February 2019 Indo/Pak Standoff - Unanswered Questions

[Sine Nomine]

India crossed the border because we want to eliminate terrorists .
And we anticiptated everything except Abhinadab courage

We need more anticipation.

 

[araz]

We have a Parliamentary Accounts Committee in India .
That committee can summon even PM for questioning .
You know what I mean .The supposed powerful PM is also have to answer the Parliament let alone Triservice Chiefs.

So if there is a single life loss life or the machine ( their service is also important) during a conflict ,they have to acknowledged that ,whether there is a morale in their or not.
After Balakot strike ,the relatives of Pulwama victim asked for bodies picture ,something that will never happen in other nations.
This is India .
Hiding is not an option but disaster in India especially when it deals with national security

You are right .Nothing can cover during this moblie phone era .That is why the video was circulated when three pilots parachuted to Azad Kashmir including Abhinandan .
Two other chutes were 'unknown'
and Mig is single seat and All Su returned to base after it spoofs AIM.

This is not a situation of hiding a loss. The IAF reported a loss of a mig21 in Badgam.It is standard procedure for Forces chiefs to give presentations to the various accounts committee in Private and news are not leaked out.
We are all puzzled by the 3 parachutes story.F16.net will latch onto any 16/52 lost if it does occur. No such news there. I think it is fair to say in the interest of neutrality that we dont know what caused people to see 3 parachutes and who they belonged to.
We will have to wait till the real story comes out to get authenticated version. PAF denies 16s being present which we know is a bit of an exaggeration in that they were on duty INSIDE Pak territory to fulfill their defensive role. This has been communicated to the US and they have no problem with it. All sources inside PAF are unanimously claiming downing an SU30 along with a Mig 21.However again no proof has been presented.
A

India crossed the border because we want to eliminate terrorists .
And we anticiptated everything except Abhinadab courage

Again in the presence of a known IOK person being the perpetrator, in the interest of Neutrality how ca you claim that? If you look at who gains the most from this whole episode it seems that the most likely to gain from this episode will be Modi. Paklands are in the process of rstoring thier broken economy, inviting guests to invest in Paklands. This is the worst time for them to perpetrate any aggression, conventional or Hybrid, inside India knowing fully well Indians will be forced to respond. Looking at it neutrally it does not make any sense for Pakistan to do it.
A

 

[SrNair]

This is not a situation of hiding a loss. The IAF reported a loss of a mig21 in Badgam.It is standard procedure for Forces chiefs to give presentations to the various accounts committee in Private and news are not leaked out.
We are all puzzled by the 3 parachutes story.F16.net will latch onto any 16/52 lost if it does occur. No such news there. I think it is fair to say in the interest of neutrality that we dont know what caused people to see 3 parachutes and who they belonged to.
We will have to wait till the real story comes out to get authenticated version. PAF denies 16s being present which we know is a bit of an exaggeration in that they were on duty INSIDE Pak territory to fulfill their defensive role. This has been communicated to the US and they have no problem with it. All sources inside PAF are unanimously claiming downing an SU30 along with a Mig 21.However again no proof has been presented.
A


Again in the presence of a known IOK person being the perpetrator, in the interest of Neutrality how ca you claim that? If you look at who gains the most from this whole episode it seems that the most likely to gain from this episode will be Modi. Paklands are in the process of rstoring thier broken economy, inviting guests to invest in Paklands. This is the worst time for them to perpetrate any aggression, conventional or Hybrid, inside India knowing fully well Indians will be forced to respond. Looking at it neutrally it does not make any sense for Pakistan to do it.
A

It wasnt a Mig 21 .It was an helis that destroyed due to technical glitches .
You are right .
Su 30 story is not reliable.Too much loopholes.
And IAF wont cross Loc with Su 30 for now .too much risk and escslation issues.

What if the preparator thinks the otherway ?
What if they thought that it would be business as usual means attacking our police and killing them will cause political backlash to Modi ,to prove that he cant ful fill the promise he gave to Indians that he will eliminate terrorist attack ?

They knows a revenge will follow ,so this time they just abondon Azad Kashmir line and went in to Pak territory .
But they didnt anticipitated the air strike.
If there was not reply ,it will seriously damage the image of Modi .
But his character is different unlike former PM
What ever it is we can see that if he decides something ,he wont step back .If he says he will do it then he will do it.

