First eliminations in MMRCA expected this month

[Farahvar]

100 Rafale and 40 Gripens to preempt any same to pakistan....
Later we can buy more Rafale's

 

[karan.1970]

^dont agree with the above assessment - my red hat tells me the finalists are going to be Boeing, LM and Russia. no chance for the europeans.

I agree on the other 2 but I dont think F 16 will go to the next level. I think GoI will keep Rafale in the running though but only as a gesture. No hope for it to make it to the final cut.. F 18 seems to be the deal. Deal signatures in Nov when Obama comes visiting..

 

[sancho]

Lets see whose crystal ball prediction comes true

Gripen, Mig35 , F18, go thru . My assessment

Take another look into it please !

I highly doubt that 2 fighters (Gripen NG and Mig 35) with no export customers yet (not even the developing countries buying it!), both only available as prototypes and development is going on, which means real operational costs, capabilities and delays are not predictable at the moment! This is contrary to the point of shrinking squad numbers of IAF, because you they would counter the delays of LCA, with the risks of delays in Gripen NG / Mig 35 development.
That one of them could enter the final stage is more likely, but no chance for both and by the fact that the Mig clearly offers more disadvantages than advantages, I highly doubt it will be shortlisted.

I still bet on Rafale, Gripen NG and F18SH, the others have too many downsides to make them useful for IAF.

^dont agree with the above assessment - my red hat tells me the finalists are going to be Boeing, LM and Russia. no chance for the europeans.

Mh, why should India want the fighters with the lowest RCS, the latest BVR missiles, the only fighters that offers SC capabilities and the advantage of using weapons from different origins and even the integration of Indian weapons, not to mention that they have the offers with highst ToT, JV, or even partnerships, without EUM, or other restrictions.

Yeah, the Europeans really have no chance at all. (no offense!)

 

[chachachoudhary]

F/A-18, RAFALE and Gripen are expected to make it..

Very true. Eggzactly mai feeeelins.....................

Rafale 120

Gripen 60

F/A-18 20 + 40

ps: If GOI chooses F-16, i am going to enrol myself to a naxalite gang.

Where is dantewada?

 

[Join]

Very true. Eggzactly mai feeeelins.....................

Rafale 120

Gripen 60

F/A-18 20 + 40

ps: If GOI chooses F-16, i am going to enrol myself to a naxalite gang.

Where is dantewada?

That side

 

[karan.1970]

Very true. Eggzactly mai feeeelins.....................

Rafale 120

Gripen 60

F/A-18 20 + 40

ps: If GOI chooses F-16, i am going to enrol myself to a naxalite gang.

Where is dantewada?

If that happens, come along to Delhi and we will travel togather to Dantewada.. My driver hails from that area and he should be able to provide us with directions..

 

[merajahmed]

Very true. Eggzactly mai feeeelins.....................

Rafale 120

Gripen 60

F/A-18 20 + 40

ps: If GOI chooses F-16, i am going to enrol myself to a naxalite gang.

Where is dantewada?

uuuuuummmmmmmmm Dentewada ????????? actually I m from Assam so I don't know about this place.

But how about this

EF or Rafale - 126
+
F/18 sh - 74
= 200 mmrca

I hope LCA Mark II will be somewhat similar to Gripen

 

[chachachoudhary]

uuuuuummmmmmmmm Dentewada ????????? actually I m from Assam so I don't know about this place.

But how about this

EF or Rafale - 126
+
F/18 sh - 74
= 200 mmrca

Gripen---cheapest----more numbers---full tech transfer---possible AESA tech joint venture.

 

[merajahmed]

Gripen---cheapest----more numbers---full tech transfer---possible AESA tech joint venture.

But chacha we can develop aesa with Israel also.........

 

[Dash]

Here is what I think........

Reports state that this deal for 126 fighters will cost $10 billion, but there exist huge price variances between the offered fighters of varying capability. And this figure is a lifecycle cost – not an acquisition cost — so it is not clear if the number of fighters is fixed or whether the budget figure is. Half the fighters would not qualify even before going in to trials depending on the answer.

