Future of SD-10 in PAF?

[mikkix]

By joining China against the will of US, we will now in a huge risk and will be short in defense technologies after that. Now question is can China will compensate us because if we join US against China then we will have every weapons of new technologies from US just like India is now trying to do.
Can we dont have ability to make good relations to both of them or is it another phrase like "either with us or against us?

 

[amardeep mishra]

Most of Chinese hardware is license produced or illegal copied Russian or Israeli hardware. There are hardly innovations out of China. You can harp your horn all you like, but being the largest customer of chinese defense exports, we know what works and what is junk from China.

Hi dear @Bilal Khan 777
There is no doubt that a lot of chinese products especially weapon systems that we see are either licensed versions or illegal rip offs of russian/israeli/western systems. There are different ways countries aim to design weapon system,i remember a very recent talk by a chinese professor in delhi(i did not attend it-my friend did!) wherein he mentioned how different countries have different approach to developing weapon systems.There were two broad ways he could identify and that are-
1)Playing catch-up with western established manufacturers or
2)Doing everything either legal or otherwise to bridge the gap
He clearly mentioned china follows 2nd option and india 1st one. China has gradually moved up the ladder or moving up the technology chain.
But it is also erroneous to assume that there is no "innovation out of china".Chinese companies are now leaders in bulk of patent filing. In terms of sheer specification comparision between chinese rip offs and equivalent western counterpart,an older rip off(or a chinese weapon design maybe till mid-late 2000s) would come out to be 2nd best.However as china moves up the technology ladder this difference would only narrow up- but it will certainly take a long-i really mean a long time to achieve parity or even surpass the western "way of research" or "quantitative/qualitative" specs of weapons they design.

For one reason (e.g. corruption allegations) or another ("IP theft in India" - his words, not mine), Denel was not able to effectively enter the Indian market. "It was a regretful decision" (again, his words, not mine).

Hi dear @Quwa
In terms of weapons research,indian govt doesnt really support IP theft. On the contrary it is considered a safe place in terms of protection of IP rights.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Hi dear @Bilal Khan 777
There is no doubt that a lot of chinese products especially weapon systems that we see are either licensed versions or illegal rip offs of russian/israeli/western systems. There are different ways countries aim to design weapon system,i remember a very recent talk by a chinese professor in delhi(i did not attend it-my friend did!) wherein he mentioned how different countries have different approach to developing weapon systems.There were two broad ways he could identify and that are-
1)Playing catch-up with western established manufacturers or
2)Doing everything either legal or otherwise to bridge the gap
He clearly mentioned china follows 2nd option and india 1st one. China has gradually moved up the ladder or moving up the technology chain.
But it is also erroneous to assume that there is no "innovation out of china".Chinese companies are now leaders in bulk of patent filing. In terms of sheer specification comparision between chinese rip offs and equivalent western counterpart,an older rip off(or a chinese weapon design maybe till mid-late 2000s) would come out to be 2nd best.However as china moves up the technology ladder this difference would only narrow up- but it will certainly take a long-i really mean a long time to achieve parity or even surpass the western "way of research" or "quantitative/qualitative" specs of weapons they design.


Hi dear @Quwa
In terms of weapons research,indian govt doesnt really support IP theft. On the contrary it is considered a safe place in terms of protection of IP rights.

Was just quoting a disgruntled South African.

 

[MastanKhan]

@Bilal Khan 777[/USER]

What a tangled web we weave-----

 

[Falcon26]

The SD-10 was less of a bad decision than it was a necessity of the time. In the early 2000s there were hardly any decent active radar-homing (ARM) AAM solutions available to the PAF. For example, there was the R-Darter, which - while an ARM - was becoming a dated solution, and Denel's next-gen BVRAAM programs (e.g. T-Darter) were just not entering development.

In fact, I was speaking to a South African engineer familiar with Denel's dealings with Pakistan a few weeks ago; the company had hoped to engage in a number of projects, but in the mid-2000s, the BRICS mantra and India's lure for lucrative contracts encouraged the company's leadership close the door on Pakistan (and in the process abandon a number of promising programs).

For one reason (e.g. corruption allegations) or another ("IP theft in India" - his words, not mine), Denel was not able to effectively enter the Indian market. "It was a regretful decision" (again, his words, not mine).

The PAF was interested in the MICA-RF, but that tunnel collapsed.

Besides that, there wasn't much of anything else, besides perhaps some even older semi-active radar-homing (SARH) solutions such as the Aspide. Unfortunately, and to @Bilal Khan 777's point, the PAF has yet to secure a true next-gen AAM solution - i.e. a platform that will stay relevant for not a few years, but at least 10-15 years. In that regard, it is a matter of studying who is in practical possession of the best concepts.