JeM already claimed just after the Pulwama.
PM Modi just used the opportunity provided by moronic JeM .

 

[deckingraj]

My only observation to your logic is that if that was the case why did IAF persue PAF across IB. They could just have turned back knowing fully well the PAF had crossed over to their side. Did they do it in the heat of the moment or did their radars go blank with them losing situational awareness? These are questions which if answered would have led to political jingoism on both sides but no losses. In short there are more questions then there are answers. The problem from my side is the Indian media which inflated the situation and indeed caused harm to the Indian narrative.
A

Actually there you can count on us, no matter what the situation is, we are very well capable of harming Indian narrative. To be honest, we are in a very new territory and still smarting up on it. Actions on other side of LOC was unheard of(atleast in Public domain), let alone IB. Just to set up some context, ask any random Indian(stick more to northern part) and they will be able to simply parrot out Indian narrative on Kashmir and Pakistan role in it however this is new. Also we don't have concept of "DGP ISPR" role on our side, though this time he was an embarrassment. God knows why, he has not been sacked yet.

Anyways, we have a history of being soft on terror and now there is a PM who has shown Indian masses that actions can be taken deep inside Pakistan. Obviously political forces(read opposition) need to put holes in that, which means, Indians were more busy parroting Pakistan narrative as compared to Pakistanis ..lol...Having said that, narratives are for Internet warriors. It is nothing but a feel good factor. Average Pakistani might think they have beaten India blue black and vice-versa, truth is, it means nothing. What is more serious is that, airspace is no longer sacrosanct. Terrorists are going no where and there is every chance Migs, MKI's, Mirages are again going to meet their counterparts. This time we have been lucky, next time, we may very well run out of it. This is what sane minds need to worry about.

 

[The Deterrent]

Hi @The Deterrent
It does matter because, without the physical infrastructure in place there can be no materialization of the new doctrine. And some of these things we are talking about here take time to mature- for instance the BMD/SSBN patrols etc. My main point here is, you are being overly paranoid here. It will still take India a good 5-8 years before some of these systems mature to the level where it can instill confidence in higher echelon to undertake a change in doctrine. As for Pakistani ability to counter it, I am afraid a lot will depend on the financial capabilities and technological sharing agreement with China. Remember the fact that India is undertaking a massive modernization of her nuclear strike posture (viz the cannisterization, SSBN, ultra long range tracking systems, miniaturization of composite rocket motors etc) has an added effect that it WILL force Pakistan to spend disproportionately more funds towards her own nuclear program. Also regardless of what a lot of people claim here, India spends a lot less as a percentage of her GDP on defence vis-a-vis Pakistan. The real figure hardly ever exceeded 2% of GDP whereas for Pakistan it is officially 3.5-3.7% of GDP and unofficially much more higher. As a result India can sustain the defence spending to the tune of $60-70bn annually without straining too much, however the same is not true for Pakistan. I am afraid I have digressed too much!

True, but efforts are ongoing in this regard. These visible changes do not appear in the first place if the doctrine hasn't been changed. So we can say that its a work in progress. My concern is where this progress will lead to regarding the regional strategic stability.
Negative, Pakistan neither has nor will spend disproportionately on its strategic weapons program. According to ex DG SPD, Lt. Gen. Khalid Kidwai, the ENTIRE program takes a small fraction of the Pakistan military's budget. Pakistan only has to sustain the numbers its generating, with minor improvements, to deny India the advantage.

OT, More third-party analysis:
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/indias-strike-on-balakot-a-very-precise-miss/

 

[Sergi]

This is not a situation of hiding a loss. The IAF reported a loss of a mig21 in Badgam.It is standard procedure for Forces chiefs to give presentations to the various accounts committee in Private and news are not leaked out.
We are all puzzled by the 3 parachutes story.F16.net will latch onto any 16/52 lost if it does occur. No such news there. I think it is fair to say in the interest of neutrality that we dont know what caused people to see 3 parachutes and who they belonged to.
We will have to wait till the real story comes out to get authenticated version. PAF denies 16s being present which we know is a bit of an exaggeration in that they were on duty INSIDE Pak territory to fulfill their defensive role. This has been communicated to the US and they have no problem with it. All sources inside PAF are unanimously claiming downing an SU30 along with a Mig 21.However again no proof has been presented.

