NEW DELHI: As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh heads to France
, a key element in India's civil nuclear agreement with that country should give thegovernment comfort when he sits down for talks on nuclear trade with President Nicholas Sarkozy. The agreement permits India to reprocess French-origin nuclear fuel on its own. France will offer to reprocess only if India asks it to.
Russia is also learnt to have agreed to let India reprocess fuel that it may supply.
The understanding with the two nuclear suppliers is one of the reasons why India is not overly concerned about the recent G-8 statement on non-proliferation where the grouping apparently raised the bar on transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technologies (ENR) to countries that don't have it. At this point, India is only looking to be able to reprocess foreign-origin fuel, which in principle has been granted by France and Russia in their civil nuclear agreements which are yet to be made public. The other reason for its being reassured is that since India already possesses ENR technology, it can argue that this does not apply to it.
As a matter of fact, India will start talks before August 2 on a reprocessing agreement with the US to "operationalise" the nuclear deal, even though the Obama administration, which played a leading role in crafting new rules to prevent transfer of ENR technologies to non-NPT signatories, has been rather activist about non-proliferation issues.
It is also pertinent that there is no "ban" on ENR technologies to India or any non-NPT country yet.
India will come under pressure on several nuclear issues, like CTBT and FMCT. But on ENR transfers, it is likely, sources in the government feel, to get a pass for a whole host of reasons.
The G-8 statement is clear that there is no consensus in the 45-member NSG on tightening controls of ENR technologies to the have-nots. The NSG in its May 2008 plenary meeting started a debate on a draft text of a stronger set of guidelines to govern the transfer of ENR technologies but there was no agreement, primarily because countries like Canada, South Africa, Australia and Korea all wanted to get into commercial enrichment.
However, it's true the US has been shifting goalposts on the issue. First, it said there should be "criteria-based" approach for ENR exports for countries that don't have it. Then it agreed to an approach that would decide on a case-by-case basis on the credentials of the country that applied. But this "subjective" argument was dismissed by Brazil and Argentina, as was the argument that the IAEA additional protocol should be made a supply condition.
At a November 2008 meeting of the NSG, there were more countries willing to accept the US proposal of using "black-box" technologies for ENR exports to have-not countries -- this means only the supplier would have access to the technology, not the user. While there are more countries willing to accept this provision, there is no consensus on this either.
The G-8 exhortation for countries to implement this last text on a "national basis", that is, on sovereign interpretation is an American insertion, said diplomats. The G-8 text says, "While noting that the NSG has not yet reached consensus on this issue, we agree that the NSG discussions have yielded useful and constructive proposals contained in the NSG's clean text developed at the November 20, 2008 consultative group meeting. Pending completion of work in the NSG, we agree to implement this text on a national basis in the next year."
There are two bottomlines that have to be remembered. First, India has a huge ace -- that climate change negotiations cannot go anywhere unless India has a viable alternative to hydrocarbon use, and that is nuclear. This is an argument that will trump many others in the current race for a climate change deal.
Second, the real target of the G-8, or NSG, is not India, which is not a proliferation threat, but Iran, which is. If ENR technology was to be denied to non-NPT countries, it would leave Iran within the tent and keep India out. However much the world may dislike the Indian nuclear deal, that is really not anyone's intention