Can't Pakistan somehow invest 100-million in Denel and gain ownership stake of the company?

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

This is from a novice and naïve person. What's about the Turkish systems? There appears to be a number of projects for BVR, AESA, IIR etc. systems going-on. I have to admit Turkish folks are increasingly getting proficient in defense projects. Reis Erdo'an has put his reputation at stake for these projects. Software might not be an issue. As for the hardware, if the design is available, sanction prone components may be replaced with Chinese chips. China has a huge semiconductor drive to get key technologies. I am pretty sure within 5 years they will be fabricating lot of key chips, e.g., processors, analog etc. They're getting good with process technologies, so military grade ICs may be within their reach. Since GaN based devices are fabricated by Turkish folks themselves it should be a huge relief. Just few random thoughts...

 

[Bilal Khan 777]

This is from a novice and naïve person. What's about the Turkish systems? There appears to be a number of projects for BVR, AESA, IIR etc. systems going-on. I have to admit Turkish folks are increasingly getting proficient in defense projects. Reis Erdo'an has put his reputation at stake for these projects. Software might not be an issue. As for the hardware, if the design is available, sanction prone components may be replaced with Chinese chips. China has a huge semiconductor drive to get key technologies. I am pretty sure within 5 years they will be fabricating lot of key chips, e.g., processors, analog etc. They're getting good with process technologies, so military grade ICs may be within their reach. Since GaN based devices are fabricated by Turkish folks themselves it should be a huge relief. Just few random thoughts...

It is quite possible that many of the future weapons and platforms operated by Pakistan are of Turkish origin.

Was just quoting a disgruntled South African.

now now, be careful before the reference brigade starts asking for you for references and passport copies.

Can't Pakistan somehow invest 100-million in Denel and gain ownership stake of the company?

I don't think that would be possible. Such a proposition works for UAE as then south african talent can move there. That may not be feasible for Pakistan now. The technical risk has to be owned by manufacturer, not the buyer.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Can't Pakistan somehow invest 100-million in Denel and gain ownership stake of the company?

Denel is a state-owned enterprise, so the South African Gov't won't be parting from it as a whole.

What Pakistan could potentially do (though still unlikely) is pair an armed forces acquisition to commercial offsets, which in turn can be fed into a new subsidiary in Pakistan OR commercial work for Pakistani state owned enterprises (SOE), such as HIT.

Our MODP is vocally eager to pivot the SOEs such that they don't depend on government funding in order to operate. However, this is only possible if these SOEs get commercial work outside of the armed forces' requirements, and the best known way to pull that off is to sign onto commercial offset deals.

For example, if the Army were to buy another 200 MRAPs, it could buy them from Denel, but with a clause that requires 49% of the contract value to be re-invested in Pakistan. Denel could do that by (1) setting up a subsidiary in Pakistan or (2) contract component work out to HIT for not just the Pakistan Army, but all MRAP orders (even those from Nigeria, for example).

In the best case scenario, once your offset obligations are complete, the original vendor will keep contracting work to you. So in the end, you could (in theory, though rarely) get 100%+ of the contract back into the economy.

However in Pakistan's case, I don't think armoured vehicles would be the start of such a venture. The best chance we have for such stuff is actually the assault rifle program, and this is because POF is a much more mature SOE, the Army has massive scale and real buying power (at least in terms of small arms), and we are actually intent on making it happen.

The private sector subsidiary is a nice idea, but Pakistan's business - and general - environment is just not conducive for such measures. I guarantee you Denel will have as much "fun" China is having with CPEC in trying to work with the wider nation to get a factory line going, unfortunately.

now now, be careful before the reference brigade starts asking for you for references and passport copies.

I can out lawyer them.

 

[Falcon26]

Denel is a state-owned enterprise, so the South African Gov't won't be parting from it as a whole.

What Pakistan could potentially do (though still unlikely) is pair an armed forces acquisition to commercial offsets, which in turn can be fed into a new subsidiary in Pakistan OR commercial work for Pakistani state owned enterprises (SOE), such as HIT.

Our MODP is vocally eager to pivot the SOEs such that they don't depend on government funding in order to operate. However, this is only possible if these SOEs get commercial work outside of the armed forces' requirements, and the best known way to pull that off is to sign onto commercial offset deals.

For example, if the Army were to buy another 200 MRAPs, it could buy them from Denel, but with a clause that requires 49% of the contract value to be re-invested in Pakistan. Denel could do that by (1) setting up a subsidiary in Pakistan or (2) contract component work out to HIT for not just the Pakistan Army, but all MRAP orders (even those from Nigeria, for example).

In the best case scenario, once your offset obligations are complete, the original vendor will keep contracting work to you. So in the end, you could (in theory, though rarely) get 100%+ of the contract back into the economy.