Let’s just for the sake of argument let’s agree PAF shot down MKI. OK ??? So where do you think it would have crashed ??? In Indian Kashmir right ??? And we all know if a jet is crashed in Kashmir locals would have posted videos and pics of that debris. Won’t they ??? Some of them would have. So now the shot MKI heroically flown the distance where local can’t see

You can take your own pick

 

[araz]

Let’s just for the sake of argument let’s agree PAF shot down MKI. OK ??? So where do you think it would have crashed ??? In Indian Kashmir right ??? And we all know if a jet is crashed in Kashmir locals would have posted videos and pics of that debris. Won’t they ??? Some of them would have. So now the shot MKI heroically flown the distance where local can’t see

You can take your own pick

I did mention in my post that so far ther is no tangible proof of SU30 Loss. So why did you find it so funny?
A

 

[M.SAAD]

Let’s just for the sake of argument let’s agree PAF shot down MKI. OK ??? So where do you think it would have crashed ??? In Indian Kashmir right ??? And we all know if a jet is crashed in Kashmir locals would have posted videos and pics of that debris. Won’t they ??? Some of them would have. So now the shot MKI heroically flown the distance where local can’t see

You can take your own pick

Most of the Kashmiri population is located far from the IOK side of the LOC where army is located , so chances are that it fell close to ur side of LOC where ur army is mostly present and they hid the debris of Su30 MKI..

 

[amardeep mishra]

True, but efforts are ongoing in this regard. These visible changes do not appear in the first place if the doctrine hasn't been changed. So we can say that its a work in progress. My concern is where this progress will lead to regarding the regional strategic stability.
Negative, Pakistan neither has nor will spend disproportionately on its strategic weapons program. According to ex DG SPD, Lt. Gen. Khalid Kidwai, the ENTIRE program takes a small fraction of the Pakistan military's budget. Pakistan only has to sustain the numbers its generating, with minor improvements, to deny India the advantage.

OT, More third-party analysis:
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/indias-strike-on-balakot-a-very-precise-miss/

Hi @The Deterrent
Tbh, at present the doctrine might have been re-tuned vis-a-vis Pakistan, but I dont think it is as massive a change as you are describing it. As I said the physical infrastructure takes time to mature and it will still take a minimum of 5 years before lets say India has at least 4-5 SSBNs that can be deployed on around the year deterrent patrols. Same is the case with deployment of BMDs. This particular test, also demonstrates the capability to design BMDs for ICBM class of target that can be taken out at near apogee etc (the missile can be fired in highly lofted trajectories). However for indo-atmospheric interception of ICBM class of targets they would need interceptors with very high speed for instance 5-7km/sec that requires research in very high energetic propellants- only a few countries have the access to that kind of energetic materials- US, Russia (not even China has that kind of propellants!).
As for the spending, Pakistan unfortunately is very opaque when it comes to defence spending in general. Sadly I would have to take the figures presented by Lt. Gen. Kidwai with a pinch of salt. The lack of a credible autonomous auditing agencies that can monitor Pakistan's defence program- be it conventional or otherwise- gives birth to various legends etc. Something very different from India where CAG regularly flaks everyone right from the DRDO to DPSUs etc.
Finally coming over to the article written by ASPI, I would like to point out-that- if the assumption that the bombs really fell off the mark were indeed true, then it has got to do with faulty desired coordinates. Since I have extensively worked on GPS based guidance/ reinforcement learning, I guess I can present it in some depth. First off, in order to guide a weapon to it's desired 'fixed' position, you need-
(A) The position coordinates of your missile in earth fixed inertial frame.
(B) The position coordinates of your target in the same earth fixed inertial frame.
Now you get #A from the GPS and barometer installed on your missile. The barometer will tell you altitude of your missile- there are various accurate ones available out there. However #B is slightly tricky in the sense that you need the position coordinate vector- [$x_d;y_d;z_d$]. Out of these, $z_d$ is a bit complicated to calculate for #B. One can readily get the "ellipsoid altitude" along with lat and long data for all the points on earth now using GPS. But one would have to convert these figures into earth fixed inertial frames in order to implement any guidance schemes like LOOKAHEAD GUIDANCE scheme. In order To convert ellipsoidal height to mean sea level altitude you need a geoid undulations model of the region you are working on. Depending on the required precision, you can use a global model like EGM2008 ondulation data. One needs to subtract this number from the ellipsoid height to get practical altitude values for missile targeting solutions. The best way to generate geoid undulations is to have SAR satellite map the entire region. So it is not entirely impossible that they (IAF) did not have "accurate" undulation data for the local topography in order to autonomously guide using the GPS. They could have bypassed this problem using a laser designator however that would mean higher loitering time in the enemy territory. I think this should prompt the Indian leadership to inject a network of SAR satellites into orbit - particularly the x-band SAR to produce high resolution maps of the local topography. It will help enormously in our cruise missile program!

