Indonesia currently has 16 Sus and 32+ F-16s and 16 T-50s that replaced the Hawks. Plans are still there for 10-11 Su-35s and 32 F-16Vs. That is 6 squadrons, 7 if you count the T-50s.
Now if 42 Rafales are indeed to be procured, that is 3 more squadrons, making the 11 squadron goal for the TNI-AU. So my question was where does that essentially leave the KFX?
With widely reported near default on the promised investments in the KFX program just a few month ago, and now this supposed shopping spree with the French, not to forget the defense minister not long ago wanting to buy all the Austrian Typhoons and plans for F-15EX as well, the only conclusion one can reach is that there is massive corruption within the military and politicians involved and this mishmash of a procurement policy does not say speak well for their air forces' professionalism either.
Plans to acquire Su-35s, Typhoons and F-16V has been formally scrapped... The plan now (up the 2040s and beyond) is to acquire :
~42 Rafales - Medium fighters to replace F-5 and for additional sqds
~36 F-15EXs - Heavy fighters to replace existing Su-27/30 sqds and cancelled Su-35 purchase
~50+ KFXs - Medium LO fighter, joint development, industrial cooperation, replacement for F-16 Sqds in the 2030s
~T-50s - Light fighter / LIFT to add existing T-50 sqds
So why not F-16Vs..? Considering we are already F-16 user...
Simple answer.. Geopolitics.. to be more specific.. CAATSA..
We originally wanted a mix of heavy, medium, and light (LIFT) fighters consisting of :
Heavy : existing Su-27/30s + new Su-35;
--> Su-35 (in the 30s and beyond)
Medium : existing F-16MLUs + new Vipers + KFX ;
--> Vipers + KFX (in the 30s and beyond)
Light : existing Hawks / T-50s + new T-50s;
--> T-50s (in the 30s and beyond)
The above mix is in accordance with our existing supporting infrastructures, personnel, industrial considerations and diversification policy..
We already put out RFIs for Su-35s and F-16Vs in anticipation of future purchases, but then CAATSA hits... we tried getting a waiver, but was denied and was pressured to drop the Su-35 purchase.. so we dropped the Su-35 and now we lack a heavy fighter.. the only other country producing heavy fighters is the US with F-15, so we have no choice now but to get the F15s..
Ok, so now our fighter mix should look like this then, :
Heavy : existing Su-27/30s + new
Su-35 F-15EX;
--> F-15EX (in the 30s and beyond)
Medium : existing F-16MLUs + new Vipers + KFX ;
--> Vipers + KFX (in the 30s and beyond)
Light : existing Hawks \ T-50s + new T-50s;
--> T-50s (in the 20s and beyond)
It actually looks better now isn't it..? Not exactly... Having a mixed fleet of F-15s, F-16s, and KFX is great for commonality, but leaves us totally dependent on the US and their whims.. and after experiencing the US embargo in the 90's - 00's which crippled our Air Force badly, we decided to diversify our fighter purchases and no longer rely solely on the US.. Since we can't drop the F-15 as we need the heavy fighter, that leaves the F-16s to be dropped..
Ok, so now our fighter mix should look like this then, :
Heavy : F-15EX (in the 30s and beyond)
Medium : KFX (in the 30s and beyond)
Light : T-50s (in the 20s and beyond)
It actually looks better now isn't it..? again.. not exactly... KFX is still a product in development, we can't be too sure of when it will be ready as delays in any fighter development is almost a certainty.. We also don't know yet the actual performance of KFX, will it be as good as designed..? as reliable..? So we need a mature, proven, non-US medium fighter in the meantime... Additionally KFX contains a lot of US tech and IP in it (LM is assisting in development), effectively giving the US any veto on its sales and usage.. so it's not good enough for our diversification policy.. however we will stick with KFX for its Technology and Industrial cooperation with South Korea.
And so comes the Rafale and Typhoon option.. After brief consideration Typhoon is almost immediately dropped, pacifist Germany and the UK is considered almost just as finicky as the US when it comes to arms embargo and arms exports limitations.. also the 4 country consortium of the Typhoon requires us to be in good terms with all of them all the time... Rafale then becomes the favorite contender as France is considered less restrictive in arms sales and their technology is relatively independent of the US.. and of course the Rafale itself is an extraordinary 4.5 gen fighter.. so a deal is made for the 42 Rafales.
Ok, so now our fighter mix would look like this then, :
Heavy : F-15EX (in the 30s and beyond)
Medium : Rafales (mid 20's) + KFX (in the 30s and beyond)
Light : T-50s (in the 30s and beyond)
The above now satisfies our requirement for a mix of heavy/med/light fighter, while maintaining source diversification, and also fulfilling our technological and industrial cooperation with Sokor... it's better than the planned original mix of Su-35, Viper + KFX, T-50... but it is also much more expensive now... but this is a plan that stretches' to the 40's and beyond so we can spread the cost for 20+ years... so is economically feasible too...
asia.nikkei.com
Just take in the formal announcements as reported in the media for now..
