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French Presidential and Legislative Elections 2017-News and Updates

Polls weren't that innacurate for the second round,giving Fillon a victory of about 61-65% against Juppé.


Oh, well I just remember reading that some polls were showing that margin, shortly after the first round. But I hadn't kept up with them.

This primary was very important,because the winner could well be the next French president.


Well, I wanted to ask you, do the Socialists have any candidates (other than Hollande) running in this election?

I doubt about Le Pen,no way all other voters,will choose her,more people will vote in the second round just to block Le Pen and her party's election.
I don't know. I've heard this before BREXIT and in our recent elections. Almost every single pollster of note predicted a fairly easy Hillary Clinton win, buuuuuuut.........

I hope you are right but again, many of Mr. Trump's positions were pretty implausible but in the end, people voted their anger and didn't care about the details.


I share the same thoughts as Desertfalcon. It might seem at this point that Le Pen has no chance of winning, but don't rule it out. Anti-establishment feelings and xenophobia are sweeping the globe, especially in the western world. And I will warn the French conservatives: don't allow the far-right (Le Pen) to take the mantle of the working class. Too much talk of belt-tightening and a lack of focus on working and middle classes could be fatal. People want to know that someone is looking out for their economic interests (no matter how fake or incompetent, it seems), and they might vote for her if they feel that she will.

But another possibility is Fillon being very right conservative will scare more moderated conservative or people from the center.


You bring up another point that I think is very important. If too many left-wingers (and even moderates) stay home assuming that Fillon will win (or because they think he's too conservative to vote for), the unthinkable could happen. Something similar happened to Hillary Clinton in our election this month. Not enough people showed up to the polls because they didn't like her and assumed she would win. Because of this, Trump outperformed the polls and won. Le Pen could potentially do the same if you're not careful.
 
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I think France will exit the EU next. The EU is not a nation and it won't last long under German dictatorship.
 
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Well, I wanted to ask you, do the Socialists have any candidates (other than Hollande) running in this election?

Like the Republicans,they will organize a primary (votes in January) to designate the socialist candidate for 2017. The list isn't complete and candidates need some signatures from councillors and citizens member of the socialist party in order to participate,which many couldn't have.
Among the competitors,Montebourg and Hamon,former ministers of Hollande. Now the question is will Macron,Valls or Hollande participate ? The last is going to announce soon if he re-runs or abandon,but I doubt about the last one.

I share the same thoughts as Desertfalcon. It might seem at this point that Le Pen has no chance of winning, but don't rule it out. Anti-establishment feelings and xenophobia are sweeping the globe, especially in the western world. And I will warn the French conservatives: don't allow the far-right (Le Pen) to take the mantle of the working class. Too much talk of belt-tightening and a lack of focus on working and middle classes could be fatal. People want to know that someone is looking out for their economic interests (no matter how fake or incompetent, it seems), and they might vote for her if they feel that she will.

I suspect the National Front to be some sort of conspiracy theory created in order to allow mainstream parties to always stay in power,lol.
With our current electoral system,they have no chances to ever gain power. Let's even suppose she wins,by the general surprise,that would be useless if she doesn't have a majority in the parliament. Many people believe that once she won,it's over,she will make France great again tomorrow......but when your parliament is full of Republicans or socialists.... (who will never support you) and you barely have 10 maximum... @Louiq XIV @Taygibay @Kaptaan

BTW,the National Front is afraid that Fillon could steal many of their voters because of his various positions on different subjects (like immigration,identity,family,economy) who aren't that far from those of the NF,but the first one being more credible and more 'diplomatic' that the beloved Le Pen. They recognized that he was the most dangerous for them.


You bring up another point that I think is very important. If too many left-wingers (and even moderates) stay home assuming that Fillon will win (or because they think he's too conservative to vote for), the unthinkable could happen. Something similar happened to Hillary Clinton in our election this month. Not enough people showed up to the polls because they didn't like her and assumed she would win. Because of this, Trump outperformed the polls and won. Le Pen could potentially do the same if you're not careful.

USA ≠ France.
There are always two rounds and no way Marine will make 50% or more in the first one. People always go to vote en masse against her and the NF in the second round,no matter who the other candidate is. That's why they perform well in the 1st rounds,but fail always in the 2nd.
Our history is full of such exemples.

BTW,polls were always showing Marine and her party first....
 
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Adding to Vergennes' views, Fillon was the best ( read : to the Right enough ) candidate
to counter the FN. [ T'avais dit que Sarko ferait pschitt / Told you about Sarko fading out ]

Of the Left, Valls or Macron could run but the latter is untainted by his participation in the
present govt whereas the former is about as low as Flamby, our dejected prez.
Montebourg can't well get electors from the Right wing due to his posturing and declarations.