This is always about 126 Fighters and even more, $10 billion is not the life cycle cost for sure. the contract itself is about numbers so money doesnt matter here.

The Indian Ministry of Defense has drafted the tender so broadly that most fighters would qualify.

I always wanted to know why did we allow F-16 and Mig 35 in competion when we know that they are not in the race. F-16 is something doesnt fit the criteria being a single engine and Mig-35 cant not delivered by 2015 and will have serious issues with timeline. The author actually points this out. It looks like we are out to please countries than please tax payers money. They shouldnt have been in this competion at all.

One competitor told 8ak that the competition could cost each bidder an average of $180 million given costs such as each bomb drop in live weapons’ trials could cost up to US$1 million. In addition, most companies would have spent many hundreds of millions more to adapt their offering for the competition, for example developing the AESA radars

The intial RFP and the trial was no cost and no comittment so bidders know it. We never guaranteed them that we will buyt these crafts from them. Its the same with all countries.

So even if the IAF did not want a particular aircraft, if all the tick boxes were checked, no company can be eliminated at this stage even if they have no chance of eventually winning.

That was only technical evaluation!! It doesnt mean that we will not have a price negotiation round and if some fail then we will surely kick them out. Only the first round os over.

However, the lure of U.S. backing India for a UN Security Council seat is quite lucrative and in a July 2010 report by senior Pentagon official Michele Flournoy made it clear that the U.S. is putting a lot of strategic value on the fighter aircraft deal and has made it clear that they would like to see a U.S. choice.

We cant buy US to give us a UN seat by giving them money for 126 fighters. This is like saying Russia will stop supporting us for a UN seat and so too France if Mig and rafale doesnt go to them. I think its about making IAF strong and our allies understand it. The west will come close to us as whole when out military goes superior and they know we are a counter weight to most countries here.

Things to note. This is the first IAF tender where life cycle costs will be considered, but MoD officials complain that this may not be possible for some of the players whose aircraft have very short service histories.

This is a very interesting point. Looks like Gripen and F-18 won the peice of cake and Euro birds are out.

It is 8ak’s expectation that the final selection will be purely politics and will not be based on cost.

But here its a little contradictory, Either you support cost or you support political benifits. and if you support political benifits then Gripen doesnt have a chance at all....

To see what planes can be kicked out, we have following options.

1. To be very honest the way it looks. India is buying more Sukhois so Mig 35 wont be a burden on us.

2. US and India are still haggling over teh CISMOA aggreement and India is also buying other military hardwares from US, so they can be pused away from this deal in case an issue with TOT arises. but This doesnt make a good reason to kick out F-18 from teh competition.


3. France already has a major Mirage upgrade program costing billions and Scorpene deal with other areas like Maitri SAM project so they have some in the bag. and we should be surprised if teh second line submarine offer straight away goes to them!!!.

4. Now its the case of Eurofighter, they loose it in cost so what they will try to bargain os to bring India close with LCA project and protect advanced tech to go to advasaries. Germany, UK, Italy doent have any major contracts with us. However these are the countries which are strufggling for funds and with recent euro zone crisis would want to give just anything that India might want. It all depends on how Indian politician negotiate and make it a win win situation.

Euro fighter thus offers a good advantage here. Leaving the cost alone and just you dont have enough political reason to Kick this fighter away.

5. Last but not the elast Gripen will always remain a favorite looking at its life cycle cost and India will again advertise its Independent foreign policy. However you cant kick it because its cheap.

Looks like F-18, Eurofighter and Gripen will fight it out at last. For various reasons.

Though I personally wanted Rafale to be here, but this is just my analysis.
I will still vote Rafale

 

[KEETARP]

One thing is clear 99.999% of members support Rafale/Eurofighter to win
0.1% support Gripen (includes me as well)
and i feel isolated on Mig35 ,me being the only one to support fulcrums .

