For Pakistan: Disaster looms amid Drop in Rupee, Foreign Reserves, Remittances & High Inflation

[Paji]

The free fall of Pak rupee is not due to the imbalance in exports and imports. It's because of mafias. I was in Lahore during this summer. One day I withdrew a few thousand dollars from my roshan digital account. The bank manager asked me if I would like to exchange these dollars with Pak rupees. I said yes and that's why I was going to Western Union. He said call me from there and whatever rate you get from there I'll get you a better rate. So I called him and told him that Western Union offered me an exchange rate of Rs. 288.70 per US dollar. After five to ten minutes he called me back and offered me Rs. 296 per dollar. I am sure that he got that offer actually from some mafia person and of course he would get his commission too. It's not difficult for agencies to trace these black sheep out and prosecute them. But I don't understand why there is no crack down on these mafias.

Seriously, who uses Western Union these days, when alternatives like Wise are available ? Any bank will generally offer better rates. I thought only those sending small amounts to their families through informal channels used Western Union.

 

[Paji]

CPEC is not the issue, the political instability owing to a fascist crackdown by the Army Junta remains a major factor.

In my opinion, neither CPEC nor the crackdown are the issues. Pakistan has been is similar economic doldrums when Imran Khan Niazi was in power and several earlier occasions. This is not the first time Pakistan is going to the imf for a bailout.

There are long-standing institutional problems with the Pakistani economy that have never been addressed. There have been some false mirages during the Ayub Khan, Zia and Musharraf regimes where a facade of economic growth had been created , funded by American blood money received in return for surrendering Pakistani national sovereignity but otherwise Pakistan has been in secular economic decline since it was created and especially after it lost East Pakistan.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

nobody can and that is the point. Full terms of the CPEC programs have not been disclosed. You tell me why

That doesn’t automatically mean that COEC is the cause of Pakistan’s ills. As I pointed out in a previous post, even if we assume that CPEC terms and conditions are ‘fair’, the structural and political issues Pakistan has (such as the Army Junta control over the country and Fauji support for mafias, extremists and corrupt political, land owning and business elite) will continue to plague Pakistan.

Genuine change and reform cannot even begin to occur in Pakistan until a mass uprising against the Fauj uproots their hegemony and brings about genuine free and fair elections

Pakistan has been is similar economic doldrums when Imran Khan Niazi was in power and several earlier occasions.

IK was not allowed to complete his term nor freely allowed to implement the policies he wanted, and this has been true of every ‘civilian government’ going back to Ayub Khan.

The common denominator here is the fascist Fauj that has destroyed democracy, civilian institutions and protected and promoted a venal and corrupt political, business and land owning elite to protect their hegemony.

 

[FuturePAF]

Failure to have any real and significant domestic industrialization increases inflation.

Inflation is taxation without legislation as Milt Friedman use to say.

 

[epebble]

After five to ten minutes he called me back and offered me Rs. 296 per dollar. I am sure that he got that offer actually from some mafia person and of course he would get his commission too.

Why do you consider price negotiation as 'mafia'? It is free market. That is how it works whether you want to buy a rug in Pakistan or Pakistan wants to buy a million gallons of petroleum from Saudi Arabia. I can negotiate the price of my internet plan or cell phone plan with my providers. Why are you so shocked by price match offer? Lots of businesses do that.

 

[ProudThamizhan]

That doesn’t automatically mean that COEC is the cause of Pakistan’s ills. As I pointed out in a previous post, even if we assume that CPEC terms and conditions are ‘fair’, the structural and political issues Pakistan has (such as the Army Junta control over the country and Fauji support for mafias, extremists and corrupt political, land owning and business elite) will continue to plague Pakistan.

yes it doesn't automatically mean that. But when terms have been kept secret for so long and selectively released, and that too for civilian infra projects (not sensitive or security related) and for 10+ years, what would your reasonable conclusion be?

second. are these being audited at all annually? have any of you seen these audit reports? do you know when which project is supposed, by plan, to produce how many megawatts versus what the actual performance is? Aren't these junior college accounting and audit requirements?