In any case, remember 2002 when Chirac got less than 20% in the first run and JM Le Pen,
Marine's dad, leading a pre-revamp party with hardcore histrionics barely cleared Socialist
Jospin low 16.2% with a higher 16.9 %. The report in the second stage only got him 700K
votes and a 17,79%. Chirac got everyone else's votes and was elected with a whooping 82%
reminiscent of African despots' scores!

So yes, Marine is cleaner and better positioned but the likelihood of her besting a Fillon is nil
& although she could be a threat to another candidate, only the lowly loved one named for the
Verenigde Provinciën would present her with a clear path to the presidency which won't happen.

Most likely unless he makes his coming out in the interval is Fillon.

And great day all, Tay.
 
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She will never win. Despite her growing popularity and her party's,she has little chances to win the presidency and have the assemblée nationale with a majority of FN members.
People are afraid of the National Front,and they will always move their @sses to vote against her party in any elections,despite her trying to wash her father's and the party's reputation.
Reason why they only hold dozen of communes (out of +36.000),no departements (out of 101) and no regions presidency. (out of 13). Presidency is just a dream to be honest. @Desertfalcon @Desert Fox
I think it's too soon to say but lets wait and see. Keep in mind people said the same thing about Trump but we know how that ended up :lol:



Front National leader Marine Le Pen has taken a sizeable lead over Nicolas Sarkozy in a new French presidential election poll.

The far-right leader had 29 per cent of the vote when pitted against Les Républicains’ former president, who was eight points behind, and held a 15-point lead over the Parti de Gauche’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the poll released by Ipsos.

It was one of five scenarios for the first round of France's 2017 presidential elections on 23 April, although one that did not include Les Républicains’ Alain Juppé – who remains strong favourite to succeed Francois Hollande as leader.

While Mr Juppé holds leads of between 4 and 7 per cent in three other scenarios including him, the results are likely to add to growing fears that the rise of global populism could see Ms Le Pen secure a surprise victory in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s US election win.

Under the French election system, barring the unlikely possibility one candidate gains an overall majority in the first round vote, the two candidates with the most votes will contest a second and decisive round on 7 May.

Second round opinion polls have consistenly given Mr Juppé a significant lead over Ms Le Pen.

Under the French election system, barring the unlikely possibility one candidate gains an overall majority in the first round vote, the two candidates with the most votes will contest a second and decisive round on 7 May.

Second round opinion polls have consistenly given Mr Juppé a significant lead over Ms Le Pen.

It came as leading French philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy warned people had lost interest in whether politicians tell the truth, in a development he said could set the Front National on course to occupy the Élysée Palace.

“If Trump is possible, then everything is possible. Nothing, from now on, is unimaginable,” Mr Lévy told The Telegraph.

“As for Le Pen it is unlikely that she wins but it is possible, and that is partly because the people have lost interest in policy, instead focusing on personality.

“The people listen less and less to policy and they even seem less concerned about whether the candidates are telling the truth or not.

“They are more interested in the performance, in the theatrical quality of what is said than whether it is true. And as we know, a fascist can put on a very successful performance.”

The latest polls emerged as French conservatives voted in primaries on Sunday to choose their presidential nominee to face Front National candidate Ms Le Pen.

Seven candidates are competing for their position in the primaries and a second vote will be held next week to decide between the two frontrunners.


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Marine Le Pen claims no difference between her policies and Ukip
Under the French election system, barring the unlikely possibility one candidate gains an overall majority in the first round vote, the two candidates with the most votes will contest a second and decisive round on 7 May.

Second round opinion polls have consistenly given Mr Juppé a significant lead over Ms Le Pen.

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It came as leading French philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy warned people had lost interest in whether politicians tell the truth, in a development he said could set the Front National on course to occupy the Élysée Palace.

“If Trump is possible, then everything is possible. Nothing, from now on, is unimaginable,” Mr Lévy told The Telegraph.

“As for Le Pen it is unlikely that she wins but it is possible, and that is partly because the people have lost interest in policy, instead focusing on personality.

“The people listen less and less to policy and they even seem less concerned about whether the candidates are telling the truth or not.

“They are more interested in the performance, in the theatrical quality of what is said than whether it is true. And as we know, a fascist can put on a very successful performance.”

The latest polls emerged as French conservatives voted in primaries on Sunday to choose their presidential nominee to face Front National candidate Ms Le Pen.

Seven candidates are competing for their position in the primaries and a second vote will be held next week to decide between the two frontrunners.

The three leading candidates are former president Mr Sarkozy and former prime ministers Francois Fillon and Alain Juppé - with many non-Republican voters hoping Mr Juppé wins as he has the best chance of beating Ms Le Pen.

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said a Le Pen win next year could be “possible” and has warned of the danger of electing a far-right president, with many expecting Ms Le Pen to face a candidate from the centre-right if she makes it to the second round, given the current unpopularity of the ruling Socialist party.