If rafale wins , will ask Sancho to throw a party to everyone .
If Mig35/Gripen wins - I would do same

 

[CONNAN]

One thing is clear 99.999% of members support Rafale/Eurofighter to win
0.1% support Gripen (includes me as well)
and i feel isolated on Mig35 ,me being the only one to support fulcrums .

If rafale wins , will ask Sancho to throw a party to everyone .
If Mig35/Gripen wins - I would do same

i am coming to inda next month prateek ill throw a party if EF WINS EVERYBODY INVITED

 

[Dash]

One thing is clear 99.999% of members support Rafale/Eurofighter to win
0.1% support Gripen (includes me as well)
and i feel isolated on Mig35 ,me being the only one to support fulcrums .

If rafale wins , will ask Sancho to throw a party to everyone .
If Mig35/Gripen wins - I would do same

A classic case of ending the blame on Military professional being heartless

 

[sancho]

One thing is clear 99.999% of members support Rafale/Eurofighter to win
0.1% support Gripen (includes me as well)
and i feel isolated on Mig35 ,me being the only one to support fulcrums .

If rafale wins , will ask Sancho to throw a party to everyone .
If Mig35/Gripen wins - I would do same

As I said before, Gripen NG is more or less my second choice, but the Rafale is the only fighter that offers so many different advantages and that's the reason why many people supports it. I would be happy with any European fighter actually and I would be happy for IAF with F18SH too, but it lacks the advantages in many other field. The Mig 35 would be a choice that I couldn't understand at all, costly in operating it, limited A2G capabilities, no new weapons, or capabilities at all, overdependance and price increasings likely and with the experience of Migs quality issues in long terms, it is a bad choice anyway.

G8!

 

[CONNAN]

By Manu Sood Tuesday, July 6th, 2010 11:01 am
Posted in Air, International, Rumors

Read more: DoD Buzz | India Tackles $10B Fighter

ur colleague Manu Sood, editor of the Indian defense website 8ak​.in covers the impending $10 billion deal for the Indian Air Force’s new multi-role aircraft.

While it’s too soon to predict a likely winner for India’s huge competition for 126 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA), the first indicators should be out as early as the next week when the technical evaluation committee’s report comes out.

Reports state that this deal for 126 fighters will cost $10 billion, but there exist huge price variances between the offered fighters of varying capability. And this figure is a lifecycle cost – not an acquisition cost — so it is not clear if the number of fighters is fixed or whether the budget figure is. Half the fighters would not qualify even before going in to trials depending on the answer.

This is the first indication of the general confusion in the competition. The second is why a single engine aircraft with a 1970’s airframe is in the same competition as the most modern and expensive twin engine heavy hitter. The Indian Ministry of Defense has drafted the tender so broadly that most fighters would qualify. But this lackadaisical attitude will cost competitors hundreds of millions of dollars when they compete but fail. One competitor told 8ak that the competition could cost each bidder an average of $180 million given costs such as each bomb drop in live weapons’ trials could cost up to US$1 million.

Already there are reports that some competitors have failed to meet requirements in the early stages of the competition. On Mar 26, Shiv Aroor reported that four contenders failed their high altitude tests in Leh. This has not been since confirmed. Certainly, no contender has given signs of withdrawing from the competition.

For all its drawbacks, the competition is transparent. If any vendor is kicked out, India will have to give explicit reasons for which part of the tests it failed. So even if the IAF did not want a particular aircraft, if all the tick boxes were checked, no company can be eliminated at this stage even if they have no chance of eventually winning.

The threat driving the competition is a two-front war with Pakistan and China. With both states having nuclear weapons a deep-penetration strike is virtually ruled-out as per Brig Kanwal of CLAWS (Centre for Land Warfare Studies) since it would risk over-flying an enemy’s secret nuclear installations. He further says that there is an 80 percent to 90 percent probability that the next war will break out in the mountains and at least a 60 percent probability that the next war will remain limited to the mountains. In this scenario, the requirement of extended range is minimal.

