Look at our potential forces that can challenge IAF...namely PAF and PLAF. Now all the contenders in MRCA are state of art planes and considered best in one aspect or another... As far as PLAF goes apart from Mig-35 they cannot lay their hands on anything else....As of now nothing has been heard even about that...Now lets see what all can PAF opt for...
- Saab Gripen(Sweden) - Possible sale to Pakistan
- Eurofighter Typhoon - Too Costly for Pakistan
- Dassault Rafale(France) - Possible Sale to Pakistan
- Mikoyan MiG-35(Russia) - Great relations with them and more than enough projects to keep them interested
- F-16IN and F/A-18IN(America) - Relations improving and more than enough projects to keep them interested. Apart from few F16 nothing has been offered to PAF so far...
Good analysis! The only point where I would add some things are the fighters that PAF could lay their hands on. The older Gripen was offered to PAF earlier from Saab, but in that time the Swedish gov. rejected the sale. Gripen NG would not make much sense for PAF, because they already have the JF 17 and can get the J10B, which could end up even better and cheaper than the Gripen. Similar design and most likely similar payload, but more thrust, maybe even TVC. The only advantages the NG has are weapons and techs, but PAF can possibly upgrade them with western parts, just like they try with JF 17. That all will rule out the NG for sure.
EF new is obviously too costly, but they could get some used T1 like Romania now has on offer, the question is, does PAF want a fighter that is only usefull for air superiority in small numbers and without AESA radar and slightly highter costs than those J10Bs?
Imo the biggest chance of foreign fighters for PAF would be Rafale, or F18SH, besides the J11 of course. PAF needs a twin engine fighter to counter MKI and MMRCAs in the long term and if they can get the money, these will be the best choices.
No matter how we improve the relation to the US, they will put their interests first and they need Pakistan in war on terror and so far they will keep selling them arms of course and F18SH is at the moment the only possible choice.
And when it comes to France, it is obvious that if we don't buy Rafale, they will offer them to PAF sooner or later and PAF officials was even in France regarding Rafale.
Rafale for PAF would be very dangerous for India, because it offers not only excellent air defense capabilities to counter IAF fighters, but also strong strike capabilities. In Kargil IAF was able to detect PAF fighters way before they could enter our airspace, now with AWACS, upgraded F16s and B52s, their offensive capabilities improved, but with an twin engine Rafale, they would be a serious opponent for us, even if we can maintain the numerical superiority.
One more reason not only to buy the Rafale, but to get the French closer to us and limit the access on western techs to Pakistan. I wished we had offered them to team up on Rafale F4 like UAE does now, because the Rafale could have been perfect to start a partnership between both nations and also Dassault and HAL. The LCA could gain so much by their help (AESA radar, IRST, A2G weapons like AASM, Scalp, or to make it carrier capable). But the longer we wait the less will be left, with Brazil, UAE and Kuwait close to buy the Rafale now.