However in Pakistan's case, I don't think armoured vehicles would be the start of such a venture. The best chance we have for such stuff is actually the assault rifle program, and this is because POF is a much more mature SOE, the Army has massive scale and real buying power (at least in terms of small arms), and we are actually intent on making it happen.

The private sector subsidiary is a nice idea, but Pakistan's business - and general - environment is just not conducive for such measures. I guarantee you Denel will have as much "fun" China is having with CPEC in trying to work with the wider nation to get a factory line going, unfortunately.

I can out lawyer them.

Thanks for the very well detailed reply. My point wasn't Pakistan owning Denel 100% but perhaps something more modest like 10-15%.

 

[MastanKhan]

The SD-10 was less of a bad decision than it was a necessity of the time. In the early 2000s there were hardly any decent active radar-homing (ARM) AAM solutions available to the PAF. For example, there was the R-Darter, which - while an ARM - was becoming a dated solution, and Denel's next-gen BVRAAM programs (e.g. T-Darter) were just not entering development.

In fact, I was speaking to a South African engineer familiar with Denel's dealings with Pakistan a few weeks ago; the company had hoped to engage in a number of projects, but in the mid-2000s, the BRICS mantra and India's lure for lucrative contracts encouraged the company's leadership close the door on Pakistan (and in the process abandon a number of promising programs).

For one reason (e.g. corruption allegations) or another ("IP theft in India" - his words, not mine), Denel was not able to effectively enter the Indian market. "It was a regretful decision" (again, his words, not mine).

The PAF was interested in the MICA-RF, but that tunnel collapsed.

Besides that, there wasn't much of anything else, besides perhaps some even older semi-active radar-homing (SARH) solutions such as the Aspide. Unfortunately, and to @Bilal Khan 777's point, the PAF has yet to secure a true next-gen AAM solution - i.e. a platform that will stay relevant for not a few years, but at least 10-15 years. In that regard, it is a matter of studying who is in practical possession of the best concepts.

Hi,

2002 was the time that the Paf should have latched onto the French---grabbed their legs and said---we ain't gonna let you go---.

You kids still have no clue---what severe consequences that you are going to face in the coming years for that NO---. Some of you might start to understand what had happened and others---it is too late for them.

From a position of victory---we are being dragged into a position of submission---. Why---because our Air Force is weak---. Why is it weak---because our air force generals either made blunders---.
A total disregard for the needs of the nation.

9/11---as much as it was an eye opener---it was also an opportune moment for pakistan as well.

The U S was never a trusted ally---the swedes---you could not depend upon---the russians---not at that time---the chinese---still struggling---the english---nothing to show at that time---the only one left was france---.

The tragedy over here is---that they offered a full fledged package and the Paf generals got lost in the numbers---.

They simply did not have the vision to grasp at the moment---they simply did not have the vision to see WHAT was being offered---and HOW GOOD that OVERALL deal on the Rafale was---.

There is more to it when you pay a top notch price for a certain equipment.

The Paf generals says that they did not see it coming---how is that possible and believable---I saw it coming and I have been crying about it since 2003 either on one forum or the other---.

How could they not see it coming---the had de-throned the enemy from its mighty perch---how could they not anticipate the action of the enemy---even though that action was very visible to all and sundry---.

Well---then it comes down to another question---did the Paf generals intentionally sabotage the deal or any other deal that needed to be made in urgent---because they had decidedly made a decision that they are not going to prepare to fight india.

They will wave a white flag---first be refusing the Rafale deal---then by donating the funds for the F16 for flood relief and thirdly going for a simple small single engine lower tier JF17.

It will keep the air force jobs---with the usual claims of paf's inferior equpiment is superior to eneymy's superior equipment---the young pakistanis will be happy---so no threats no worries---pay checks are coming---better jobs are waiting after retirement---so no big deal---.

You kids need to learn something---never trust the integrity of the nation on unproven and untested weapons systems when yu are under duress---.

Always go for a TRUSTED NAME----and you will never have a problem.

SD10 is an extremely potent missile---in its current format---and in years to come---it will get deadlier---but if we had made the right decisions---we could have had more potent systems 10 years ago----.

 

[Falcon26]

This is from a novice and naïve person. What's about the Turkish systems? There appears to be a number of projects for BVR, AESA, IIR etc. systems going-on. I have to admit Turkish folks are increasingly getting proficient in defense projects. Reis Erdo'an has put his reputation at stake for these projects. Software might not be an issue. As for the hardware, if the design is available, sanction prone components may be replaced with Chinese chips. China has a huge semiconductor drive to get key technologies. I am pretty sure within 5 years they will be fabricating lot of key chips, e.g., processors, analog etc. They're getting good with process technologies, so military grade ICs may be within their reach. Since GaN based devices are fabricated by Turkish folks themselves it should be a huge relief. Just few random thoughts...

