Fourth Plutonium reactor under construction

[graphican]

Its not about being small or large.. have you ever wondered why Russia many times more weapons than US has? Reason is simple, the more insecure you feel, the more nukes you make to counter the threat. India has deployed several anti-missile systems to counter incoming threats (incoming missiles or aircrafts carrying them). If Pakistan fires 10 nuclear missiles at them, It is likely that 7 out of 10 would not reach their target because of successful interception by defense systems. That means our actual potential to harm is 30 when we have 100 nuclear weapons. If we want 100 nuclear weapons to fall at their target, we will need to produce several times more to make sure we do that.


Our more nukes are just to make sure we kill our enemy well when needed. But having more nuclear weapons is a threat in itself.. if Pakistan only had 10 nukes, India might had thought about attacking us but but if we have 200 of those.. India would think and think and think as it has done over the years and not do any act with would leave it dead as well.

 

[BelligerentPacifist]

... have you ever wondered why Russia many times more weapons than US has?
...

Public information suggests otherwise. Both countries hold or held more than 10000 bombs, with the US in the lead. Even the number of tests the US conducted is ~1.5 times that of the USSR (1100+ vs. 700+).

How is a fraction of something several times it?

 

[nirreich]

In the beginning I too was questioning the burgeoning plutonium program, but I think I understand the motives better now:

• Geopolitics. More lax alternatives to the NPT are being floated, and India might play the good boy and sign them, forcing Pakistan to do so too. Not signing the NPT+- might be becoming politically unfeasible for Pakistan. Pakistan needs a sufficient stockpile before going into such a treaty where producing further plutonium is not a choice. The last rush before the finish line. Most people think this is the major reason.
  
  
• Again geopolitics. The Bharato-US nuclear deal is believed to massively help Bhaarat, and not simply in its civilian program. They'd in future be able to make smaller and therefore more warheads from the same amount of their Pu. And more types of them. Pakistan appears to rush towards parity before they test once more and sign the treaties. That would be the sole window for a Pakistani test, and we don't want to miss the boat.
  
  However let us understand something. Such a plant is configured to produce either of two things, both necessary in a Pu bomb. So if with K-1 Pakistan was making 1 bomb per year (and that would mean running K-2 as well to provide the necessary Tritium), it would not jump to 4 with K-4 when it comes online in about twelve years from now, but 2 per year. Yes, that also means the estimates by Mr. Albright et al. might be over-estimating to twice Pakistan's real stockpile. And creating hysteria among allies, and pushing South-Asia into an arms race. What agenda is he working for?
  
  The all-encompassing Indo-US deal and the absence of a civ-only scaled-down version for Pakistan is also pushing it, I believe , to create related technologies right now before the chance is no more. What if the new reactors are not only for mil-use? What if one of them or an enrichment plant (we haven't made one yet, we only got a pilot one) is put under IAEA surveillance later? A large support infrastructure is needed in case someone agrees to build us a bigger power plant. Building that infrastructure would be impossible after the treaties, and we'd have to rely on imported fuel, coolant etc. Look how hard it is proving for India to obtain Uranium from Australia and Canada.
  
  
• Inadequacy in the the contingency of a war current today. There might be parity in the stockpile with India, but in the event of hostilities India can more than double its warhead-stockpile from its un-weaponized plutonium stock. This hints to doctrinal changes which demand their separate thread. Some hints: CSD and post-2008 scenario, ER bombs, counterforce attack under Bhaarat's countervalue threshold. This is the only disturbing part of the whole deal.

Thank you for your comprehensive reply.

I can see the logic of preparing to future fundamental changes in Pakistan's nuclear situation. for example, the plutonium programme could be used as an infrastructure for a nuclear deal with the US, similar to the one which was signed with India (although the current chances for this scenario are slim, at best). Another possibility is that Pakistan's top military brass (who decides on the nuclear policy) believe that Pakistan eventually will be forced to join the FMCT (the cut-off treaty), and must produce as much plutonium as possible as a top national security interest.

In my opinion there is not much probability for another NPT arrangement in light of the controversies within the CD in Geneva, and among the nuclear powers.

