February 2019 Indo/Pak Standoff - Unanswered Questions

[The Deterrent]

Brief summary:
On February 14th 2019, a suicide car-bombing attack on a Indian CRPF convoy left over 40 security personnel dead, for which the Pakistan-based JeM claimed responsibility. In the aftermath, on February 26th, the Government of India claimed that the Indian Air Force had carried out preemptive air-strikes against multiple terrorist camps inside Pakistan, around 0330hrs. While GoI declared the intended 'non-military' targets being destroyed and terrorists eliminated, the Pakistani Armed Forces denied any damages and claimed to have thwarted the strike. The following day around 1000hrs, the Pakistani Air Force carried out retaliatory strikes against multiple 'non-military' targets as a show-of-force, hitting inside compounds of Indian Army's forward military installations without causing any damages. The strike quickly evolved into a brawl involving up to 30 fighter aircrafts over the disputed territory of Kashmir, resulting in 1 MiG-21 Bison of the IAF being shot down over Pakistani territory, crashing roughly 5km across the Line of Control. The pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, was captured alive and subsequently released on March 1st.

PAF also claimed another kill, of an IAF Su-30MKI, while IAF claimed that their captured pilot had shot down a PAF F-16 before being shot down himself. Both claims remain unverified to this date as no crashed wreckage of either was publicly found, and both air forces maintain that no other aircrafts were lost. The entire episode involved a lot of drama and twisting of facts by both sides to justify their claims. The resulting 'fog of war' left many questions unanswered, as explained below:

1. Why did the IAF's 4x SPICE-2000 equipped 2000lbs bombs miss their target(s) at Balakot by 100-200m?
A. Is it possible that, despite the SPICE being an autonomous battle-tested SOW kit with a 3m CEP, harsh weather played its role? Consequently, did IAF unknowingly give GoI an inaccurate bomb damage assessment, trusting the weapon system? Did Mirage-2000s not have the IIR feed of the SPICE seekers, due to LoS because of terrain?
B. Or was this an intentional, shot-across-the-bow, meant to send a message to Pakistan? If yes, why did GoI claim a large number of terrorists being eliminated? Did GoI unnecessarily politicize the strike, hoping to kill two birds with one stone? Did GoI underestimate the national and international questioning of the validity of its claims?


2. Why was there no subsequent mention of the other two GoI-claimed targets at Muzaffarabad & Chakothi?
A. Did the Pakistani military cover up the strikes at those locations?
B. Or were there no strikes at those locations to begin with? Why wasn't there any immediate reporting of any such event, on both local news and social media?


3. Why was the retaliatory PAF strike package not intercepted inside Indian territory?
A. Did the IAF not have enough CAP units in the region, given the threat of imminent retaliation? Were they merely out of range? Were there no active SAMs in the region?
B. Or did PAF employ multiple divisive intrusion tactics in the same region, leading to IAF CAPs being distracted and outnumbered?


4. Why did Wing Commander Abhinandan went alone after PAF fighters in hot pursuit, given the proximity of LoC?
A. Did he violate RoEs and ignore the instructions given by his GCI to not proceed? If yes, is this a one-off case?
B. If he didn't, why didn't his wingman follow his suit? Why did the Su-30MKIs/Mirage-2000s fail to provide cover to the aircraft(s) going in hot pursuit?


5. Why didn't the IAF Su-30MKIs retaliate when PAF fighters launched BVRAAMs towards them?
A. Is this a simple case of the priority to execute evasive maneuvers and jamming?
B. Or did the Su-30MKIs not have a valid firing solution, given the RoEs and the rapid egression of PAF fighters?


6. Which 2-seater fighter aircraft went down in close-proximity to MiG-21, as dual ejections were seen by multiple eye-witnesses and in videos?
A. Was it a PAF aircraft (F-16B/D or Mirage-III) shot down in Pakistani territory by the MiG-21 Bison, as claimed by the IAF?
B. Or was it an IAF aircraft (Su-30MKI or Mirage-2000) shot down in the Indian territory, as claimed by PAF?


7. What was the identity of the additional injured pilot(s) in possession of Pakistan, as initially claimed by DG ISPR and PM Imran Khan?
A. If it was Pakistani, did GoP misidentify the pilot due to his possible severely injured state? If yes, why didn't the PAF communicate to DG ISPR and GoP that their pilot(s) also went down in the dogfight?
B. If it was Indian, did GoP brush the incident under the carpet due to the possible death of the IAF pilot?


8. Why did the IAF Mi-17 went down in the same time frame close to Badgam as the dogfight over LoC?
A. Was it a mere coincidence that despite Mi-17 being a robust aircraft, it suffered a technical failure following an explosion as reported by eyewitnesses?
B. Or considering the photos of a punched-out hole in the tail of the Mi-17, is it possible that it was a case of fratricide? If yes, was it shot down by a SAM from the Srinagar AFS or by an AAM from an IAF aircraft? If no, was it inadvertently shot down by the PAF, given it was less than 100km away from the area of engagement, within the ~100km range of an AIM-120-C5?


9. Why didn't the Indian Military retaliate to the PAF strike, given it struck in close proximity of IA's military installations?
A. Did GoI and the Indian Military call it a day and declared scores being settled, since no damage was done to IA's military installations?
B. Or did the Indian Military prepare to escalate with a retaliatory Air/Missile strike? If yes, why was it called off? Did the Indian public's emotions regarding the shot down pilot play a role? Did the International Community alone prevent India from doing so? Or did Pakistan's probable mobilization of nuclear weapons played its role?


10. Why did the Indian Submarine surface close to the Pakistani coast?
A. Was this on purpose, to demonstrate a show-of-force? If yes, is exposing a submarine's signature to a maritime surveillance aircraft worth it?
B. If not, was it unavoidable snorkeling, since the submarine was already on a course away (SW) from the Pakistani coast?

