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German industry would collapse without Russian gas

Germany gets fresh criticism over its purchase of Russian natural gas​

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says his government cannot afford to immediately cut off of Russian oil and natural gas.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says his government cannot afford to immediately cut off of Russian oil and natural gas.
(John MacDougall / Associated Press)

BY ERIK KIRSCHBAUM

APRIL 4, 2022 UPDATED 9:31 PM PT
BERLIN —
Germany is again under fire from its Western European and U.S. allies for hesitating to cut business ties with Russia.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his government maintained Germany will continue to buy billions of dollars’ worth of natural gas and oil from Russia each week for the foreseeable future to keep German car companies and factories operating at full throttle, even though critics in Ukraine and the West argue that the $220 million Germany sends to Moscow every day for Russian energy is being used, at least indirectly, to finance its war against Ukraine.

“We are pursuing a strategy that will make us independent of Russian gas, coal and oil, but just not right away,” Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy and energy minister, said Sunday evening in an interview on German television. Two hours later, the leader of Scholz’s Social Democratic Party amplified the sentiment.
“An immediate embargo of Russian natural gas would be the wrong way to go,” Lars Klingbeil told another German TV talk show.

Germany relies on Russian energy for half of its energy needs.

In addition to criticism from the United States and Ukraine, others this week, including Poland, lashed out at Germany for not assuming its share of the economic burden.

In an interview published in Germany’s Welt Sunday newspaper, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, head of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party, demanded that Germany stop buying oil and natural gas from Russia.

“You can’t constantly support a great power like Russia with billions in payments from the purchase of energy,” said Kaczynski. “This is inadmissible from a political and moral point of view. This must come to an end, and Germany should finally take a clear stance on this.”

The steadfast refusal to ban Russian oil and natural gas imports has become particularly awkward for Germany — Europe’s economic powerhouse — following allegations by Ukraine of genocide in Bucha, after Russian forces retreated from that city. Because of the shame of the Holocaust and its Nazi past, Germany’s action — or inaction — when it concerns moral leadership in a time of crisis comes under special scrutiny across Europe.

Germany, which has a yearning for peaceful resolutions to conflicts in part as a reaction to its war-filled 20th century past, faced widespread criticism before the war started for initially refusing to send any defensive weapons to Ukraine as a Russian invasion loomed, and because it also blocked the transfer of German-made weapons from other NATO members to Ukraine. Germany also faced criticism because it initially opposed cutting Russian banks off from the SWIFT global banking network.

Lithuania announced Sunday that it has banned Russian energy imports while Poland and Slovakia, among others, have called for speedy action. The German government’s business-like explanations that it cannot possibly stop importing Russian energy until later this year — because an embargo would risk sending its economy into recession — have resonated across Europe. The United States said in early March it had stopped all Russian oil and energy imports in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

While Scholz’s government says it cannot afford an immediate cutoff of Russian oil and natural gas, others within Germany differ.

“We’ve got to stop financing Putin’s war,” said Marieluise Beck, directing her comments at leaders of her Greens party and the ruling Social Democrats, shortly after returning from a trip to Kyiv. “Ukraine doesn’t have much time left. We’ve got to take another look at how much [economic pain] we can handle ourselves.”

Others in the ranks of the Greens party have also called for an immediate embargo.

The renewed foot-dragging on tougher sanctions against Russia by Germany threatens to further embarrass the country that had long been deepening business ties with Russia, even after its 2014 annexation of Crimea.

An earlier German government in which Scholz’s Social Democrats served approved a business deal with Russia in 2015 — just a year after the Crimea takeover — to double the amount of Russian gas imported through a new Nord Stream 2 pipeline that was completed last year. The pipeline was designed, critics say, to circumvent Ukraine and rob it of billions of dollars in annual transit fees.

“For the whole world and especially Germany, the message has to be clear — don’t give Russia another cent because it’s blood money that’s being used to butcher people,” said Kyiv’s Mayor Vitali Klitschko in an interview with Germany’s Bild newspaper on Monday. “We need an immediate embargo on all oil and natural gas from Russia.”

Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, Andriy Melnyk, said the alleged massacres uncovered in Bucha only reinforced the need for Germany to take on a leadership role in standing up to Russia rather than focus on German-Russian business ties and its own economy.

“I hope this massacre will serve as a red line for the German government so that it finally starts to act,” Melnyk said. “That means an immediate embargo on oil, natural gas, coal and metals. I don’t understand how anyone in Germany can sleep at night after seeing horrors like this without doing anything about it. What’s it going to take for Germany to act with tougher sanctions? A chemical weapons attack? What are they waiting for?”

Scholz had bristled at a suggestion last week during a German TV interview by leading independent economists that an immediate embargo on Russian gas would only slow, but not cripple, the German economy. “They’ve got that all wrong,” Scholz said sharply. “It’s irresponsible to calculate some kind of mathematic model like that.”

The German chancellor, noting large numbers of jobs were at stake, added: “If we were to suddenly stop importing natural gas [from Russia], that would mean entire industrial sectors would have to shut down.”