The real question is what is the exact scenario the Pakistani military command fears of, and making haste preparations to counter it. In my opinion, the answer is not a deterrence against India which already exist, judging on past events.

BTW, maybe a partial explanation for the development of a plutonium programme is the significant damage for the KRL complex in Kahuta in the earthquake of October 2005 which hit the Kashmir region. According to KRL's workers, one-third of the centrifuges were destroyed and the plant ceased its operation. AQ Khan, who was under house arrest since 2004, and his aides were ignored by Musharraf who could not find other scientists to reconstruct the enrichment halls in Kahuta.

 

[BelligerentPacifist]

Thank you for your comprehensive reply.

I can see the logic of preparing to future fundamental changes in Pakistan's nuclear situation. for example, the plutonium programme could be used as an infrastructure for a nuclear deal with the US, similar to the one which was signed with India (although the current chances for this scenario are slim, at best). Another possibility is that Pakistan's top military brass (who decides on the nuclear policy) believe that Pakistan eventually will be forced to join the FMCT (the cut-off treaty), and must produce as much plutonium as possible as a top national security interest.

In my opinion there is not much probability for another NPT arrangement in light of the controversies within the CD in Geneva, and among the nuclear powers.

Khushab can't be an alternative to Kahuta since Pu can't be used in reactors. They could possibly dedicate Kahuta to a future civilian energy program, however according to some reports the 30th May bomb design has a composite core so Uranium isn't becoming irrelevant.

I should stress it is only an Internet opinion that Pakistan is planning for a post-fissile material cutoff scenario. The real reasons we're obviously ignorant of.

BTW, maybe a partial explanation for the development of a plutonium programme is the significant damage for the KRL complex in Kahuta in the earthquake of October 2005 which hit the Kashmir region. According to KRL's workers, one-third of the centrifuges were destroyed and the plant ceased its operation. AQ Khan, who was under house arrest since 2004, and his aides were ignored by Musharraf who could not find other scientists to reconstruct the enrichment halls in Kahuta.

If salvaging the program is unfeasible then of course that could be a reason. But the Pu program is not a plan B that began after 2005. It is the older one of the two. In fact some go so far as to say that Kahuta served as the diversion while the Pu program and other technologies were maturing.

It could also be the result of the 1998 test data. The first tests have been claimed by non-subcontinental analysts to only be partial successes (fizzles, if we forgo political correctness!), necessitating the second trajectory.

The real question is what is the exact scenario the Pakistani military command fears of, and making haste preparations to counter it. In my opinion, the answer is not a deterrence against India which already exist, judging on past events.

The million dollar question.

Deterrence in the I-P scenario has shown to only work against a full-fledged war, and under the evolving scenario from the Bharatia side might be reduced to work against nuclear war. And then too there are voices from inside Bharat for them to renege on their no-first-use. The definition of deterrence is evolving, it probably isn't enough to have one bomb or ten against an adversary which can absorb thirty. Maybe these weapons are not being built for deterrence...

 

[nirreich]

Just a thought: maybe the expansion of the plutonium programme is for export. The motivation is to market nuclear materials and technologies to foreign countries in order to ease Pakistan's dire economic situation. These technologies and materials could be use both for a nuclear energy programme (to produce electricity), and for a nuclear weapons programme. No doubt that a plutonium programme gives Pakistan a better marketing position: advanced technologies and knowledge could be more expensive and bring bigger profits.

Pakistan is not a member in NPT and NSG, and did bot commit itself to any international obligation to avoid unrestricted nuclear export (like China, India, Russia and western countries which supply nuclear reactors and other facilities).

A well planned nuclear export project was already taking place between the end of the 1980's and 2003. It could happen again in light of the militarised control mechanism on Pakistan's strategic programmes. It was the same defence establishment which initiated the AQ Khan nuclear proliferation network.

 

[BelligerentPacifist]

You've got to be extremely naïve or stupid to think that.

 

[nirreich]

I see I've touched a sensitive point... Anyway, the expansion of Pakistan's nuclear programmes increase the risk of another proliferation episode.

Nuclear Proliferation? From Pakistan? What a stupid suggestion...

 

[Silk]

I see I've touched a sensitive point... Anyway, the expansion of Pakistan's nuclear programmes increase the risk of another proliferation episode.