Some helpful third-party analysis:
https://in.reuters.com/article/uk-india-kashmir-pakistan-airstrike-insi-idINKCN1QN02Z
https://www.euspaceimaging.com/paki...ms-india-missed-target-in-pakistan-airstrike/
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/rest-of-world/2019/03/02/falcon-vs-bison-verifying-a-mig-21-wreck/

 

[alee92nawaz]

Brief summary:
On February 14th 2019, a suicide car-bombing attack on a Indian CRPF convoy left over 40 security personnel dead, for which the Pakistan-based JeM claimed responsibility. In the aftermath, on February 26th, the Government of India claimed that the Indian Air Force had carried out preemptive air-strikes against multiple terrorist camps inside Pakistan, around 0330hrs. While GoI declared the intended 'non-military' targets being destroyed and terrorists eliminated, the Pakistani Armed Forces denied any damages and claimed to have thwarted the strike. The following day around 1000hrs, the Pakistani Air Force carried out retaliatory strikes against multiple 'non-military' targets as a show-of-force, hitting inside compounds of Indian Army's forward military installations without causing any damages. The strike quickly evolved into a brawl involving up to 30 fighter aircrafts over the disputed territory of Kashmir, resulting in 1 MiG-21 Bison of the IAF being shot down over Pakistani territory, crashing roughly 5km across the Line of Control. The pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, was captured alive and subsequently released on March 1st.

PAF also claimed another kill, of an IAF Su-30MKI, while IAF claimed that their captured pilot had shot down a PAF F-16 before being shot down himself. Both claims remain unverified to this date as no crashed wreckage of either was publicly found, and both air forces maintain that no other aircrafts were lost. The entire episode involved a lot of drama and twisting of facts by both sides to justify their claims. The resulting 'fog of war' left many questions unanswered, as explained below:

1. Why did the IAF's 4x SPICE-2000 equipped 2000lbs bombs miss their target(s) at Balakot by 100-200m?
A. Is it possible that, despite the SPICE being an autonomous battle-tested SOW kit with a 3m CEP, harsh weather played its role? Consequently, did IAF unknowingly give GoI an inaccurate bomb damage assessment, trusting the weapon system? Did Mirage-2000s not have the IIR feed of the SPICE seekers, due to LoS because of terrain?
B. Or was this an intentional, shot-across-the-bow, meant to send a message to Pakistan? If yes, why did GoI claim a large number of terrorists being eliminated? Did GoI unnecessarily politicize the strike, hoping to kill two birds with one stone? Did GoI underestimate the national and international questioning of the validity of its claims?


2. Why was there no subsequent mention of the other two GoI-claimed targets at Muzaffarabad & Chakothi?
A. Did the Pakistani military cover up the strikes at those locations?
B. Or were there no strikes at those locations to begin with? Why wasn't there any immediate reporting of any such event, on both local news and social media?


3. Why was the retaliatory PAF strike package not intercepted inside Indian territory?
A. Did the IAF not have enough CAP units in the region, given the threat of imminent retaliation? Were they merely out of range? Were there no active SAMs in the region?
B. Or did PAF employ multiple divisive intrusion tactics in the same region, leading to IAF CAPs being distracted and outnumbered?


4. Why did Wing Commander Abhinandan went alone after PAF fighters in hot pursuit, given the proximity of LoC?
A. Did he violate RoEs and ignore the instructions given by his GCI to not proceed? If yes, is this a one-off case?
B. If he didn't, why didn't his wingman follow his suit? Why did the Su-30MKIs/Mirage-2000s fail to provide cover to the aircraft(s) going in hot pursuit?


5. Why didn't the IAF Su-30MKIs retaliate when PAF fighters launched BVRAAMs towards them?
A. Is this a simple case of the priority to execute evasive maneuvers and jamming?
B. Or did the Su-30MKIs not have a valid firing solution, given the RoEs and the rapid egression of PAF fighters?


6. Which 2-seater fighter aircraft went down in close-proximity over the area, as dual ejections were seen by multiple eye-witnesses and in videos?
A. Was it a PAF aircraft (F-16B/D or Mirage-III) shot down in Pakistani territory by the MiG-21 Bison, as claimed by the IAF?
B. Or was it an IAF aircraft (Su-30MKI or Mirage-2000) shot down in the Indian territory, as claimed by PAF?


7. What was the identity of the additional injured pilot(s) in possession of Pakistan, as initially claimed by DG ISPR and PM Imran Khan?
A. If it was Pakistani, did GoP misidentify the pilot due to his possible severely injured state? If yes, why didn't the PAF communicate to DG ISPR and GoP that their pilot(s) also went down in the dogfight?
B. If it was Indian, did GoP brush the incident under the carpet due to the possible death of the IAF pilot?


8. Why did the IAF Mi-17 went down in the same time frame close to Badgam as the dogfight over LoC?
A. Was it a mere coincidence that despite Mi-17 being a robust aircraft, it suffered a technical failure following an explosion as reported by eyewitnesses?
B. Or considering the photos of a punched-out hole in the tail of the Mi-17, is it possible that it was a case of fratricide? If yes, was it shot down by a SAM from the Srinagar AFS or by an AAM from an IAF aircraft? If no, was it inadvertently shot down by the PAF, given it was less than 100km away from the area of engagement, within the ~100km range of an AIM-120-C5?


9. Why didn't the Indian Military retaliate to the PAF strike, given it struck in close proximity of IA's military installations?
A. Did GoI and the Indian Military call it a day and declared scores being settled, since no damage was done to IA's military installations?
B. Or did the Indian Military prepare to escalate with a retaliatory Air/Missile strike? If yes, why was it called off? Did the Indian public's emotions regarding the shot down pilot play a role? Did the International Community alone prevent India from doing so? Or did Pakistan's probable mobilization of nuclear weapons played its role?


10. Why did the Indian Submarine surface close to the Pakistani coast?
A. Was this on purpose, to demonstrate a show-of-force? If yes, is exposing a submarine's signature to a maritime surveillance aircraft worth it?
B. If not, was it unavoidable snorkeling, since the submarine was already on a course away (SW) from the Pakistani coast?

Some helpful third-party analysis:
https://in.reuters.com/article/uk-india-kashmir-pakistan-airstrike-insi-idINKCN1QN02Z
https://www.euspaceimaging.com/paki...ms-india-missed-target-in-pakistan-airstrike/
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/rest-of-world/2019/03/02/falcon-vs-bison-verifying-a-mig-21-wreck/

There are no answers for majority of them.