 

[The Deterrent]

Hi @The Deterrent
Tbh, at present the doctrine might have been re-tuned vis-a-vis Pakistan, but I dont think it is as massive a change as you are describing it. As I said the physical infrastructure takes time to mature and it will still take a minimum of 5 years before lets say India has at least 4-5 SSBNs that can be deployed on around the year deterrent patrols. Same is the case with deployment of BMDs. This particular test, also demonstrates the capability to design BMDs for ICBM class of target that can be taken out at near apogee etc (the missile can be fired in highly lofted trajectories). However for indo-atmospheric interception of ICBM class of targets they would need interceptors with very high speed for instance 5-7km/sec that requires research in very high energetic propellants- only a few countries have the access to that kind of energetic materials- US, Russia (not even China has that kind of propellants!).
As for the spending, Pakistan unfortunately is very opaque when it comes to defence spending in general. Sadly I would have to take the figures presented by Lt. Gen. Kidwai with a pinch of salt. The lack of a credible autonomous auditing agencies that can monitor Pakistan's defence program- be it conventional or otherwise- gives birth to various legends etc. Something very different from India where CAG regularly flaks everyone right from the DRDO to DPSUs etc.

Again, what I referred to was EFFORT to bring a change; How massive will be the change? Only time will tell. But all indications are there.

You are free to believe whatever your prefer regarding Pakistani Strategic Weapons Program's costs.

Finally coming over to the article written by ASPI, I would like to point out-that- if the assumption that the bombs really fell off the mark were indeed true, then it has got to do with faulty desired coordinates. Since I have extensively worked on GPS based guidance/ reinforcement learning, I guess I can present it in some depth. First off, in order to guide a weapon to it's desired 'fixed' position, you need-
(A) The position coordinates of your missile in earth fixed inertial frame.
(B) The position coordinates of your target in the same earth fixed inertial frame.
Now you get #A from the GPS and barometer installed on your missile. The barometer will tell you altitude of your missile- there are various accurate ones available out there. However #B is slightly tricky in the sense that you need the position coordinate vector- [$x_d;y_d;z_d$]. Out of these, $z_d$ is a bit complicated to calculate for #B. One can readily get the "ellipsoid altitude" along with lat and long data for all the points on earth now using GPS. But one would have to convert these figures into earth fixed inertial frames in order to implement any guidance schemes like LOOKAHEAD GUIDANCE scheme. In order To convert ellipsoidal height to mean sea level altitude you need a geoid undulations model of the region you are working on. Depending on the required precision, you can use a global model like EGM2008 ondulation data. One needs to subtract this number from the ellipsoid height to get practical altitude values for missile targeting solutions. The best way to generate geoid undulations is to have SAR satellite map the entire region. So it is not entirely impossible that they (IAF) did not have "accurate" undulation data for the local topography in order to autonomously guide using the GPS. They could have bypassed this problem using a laser designator however that would mean higher loitering time in the enemy territory. I think this should prompt the Indian leadership to inject a network of SAR satellites into orbit - particularly the x-band SAR to produce high resolution maps of the local topography. It will help enormously in our cruise missile program!

Good analysis. At first I believed that the strike was a shot-across-the-bow, but that could've been done on the other side of the hill as well. The apparent fact that the SPICE-2000s passed ~30m above the JeM Madrassa and continued till they met the foot of the ridge (thereby laterally missing by 100-200m), tells us that IAF had clear intentions to hit the target. The Mirage-2000s were not "thwarted" nor did they "release" their payloads in a "hurry".