I see less chance for Pakistan to use nuclear/chemical weapons then Israel. That nation uses something more then 50 years ago to act brutal against the Palestinians or islamic world. I think you should first look the danger of zionism and then start teaching others a lesson is sensitive matters.

 

[nirreich]

I see less chance for Pakistan to use nuclear/chemical weapons then Israel. That nation uses something more then 50 years ago to act brutal against the Palestinians or islamic world. I think you should first look the danger of zionism and then start teaching others a lesson is sensitive matters.

Like it or not, Pakistan currently posses a threat to international stability as a source of terrorism and nuclear proliferation. Pakistan's army (and not any "private" scientists, as argued by the goverment) helped three dangerous regimes (Iran, North Korea, and Libya) to develop nuclear weapons programme; several retired nuclear scietists met with Bin Laden few weeks before 9/11 attacks and offered him their expertise in WMD with the full knowledge of ISI and retired general, Aslam Beg. Pakistan is littered with dozens of terror organisations which murder civilians and soldiers in Afghanistan and India under the protection of ISI. Other terror organisations murder hundreds of Pakistani civilians each year. There is even unconfirmed information that the ISI know were Bin Laden hide and protects him.

Now, Pakistan is expanding its nuclear weapons programmes and increasing the potential risk of proliferation/smuggling to terror organisations/nuclear conflict with India.

And you want to talk about the danger from Israel???

Israel never used any WMD against anyone, while some of its Arab neighbours, Iran, and terror organisations threaten openly to annihilate it at the first opportunity. As we can see from the current crisis in the Middle East, Israel is the only stable country in this chaotic region, and it is totally ridiculous to speak about the "danger of Zionism". I bet you do not even know what Zionism truly mean.

 

[T-Rex]

Like it or not, Pakistan currently posses a threat to international stability as a source of terrorism and nuclear proliferation. Pakistan's army (and not any "private" scientists, as argued by the goverment) helped three dangerous regimes (Iran, North Korea, and Libya) to develop nuclear weapons programme; several retired nuclear scietists met with Bin Laden few weeks before 9/11 attacks and offered him their expertise in WMD with the full knowledge of ISI and retired general, Aslam Beg. Pakistan is littered with dozens of terror organisations which murder civilians and soldiers in Afghanistan and India under the protection of ISI. Other terror organisations murder hundreds of Pakistani civilians each year. There is even unconfirmed information that the ISI know were Bin Laden hide and protects him.

Now, Pakistan is expanding its nuclear weapons programmes and increasing the potential risk of proliferation/smuggling to terror organisations/nuclear conflict with India.

And you want to talk about the danger from Israel???

Israel never used any WMD against anyone, while some of its Arab neighbours, Iran, and terror organisations threaten openly to annihilate it at the first opportunity. As we can see from the current crisis in the Middle East, Israel is the only stable country in this chaotic region, and it is totally ridiculous to speak about the "danger of Zionism". I bet you do not even know what Zionism truly mean.

Like it or not the biggest threat to international stability is israel's illegal occupation of Palestine, it's support for despots like Mubarak, it's possession of WMD, its brigade of international assassins known as mossad. Middle East is the heart of international instability and israel with its zionist plans is at the root of all that. Even the only ally of israel was compelled to admit publicly that israel's settlement expansion was wrong and unethical while defending israel from the wrath of the entire world. Of course to the zionists like you these are not facts, "Pakistan poses a threat to international stability" is the divine fact to you. Live with your twisted views of the world, we don't give a damn about it but the day is coming when you'll reap the fruit of it.

 

[nirreich]

In your twisted views of the world the fundamental legitimacy of existence of Israel is "illegal occupation of Palestine", and acting from self defence against cold blood murderers is a brigade of international assassinations. And of course, Zionism is to blame for everything - for the instability in the Middle East, for the fact that the Arab world is at the bottom of human development (according to its own experts!), and for the killing of tens of thousand of Muslim civilians by their own countrymen (in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.).

So, let me apology on behalf of my country for its existence and for defending its people...

