Natural and man made disasters do have significant geo strategic implications. For example India exploited the misery created by the 1970 cyclone, one of the most disastrous in the world, to forment anti Pakistani sentiments which ultimately led to creation of Bangladesh. The Chernobyl disaster was a major contributor to collapse of the Soviet Union.
The purpose of this thread is to get serious and objective thoughts from other members about the possible, if any, geo strategic implications of the current Covid situation in India.
Some of my random thoughts are that the death toll going over a million and/or a break down of the food supply chain and/or significant slow down in economic activity could lead to social turmoil raising existentialist concerns about India. Some media houses are already raising such concerns but in my opinion they are very premature.
India is being seen as a counterbalance to China by the West and it is doing everything to prop it up. Full Security Council membership could be on the cards. Based on its disastrous handing of the pandemic, some G7 countries (The Indian delegation might have just infected a G7 ministerial meeting in London) might be scratching their heads about India’s readiness for such a status and its overall dependability
Last couple of years have been disastrous for Modi. The Balakot and Ladakh debacles, anti Muslim riots in Delhi, the farmer’s agitation, loss of clout in Afghanistan and a total mishandling of the pandemic. Ultimately the spin will run out. Understanding Modi’s megalomaniac mind set, he might do something to regain his standing and/or distract attention. Consequently, an aggressive move against their usual target Pakistan cannot be ruled out. The only thing stopping him would possible reaction from China.
what are your thoughts?