A systematic GPS error led to all the SPICE-2000s missing their targets.

 

[amardeep mishra]

Good analysis. At first I believed that the strike was a shot-across-the-bow, but that could've been done on the other side of the hill as well. The apparent fact that the SPICE-2000s passed ~30m above the JeM Madrassa and continued till they met the foot of the ridge (thereby laterally missing by 100-200m), tells us that IAF had clear intentions to hit the target. The Mirage-2000s were not "thwarted" nor did they "release" their payloads in a "hurry".

A systematic GPS error led to all the SPICE-2000s missing their targets.

Hi!
A lot of people do not know that the altitude given by the GPS isnt the actual one or earth fixed one. In order to convert this number into something more meaningful, we need geoid ondulation model or map of the local topography in order to find the desired position coordinates of the target where we want our missile to go. I feel, if the bombs really missed the JeM training camps, then this might be the only issue.

 

[CriticalThought]

Hi!
A lot of people do not know that the altitude given by the GPS isnt the actual one or earth fixed one. In order to convert this number into something more meaningful, we need geoid ondulation model or map of the local topography in order to find the desired position coordinates of the target where we want our missile to go. I feel, if the bombs really missed the JeM training camps, then this might be the only issue.

Have these bombs been used in mountainous terrain before?

 

[amardeep mishra]

Have these bombs been used in mountainous terrain before?

Hi @CriticalThought I am afraid I do not know if they've been used before in mountainous terrain before. But the problem is more to do with finding accurate 'desired position coordinates' of the target. This as I've explained above requires precise geoid undulation maps

 

[fitpOsitive]

Brief summary:
On February 14th 2019, a suicide car-bombing attack on a Indian CRPF convoy left over 40 security personnel dead, for which the Pakistan-based JeM claimed responsibility. In the aftermath, on February 26th, the Government of India claimed that the Indian Air Force had carried out preemptive air-strikes against multiple terrorist camps inside Pakistan, around 0330hrs. While GoI declared the intended 'non-military' targets being destroyed and terrorists eliminated, the Pakistani Armed Forces denied any damages and claimed to have thwarted the strike. The following day around 1000hrs, the Pakistani Air Force carried out retaliatory strikes against multiple 'non-military' targets as a show-of-force, hitting inside compounds of Indian Army's forward military installations without causing any damages. The strike quickly evolved into a brawl involving up to 30 fighter aircrafts over the disputed territory of Kashmir, resulting in 1 MiG-21 Bison of the IAF being shot down over Pakistani territory, crashing roughly 5km across the Line of Control. The pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, was captured alive and subsequently released on March 1st.

PAF also claimed another kill, of an IAF Su-30MKI, while IAF claimed that their captured pilot had shot down a PAF F-16 before being shot down himself. Both claims remain unverified to this date as no crashed wreckage of either was publicly found, and both air forces maintain that no other aircrafts were lost. The entire episode involved a lot of drama and twisting of facts by both sides to justify their claims. The resulting 'fog of war' left many questions unanswered, as explained below:

1. Why did the IAF's 4x SPICE-2000 equipped 2000lbs bombs miss their target(s) at Balakot by 100-200m?
A. Is it possible that, despite the SPICE being an autonomous battle-tested SOW kit with a 3m CEP, harsh weather played its role? Consequently, did IAF unknowingly give GoI an inaccurate bomb damage assessment, trusting the weapon system? Did Mirage-2000s not have the IIR feed of the SPICE seekers, due to LoS because of terrain?
B. Or was this an intentional, shot-across-the-bow, meant to send a message to Pakistan? If yes, why did GoI claim a large number of terrorists being eliminated? Did GoI unnecessarily politicize the strike, hoping to kill two birds with one stone? Did GoI underestimate the national and international questioning of the validity of its claims?


2. Why was there no subsequent mention of the other two GoI-claimed targets at Muzaffarabad & Chakothi?
A. Did the Pakistani military cover up the strikes at those locations?
B. Or were there no strikes at those locations to begin with? Why wasn't there any immediate reporting of any such event, on both local news and social media?