 

[Paji]

The common denominator here is the fascist Fauj that has destroyed democracy, civilian institutions and protected and promoted a venal and corrupt political, business and land owning elite to protect their hegemony.

Economic growth in Pakistan was better under the Fauji regimes of Ayub, Zia and Musharraf than under civilian rule. IKN had one of the worst records. Of course, the better performance during direct fauji rule was not due to endogenous factors but due to $$$ inflow from Uncle Sam in return for doing America's dirty job.

 

[SaadH]

There's no crises or disaster looming, sepoys' amreeki mai baaps will order IMF and arabs to throw a few bones sepoys' way to keep them on the ventilator. This is how the region and its people have operated since the Sikha shahi.

 

[Mirzali Khan]

There's no crises or disaster looming, sepoys' amreeki mai baaps will order IMF and arabs to throw a few bones sepoys' way to keep them on the ventilator. This is how the region and its people have operated since the Sikha shahi.

Would you agree that the fact people are deleting themselves over electricity bills is an ominous sign?

 

[SaadH]

Would you agree that the fact people are deleting themselves over electricity bills is an ominous sign?

No, this is business as usual in these parts. Ominous sign would have been electricity bill affectee taking out a general and/or their PDM minions on his way out.

 

[karmaa]

CPEC as a project was good, but the execution and the terms of the contract is what the problem is.

You know even if you give best thing in wrong place and wrong environment it will fail . Chinese are running things in best manners because of the control , system and discipline they have in china .In case of pakistan or India , there is lack of discipline and lack of system .

 

[epebble]

Would you agree that the fact people are deleting themselves over electricity bills is an ominous sign?

Yes, it is a sign that something is very wrong, at least in some part of society. But it may not be directly because of electric bill. It is somewhat analogous to the fentanyl problem in U.S. Some people may say it is due to inflation or unemployment or whatever. But the root cause may be something else entirely.

 

[karmaa]

What I ment was , let me make it simple for understanding.

Let's say my neighbour's need a path through my land (China wanted an alternate path) ,the neighbour comes to me and says I want a path through your land.if he tell me that he will spend the money needed and I have to pay later,I would tell him to go F**k himself. But that was not what happened in cpec case. Chinese were given guarantees on assured returns(Pakistan could have negotiated cost sharing).

After the project started , china awarded the contracts to Chinese companies , material needed purchased from chinese companies ,Chinese labour worked on it mostly on important roles.what ever the billions of dollars paksitan talks about did not really enter pakistan economy(otherwise Pakistan would not be struggling for dollars every year, Chinese paid in their local currency and Pakistan has to pay back in dollars).

China is another East India company .

 

[Kaniska]

When a lender forces upon a borrower a condition that the terms of a loan shall not ever be published, there are only two alternate possibilities:

1. The terms are so good that if exposed all other ‘customers’ will clamour for it. In case if banks and commercial lenders this would be a problem but in case of China, being a sovereign under a single party single tyrant system , not an issue . They can simply say no without consequences ; so then the only alternative reason is

2. The terms are so terrible that CCP does not want its usury exposed . Pakistan unfortunately had and has no choice and so accepts the terms .

This is what has happened. That is why the longer Pakistan suffers the CPEC yoke, the poorer it becomes

It is unfair to blame a project as a factor for the economic misery of Pakistan.
The current state of Pakistan reflects the mindset and the thought process of majority of people who are living in their country. Whatever we see in PDF are supposed to be the most elite or educated segment of Pakistan society who may have good intent but they are mostly NRP.

 

[karmaa]

It is unfair to blame a project as a factor for the economic misery of Pakistan.
The current state of Pakistan reflects the mindset and the thought process of majority of people who are living in their country. Whatever we see in PDF are supposed to be the most elite or educated segment of Pakistan society who may have good intent but they are mostly NRP.

Very true , Afghanistan also comes from same group .