 

[SorryNotSorry]

Brief summary:
On February 14th 2019, a suicide car-bombing attack on a Indian CRPF convoy left over 40 security personnel dead, for which the Pakistan-based JeM claimed responsibility. In the aftermath, on February 26th, the Government of India claimed that the Indian Air Force had carried out preemptive air-strikes against multiple terrorist camps inside Pakistan, around 0330hrs. While GoI declared the intended 'non-military' targets being destroyed and terrorists eliminated, the Pakistani Armed Forces denied any damages and claimed to have thwarted the strike. The following day around 1000hrs, the Pakistani Air Force carried out retaliatory strikes against multiple 'non-military' targets as a show-of-force, hitting inside compounds of Indian Army's forward military installations without causing any damages. The strike quickly evolved into a brawl involving up to 30 fighter aircrafts over the disputed territory of Kashmir, resulting in 1 MiG-21 Bison of the IAF being shot down over Pakistani territory, crashing roughly 5km across the Line of Control. The pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, was captured alive and subsequently released on March 1st.

PAF also claimed another kill, of an IAF Su-30MKI, while IAF claimed that their captured pilot had shot down a PAF F-16 before being shot down himself. Both claims remain unverified to this date as no crashed wreckage of either was publicly found, and both air forces maintain that no other aircrafts were lost. The entire episode involved a lot of drama and twisting of facts by both sides to justify their claims. The resulting 'fog of war' left many questions unanswered, as explained below:

1. Why did the IAF's 4x SPICE-2000 equipped 2000lbs bombs miss their target(s) at Balakot by 100-200m?
A. Is it possible that, despite the SPICE being an autonomous battle-tested SOW kit with a 3m CEP, harsh weather played its role? Consequently, did IAF unknowingly give GoI an inaccurate bomb damage assessment, trusting the weapon system? Did Mirage-2000s not have the IIR feed of the SPICE seekers, due to LoS because of terrain?
B. Or was this an intentional, shot-across-the-bow, meant to send a message to Pakistan? If yes, why did GoI claim a large number of terrorists being eliminated? Did GoI unnecessarily politicize the strike, hoping to kill two birds with one stone? Did GoI underestimate the national and international questioning of the validity of its claims?


2. Why was there no subsequent mention of the other two GoI-claimed targets at Muzaffarabad & Chakothi?
A. Did the Pakistani military cover up the strikes at those locations?
B. Or were there no strikes at those locations to begin with? Why wasn't there any immediate reporting of any such event, on both local news and social media?


3. Why was the retaliatory PAF strike package not intercepted inside Indian territory?
A. Did the IAF not have enough CAP units in the region, given the threat of imminent retaliation? Were they merely out of range? Were there no active SAMs in the region?
B. Or did PAF employ multiple divisive intrusion tactics in the same region, leading to IAF CAPs being distracted and outnumbered?


4. Why did Wing Commander Abhinandan went alone after PAF fighters in hot pursuit, given the proximity of LoC?
A. Did he violate RoEs and ignore the instructions given by his GCI to not proceed? If yes, is this a one-off case?
B. If he didn't, why didn't his wingman follow his suit? Why did the Su-30MKIs/Mirage-2000s fail to provide cover to the aircraft(s) going in hot pursuit?


5. Why didn't the IAF Su-30MKIs retaliate when PAF fighters launched BVRAAMs towards them?
A. Is this a simple case of the priority to execute evasive maneuvers and jamming?
B. Or did the Su-30MKIs not have a valid firing solution, given the RoEs and the rapid egression of PAF fighters?


6. Which 2-seater fighter aircraft went down in close-proximity to MiG-21, as dual ejections were seen by multiple eye-witnesses and in videos?
A. Was it a PAF aircraft (F-16B/D or Mirage-III) shot down in Pakistani territory by the MiG-21 Bison, as claimed by the IAF?
B. Or was it an IAF aircraft (Su-30MKI or Mirage-2000) shot down in the Indian territory, as claimed by PAF?


7. What was the identity of the additional injured pilot(s) in possession of Pakistan, as initially claimed by DG ISPR and PM Imran Khan?
A. If it was Pakistani, did GoP misidentify the pilot due to his possible severely injured state? If yes, why didn't the PAF communicate to DG ISPR and GoP that their pilot(s) also went down in the dogfight?
B. If it was Indian, did GoP brush the incident under the carpet due to the possible death of the IAF pilot?


8. Why did the IAF Mi-17 went down in the same time frame close to Badgam as the dogfight over LoC?
A. Was it a mere coincidence that despite Mi-17 being a robust aircraft, it suffered a technical failure following an explosion as reported by eyewitnesses?
B. Or considering the photos of a punched-out hole in the tail of the Mi-17, is it possible that it was a case of fratricide? If yes, was it shot down by a SAM from the Srinagar AFS or by an AAM from an IAF aircraft? If no, was it inadvertently shot down by the PAF, given it was less than 100km away from the area of engagement, within the ~100km range of an AIM-120-C5?


9. Why didn't the Indian Military retaliate to the PAF strike, given it struck in close proximity of IA's military installations?
A. Did GoI and the Indian Military call it a day and declared scores being settled, since no damage was done to IA's military installations?
B. Or did the Indian Military prepare to escalate with a retaliatory Air/Missile strike? If yes, why was it called off? Did the Indian public's emotions regarding the shot down pilot play a role? Did the International Community alone prevent India from doing so? Or did Pakistan's probable mobilization of nuclear weapons played its role?


10. Why did the Indian Submarine surface close to the Pakistani coast?
A. Was this on purpose, to demonstrate a show-of-force? If yes, is exposing a submarine's signature to a maritime surveillance aircraft worth it?
B. If not, was it unavoidable snorkeling, since the submarine was already on a course away (SW) from the Pakistani coast?

Some helpful third-party analysis:
https://in.reuters.com/article/uk-india-kashmir-pakistan-airstrike-insi-idINKCN1QN02Z
https://www.euspaceimaging.com/paki...ms-india-missed-target-in-pakistan-airstrike/
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/rest-of-world/2019/03/02/falcon-vs-bison-verifying-a-mig-21-wreck/

Very neutral and valid questions.
Hopefully this to a meaningful discussion and not the usual deafening noise.

 

[CriticalThought]

Good questions. Now I wish Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor surprises us with answers.

