GDP growth rate of over 5.5pc to hurt economy: Shaukat Tarin

[Blacklight]

taxation doesn't always solve problems. If the imported goods are a necessity because we don't produce alternatives locally, taxation doesn't have major impact on bringing down imports.

A major chunk of our imports is Petroleum products?

 

[Norwegian]

Useless to actually present facts to these people. Iam not engaging with him anymore bcz he has started to bark after running out of arguments.

 

[Pandora]

So you went for bankrupting the economy? Was that your solution to all that?View attachment 790759

You are looking at graph wrong. Turn your mobile upside down to see real progress. (Patwari ki Logic)

 

[Norwegian]

First increase trade deficit by 20 billion and the. expect PTI to reduce dependence on imports PMLN created itself? I mean tell me the logic here by using your enormous functioning brain with IQ of over a 1000. This is so typical of you Patwaris that when forced to face facts you start barking and make personal attacks.

Here is the logic you are looking in him

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

... First increase trade deficit by 20 billion and the. expect PTI to reduce dependence on imports PMLN created itself? ...

Like I said, use couple of functioning brain cells and explain why PTI cannot reduce the trade deficit back to $20 billion like it was in the good old days of 2013?

What's stopping the incompetent PTI Government? It's not rocket science.

 

[PakSword]

A major chunk of our imports is Petroleum products?

Many other things as well.
We can understand the import of oil, machinery and vehicles.. but what's the excuse of importing plastics, paper, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals etc etc.. why we couldn't establish industries to manufacture these goods? Our neighbor is doing just fine here.

 

[Norwegian]

Like I said, use couple of functioning brain cells and explain why PTI cannot reduce the trade deficit back to $20 billion like it was in the good old days of 2013?

What's stopping the incompetent PTI Government? It's not rocket science.

It's called macro economics. Once imports are increased you become dependent on them and they cannot be reduced substantially because Pakistan is already import dependent country

 

[PakSword]

Like I said, use couple of functioning brain cells and explain why PTI cannot reduce the trade deficit back to $20 billion like it was in the good old days of 2013?

What's stopping the incompetent PTI Government? It's not rocket science.

Bro no offence but I have to explain with a simple example.

It takes much more time to repair a punctured tire than what it takes to puncture it.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Bro no offence but I have to explain with a simple example.

It takes much more time to repair a punctured tire than what it takes to puncture it.

Bahi Sahib, the tyre had a very large tear on it already. It needed replacing altogether. Now, for a poor man, this was expensive, cost him full month's wage. But hey, it helped him travel to work again.

 

[Pandora]

Like I said, use couple of functioning brain cells and explain why PTI cannot reduce the trade deficit back to $20 billion like it was in the good old days of 2013?

What's stopping the incompetent PTI Government? It's not rocket science.

Uncle g meine thoray say brain cells day deyo jo hain kafi nae hain.

Kind of reminds me one time Aba g beat the living crap out of me bcz i failed in one subject. Then next moment he started massaging my back. I told him aba g chitroal karday time ni lagda laikin recovery vich hun 2-3 lagan gay iss vastay choar deyo filhal . Akalmand kay liye ishara hi kafi hota hai laikin sanu ki pata functioning brain cell jo thoray hain.

Bahi Sahib, the tyre had a very large tear on it already. It needed replacing altogether. Now, for a poor man, this was expensive, cost him full month's wage. But hey, it helped him travel to work again.

Only thing is you didnt replace the tire but rather punctured it 20 more times. Now you want PTI govt to replace the whole tire without paying the cost of it.

 

[PakSword]

Bahi Sahib, the tyre had a very large tear on it already. It needed replacing altogether. Now, for a poor man, this was expensive, cost him full month's wage. But hey, it helped him travel to work again.

Lol.. Replacement requires money.. what if when you started driving, you found out that the previous driver didn't leave a penny in the dashboard.. forget that, the extra tire wasn't there as well.. the previous driver sold that to buy new shoes for himself and his family!

 

[Norwegian]

Lol.. Replacement requires money.. what if when you started driving, you found out that the previous driver didn't leave a penny in the dashboard.. forget that, the extra tire wasn't there as well.. the previous driver sold that to buy new shoes for himself and his family!

You guys keep discussing with a wall. It has no affect on him.

 

[Patriot forever]

By managed I did not mean managed by central bankers or politicians, rather I should have said "moderate". Meaning not too much devaluation, and there's no opinion of mine in this statement, stability is important even if we are to see PKR fall as it has done over the years.

A very deep analysis on your part regarding role of SBP. Few people understand the actual role of SBP ( summarized in your statement perfectly)

SBP is doing exactly what you said. In Pakistan there has never been a more professional SBP team doing what they are supposed to do. Making use of tools at their disposal perfectly (currency, intervention and policy rate). Basically fight the volatility, speculation and make the transition subtle ( both ways appreciarion/depreciation).
They didn't let the currency appreciate (at one point just on market our REER crossed 100 in March and that level was unsustainable so depreciation was on cards) and also didn't let the currency depreciate on auto and intervined ($1.2b, which has stopped in the recent week as sentiment and speculation is dying) and to subtle the impact not manipulated the outcome ( fought against developing Afghan situation, international commodity inflation cycle and resulting speculation especially in the backdrop of IMF negotiation) maintained a supportive REER value. ( REER value fell to 94-96 in October).

Now our currency is very close to where it should be given our macros. In the range of 165-170 ( our currency will be perfectly placed at 96-98, making an ideal environment for local industrialization and exports negating the effects of higher energy ( electricity) prices. We have cheaper gas and diesel)

Yes I know the swings in REER value are on a higher side (+/- 3) but this has more to do with Pakistan not been a mature market ( just a few years on market based currency), Capacity of state Bank to regulate and the holistic unprofessional market to deal with where speculation triumph indicators.

If we were to truely analyse currency, it should be seen in sufficient time frame ( that's what investors or businesses look at). From 2019 to 2021 that comes at around ~5%. From October 2020 to October 2021 ~6%. The sudden depreciation when we moved from away fixed and subsequent currency catching up can easily be explained. From 2013-2021 5-6%.

Every developing world currency not artificially fixed depreciates against developed country. The only way to make it more stable and in line with currencies of e.g. India and Bangladesh is to increase your dollar earnings ( stability in macros).

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Uncle g meine thoray say brain cells day deyo jo hain kafi nae hain. ...

Again, you are uttering bongiyan after bongiyan like as if you know a thing or two.

I'll ask you for the third time, why can't the incompetent PTI Government reduce the trade deficit back to $20 billion like it was back in the good old days of 2013?

It's a simple question. Which part of it you don't understand?

Or, are you thinking maybe today Pakistan needs those $20 billion of extra imports but between between 2013-2018, somehow it didn't?

Are you simply that daft that you think imports were increased unnecessarily when country was suffering 18-hours of load-shedding and economy was badly suffering?

Do you even know that Pakistani population had increased from around 190 million in 2013 to around 211 million in 2018?

Was 126-day long dharna going to pay for this increase which cost the country 2% GDP loss or did some invisible industry exist in Pakistan that was going to somehow sustain the increase of 21 million people?

What about $12.5 billion of external debt that was rescheduled with the Paris in December 2001 to be paid after a 15-years grace period?

 

[FuturePAF]

You need industry, not just large scale manufacturing, but small and medium sized manufacturing units. You need industries that can fulfill the demand without resorting on imports much. You need industries that can turn your raw materials and semi finished goods to finished products to add substantial value.

That doesn't happen overnight!

True, but there are policies that promote importation and there are policies that promote exports.