The progress being made by Turkey in the area of military production is simply phenomenal and it shames countries much bigger than it. The next decade will be very interesting to see what Turkey comes up with. It's certainly a model to follow for countries like Pakistan and Egypt among others.

 

[MastanKhan]

This is from a novice and naïve person. What's about the Turkish systems? There appears to be a number of projects for BVR, AESA, IIR etc. systems going-on. I have to admit Turkish folks are increasingly getting proficient in defense projects. Reis Erdo'an has put his reputation at stake for these projects. Software might not be an issue. As for the hardware, if the design is available, sanction prone components may be replaced with Chinese chips. China has a huge semiconductor drive to get key technologies. I am pretty sure within 5 years they will be fabricating lot of key chips, e.g., processors, analog etc. They're getting good with process technologies, so military grade ICs may be within their reach. Since GaN based devices are fabricated by Turkish folks themselves it should be a huge relief. Just few random thoughts...

Hi,

Thank you for your post---. When Turkey reaches its target production for a potent weapons system---missiles---EW suite etc---and Pakistan is a willing buyer---there will be every effort made by the powers to be to sabotage the deal---one way or the other---.

Why---because Pakistan has chosen to be the whipping boy out of CHOICE---and not because of fate.

Pakistan has chosen to be dealt with from a position of weakness and that is not a good place to be---.

Due to the political turmoil in the country---there are no checks and balances on the air force---they are an entity of their own---the defence minister is an illiterate person with no clue about weapons systems---.

I will just take the wait and see attitude---because that is all there is left.

@Bilal Khan 777[/USER]

What a tangled web we weave-----

Hi,

I think that Bilal Khan has launched a flare in the dark of the night-----and everyone is wondering---where did that come from---.

For the SD10---I again go back to what the chinese have to face---. All their monies and resources are invested in creating something to match the americans---setbacks are not going to slow them down at this stage---they will keep on pouring more and more till they break the glass ceiling---.

 

[Viper0011.]

Hi,

Thank you for your post---. When Turkey reaches its target production for a potent weapons system---missiles---EW suite etc---and Pakistan is a willing buyer---there will be every effort made by the powers to be to sabotage the deal---one way or the other---.

Why---because Pakistan has chosen to be the whipping boy out of CHOICE---and not because of fate.

Pakistan has chosen to be dealt with from a position of weakness and that is not a good place to be---.

Due to the political turmoil in the country---there are no checks and balances on the air force---they are an entity of their own---the defence minister is an illiterate person with no clue about weapons systems---.

I will just take the wait and see attitude---because that is all there is left.

What political term oil your are referring to? There's been a democratic system in place which has made leaps and bounds of progress on all fronts (including economics), so if you'd blame the laziness of your generals onto the political environment, the instability might be your brain's art and not real. Just saying. Let's call out who should be called out. You can't possibly blame a civilian government for the lack of proper military strategic planning.

Its like me saying all failures and problems the F-35 saw and cost many, many more billions, was because of Obama's government. These sounds spicy for a one minute tabloid news paper but have no facts behind it and is totally untrue.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Hi,

Thank you for your post---. When Turkey reaches its target production for a potent weapons system---missiles---EW suite etc---and Pakistan is a willing buyer---there will be every effort made by the powers to be to sabotage the deal---one way or the other---.

Why---because Pakistan has chosen to be the whipping boy out of CHOICE---and not because of fate.

Pakistan has chosen to be dealt with from a position of weakness and that is not a good place to be---.

Due to the political turmoil in the country---there are no checks and balances on the air force---they are an entity of their own---the defence minister is an illiterate person with no clue about weapons systems---.

I will just take the wait and see attitude---because that is all there is left.

Don't worry Mastan Bey. Time is changing and it's changing fast. New paradigms are replacing the old models. I can assure you no power on the earth can undo Pak-Turkey deals....

 

[MastanKhan]

What political term oil your are referring to? There's been a democratic system in place which has made leaps and bounds of progress on all fronts (including economics), so if you'd blame the laziness of your generals onto the political environment, the instability might be your brain's art and not real. Just saying. Let's call out who should be called out. You can't possibly blame a civilian government for the lack of proper military strategic planning.

Its like me saying all failures and problems the F-35 saw and cost many, many more billions, was because of Obama's government. These sounds spicy for a one minute tabloid news paper but have no facts behind it and is totally untrue.

Hi,

Viper---in as many ways you want to put---there is political ' term oil ' in the country---.

I am calling the fck ups of the Paf the fck ups of the Paf---the reason I am calling the defence minister and illiterate---because I know that he is---.