 

[Kaniska]

Brief summary:
On February 14th 2019, a suicide car-bombing attack on a Indian CRPF convoy left over 40 security personnel dead, for which the Pakistan-based JeM claimed responsibility. In the aftermath, on February 26th, the Government of India claimed that the Indian Air Force had carried out preemptive air-strikes against multiple terrorist camps inside Pakistan, around 0330hrs. While GoI declared the intended 'non-military' targets being destroyed and terrorists eliminated, the Pakistani Armed Forces denied any damages and claimed to have thwarted the strike. The following day around 1000hrs, the Pakistani Air Force carried out retaliatory strikes against multiple 'non-military' targets as a show-of-force, hitting inside compounds of Indian Army's forward military installations without causing any damages. The strike quickly evolved into a brawl involving up to 30 fighter aircrafts over the disputed territory of Kashmir, resulting in 1 MiG-21 Bison of the IAF being shot down over Pakistani territory, crashing roughly 5km across the Line of Control. The pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, was captured alive and subsequently released on March 1st.

PAF also claimed another kill, of an IAF Su-30MKI, while IAF claimed that their captured pilot had shot down a PAF F-16 before being shot down himself. Both claims remain unverified to this date as no crashed wreckage of either was publicly found, and both air forces maintain that no other aircrafts were lost. The entire episode involved a lot of drama and twisting of facts by both sides to justify their claims. The resulting 'fog of war' left many questions unanswered, as explained below:

1. Why did the IAF's 4x SPICE-2000 equipped 2000lbs bombs miss their target(s) at Balakot by 100-200m?
A. Is it possible that, despite the SPICE being an autonomous battle-tested SOW kit with a 3m CEP, harsh weather played its role? Consequently, did IAF unknowingly give GoI an inaccurate bomb damage assessment, trusting the weapon system? Did Mirage-2000s not have the IIR feed of the SPICE seekers, due to LoS because of terrain?
B. Or was this an intentional, shot-across-the-bow, meant to send a message to Pakistan? If yes, why did GoI claim a large number of terrorists being eliminated? Did GoI unnecessarily politicize the strike, hoping to kill two birds with one stone? Did GoI underestimate the national and international questioning of the validity of its claims?


2. Why was there no subsequent mention of the other two GoI-claimed targets at Muzaffarabad & Chakothi?
A. Did the Pakistani military cover up the strikes at those locations?
B. Or were there no strikes at those locations to begin with? Why wasn't there any immediate reporting of any such event, on both local news and social media?


3. Why was the retaliatory PAF strike package not intercepted inside Indian territory?
A. Did the IAF not have enough CAP units in the region, given the threat of imminent retaliation? Were they merely out of range? Were there no active SAMs in the region?
B. Or did PAF employ multiple divisive intrusion tactics in the same region, leading to IAF CAPs being distracted and outnumbered?


4. Why did Wing Commander Abhinandan went alone after PAF fighters in hot pursuit, given the proximity of LoC?
A. Did he violate RoEs and ignore the instructions given by his GCI to not proceed? If yes, is this a one-off case?
B. If he didn't, why didn't his wingman follow his suit? Why did the Su-30MKIs/Mirage-2000s fail to provide cover to the aircraft(s) going in hot pursuit?


5. Why didn't the IAF Su-30MKIs retaliate when PAF fighters launched BVRAAMs towards them?
A. Is this a simple case of the priority to execute evasive maneuvers and jamming?
B. Or did the Su-30MKIs not have a valid firing solution, given the RoEs and the rapid egression of PAF fighters?


6. Which 2-seater fighter aircraft went down in close-proximity to MiG-21, as dual ejections were seen by multiple eye-witnesses and in videos?
A. Was it a PAF aircraft (F-16B/D or Mirage-III) shot down in Pakistani territory by the MiG-21 Bison, as claimed by the IAF?
B. Or was it an IAF aircraft (Su-30MKI or Mirage-2000) shot down in the Indian territory, as claimed by PAF?


7. What was the identity of the additional injured pilot(s) in possession of Pakistan, as initially claimed by DG ISPR and PM Imran Khan?
A. If it was Pakistani, did GoP misidentify the pilot due to his possible severely injured state? If yes, why didn't the PAF communicate to DG ISPR and GoP that their pilot(s) also went down in the dogfight?
B. If it was Indian, did GoP brush the incident under the carpet due to the possible death of the IAF pilot?


8. Why did the IAF Mi-17 went down in the same time frame close to Badgam as the dogfight over LoC?
A. Was it a mere coincidence that despite Mi-17 being a robust aircraft, it suffered a technical failure following an explosion as reported by eyewitnesses?
B. Or considering the photos of a punched-out hole in the tail of the Mi-17, is it possible that it was a case of fratricide? If yes, was it shot down by a SAM from the Srinagar AFS or by an AAM from an IAF aircraft? If no, was it inadvertently shot down by the PAF, given it was less than 100km away from the area of engagement, within the ~100km range of an AIM-120-C5?


9. Why didn't the Indian Military retaliate to the PAF strike, given it struck in close proximity of IA's military installations?
A. Did GoI and the Indian Military call it a day and declared scores being settled, since no damage was done to IA's military installations?
B. Or did the Indian Military prepare to escalate with a retaliatory Air/Missile strike? If yes, why was it called off? Did the Indian public's emotions regarding the shot down pilot play a role? Did the International Community alone prevent India from doing so? Or did Pakistan's probable mobilization of nuclear weapons played its role?


10. Why did the Indian Submarine surface close to the Pakistani coast?
A. Was this on purpose, to demonstrate a show-of-force? If yes, is exposing a submarine's signature to a maritime surveillance aircraft worth it?
B. If not, was it unavoidable snorkeling, since the submarine was already on a course away (SW) from the Pakistani coast?

Some helpful third-party analysis:
https://in.reuters.com/article/uk-india-kashmir-pakistan-airstrike-insi-idINKCN1QN02Z
https://www.euspaceimaging.com/paki...ms-india-missed-target-in-pakistan-airstrike/
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/rest-of-world/2019/03/02/falcon-vs-bison-verifying-a-mig-21-wreck/

Thank you for initiating a rational analysis of this episode. Not sure if we have answer, we can have a guess to the situation and provide my thoughts.

Overall, i beleive, it is not definitely true that 300 people killed is correct...Personally i do not beleive it....But i beleive, that IAF definitely reached within a striking distance...

As a devil advocate to my own country, i can assume that either they messed up the operation or objective was to create a hype in media to kill so many people where as in reality, they simply crossed the target and bombed some unmanned areas and came back...I really doubt about GoI has a really intent to strike and kill 300 people inside your territory...Neither Pakistan is just another country nor India is USA...And also, i do not believe, that IAF really meant to kill those people and missed it...