3. Why was the retaliatory PAF strike package not intercepted inside Indian territory?
A. Did the IAF not have enough CAP units in the region, given the threat of imminent retaliation? Were they merely out of range? Were there no active SAMs in the region?
B. Or did PAF employ multiple divisive intrusion tactics in the same region, leading to IAF CAPs being distracted and outnumbered?


4. Why did Wing Commander Abhinandan went alone after PAF fighters in hot pursuit, given the proximity of LoC?
A. Did he violate RoEs and ignore the instructions given by his GCI to not proceed? If yes, is this a one-off case?
B. If he didn't, why didn't his wingman follow his suit? Why did the Su-30MKIs/Mirage-2000s fail to provide cover to the aircraft(s) going in hot pursuit?


5. Why didn't the IAF Su-30MKIs retaliate when PAF fighters launched BVRAAMs towards them?
A. Is this a simple case of the priority to execute evasive maneuvers and jamming?
B. Or did the Su-30MKIs not have a valid firing solution, given the RoEs and the rapid egression of PAF fighters?


6. Which 2-seater fighter aircraft went down in close-proximity to MiG-21, as dual ejections were seen by multiple eye-witnesses and in videos?
A. Was it a PAF aircraft (F-16B/D or Mirage-III) shot down in Pakistani territory by the MiG-21 Bison, as claimed by the IAF?
B. Or was it an IAF aircraft (Su-30MKI or Mirage-2000) shot down in the Indian territory, as claimed by PAF?


7. What was the identity of the additional injured pilot(s) in possession of Pakistan, as initially claimed by DG ISPR and PM Imran Khan?
A. If it was Pakistani, did GoP misidentify the pilot due to his possible severely injured state? If yes, why didn't the PAF communicate to DG ISPR and GoP that their pilot(s) also went down in the dogfight?
B. If it was Indian, did GoP brush the incident under the carpet due to the possible death of the IAF pilot?


8. Why did the IAF Mi-17 went down in the same time frame close to Badgam as the dogfight over LoC?
A. Was it a mere coincidence that despite Mi-17 being a robust aircraft, it suffered a technical failure following an explosion as reported by eyewitnesses?
B. Or considering the photos of a punched-out hole in the tail of the Mi-17, is it possible that it was a case of fratricide? If yes, was it shot down by a SAM from the Srinagar AFS or by an AAM from an IAF aircraft? If no, was it inadvertently shot down by the PAF, given it was less than 100km away from the area of engagement, within the ~100km range of an AIM-120-C5?


9. Why didn't the Indian Military retaliate to the PAF strike, given it struck in close proximity of IA's military installations?
A. Did GoI and the Indian Military call it a day and declared scores being settled, since no damage was done to IA's military installations?
B. Or did the Indian Military prepare to escalate with a retaliatory Air/Missile strike? If yes, why was it called off? Did the Indian public's emotions regarding the shot down pilot play a role? Did the International Community alone prevent India from doing so? Or did Pakistan's probable mobilization of nuclear weapons played its role?


10. Why did the Indian Submarine surface close to the Pakistani coast?
A. Was this on purpose, to demonstrate a show-of-force? If yes, is exposing a submarine's signature to a maritime surveillance aircraft worth it?
B. If not, was it unavoidable snorkeling, since the submarine was already on a course away (SW) from the Pakistani coast?

Some helpful third-party analysis:
https://in.reuters.com/article/uk-india-kashmir-pakistan-airstrike-insi-idINKCN1QN02Z
https://www.euspaceimaging.com/paki...ms-india-missed-target-in-pakistan-airstrike/
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/rest-of-world/2019/03/02/falcon-vs-bison-verifying-a-mig-21-wreck/

The answer to all of these questions is : India came to know later that who was actually behind the Pulwama attack. The way Pakistan responded, was also damn clear the at whose side USA really is.
It was all about the vanasvella oil crisis, and India took the lesson very well.
https://wap.business-standard.com/a...-february-imports-jump-66-119021601191_1.html

Now, India will buy crude from US.
As I always say, people around the globe are playing with both India and Pakistan. And we fool enough to be toys in their hands.
Let free kashmir, both from Pakistan and India, and make it a separate country.
Let leave enmity behind, and let's build the future of our generations.