Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani

[solid snake]

In Pakistan, U.S. Envoy Courts No. 2 General
Deputy Could Succeed Musharraf as Army Chief

By Emily Wax
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, November 21, 2007; A12

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Nov. 20 -- When Deputy Secretary of State John D. Negroponte visited Pakistan last weekend, he met once with President Pervez Musharraf, for two hours. But before he left town, he held three meetings with a lesser-known figure: Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani, the deputy army chief.

The two shared a Saturday night dinner.

The attention paid to Kiyani has affirmed reports here that he will soon be anointed Musharraf's successor as head of the army -- and, as such, will be a vital ally for the Bush administration during a time of crisis.

"Use your influence. You can help save Pakistan," Negroponte told Kiyani during the visit, according to a Western diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Musharraf has repeatedly said he will step down from his army post. It remains unclear when he will do so. If Kiyani is named successor, he will command Pakistan's 600,000 troops and lead the country's most important institution.

Power in Pakistan flows from the uniform, as a popular saying here goes. Half of the country's rulers have been sons of the military.

"To understand the power of Pakistan, you have to understand that it's the military that matters. And they are kingmakers here," said Shireen M. Mazari of the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad. "I don't know if that implies that Kiyani can indeed influence Musharraf politically right now. But he may well do in the future, if history is an indicator."

Public support for Musharraf, who was installed in the presidency after a 1999 coup, has never been as low as it is now, following his decision Nov. 3 to declare emergency rule, fire several Supreme Court justices and crack down on the news media.

On Tuesday, Musharraf's government released more than 3,000 political prisoners who had been held under emergency rule, many of them lawyers. But the Interior Ministry said 2,000 people remain detained. And in Lahore, a group of lawyers was briefly released and then arrested again.

Meanwhile, police detained 150 journalists in the southern city of Karachi, where violence broke out after police sprayed tear gas, used batons to beat protesters and chased them through the streets. Several journalists were shown on television injured.

Musharraf flew to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday amid reports that he might be meeting with Nawaz Sharif -- the prime minister ousted in the '99 coup.

With the political uncertainty continuing in Pakistan, analysts say Kiyani is key to Musharraf's own future.

Few say Kiyani would attempt a coup because, for now at least, top military leaders would not support it. And Kiyani, 55, has his own reasons not to press Musharraf to lift emergency rule or resign as president.

"He won't risk his own job, since time is on his side," said Talat Masood, a retired Pakistani general who is now a political analyst.

Masood added that "the U.S. emphasis is correct."

"They have to cultivate him and make sure they get along well with each other," he said. "Because if, down the road, the army feels their reputation is sinking along with Musharraf, well, that is when you have seen a change of power in Pakistan throughout history."

Pakistan's army was once the most popular institution in the country. Bumper stickers proclaimed, "Good Men Serve in the Pakistani Army." Wars with India over Kashmir were a unifying factor against a common enemy.

But Musharraf and the troops he commands have lost support among many Pakistanis. The president has been criticized for undermining national interests in favor of the Bush administration's in counterterrorism operations. Public approval of the military sank after soldiers launched a deadly raid at a pro-Taliban mosque in Islamabad, with troops facing off against religious students.

Throughout the recent turmoil, Kiyani has remained out of the political spotlight.

Before becoming the armed forces' No. 2, the general was head of the Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan's spy agency, where he worked closely with senior CIA and Pentagon officials. He was given that post after investigating two assassination attempts against Musharraf in 2003; the appointment was seen as a reward.

Kiyani has working-class roots, having been raised in farming communities in the Punjab region, sometimes called the country's "martial belt" because many teenage boys from the province enter the military, lacking other economic opportunities. He attended the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth, Kan.

Colleagues say Kiyani is more knowledgeable about al-Qaeda than any other army general. He is said to have good relations with some of the country's civilian political leaders, including former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, for whom he served as deputy military secretary.

Kiyani is known to show few emotions publicly and takes time to think over decisions, which analysts say could be a calming trait in the current political turbulence.

