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Gallup chief rubbishes misconceptions about CPEC

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Gallup chief rubbishes misconceptions about CPEC



September 27, 2017





KARACHI - China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a kick start of Pakistan’s long journey towards economic progress and development and whatever the concerns about this project are being expressed are baseless as Pakistan has become a battle hardened nation and is fit to match the new millennium challenges,” said Gallup Pakistan Chairman Dr Aijaz Shafi Gilani on Tuesday.


Delivering a lecture here on “CPEC and China’s BELT & ROAD INITIATIVE (BRI)”, organised here at Baitul-Hikmah Auditorium, Madinatul-Hikmah, under the joint auspices of Idara-i-Said, Hamdard University and Hamdard Foundation Pakistan, Dr Aijaz said, “The first concern shown about the CPEC was how we would be able to pay back a big loan of $42 billion? A nation that spends $45 billion yearly and Rs330 billion on sacrificial animals in a day could also bear the burden of $42 billion’s loan,” he said, and added, “The second concern was when a richest country like America had failed to address our poverty how come a country like China could do it.”

He said the answer was clear that now China was no more a poor country. “It has a surplus reservoir of $400 billion,” Aijaz said, and added, “The third concern, it is said, was that Chinese workers would replace Pakistani workers and render them jobless. We must know that China has become a factory of the world and its workers have a lot of work even in their own country.”


He further said, “Moreover China is now inclined towards heavy industry and a bullet train was being made in China for Germany.”

The fourth concern, he explained, was that China would become a new East India Company. “This concern doesn’t have weight since the world has become a global village, and in this age it is not possible for any foreign power to become a colonial power.”

“Furthermore, he said, “China has categorically denied that it wants to become a colonial power.”

Regarding the fifth concern, however, that China would overshadow our industry, Aijaz said it carried some weight and we should take care of it and some necessary measures could be taken in this regard.

“The fact is that huge amount of capital has accumulated in China and the government of China wants to invest the same in other countries. It does not want to give aid, but is interested in trade,” he said, adding, “China wants to improve the purchasing power of Pakistanis and other countries where it has been investing, for when they will have the purchasing power they will be able to purchase China’s goods. China is now the biggest trading partner of Pakistan, previously US was.”

He said Shaheed Hakim Mohammed Said was the first man, who had advocated Pak-China friendship at public level, when in 1963 he had led a delegation of physicians, including his school going daughter, Sadia Rashid to China, and wrote a comprehensive book: ‘Medicine in China’ after returning from there.

A session of question /answer was also held at the lecture and guest speaker gave answers to the questions.

Prof. Dr. Syed Shabibul Hasan, Vice Chancellor, Hamdard University offered vote of thanks. Mrs. Sadia Rashid, Chancellor, Hamdard University presented Shield of replica of Holy Prophet’s stamp to Dr. Aijaz Shafi.
 
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Bingo.Write this in gold letters please.

Purchasing power is fine but will come later on in the development cycle.

The first immediate goal that China has already achieved with/for Pakistan is to change the negative "narrative" that was gathering critical mass in the international community, i.e. "Pakistan is a basket case, look elsewhere..."

In the rarefied environment of Hi-Finance and Global Trade, it is equivalent to downgrading a particular company stock in order to achieve a 'discount' whereby the company can become target of arbitrage at the mercy of a larger buyer.
Now who that buyer in the vicinity is.... I will leave that to you.

Next China wants small nations in Asia and Africa to see this Sino-Pak relationship as a template to imagine similar relationships between them and China. Thus the chances that China will bankrupt Pakistan and send you scurrying to IMF are minimal- unless you ask for it by creating havoc with political and economic stability by continually changing policies, deadlines, and strategic direction as agreed upon.

Beyond that, China has come up with a rather clever strategy to beat the middle income trap that involves Pakistan tangentially. Your role/part is to ramp up industrial production of small widgets while keeping cost of production relatively low. China can then source Pakistan's relatively lower tech, cheaper goods to produce value-added High-end products. Indirectly this will impact adversely on Pakistan's regional competitor nations- but at present the scales are tipped in their favor so plan to aggressively take advantage of CPEC arrangements to become integral to Chinese Global supply-chain and logistics ahead of other nations; and in "preference" to other south Asian producers vying for the top spot to sell to China. If Pakistan picks up China's 'slack' in low-end productivity- guess who is the big net loser?

Another good reason is to be able to escape the Malaccca Trap; thus the Chinese have opened a 'backdoor' into heart of Asia. At first they picked Kazakhstan, but that quickly became problematic. I estimate Pakistan to be China's second choice- lucky you! A global behemoth like China seeks certain level of infrastructure and interoperability in the host nation. Thus the drive to ramp up Pakistan's infrastructure. But I think until the high-capacity (not necessarily high-speed) railroad is built between China and Gawadar, the corridor will not realize its full potential. A single highway is not sufficient.

Once Pakistan is fully integrated into Chinese economic Eco-system; only then will Pakistan be able to exorcise her historical/existential demons. Perhaps even see herself as more than a south Asian peripheral nation. But this makes China much more important to Pakistan and vice versa. But if you keep quibbling China may yet walk away from the 50 billion bet - after all it is chump change for Xi. So it is upto you!
 
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I suppose China's goal is to help Pakistan develop into an economy that has similar level of income and purchasing power. The benefit of the investment is obvious– a combined market of 1.6b population with even $10–15k per capita i.e. middle income will simply be massive. :yahoo:
 
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