Personally, I believe that Israel should evacuate most of the settlements and support the establishment of a Palestinian state (which Israel already accepted and already evacuated its citizens from Gaza). However, how can you compare between the daily atrocities in Pakistan and in Arab countries to the settlement problem?! Only yesterday the only non-Muslim minister in Pakistan's government was assassinated for speaking his mind, probably by the same groups that are protected by the ISI, no one truly investigated the murder of Benazir Bhutto (or of Zia ul-Haq in 1988, for that matter) in fear of the conclusions, its military acting irresponsible and harm mostly the Pakistani people (that do not have basic services such as comprehensive education and health systems) - and I could continue all day.

Comparing to what is going in Pakistan, Israel's problems and actions are trivial (even Pakistan supported Mubbarak...). I strongly advise you to open your mind and eyes, get reed of all this Zionist conspiracy nonsense, and focus on the ways to improve the dire situation in Pakistan and in the Arab world.

 

[T-Rex]

In your twisted views of the world the fundamental legitimacy of existence of Israel is "illegal occupation of Palestine", and acting from self defence against cold blood murderers is a brigade of international assassinations. And of course, Zionism is to blame for everything - for the instability in the Middle East, for the fact that the Arab world is at the bottom of human development (according to its own experts!), and for the killing of tens of thousand of Muslim civilians by their own countrymen (in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.).

So, let me apology on behalf of my country for its existence and for defending its people...

Personally, I believe that Israel should evacuate most of the settlements and support the establishment of a Palestinian state (which Israel already accepted and already evacuated its citizens from Gaza). However, how can you compare between the daily atrocities in Pakistan and in Arab countries to the settlement problem?! Only yesterday the only non-Muslim minister in Pakistan's government was assassinated for speaking his mind, probably by the same groups that are protected by the ISI, no one truly investigated the murder of Benazir Bhutto (or of Zia ul-Haq in 1988, for that matter) in fear of the conclusions, its military acting irresponsible and harm mostly the Pakistani people (that do not have basic services such as comprehensive education and health systems) - and I could continue all day.

Comparing to what is going in Pakistan, Israel's problems and actions are trivial (even Pakistan supported Mubbarak...). I strongly advise you to open your mind and eyes, get read of all this Zionist conspiracy nonsense, and focus on the ways to improve the dire situation in Pakistan and in the Arab world.

Your views do not somehow enjoy the support of the other countries and it is clear from the last showdown in the security council. The undemocratic power of one permanent member saved your a** last time. Why is it that out of 188 countries only the US supports your position if it is so logical? Do you want to tell me that all those countries are "anti-semetic"? Open your eyes to the injustice inflicted by israel upon the Palestinians, be a human being instead of a zionist.

 

[nirreich]

To be a Zionist is to be a human being! Israel has the right to exist, no less than Bangladesh or Pakistan! A Palestinian state could be established tomorrow if not for the Palestinian constant refusal to live peacefully side by side with a Jewish state.

You really want me to take the UN Seriously? Unfortunately this is the official body for international hatred. This is the same organisation that a vast majority of its members gave the lunatic from Libya, Qaddafi, to sit as the chairman of the human rights council. If it was not in reality we could all enjoy the joke. The UN members ignored systematically the despotic regimes in the international community, while trying to appease several of them (like Iran and North Korea).

I do not see you judge so severely your brothers in Islamic countries for being a collateral failure, you do not even try to argue for Pakistan. all you can think of is to attack Israel as the best line of defence. You know that you could only dream that Islamic countries would achieve half of the success of Israel.

I strongly recommend you to concentrate on the ways to improve the desperate situation in the Arab world and in Pakistan. There is a lot of work to be done. Even if Israel disappear, the Middle East would still suffer from poverty, tyranny, and atrocities - all in the name of Islam.

 

[sanasahil]

India must be crying over this, does anyone know why indian missiles always act "phusss" , i have heard that it might be their trick the let pakistan take india easy and they will show what they have when it will be needed.

 

[Secret Service]

India must be crying over this, does anyone know why indian missiles always act "phusss" , i have heard that it might be their trick the let pakistan take india easy and they will show what they have when it will be needed.

yes..they have everything in their box..just to assure the world that we are just strengthening our defense from terrorist threat or may be china.
i believe army and ISI knows this.