"The real question now is: Can Kiyani foster a better public image of the army and gain support within the army for what they are doing against their own brothers in fighting militancy in the tribal areas and in the Swat Valley?" said Nasim Zehra, a defense and security analyst in Islamabad. "As a Pakistani, I have full confidence in Kiyani. He's Pakistan's professional soldier and not interested in power and politics. But the truth is, I would have said that about Musharraf in 1999."

In Pakistan, U.S. Envoy Courts No. 2 General

 

[fatman17]

here's another view...take your pick...available dime a dozen.

Musharraf's deputy a reluctant linchpin
No. 2 officer called cautious, respected

By Kim Barker | Tribune foreign correspondent

9:56 AM CST, November 20, 2007

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - As embattled President Pervez Musharraf and his political opponents grapple over the country's future, an equally crucial role may be played by a less known figure -- a blunt-talking, chain-smoking, golf-playing general who by all reports would like the army to get out of politics.

Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, 55, Musharraf's designated No. 2 man in the military, is slotted to be the next army chief of Pakistan when Musharraf gives up his uniform, as he has promised to do. That would give him enormous influence in a country with a history of military rule and coups. A major question is just how loyal he and Pakistan's other generals are to Musharraf during the current crisis.

Kayani's importance is such that U.S. envoy John Negroponte, who knows the general from previous intelligence work, met with him twice on his whirlwind visit to Pakistan last weekend.
So far, Kayani and the army are standing cautiously behind Musharraf, even if some soldiers privately disagreed with Musharraf's decision to declare a state of emergency Nov. 3, analysts and diplomats say. The top generals are more likely to just watch and wait for now; their main concern is whether a deteriorating situation might force them to confront civilian protesters and further undermine the military's shaken standing.

"I think currently the men are behind him," said a Western military official who spoke on condition of anonymity. "They're letting the politics play out."

By his own schedule, Musharraf came a step closer to resigning as army chief of staff Monday when Pakistan's Supreme Court dismissed all but one legal challenge against his being president and military commander at the same time. Musharraf suspended the constitution earlier this month on the eve of the expected ruling, which could have declared his presidency invalid.

Monday's ruling was made by a newly constituted court, which Musharraf packed with sympathetic justices after the emergency decree. It is expected on Thursday to reject the final challenge, which is a minor one.

Considered a key U.S. ally in the war on terror, Musharraf has said he would voluntarily take off his uniform -- which he has referred to as a "second skin" -- and serve solely as a civilian after the court dismissed the challenges.

Tangled history

For most of Pakistan's history, the army has been heavily involved in politics. Four army chiefs have seized power in military coups, including Musharraf in 1999.

The army's reputation has been battered this year. Troops are increasingly disgruntled with fighting their own people as part of Pakistan's U.S.-backed battle against Islamic radicals near the border with Afghanistan. Since July, when soldiers raided a militant mosque in Islamabad, at least 254 soldiers and paramilitary troops have been killed. Suicide bombings are now a regular event; there have been 28 since July. More than 300 troops have been captured by militants since late August, although most have been released.

But the top military brass will continue to obey Musharraf, unless the streets erupt in violence or Musharraf refuses to step down as army chief in the coming weeks, analysts and retired generals said. The Pakistani army is a disciplined force that would only act if conditions worsened, they said.

Musharraf has nominated all the army's top brass down to the two-star generals, analysts said. He is related to two of the highest ranking generals through marriage.

Pakistan's streets have been largely quiet since the emergency. Despite the fact that Musharraf has cracked down on opponents, arresting thousands, his moves have been almost mild compared to those of his military predecessors. Tens of thousands of people rallied in the streets under those regimes, clashing violently with the army.

But in the current crisis, no opposition leader has been able to mobilize supporters. Many people express a dislike for Musharraf and what he has done, but they also say they don't like his political opponents enough to risk clashing with police.

"The only thing that will compel Kayani to take over is if there was a massive street movement, and the civil police couldn't control it," said a former top official in Musharraf's government who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

"The argument within the establishment, which is very convincing for them, is that if they [the establishment] were so unpopular there would be civil strife, massive street demonstrations. That's what keeps Musharraf going."