So overall, i beleive, entire episode has some truth in it....Pakistan sensed clearly that in reality, they did not lose any life on ground...But their airspace has been breached and that a violation of your sovernity..But in return, you shot down a plane and caught a pilot...So the perception battle for India and Pakistan got even....

At the end of the day, it seems that everyone is happy here..GoI is happy that IAF crossed IB and pretended to bomb and killed some people in Pakistan...Pakistan is happy as you caught our pilot...

 

[SQ8]

Brief summary:
On February 14th 2019, a suicide car-bombing attack on a Indian CRPF convoy left over 40 security personnel dead, for which the Pakistan-based JeM claimed responsibility. In the aftermath, on February 26th, the Government of India claimed that the Indian Air Force had carried out preemptive air-strikes against multiple terrorist camps inside Pakistan, around 0330hrs. While GoI declared the intended 'non-military' targets being destroyed and terrorists eliminated, the Pakistani Armed Forces denied any damages and claimed to have thwarted the strike. The following day around 1000hrs, the Pakistani Air Force carried out retaliatory strikes against multiple 'non-military' targets as a show-of-force, hitting inside compounds of Indian Army's forward military installations without causing any damages. The strike quickly evolved into a brawl involving up to 30 fighter aircrafts over the disputed territory of Kashmir, resulting in 1 MiG-21 Bison of the IAF being shot down over Pakistani territory, crashing roughly 5km across the Line of Control. The pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, was captured alive and subsequently released on March 1st.

PAF also claimed another kill, of an IAF Su-30MKI, while IAF claimed that their captured pilot had shot down a PAF F-16 before being shot down himself. Both claims remain unverified to this date as no crashed wreckage of either was publicly found, and both air forces maintain that no other aircrafts were lost. The entire episode involved a lot of drama and twisting of facts by both sides to justify their claims. The resulting 'fog of war' left many questions unanswered, as explained below:

1. Why did the IAF's 4x SPICE-2000 equipped 2000lbs bombs miss their target(s) at Balakot by 100-200m?
A. Is it possible that, despite the SPICE being an autonomous battle-tested SOW kit with a 3m CEP, harsh weather played its role? Consequently, did IAF unknowingly give GoI an inaccurate bomb damage assessment, trusting the weapon system? Did Mirage-2000s not have the IIR feed of the SPICE seekers, due to LoS because of terrain?
B. Or was this an intentional, shot-across-the-bow, meant to send a message to Pakistan? If yes, why did GoI claim a large number of terrorists being eliminated? Did GoI unnecessarily politicize the strike, hoping to kill two birds with one stone? Did GoI underestimate the national and international questioning of the validity of its claims?


2. Why was there no subsequent mention of the other two GoI-claimed targets at Muzaffarabad & Chakothi?
A. Did the Pakistani military cover up the strikes at those locations?
B. Or were there no strikes at those locations to begin with? Why wasn't there any immediate reporting of any such event, on both local news and social media?


3. Why was the retaliatory PAF strike package not intercepted inside Indian territory?
A. Did the IAF not have enough CAP units in the region, given the threat of imminent retaliation? Were they merely out of range? Were there no active SAMs in the region?
B. Or did PAF employ multiple divisive intrusion tactics in the same region, leading to IAF CAPs being distracted and outnumbered?


4. Why did Wing Commander Abhinandan went alone after PAF fighters in hot pursuit, given the proximity of LoC?
A. Did he violate RoEs and ignore the instructions given by his GCI to not proceed? If yes, is this a one-off case?
B. If he didn't, why didn't his wingman follow his suit? Why did the Su-30MKIs/Mirage-2000s fail to provide cover to the aircraft(s) going in hot pursuit?


5. Why didn't the IAF Su-30MKIs retaliate when PAF fighters launched BVRAAMs towards them?
A. Is this a simple case of the priority to execute evasive maneuvers and jamming?
B. Or did the Su-30MKIs not have a valid firing solution, given the RoEs and the rapid egression of PAF fighters?


6. Which 2-seater fighter aircraft went down in close-proximity to MiG-21, as dual ejections were seen by multiple eye-witnesses and in videos?
A. Was it a PAF aircraft (F-16B/D or Mirage-III) shot down in Pakistani territory by the MiG-21 Bison, as claimed by the IAF?
B. Or was it an IAF aircraft (Su-30MKI or Mirage-2000) shot down in the Indian territory, as claimed by PAF?


7. What was the identity of the additional injured pilot(s) in possession of Pakistan, as initially claimed by DG ISPR and PM Imran Khan?
A. If it was Pakistani, did GoP misidentify the pilot due to his possible severely injured state? If yes, why didn't the PAF communicate to DG ISPR and GoP that their pilot(s) also went down in the dogfight?
B. If it was Indian, did GoP brush the incident under the carpet due to the possible death of the IAF pilot?


8. Why did the IAF Mi-17 went down in the same time frame close to Badgam as the dogfight over LoC?
A. Was it a mere coincidence that despite Mi-17 being a robust aircraft, it suffered a technical failure following an explosion as reported by eyewitnesses?
B. Or considering the photos of a punched-out hole in the tail of the Mi-17, is it possible that it was a case of fratricide? If yes, was it shot down by a SAM from the Srinagar AFS or by an AAM from an IAF aircraft? If no, was it inadvertently shot down by the PAF, given it was less than 100km away from the area of engagement, within the ~100km range of an AIM-120-C5?


9. Why didn't the Indian Military retaliate to the PAF strike, given it struck in close proximity of IA's military installations?
A. Did GoI and the Indian Military call it a day and declared scores being settled, since no damage was done to IA's military installations?
B. Or did the Indian Military prepare to escalate with a retaliatory Air/Missile strike? If yes, why was it called off? Did the Indian public's emotions regarding the shot down pilot play a role? Did the International Community alone prevent India from doing so? Or did Pakistan's probable mobilization of nuclear weapons played its role?


10. Why did the Indian Submarine surface close to the Pakistani coast?
A. Was this on purpose, to demonstrate a show-of-force? If yes, is exposing a submarine's signature to a maritime surveillance aircraft worth it?
B. If not, was it unavoidable snorkeling, since the submarine was already on a course away (SW) from the Pakistani coast?

