Forex reserves slip below $40b for first time in two years

[UKBengali]

I am just worried if the oil and gas crisis because of the Ukraine war lingers whether we will go down the path of Sri Lanka, Allah forbid.

We won’t as BD imports little oil due to low private motor vehicle usage.

Gas is a problem as a lot of power plants are gas fired and so load shedding for public is back again.

It is only 1.5GW energy shortfall and so not a hugely massive problem.

 

[Bengal71]

We won’t as BD imports little oil due to low private motor vehicle usage.

Gas is a problem as a lot of power plants are gas fired and so load shedding for public is back again.

It is only 1.5GW energy shortfall and so not a hugely massive problem.

1.5GW is the shortfall between production capacity and the need. But the shortfall will increase if gas price doesn't go down.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

The CAD and reserves positions of all EMs (barring oil exporters) is under pressure given energy and commodity prices boom, dont know what this Hai Tauba is all about. These prices are gently trending down and things will be fine for everyone incl BD.

Regards

 

[UKBengali]

1.5GW is the shortfall between production capacity and the need. But the shortfall will increase if gas price doesn't go down.

Yes it will go up every year but the extra generation from nuclear and imports from hydroelectricity will be able to keep up - the percentage shortfall will decrease.

 

[Realtalk108]

Am I wrong if I say B D is unable to produce any mechanical goods and so it imports them. Money flows away that way and it has little money left to buy fuels and other necessities.

You are not wrong.

But BD is following export oriented growth model which has a proven better track record than import substitution. India did import substitution in the early decades after independence, but the results were subpar.

Granted back in 1950 India didn't really have much of a choice. Globalized economy was shattered and we had barely anything to export to begin with. Jute, Tea and some minerals, that's it.

Export oriented growth isn't risk free. Sometimes things do go wrong like Thailand in 1997. But BD looks ok.

At that time, countries that rely on agriculture will usher in devastating disasters.

Why? Such a scenario will massively expand food production. Food will become cheaper and after a while economies will readjust.

It's like the Indian commies' take in the 1980s against computerization. Oh nose! The computer will make the lowly office clerk jobless! 40 years later IT is one of the few things that's keeping Indian economy alive.

 

[Bengal71]

Yes it will go up every year but the extra generation from nuclear and imports from hydroelectricity will be able to keep up - the percentage shortfall will decrease.

I am talking about the immediate short term. The country (and all countries of the world) is suffering because of the oil and gas prices caused by the Ukraine war. We need to ride out this period unscathed but God knows how long this period will last. If it continues for long, say a few years then we are going to be in big trouble.

 

[UKBengali]

I am talking about the immediate short term. The country (and all countries of the world) is suffering because of the oil and gas prices caused by the Ukraine war. We need to ride out this period unscathed but God knows how long this period will last. If it continues for long, say a few years then we are going to be in big trouble.

Like I say from 2023 onwards the relief from Roopur and hydroelectric will be here.

Nothing can be done in next 12 months apart from rationing.

BD will be just fine and so nothing productive will come from thinking too negatively as it is one of the best placed developing countries to ride this out.

 

[Bengal71]

Like I say from 2023 onwards the relief from Roopur and hydroelectric will be here.

Nothing can be done in next 12 months apart from rationing.

BD will be just fine and so nothing productive will come from thinking too negatively as it is one of the best placed developing countries to ride this out.

I hope this is true for our own sake.

 

[UKBengali]

I hope this is true for our own sake.

What a stroke of luck that Roopur is being built as otherwise BD would be in even deeper trouble.
Get the contract for that 2nd plant signed asap.

 

[Bengal71]

What a stroke of luck that Roopur is being built as otherwise BD would be in even deeper trouble.
Get the contract for that 2nd plant signed asap.

How much shortfall in gas powered electricity can Rooppur cover?

 

[UKBengali]

How much shortfall in gas powered electricity can Rooppur cover?

0.3 trillion cubic feet per year from the 2 reactors each year.

 

[Bengal71]

0.3 trillion cubic feet per year from the 2 reactors each year.

The second one that is being planned, what's it's generation capacity?

 

[UKBengali]

The second one that is being planned, what's it's generation capacity?

Think similar from the comments Hasina has made but now BD could go for much larger capacity like 4 * 1.2GW = 4.8 GW.

Nuclear and hydroelectricity(Nepal/Bhutan) will be the power generation of choice for BD in the future.

 

[Bengal71]

Think similar from the comments Hasina has made but now BD could go for much larger capacity like 4 * 1.2GW = 4.8 GW.

Nuclear and hydroelectricity(Nepal/Bhutan) will be the power generation of choice for BD in the future.

If we are going for Nuke plants I think it's better to go big, should be cheaper to build I guess.

 

[UKBengali]

If we are going for Nuke plants I think it's better to go big, should be cheaper to build I guess.

I would be very surprised if the next nuclear plant does not have much larger capacity like the example I gave - BD power demand by then would be like twice what it is now.

Any country that relies on volatile/unreliable and potentially expensive fossil fuelled power plants is going to ruin itself.

This will also accelerate BD investments in hydroelectric power plants in Nepal/Bhutan. 500MW will come in 2026 from a joint venture between Nepal/BD and Bhutan and more will follow soon after I am sure.

This year and part of 2023 will be tough for sure but things will slowly get better from 2nd half of next year for BD.