Instead of banning Russian gas, German government leaders are mulling plans to conserve energy, such as introducing maximum speed limits on its high-speed freeways, prolonging the use of its last three nuclear power plants that were scheduled to be mothballed this year, and increasing its use of coal-burning power plants.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has been a frequent target of sharp criticism from Ukraine and its ambassador for being a champion of business ties with Russia as a way to secure peace in Europe. Steinmeier, a former foreign minister, acknowledged Monday that he had been wrong about Russia.

“We were clinging to the idea of building bridges to Russia that our partners warned us about,” Steinmeier said, in particular apologizing for his support for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that the United States and most of Europe warned Germany against because it increased German dependence on Russian natural gas. “We failed to build a common Europe. We failed to incorporate Russia in our security architecture…. I was wrong.”

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized former Chancellor Angela Merkel and former French President Nicolas Sarkozy in a speech on Sunday, inviting them to Bucha to see firsthand what happens after 14 years of concessions to Russia and leading opposition to Ukraine’s bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization despite support for Kyiv’s bid by President George W. Bush.

“Former Chancellor Angela Merkel stands by her decision at the NATO summit in 2008 in Bucharest,” a spokesman for Merkel said, referring to her opposition to Ukraine’s bid.

 
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It’s almost like the zog elites want Germany to collapse
 
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US diplomat: Mediterranean gas pipeline to Europe not viable​

Posted: Apr 7, 2022 / 03:33 AM MDT

NICOSIA, Cyprus (AP) — A proposed pipeline to deliver natural gas from deposits in the east Mediterranean to European markets is too expensive, not economically viable and will take too long to help countries seeking alternatives to Russian gas any time soon, a senior U.S. diplomat said Thursday.

U.S. Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland said after talks with Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades that countries in the region have understood thatdependence on Russian oil and gas is “an extremely bad bet” following its invasion of Ukraine.

But she said the proposed East Med pipeline project wouldn’t be able to immediately deliver the gas Europe now needs to swiftly wean itself of Russian energy because it would run in very deep water and construction would take more than a decade.

“And frankly, we don’t have 10 years, but in 10 years from now, we want to be far, far more green and far more diverse” in energy sources, Nuland said. “So what we’re looking for within the hydrocarbon context are options that can get us more gas, more oil for this short transition period.”

The idea for the 1,900-kilometer (1,300-mile), $6 billion pipeline to send natural gas — which is used to heat homes, generate electricity and keep industry churning — from recently discovered deposits off Israel and Cyprus was spawned several years ago between European Union members Greece and Cyprus, whose leaders signed a deal in 2020 to proceed with its planning.

Nuland’s remarks appear to effectively shelve the project. Nuland said the U.S. and regional partners including Israel, Greece, Cyprus and Turkey are looking for alternative ways to get gas to markets.

One project that has U.S. backing is an electric cable linking Israel and Cyprus to the European continent.

Cyprus Energy Minister Natasa Pilides told The Associated Press last October that transferring gas by pipeline to Egyptian processing plants where it would be liquefied for export aboard ships is the “most likely option” to quickly get gas to mainland Europe.

The head of ExxonMobil’s Cyprus arm, Varnavas Theodossiou, told the AP in February that natural gas will remain an important energy source through 2050 and quantities found off Cyprus could reach markets through a pipeline or by liquefying it for transport by ship.

ExxonMobil and partner Qatar Petroleum are licensed to carry out exploratory drilling in two of 13 areas — known as blocks — inside Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone off the island nation’s southern coastline. ExxonMobil has discovered one deposit estimated to contain 5-8 trillion cubic feet of gas.

A consortium made up of France’s TotalEnergies and Italy’s Eni have been granted exploration licenses for seven blocks and have made one significant discovery.

Chevron and partner Shellare licensed for one block, where a confirmed well is estimated to hold 4.1 trillion cubic feet of gas.

 
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I guess now what Germany wants to do the most is leaving EU.

Nope, big majority is for EU membership. In the globalized world the EU gives power. We are stronger together

But i heared Tibet would like to follow Taiwan and leave China.
 
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Nope, big majority is for EU membership. In the globalized world the EU gives power. We are stronger together

But i heared Tibet would like to follow Taiwan and leave China.
LOL, Beijing is leaving China now.
 
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‘Firms will go bust’: Germany prepares for a future without Russian gas​

Germany is bracing for supplies to be cut by Moscow in retaliation for sanctions or as part of an energy embargo

Sat 9 Apr 2022 12.00 BST

In Germany, they call it “Day X”. Businesses up and down the land are making contingency plans for what is seen as a growing likelihood that Russian gas will stop flowing into Europe’s biggest economy.

“It would be a disaster – one which would have seemed almost unthinkable just two months ago, but which right now feels like a very realistic prospect,” the owner of a hi-tech mechanical engineering company in western Germany said. The firm produces everything from battery cases for electric cars to train clutch systems.