Some helpful third-party analysis:
https://in.reuters.com/article/uk-india-kashmir-pakistan-airstrike-insi-idINKCN1QN02Z
https://www.euspaceimaging.com/paki...ms-india-missed-target-in-pakistan-airstrike/
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/rest-of-world/2019/03/02/falcon-vs-bison-verifying-a-mig-21-wreck/

My 25cents

1. Ideal world deployment of weapons rarely occurs. During GW1 , Allied aircraft were deploying LGBs and other guided weapons at speeds well beyond their designated employment window.

Moreover, some perusal of the statements on both sides and the target location(not really that deep into Pakistan) suggests that the spice was not launched at maximum range at all and instead the approach likely used terrain masking which probably suggests a lobbed profile for the Spice from a much shorter range. Given the IAF also has AEW likely had the strike package warned of interception incoming which could have caused weapon employment parameters to be exceeded or incorrect.

2. The statements regarding “false” strikes and diversions by the Indian side could also suggest actual strickes scrubbed due to PAF interceptions. A prepared GoI statement would not take it into account.

3. Intelligence failure on their end. They were lulled into a false sense of security by their NSA and diplomats that Pakistan would not dare make such a move.
The IAF had usual CAPs for typical LoC tensions and did not have resources or intel available on the PAF response.

4. Loss of situational awareness for both him and IAF GCI. PAF EW capacity was greately underestimated.

5. Evading a AIM-120 launched at maximum energy likely took up most of their efforts. Its extremely difficult to avoid a AIM-120C especially when your SA is compromised so badly.

6. All PAF assets will be available for viewing by Aviation journos once this episode ends. That will probably get confirmed by ISPR or one of these publications in due course.
It’s either a IAF asset that went down or perhaps sycamore like debris that was mistaken on the ground for chutes?
As a devils advocate, if it did go down then it would be a Mirage III from 15sq but the seemingly high morale with patches and celebrations suggests otherwise.

7. This points to either a IAF pilot or perhaps multiple reports from different sources on WC Abhinandan.

8. Likely a shoot down as debris suggests- we are only assuming the chopper was flying close to the ground when it could be a 1000 foot above ground level - I don’t think it was a AIM-120 mistaking a target but rather a PAF fighter mistaking the Heli for a fighter or firing anyway.

9. International community- shellshock

10. Regular patrol

 

[The Deterrent]

My 25cents

1. Ideal world deployment of weapons rarely occurs. During GW1 , Allied aircraft were deploying LGBs and other guided weapons at speeds well beyond their designated employment window.

Moreover, some perusal of the statements on both sides and the target location(not really that deep into Pakistan) suggests that the spice was not launched at maximum range at all and instead the approach likely used terrain masking which probably suggests a lobbed profile for the Spice from a much shorter range. Given the IAF also has AEW likely had the strike package warned of interception incoming which could have caused weapon employment parameters to be exceeded or incorrect.

2. The statements regarding “false” strikes and diversions by the Indian side could also suggest actual strickes scrubbed due to PAF interceptions. A prepared GoI statement would not take it into account.

3. Intelligence failure on their end. They were lulled into a false sense of security by their NSA and diplomats that Pakistan would not dare make such a move.
The IAF had usual CAPs for typical LoC tensions and did not have resources or intel available on the PAF response.

4. Loss of situational awareness for both him and IAF GCI. PAF EW capacity was greately underestimated.

5. Evading a AIM-120 launched at maximum energy likely took up most of their efforts. Its extremely difficult to avoid a AIM-120C especially when your SA is compromised so badly.

6. All PAF assets will be available for viewing by Aviation journos once this episode ends. That will probably get confirmed by ISPR or one of these publications in due course.
It’s either a IAF asset that went down or perhaps sycamore like debris that was mistaken on the ground for chutes?
As a devils advocate, if it did go down then it would be a Mirage III from 15sq but the seemingly high morale with patches and celebrations suggests otherwise.

7. This points to either a IAF pilot or perhaps multiple reports from different sources on WC Abhinandan.

8. Likely a shoot down as debris suggests- we are only assuming the chopper was flying close to the ground when it could be a 1000 foot above ground level - I don’t think it was a AIM-120 mistaking a target but rather a PAF fighter mistaking the Heli for a fighter or firing anyway.

9. International community- shellshock

10. Regular patrol

1. Possible, but SPICE has redundancies (GNSS/INS + IIR), and enough control surfaces to redirect itself. Also, ALL 4x SOWs OVERSHOT their targets, thats something not likely to happen.

2. Possible, however the FM statement came after a few hours of the strike. Enough time for them to amend it.

3. Possible, but according to IAF statement, PAF made technical and proper violations at at least 2x locations. That might have divided the airborne CAP units.

4. Thats interesting. Was PAF able to stay below the horizon and jam IAF's AEW, leading to Abhinandhan's GCI giving him a go-ahead?

5. Agreed.

6. My hunch is also now with a Mirage-III since it was the primary strike aircraft that day, but as you said, all the other indicators are saying otherwise. At the end of the day, we do have an additional confirmed kill of an unidentified dual-seater aircraft over the LoC, the wreckage of which hasn't been publicly found. Who did it belong to? We may never find out.

7. I doubt that both DG ISPR and PM Imran Khan were ill-informed. If they were, somebody should've clarified by now.

8. Yeah, it was most certainly a shoot-down, not claimed by anyone so far.

9. Something tells me that there was more to it than merely international pressure.

10. Possible.

 

[SQ8]

1. Possible, but SPICE has redundancies (GNSS/INS + IIR), and enough control surfaces to redirect itself. Also, ALL 4x SOWs OVERSHOT their targets, thats something not likely to happen.

2. Possible, however the FM statement came after a few hours of the strike. Enough time for them to amend it.

3. Possible, but according to IAF statement, PAF made technical and proper violations at at least 2x locations. That might have divided the airborne CAP units.

4. Thats interesting. Was PAF able to stay below the horizon and jam IAF's AEW, leading to Abhinandhan's GCI giving him a go-ahead?

5. Agreed.

6. My hunch is also now with a Mirage-III since it was the primary strike aircraft that day, but as you said, all the other indicators are saying otherwise. At the end of the day, we do have an additional confirmed kill of an unidentified dual-seater aircraft over the LoC, the wreckage of which hasn't been publicly found. Who did it belong to? We may never find out.

7. I doubt that both DG ISPR and PM Imran Khan were ill-informed. If they were, somebody should've clarified by now.

8. Yeah, it was most certainly a shoot-down, not claimed by anyone so far.

9. Something tells me that there was more to it than merely international pressure.

10. Possible.

1. Which is where I am focusing on this being an operator error of releasing weapons post-haste and bugging out. Moreover, the amount of damage tells me that not everyone got their weapons deployed.

