I am a recent enthusiast of the geopolitical scene.I would like to discuss the ramifications of various geopolitical events of today and tomorrow which are going to affect our lives in a huge way.
So here we go!
There a slow,deliberate and multifaceted game of chess going on all around the world.Some players like US and individual European countries are becoming weaker after starting from position of strength while others like EU,China and India are gradually becoming more and more powerful.Then there are other players like Russia,ASEAN who will always be there or thereabouts but never dominate to the extent the above blocks will.
It is predicted that China will overtake US in GDP anytime between 2020 to 2027 while India would do so between 2048 to 2060.But GDP is only one part of the picture.US is still the innovative leader of the world, taking in skilled immigrants from all over the world.The outsourced factories in China which add to Chinese GDP bring profits to US, not China.
US would also retain its military supremacy till 2050.US will also have support of Canada,UK and Australia since they are basically the same people.So, for all intents are purposes, US will be the strongest country in the world till 2050.
But at the same time, US is a diminishing power nonetheless.Its lead over rest of the world will be in a steady decline throughout this period.Instead of a super-power, it will a first among equals.
The relative decline of US and rise of India and China is not a blip.Till 1800, China and India were two richest countries in the world respectively.But both were subjugated by the West, buoyed by Industrial revolution.Now things are slowly returning to where they should be.The equilibrium is shifting again to the east, the ancient cradle of civilization.We should make sure US doesn't play the divide and rule game British played in India by pushing China and India against each other.
Europe is struggling to define its role in 21st century.What should it do?Follow US leadership or project itself as an alternative to it?EU is not able to makeup its mind over the issue.Still it is an interesting experiment and it may well be known as the the precursor of a Pan-Earth government along with the UN.
And then we have sleeping giant Africa which will only truly wakeup in the late part of this century. We are already seeing China and India in competition for resources in Africa, with China getting better of India till now.But this is changing, as India which was 13 years behind China in economic reforms is catching up.In next few years India will get her fair share of the African pie.For now, Africa lies dormant.
Add to this mix, the middle east which will have to reinvent itself when the world moves from oil based economy to other sources of energy.I think this will be the end of Islamic radicals.IMO the reason for Islamic radicalization is that discovery of oil in middle-east gave a lot of money and power to a society which was not ready for it, a society which was still dominated by backward clerics.
As this easy money supply is trickled away, the people will have to re-integrate with the rest of the world and the orthodox clerics will loose power.Turkey is a case in point.
So all in all a lot of things are going on in the world at the same time.It will be very interesting to know what will be the sum total of all this in 50 years.Please share your thoughts on this.
P.S I have not mentioned South America since all I know about it is that Brazil is a member of BRICS and Venezuela has lot of oil.
So here we go!
There a slow,deliberate and multifaceted game of chess going on all around the world.Some players like US and individual European countries are becoming weaker after starting from position of strength while others like EU,China and India are gradually becoming more and more powerful.Then there are other players like Russia,ASEAN who will always be there or thereabouts but never dominate to the extent the above blocks will.
It is predicted that China will overtake US in GDP anytime between 2020 to 2027 while India would do so between 2048 to 2060.But GDP is only one part of the picture.US is still the innovative leader of the world, taking in skilled immigrants from all over the world.The outsourced factories in China which add to Chinese GDP bring profits to US, not China.
US would also retain its military supremacy till 2050.US will also have support of Canada,UK and Australia since they are basically the same people.So, for all intents are purposes, US will be the strongest country in the world till 2050.
But at the same time, US is a diminishing power nonetheless.Its lead over rest of the world will be in a steady decline throughout this period.Instead of a super-power, it will a first among equals.
The relative decline of US and rise of India and China is not a blip.Till 1800, China and India were two richest countries in the world respectively.But both were subjugated by the West, buoyed by Industrial revolution.Now things are slowly returning to where they should be.The equilibrium is shifting again to the east, the ancient cradle of civilization.We should make sure US doesn't play the divide and rule game British played in India by pushing China and India against each other.
Europe is struggling to define its role in 21st century.What should it do?Follow US leadership or project itself as an alternative to it?EU is not able to makeup its mind over the issue.Still it is an interesting experiment and it may well be known as the the precursor of a Pan-Earth government along with the UN.
And then we have sleeping giant Africa which will only truly wakeup in the late part of this century. We are already seeing China and India in competition for resources in Africa, with China getting better of India till now.But this is changing, as India which was 13 years behind China in economic reforms is catching up.In next few years India will get her fair share of the African pie.For now, Africa lies dormant.
Add to this mix, the middle east which will have to reinvent itself when the world moves from oil based economy to other sources of energy.I think this will be the end of Islamic radicals.IMO the reason for Islamic radicalization is that discovery of oil in middle-east gave a lot of money and power to a society which was not ready for it, a society which was still dominated by backward clerics.
As this easy money supply is trickled away, the people will have to re-integrate with the rest of the world and the orthodox clerics will loose power.Turkey is a case in point.
So all in all a lot of things are going on in the world at the same time.It will be very interesting to know what will be the sum total of all this in 50 years.Please share your thoughts on this.
P.S I have not mentioned South America since all I know about it is that Brazil is a member of BRICS and Venezuela has lot of oil.
