A 'could' is not a prediction. Anyone can use 'could' and make his argument sounds smart. I had a friend in the news business and learned a few things. Anytime there is a deadline, like a weekend, and a writer is short on material, he can just trot out a quasi 'news' article filled with 'could', 'possibly', or 'potential'. Done.
Even if Finland's petition for NATO membership is under review, any military action by Russia WILL trigger a unified NATO/Europe response as if Finland is an official member. And this time, with lessons learned from Ukraine, that response will be military, not just economic and political. Then given the sorry performance of the Russian military in Ukraine, NATO air forces will first remove the VKS from the sky, then support NATO ground forces to remove the Russian Army from anywhere Russia is not wanted.
Your 'could' is no more credible than mine.