Hi Con,
I agree with most of what you wrote. Technology is indeed a great equalizer and bigger will always not be better, but one thing cannot be taken away from these larger dragons. They are big, they are very powerful, they can carry a larger payload, a bigger radar and a very very intimidating physical factor.
After all is said and done, things change immediately when the threat level is enhanced. On a one on one, a smaller plane fires a bvr at a larger plane from 50 miles away, there is enough time for that plane to avoid the oncoming threat and take evasive actions. Also, the kill ratio is low from the maximum firing distances. The problem for the bigger plane will occur when it is facing multiple threats from different sources at the same time,a smaller fighter plane with a very low rcs slips through the quadrant to make its mark.
The reason that most of the gulf war pilots didnot know when they died was their obsolete radars. Three to seven miles detection radius against an oncoming phoenix missile travelling at 3000 mph----there is no reaction time here. 1001---By the time the threat sound comes on and registers on the pilots brain to do something, he had already died from the missile strike.