2. Could be a Baghdad Bob situation on their end or just miscommunication. Perhaps the IAF conveyed the results back incorrectly or simply the politcians wanted to gloat. No logical explanation otherwise for those two purported strikes.

3. Likely, we had our basic CAP up and despite the short distances between our bases and the border, multiple violations could have divided 6-8 jets disproportionately.

4. I am basing it on tactics the USAF is looking to employ with its elements for sweeps where it blasts through low level with BVR assets - shoots and turns. Our reliance on the DA20 is still an issue but they do reportedly have some new very capable equipment.
So it’s possible they were able to create issues either with AEW or datalink(I know the one for the M2K and MKI is pretty robust so I’m assuming the bison doesn’t have it).

6. Hopefully it comes out eventually in places like AFM or someone trusted on both sides of the enthusiast community.

7. Some statements were changed - which is ok for both sides since its a fog of war and kills/ pilots have been clamied by both sides in the past in error. Today’s HUD Cams make verifying WVR kills easy but BVR is much more difficult unless someone sees an explosion(seen at greater ranges than a target).

9. Cautionary measures?

 

[The Deterrent]

1. Which is where I am focusing on this being an operator error of releasing weapons post-haste and bugging out. Moreover, the amount of damage tells me that not everyone got their weapons deployed.

2. Could be a Baghdad Bob situation on their end or just miscommunication. Perhaps the IAF conveyed the results back incorrectly or simply the politcians wanted to gloat. No logical explanation otherwise for those two purported strikes.

3. Likely, we had our basic CAP up and despite the short distances between our bases and the border, multiple violations could have divided 6-8 jets disproportionately.

4. I am basing it on tactics the USAF is looking to employ with its elements for sweeps where it blasts through low level with BVR assets - shoots and turns. Our reliance on the DA20 is still an issue but they do reportedly have some new very capable equipment.
So it’s possible they were able to create issues either with AEW or datalink(I know the one for the M2K and MKI is pretty robust so I’m assuming the bison doesn’t have it).

6. Hopefully it comes out eventually in places like AFM or someone trusted on both sides of the enthusiast community.

7. Some statements were changed - which is ok for both sides since its a fog of war and kills/ pilots have been clamied by both sides in the past in error. Today’s HUD Cams make verifying WVR kills easy but BVR is much more difficult unless someone sees an explosion(seen at greater ranges than a target).

9. Cautionary measures?

1. Theoretically true, but if you go through DG ISPR's narrative of IAF doing 2x technical violations before moving in over Muzaffarabad to penetrate only 5-6km, it seems like IAF had enough time to deploy the weapons and bug out. The probability of all autonomous weapons (having 3m CEP) missing their targets by only 100-200 is too low, which is my I'm leaning towards the theory that this was a shot across the bow.

4. Considering IAF tactics during Cope India (MiG-21s flying blind with GCI/Su-30 datalinks), is it also likely that the DA20 jammed the Bison's datalink and he was flying completely in the blind closing in over LoC...got locked the moment he turned on his radar and promptly shot down?

6. I wouldn't count on it, whoever is hiding the plane would go to any length to keep its narrative.

7. I would get it if it was a preliminary statement by a low-level military representative. But DG-ISPR and PM Imran Khan should have verified information, it doesn't seems like it was an error considering the rapid communication we have today.

9. Visible measures. At the moment, Pakistan does not possess a calibrated, survivable proportionate response to a conventional BrahMos strike. Pakistan needs a precision guided hypersonic TBM.

 

[SQ8]

1. Theoretically true, but if you go through DG ISPR's narrative of IAF doing 2x technical violations before moving in over Muzaffarabad to penetrate only 5-6km, it seems like IAF had enough time to deploy the weapons and bug out. The probability of all autonomous weapons (having 3m CEP) missing their targets by only 100-200 is too low, which is my I'm leaning towards the theory that this was a shot across the bow.

4. Considering IAF tactics during Cope India (MiG-21s flying blind with GCI/Su-30 datalinks), is it also likely that the DA20 jammed the Bison's datalink and he was flying completely in the blind closing in over LoC...got locked the moment he turned on his radar and promptly shot down?

6. I wouldn't count on it, whoever is hiding the plane would go to any length to keep its narrative.

7. I would get it if it was a preliminary statement by a low-level military representative. But DG-ISPR and PM Imran Khan should have verified information, it doesn't seems like it was an error considering the rapid communication we have today.

9. Visible measures. At the moment, Pakistan does not possess a calibrated, survivable proportionate response to a conventional BrahMos strike. Pakistan needs a precision guided hypersonic TBM.

Which is why I am repeating the mantra of celebrating too much. This was likely not the best IAF could have done(out of complacency due to their own maliaised national thought process since this government and self-aggrandizement mentality came in a few years ago).

A coordinated Brahmos strike would have a shock and awe affect on us for which we are unprepared.

 

[deckingraj]

Which is why I am repeating the mantra of celebrating too much. This was likely not the best IAF could have done(out of complacency due to their own maliaised national thought process since this government and self-aggrandizement mentality came in a few years ago).

A coordinated Brahmos strike would have a shock and awe affect on us for which we are unprepared.

Very dangerous and can be very escalatory...however this is one aspect that can't be ruled out, should there is another terror attack...from an Indian point of view, no matter who is in power...another big terror attack and sitting PM should either resign for good or else give a nod...dangerous times ahead

Thank you for initiating a rational analysis of this episode. Not sure if we have answer, we can have a guess to the situation and provide my thoughts.

Overall, i beleive, it is not definitely true that 300 people killed is correct...Personally i do not beleive it....But i beleive, that IAF definitely reached within a striking distance...

As a devil advocate to my own country, i can assume that either they messed up the operation or objective was to create a hype in media to kill so many people where as in reality, they simply crossed the target and bombed some unmanned areas and came back...I really doubt about GoI has a really intent to strike and kill 300 people inside your territory...Neither Pakistan is just another country nor India is USA...And also, i do not believe, that IAF really meant to kill those people and missed it...

So overall, i beleive, entire episode has some truth in it....Pakistan sensed clearly that in reality, they did not lose any life on ground...But their airspace has been breached and that a violation of your sovernity..But in return, you shot down a plane and caught a pilot...So the perception battle for India and Pakistan got even....

