Pakistan flood-hit economy may see 0 to 2 % growth
* GDP growth could be as low as zero percent
* Cotton crop loss about 25 percent
* Inflation could reach 25 percent
By Sahar Ahmed
KARACHI, Aug 23 (Reuters) - The worst floods in decades could knock down Pakistan's economic growth for fiscal 2010/11 to between zero and two percent, Pakistani officials said on Monday, fuelling concern about the country's stability.
The Asian Development Bank, assessing flood damage and Pakistan's needs along with the World Bank, said last week economic growth could be three percent [nSGE67J028]. The finance ministry said the country would miss this year's 4.5 gross domestic product growth target, but did not give another figure.
Sakib Sherani, a senior adviser to the finance ministry, said there was a whole range of growth estimates which would be revised once the actual impact of the floods became clear.
"We think zero percent is the lower bound of these estimates," Sherani told Reuters, adding that this was his own estimate, and not an official figure from the finance ministry.
He said the zero growth estimate was based on the economic impact of the damage caused to key crops and livestock, adding an estimated 25 percent of the cotton crop has been affected.
The textile industry, which accounts for more than 50 percent of total exports, depends on the cotton crop.
Drastically lower economic growth would be a major cause of concern for the Pakistani government and the United States, which wants its ally as stable as possible because it is a frontline state in Washington's war against militancy.
Pakistan's president and foreign minister have expressed concern that Islamic militant groups would exploit the widespread suffering to gain recruits.
Islamist charities, some with suspected links to militant groups, have been more effective than the government in providing relief to floods victims.
INFLATION COULD SOAR
The International Monetary Fund will review Pakistan's budget and macroeconomic prospects following catastrophic flooding during talks with senior Pakistani officials in Washington starting on Monday.
The meetings are set to focus on the future of Pakistan's $10.66 billion IMF programme agreed upon in 2008. If the IMF agrees to ease the programme's targets, or extends the repayment period that would ease the government's financial burdens.
Reconstruction is likely to cost billions of dollars, burdening an economy that was already fragile before the waters raged from the northwest to the south, destroying villages and key infrastructure and making more than 4 million homeless.
Sherani said inflation could reach as high as 25 percent, compared with the 2010/11 target of 9.5 percent.
Higher costs and food shortages could enrage people who had lost everything in the floods and who are already angry at their government for its slow response to the disaster.
The U.N. said the floods have left millions of people hungry, raising the prospect of popular unrest unless immediate and reconstruction aid reach the victims swiftly.
Sherani said lower commodity prices could prevent prices from spiking up. "We will have to import essential items and if international commodity prices go down, then inflation at 25 percent will be less probable," he said.
The Pakistan Planning Commission's forecast was not as grim. "I agree the growth will come down but at the same time, the zero percent is cruel, it will be one to two percent," said Nadeem ul Haque, deputy chairman of the commission, which formulates and monitors implementation of development projects.
"There will be a negative impact but when reconstruction starts in November or December and people go back to their lands and restart farming, there will be a positive impact." (Additional reporting by Kamran Haider in Islamabad; editing by Miral Fahmy) (For more Reuters coverage of Afghanistan and Pakistan, see: here)
Pakistan flood-hit economy may see 0 to 2 pct growth | Reuters