Ms Le Pen has led the far-right Front National since 2011, when she succeeded her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, the party’s founder.

Since taking over the party, Ms Le Pen has made efforts to distance herself from her father’s openly antisemitic views, who has been convicted repeatedly for hate speech and contesting crimes against humanity, including describing gas chambers used to kill Jews in the Holocaust as a “detail” of history.

However, critics have branded Ms Le Pen a “fascist” and accused her of exploiting growing anti-immigration sentiment.

The 48-year-old appeared on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show on Remembrance Sunday, causing a crowd of Unite Against Fascism protesters to gather outside the BBC building.

Jeremy Corbyn, who also appeared on the show, told Marr: “She uses this populism against minorities in order to get herself elected.

“The reality is she does not have an economic answer to the problems faced by the left behind communities in France any more than Ukip has an economic answer to the left behind communities in Britain.

“It’s only communities coming together with public investment that can deal with the fundamental economic injustices that are getting worse not better in Europe.”

In 2012, Ms Le Pen came third in the first round of the French presidential race with 17.9 per cent of the vote, behind Mr Sarkozy with 27.18 per cent and eventual winner Mr Hollande with 28.63 per cent.
 
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Nicolas Sarkozy

Sarkozy is part of history as he lost the Republican primary. Fillon is being given a greater lead in the coming election in different polls with 28 to 31% and Marine Le Pen with 23 to 25%. He would win by a large margin in the second one.
 
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I think it's too soon to say but lets wait and see. Keep in mind people said the same thing about Trump but we know how that ended up :lol:

France is not America, man! You need 50% + 1 to win
which Trump didn't get and Marine will not.
If she scored even 30% on the 2nd run, it would be a big surprise.

Good day to you, Tay.
 
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Like the Republicans,they will organize a primary (votes in January) to designate the socialist candidate for 2017. The list isn't complete and candidates need some signatures from councillors and citizens member of the socialist party in order to participate,which many couldn't have.

Among the competitors,Montebourg and Hamon,former ministers of Hollande. Now the question is will Macron,Valls or Hollande participate ? The last is going to announce soon if he re-runs or abandon,but I doubt about the last one.


I sure hope that someone other than Hollande runs for the Socialists.

I suspect the National Front to be some sort of conspiracy theory created in order to allow mainstream parties to always stay in power,lol.


Do they help them?

With our current electoral system,they have no chances to ever gain power. Let's even suppose she wins,by the general surprise,that would be useless if she doesn't have a majority in the parliament. Many people believe that once she won,it's over,she will make France great again tomorrow......but when your parliament is full of Republicans or socialists.... (who will never support you) and you barely have 10 maximum... @Louiq XIV @Taygibay @Kaptaan


Well, I was only commenting on her chances of winning the Presidency.

You do bring up a very good point about her power if she is elected. She won't have a majority there (or anything close it), unlike Trump. Though it will be interesting to see if the National Front can pick up some seats, however small their total might be.

full of Republicans


One thing I do thank Sarkozy for is changing the name of the party to The Republicans. It's much easier to remember than the Union for a Popular Movement (especially for us Americans).

BTW,the National Front is afraid that Fillon could steal many of their voters because of his various positions on different subjects (like immigration,identity,family,economy) who aren't that far from those of the NF,but the first one being more credible and more 'diplomatic' that the beloved Le Pen. They recognized that he was the most dangerous for them.


A fair point, and I agree with you in essence. However, his harder line on the welfare state, and lack of focus on the working class could hurt him a lot more than it has too. That's all I'm saying. I repeat: do not allow the far-right to take up the mantle of the working class.

USA ≠ France.
There are always two rounds and no way Marine will make 50% or more in the first one. People always go to vote en masse against her and the NF in the second round,no matter who the other candidate is. That's why they perform well in the 1st rounds,but fail always in the 2nd.
Our history is full of such exemples.


I agree that France is not the US. However, I'm simply saying that you shouldn't rule anything out. I agree with you that it's quite unlikely at this point that Le Pen has a realistic chance to win. But things can change quicker than you think. The unthinkable can happen, no matter how unlikely, if a perfect storm of events take place. Don't give her a chance.
 
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@Vergennes correct me if I'm wrong but isn't he also the most unpopular President in French history? Maybe that has to do with his decision not to run for reelection?
 
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You're spot on, Desert Fox, he had no choice really!

3% approval rating and he won't run? Qui l'eût cru?

8-) Tay.
 
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So with the Left in the garbage dump

It's not. There's Gérard Filoche left,candidate in the socialist primary.

Under his rule,being drunk would be mandatory. He'll have my vote. He is also leading in the polls.
The most powerful and influential lobbies in France (The drunkards of France + The united bistrots of France) already stated their support for him.

map.jpg
 
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