuring that credit is available to exporting businesses. Typically industries like garments stitching (a major export earner) require relatively little investment and training of workforce to avail the opportunities.

3. Business investment opportunities would follow the direction to which evolution of economy points. If there is money to be made in Pakistan, funds will flow accordingly.

4. Cynicism never did anyone any good. Good business people are not cynics, but hard-nosed practical people who can sense opportunities. So cynics can continue being cynics and people who actually get stuff done would disregard them and get stuff done!

5. The only barrier to growth, like I have often said on this forum, is limited availability of quality human resources. However, in Textile sector (our chief export earner) one does not necessarily need highly trained and skilled workforce.

People talking about reform probably want the GOP to handle issues such as power theft, line losses, & dealing with state-owned-enterprises which are a constant drain on taxes and resources. When the opposition is bent on raising hell and conducting non-stop dharna politics, who can tackle these problems? Interior Sindh, rural KP, & parts of Balochistan are not exactly fond of paying electricity bills. Who will make them pay? PTI? PPP? Many drives for collection end in burning of grid stations by people who do not want to pay their bills. I have yet to see clear and sustained efforts by the respective provincial governments in this regard. And yet the blame falls on federal government.

The loss making state owned enterprises are chock full of political cadres: PPP & MQM in case of steel mills; PPP in case of PIA; ANP in case of Pakistan Railways. Any effort at privatizing Steel Mills or PIA results in opposition uniting to defy the initiative. With all sorts of instability plaguing the federation, would-be economists want the federal government to take the blame for lack of effort. Sirs, this is not lack of effort, but lack of cohesion, unity, and coherence, combined with lust for political advantage by any means available.

I dare any of the cynics on this thread to tell me that any of what I have described is wrong.