Broken promises

Pakistani analysts are divided on whether Musharraf will actually leave his army post. Twice before, he has failed to honor promises to step down as chief. But many feel that Musharraf will have no choice because of his dwindling support.

"I get a feeling there's a point of no return -- the army will not accept him in uniform any longer," said Talat Masood, a retired army general and military analyst.
Musharraf's anointed successor in the army is Kayani, the universally well-regarded, pro-Western general who once ran the country's most powerful spy agency.

Kayani is close not just to Musharraf, but also to his political rival, Benazir Bhutto, serving as her deputy military secretary when she was prime minister.

Kayani also is friendly with U.S. officials, including Negroponte, largely through the general's former job atop the Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency.
Since his appointment last month as vice chief, Kayani, considered to be extremely loyal to Musharraf, has tried to focus on the war on terror, especially in remote tribal areas, and improve the army's sinking morale, analysts and Western officials said. He has largely ignored politics.

Kayani "is a military man," said a Western diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity. "He's very professional. And he's extremely concerned about the low morale -- and it is very low."

Those who have worked with Kayani said he is extremely cautious and dismissed reports that he would stage any coup while Musharraf is chief.

"He doesn't come off as a reckless fellow," said the former top official in Musharraf's government. "He comes off as a cool and collected fellow. He's certainly not a commando."

Yet retired army officials and analysts say that despite the many powerful army commanders who run key agencies, everyone would look to Kayani if the top brass were forced to consider a potential takeover.

"God forbid, if that happens, it would not happen without his consent," said one retired officer who is loyal to Musharraf and requested anonymity.

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kbarker@tribune.com

 

[blain2]

Its just so funny to read all these observations by "Western" military analysts. Musharraf was at least as professional, if not more, as Kiyani throughout his military career.

Its not that Musharraf or Kiyani have a desire for power, the situation they were in and the past precedents have allowed Generals to take power. So all this talk about Kiyani's professionalism should be seen in the context of Musharraf. Like Kiyani, Musharraf never wanted to take on the leadership of Pakistan..they guy was happy playing golf in Colombo with the SL Army Chief when all this happened.

Everyone talks about Kiyani being the DG-ISI as a wow factor forgetting that more importantly, he was DGMO Pakistan Army (like Musharraf). This one assignment gives the officers such an in-depth idea about the operational plans and capabilities that it leads them to make better decisions about what the Army is really capable of doing and not doing.

 

[jantobanto]

any way, gen. kiyani is very loyal man to musharf, thinking about his trun around is very difficult way for him.
1. he cant trust CIA, or USAs adim.

2. he will be seen as a trator in the in the army, and in tht case, there wouldbe many officers, hoping do the same.

3. it will bring down whole army and moral surely, will go collapse not down?

4.all the politicians who were trying to bring down musharf and his govt. will not accept any power play by army and make gen. kiyani another MUSHARF.

5. in the past it wasnt the second in command, who revolt agianst the commander inchief,always command inchief, who transfer the power to his vice.

6.even MUSHARF isnt popular, at this momment but , still he have very strong backing of c.commanders, which gen . kiyani cant get suddenly?

7. gen.kiyani is realy a right hand, for musarf ,,and very fine planer he is not fool to destroy all , important stucture, which was built by MUSHARF and people like himself, for the sake of his own lust of power.

 

[fatman17]

for the sake of his own lust of power.

u say everything right!!!

 

[jantobanto]

the timming of MUSHARFs getting into grip of the power and the circumstanses, were totaly different from crunnent situation.
gen. kiyani maybe looking for space , and mr, musharf may be looking for a break from a very streesfull opreational service which he had already.

and may be pak army is looking for a fulltime chief because of the working load on musharaf?

musharaf wanted to give its independent chief because he wants , to attack
militancy more, so because of his day to day duties as a president and cheif of army staff, he( musharf)cant concentrate on army affairs.



and may be musharf wants make the world, understand tht he not like, gen. ZIA
who can be targeted by CIA, EASILY????????????