With advances in technology, the fighter itself is losing importance and fast becoming a carrier for equipment such as AESA radars, sophisticated missiles and electronic warfare equipment. With miniaturization similar capabilities can be built in to smaller, lighter planes.

At the top-end, India has already made a choice, the Sukhois for which no tender is required. With delays in the indigenous Light Combat Aircraft Tejas project, buying another top-end fighter would mean that the IAF would be too top-heavy. Facing the prospect of a two-front war, large coverage area and the dwindling fleet (32 squadrons of 12 to 18 fighters versus a minimum of 39.5 sanctioned by the government) it is clear that the IAF needs a high number of planes to cover more areas and to deliver more sorties.

Given the above it looks as if a cheaper fighter will best suit India’s limited budget. This bends the odds in favor of single-engine competitors or the Russians, who are expected to offer the MiG-35 at a cheap price.

Things to note. This is the first IAF tender where life cycle costs will be considered, but MoD officials complain that this may not be possible for some of the players whose aircraft have very short service histories. With limited skills to evaluate such technically complex calculations, MoD may put a higher weight back to the initial price though this may just be a negotiating tactic.

It is common in Indian procurement programs for the services role to be limited to conducting tests. For the most part, the Ministry of Defense makes the decision. The bigger the deal, the more likely it is that Parliament and the government will weigh in. One source told 8ak that it would be best for the IAF to tell MoD which fighters they do not want and then let the government make a political decision.

Nobody can read the mind of the Indian government when it comes to politics. But here is our analysis.

The continuing strength of the Russian-India relationship has repeatedly surprised everyone. In a pure political face-off it is unlikely that any country would be able to outmaneuver Russia. If the past is Russian and the future (limited joint-development of Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft) is Russian, then from a training, spares, infrastructure and familiarity perspective it makes sense to stay with the Russians.

The U.S. often has the best technologies but arms export restrictions can counterbalance the technology advantages. In a war with either Pakistan or China India cannot risk a situation where the U.S. might withhold support of spares or otherwise try to influence India’s behavior. However, the lure of U.S. backing India for a UN Security Council seat is quite lucrative and in a July 2010 report by senior Pentagon official Michele Flournoy made it clear that the U.S. is putting a lot of strategic value on the fighter aircraft deal and has made it clear that they would like to see a U.S. choice. This was backed by the US Navy putting its support behind the Super Hornet for India.

France has recently, virtually given up on sales to Pakistan and thereby made a strong commitment to India that will not go unnoticed. While they are a more reliable defense partner than the US, they are prone to mind-numbing price increases as witnessed in the Scorpene and more recent Turbomeca/HAL deals. EADS has pointed out that it is actually supported by a consortium of four countries plus France but Indian analysts believe that India would have little influence over a consortium and hence their political value is diminished.

The key drawback with the Gripen is that Sweden is seen as the least politically influential country. But there is a catch! What is and should be most important to India, possibly even more than international politics is to build indigenous capabilities. Saab’s Asia Pacific head Jan Widerstrom has pointed out that for a large US military supplier $10 billion spread out over decades is not a very big contract. But for Saab, with Euro 3 billion in annual sales, this would shift the company’s interests to India. This is supported by Par Rohmann, the head of the technology transfer programs, who says Saab would co-develop critical technologies with India. But the Gripen uses a U.S. engine and many other components, which could allow the U.S. to play spoilsport.

Corruption continues to be a huge problem in military deals here. Despite both Defense Minister A.K. Antony and the Prime Minister having squeaky clean images, corruption in India has reached very serious levels.

It is 8ak’s expectation that the final selection will be purely politics and will not be based on cost. Russia may have been eased out and US is in danger that its restrictive policies may become unpalatable in India. Eurofighter and Rafale are great platforms. If cost was not an issue, then these would win. But cost and numbers are an issue so, if Saab pushes hard enough, you never know. And that is the current prediction. You never know.