The speaker did not want to be named, or for his company to be identified, in part for fear, he said, of appearing to support Russia’s war by making the case that if the gas is turned off, his century-old business “will likely not survive”. But he says he is in a deep quandary and feeling very vulnerable, as he is not only heavily reliant on gas – the cost of which has already soared – but also on metals such as nickel and aluminium, much of which comes from Russia.

Germany gets around 50bn cubic metres a year or 55% of its gas from Russia, the largest by volume of any EU country, and by extension, the biggest share of any large European economy.

Two possible, not unlikely scenarios are being mooted: one envisages Moscow deciding to cut off or reduce supplies in retaliation for sanctions; the other sees Germany giving in to mounting pressure to support an EU energy embargo according to which the recipients would effectively call Putin’s bluff by cutting themselves off from Russian supplies.

On Friday at the Brandenburg Gate, protesters in favour of an oil and gas embargo made their point for the moral argument, with 410 red lights commemorating the victims of Russian army killings in the town of Bucha, alongside slogans asking German chancellor Olaf Scholz: “If not now, when?” Their message is stark. As long as German industry keeps taking the energy – for which it pays Moscow €200m (£167m) every day – it is helping fund the atrocities.

But industry bosses and political leaders have warned that the damage to Germany by turning off the taps would be far greater than any benefit it brings to Ukraine.

“What use to anybody is a weakened Germany?” a source close to the government told the Guardian this week.

Millions of private homes without heat is just one part of the picture. The other, arguably bigger concern, are the manufacturing giants, dependent on gas to operate, such as Thyssenkrupp, BASF and Bayer. And the hundreds of thousands of small and medium sized businesses with which they are interlinked.

Industry representatives have warned that the effects would be felt in every product from construction material, synthetics, pesticides, disinfectant, packaging and semiconductors to the production of antibiotics, Coronavirus vaccines and cancer drugs. The chain reaction is difficult to predict but likely to be considerable.

Robert Habeck, the economics minister, has urged Germans to “turn down the thermostat” – saying that “every kilowatt hour that Germany saves harms Putin” – what some have cynically dubbed “freezing for Ukraine”. Industry too is being urged to scale back its use.

Some have done so already, forced by the high energy costs. Others, such as the porcelain manufacturer KPM, founded in 1763, are working overtime to produce as many goods as possible before the taps are turned off. “Who knows for how long we will have gas?” its CEO, Martina Hacker, told Der Spiegel. “We can’t produce porcelain without it.”


How can Europe wean itself off Russian gas?
Read more

Other companies have reduced production to a minimum. But industries such as glass manufacturers say shutting down production facilities altogether is not an option as it would cause liquids to set and destroy the machines.

The country’s 45 gas storage facilities are only about 26% full. The plan is to increase levels to 80% by the autumn, largely by saving energy now, in order to safeguard supplies for next winter.

Habeck triggered the first part of a three-point emergency plan last week that anticipates a slow-down or halt of gas and decides where supplies would go. Hospitals, emergency services and medical manufacturers would be prioritised, followed by private households. Industries, which use a quarter of the gas delivered to Germany would be the first expected to shut down, according to the plan. Which is why businesses are being asked to put forward their arguments as to how “system relevant” they are.

Law firms have been flooded with queries from companies wanting to know their legal standing, while industrial associations report being inundated with queries by members asking where they rank in the pecking order and how they should react to the uncertainty.

One representative said: “We have glass manufacturers saying they are system relevant because they provide the medical industry with glass vials, paper manufacturers, arguing that their corrugated cardboard is vital for the safe transport of the vials. How do you possibly argue against them?”

The Federal Network Agency, which ensures fair access to gas, electricity and other vital services, has sent a questionnaire to all German businesses, asking them to effectively set out their individual arguments for a right to gas. “The question of prioritisation is a very difficult decision, requiring consideration of a wide range of consequences,” said a spokesperson for the economics ministry.

Some predict an ugly battle over who deserves the energy most.

There are doomsday visions of supply chains – already under pressure due to the pandemic – collapsing altogether, businesses forced into bankruptcy, mass unemployment.

The head of IG Metall, Jörg Hoffmann, a unionthat represents 1.2 million workers in the chemical, metal processing and food production, has warned of “a recession deeper than any of the recessions we have known until now.”

BASF, the chemical giant, and one of Germany’s biggest single purchasers and consumers of energy, said the effect of its production downturn would soon be felt.

“We would get very high unemployment, many firms would go bust,” BASF chairman Martin Brudermüller has said. “It would lead to irreversible damage. To put it bluntly: it could lead Germany into its most serious crisis since the end of the second world war, and destroy our prosperity.”

A race against time is on to find alternative gas source supplies from the Netherlands and Norway and increaseliquid natural gas (LNG) supplies from Belgian terminals and the US. Habeck has been to Qatar to secure further shipments and has ordered the construction of LNG carriers to float in German ports rather than wait for the construction of proposed new LNG terminals, which will take too long. The abolition of coal-fired plants – seen as a central part of the climate emergency plan – may yet be delayed.

 
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