At the end of the day, it seems that everyone is happy here..GoI is happy that IAF crossed IB and pretended to bomb and killed some people in Pakistan...Pakistan is happy as you caught our pilot...

So many issues with your bold part...first of all...for some reason we believe that casualty is a bigger issue in using air power...no it is simply not...bigger issue is breaching air space...if something hasn't happened for last 48 years then it has to be a big deal no?? We kill(sorry for sounding cold) more people and cause much more damage to infra, on daily basis simply by rockets all along LOC and sometimes even IB....What you think is bigger issue for India or Pakistan? Killing people/damage to Infra or breaching air space and doing nothing? Secondly, anyone in his right mind would know that PAF was pretty much on high alert...which means, an operation for mere photo shop moment, had all the dangers. So risking your fighters, pilots with purpose of killing trees is absolute nonsense...and pretty much saying that our forces are now politically inclined, which to me is even bigger nonsense...now if you are with me so far, then logic pretty much says, neither PAF came in for "sending a message" nor did IAF. If Balakot speciality was indeed a terrorist camp, then SPICE 2000 bombs have indeed been fired, penetrated their target and did what it is supposed to. If anyone was inside then there is nothing left, if no one was inside then our intelligence has to start from scratch...however believing that any Airforce will risk million dollar machines and men, just to send a message, especially when other side is on high alert is absolute crap.

@Pakistani Friends
It might have been answered somewhere however initial reports came in that two Indian pilots were in Pakistan custody and one in hospital, later they changed it to only 1 pilot(Abhinandan)..has there been any explanation as to why/how this goof up happened?

 

[The Deterrent]

Which is why I am repeating the mantra of celebrating too much. This was likely not the best IAF could have done(out of complacency due to their own maliaised national thought process since this government and self-aggrandizement mentality came in a few years ago).

A coordinated Brahmos strike would have a shock and awe affect on us for which we are unprepared.

Exactly. There are all indications that India is preparing itself for a comprehensive counter-force strike, not only dependent on BrahMos. Indian SFC now operates more than 15x hardened tunneled storage facilities, some of them combining launch capability within themselves. Also IAF is building extremely survivable HASs (approx 4m thick layering of RC & metal) in all forward airbases, which only a direct nuclear hit can take out.

Whether their calculations are correct or not, is up to us. In any case, these developments can quickly lead to a use-it-or-lose-it scenario in case of an attempted CF strike.

 

[SrNair]

Which is why I am repeating the mantra of celebrating too much. This was likely not the best IAF could have done(out of complacency due to their own maliaised national thought process since this government and self-aggrandizement mentality came in a few years ago).

A coordinated Brahmos strike would have a shock and awe affect on us for which we are unprepared.

Brahmos is too much problem.
Avoid the civilian and military casualities was the first priority ,because we knows if anything like that happens we will lost our case and things will out of control.

Brahmos strike will create civilian casualities ,collateral damage .

On the topic : 4A point is probably valid ,Because we had at least two Mig 21 and this commander probably violated the rules of engagement .
Sukhoi could have come back after spoofing AIM but it will be risk inside of Pak territory .
Everyone knows there will be a counter attack from Pakistan because public was angry.

It is possible we were controlling the events ,we could have field Akaash SAM in that region but will provoke Pakistan for miadventure .

 

[SQ8]

Brahmos is too much problem.
Avoid the civilian and military casualities was the first priority ,because we knows if anything like that happens we will lost our case and things will out of control.

Brahmos strike will create civilian casualities ,collateral damage .

On the topic : 4A point is probably valid ,Because we had at least two Mig 21 and this commander probably violated the rules of engagement .
Sukhoi could have come back after spoofing AIM but it will be risk inside of Pak territory .
Everyone knows there will be a counter attack from Pakistan because public was angry.

It is possible we were controlling the events ,we could have field Akaash SAM in that region but will provoke Pakistan for miadventure .

Im more and more convinced this was an intel failure on Indian NSA specifically Doval otherwise the IAF would not have been caught with its guard down. What surprises me is that like our side IAF command recieves thick dossiers on intel on us and yet only put up the standard response?

Very dangerous and can be very escalatory...however this is one aspect that can't be ruled out, should there is another terror attack...from an Indian point of view, no matter who is in power...another big terror attack and sitting PM should either resign for good or else give a nod...dangerous times ahead



So many issues with your bold part...first of all...for some reason we believe that casualty is a bigger issue in using air power...no it is simply not...bigger issue is breaching air space...if something hasn't happened for last 48 years then it has to be a big deal no?? We kill(sorry for sounding cold) more people and cause much more damage to infra, on daily basis simply by rockets all along LOC and sometimes even IB....What you think is bigger issue for India or Pakistan? Killing people/damage to Infra or breaching air space and doing nothing? Secondly, anyone in his right mind would know that PAF was pretty much on high alert...which means, an operation for mere photo shop moment, had all the dangers. So risking your fighters, pilots with purpose of killing trees is absolute nonsense...and pretty much saying that our forces are now politically inclined, which to me is even bigger nonsense...now if you are with me so far, then logic pretty much says, neither PAF came in for "sending a message" nor did IAF. If Balakot speciality was indeed a terrorist camp, then SPICE 2000 bombs have indeed been fired, penetrated their target and did what it is supposed to. If anyone was inside then there is nothing left, if no one was inside then our intelligence has to start from scratch...however believing that any Airforce will risk million dollar machines and men, just to send a message, especially when other side is on high alert is absolute crap.

@Pakistani Friends
It might have been answered somewhere however initial reports came in that two Indian pilots were in Pakistan custody and one in hospital, later they changed it to only 1 pilot(Abhinandan)..has there been any explanation as to why/how this goof up happened?

Regarding the last para, perhaps multiple people citing the same event?
Debris being mistaken and then reports of Abhinandan coming from different quarters could have caused the confusion.

I am quite convinced of no F-16 loss due to a close personal connection(almost as if my own brother was flying that day) but whether a PAF loss occured or 2nd IAF loss is confirmed is really upto some serious investigave journalism.

Even AFM has done a piecemeal job of reporting losses on both sides based on media and less on official accounts.

 

[Amavous]

Asalam - O - Alikum
One can say this time it was a "controlled conflict". Will it be the same in future i think not. Both sides used air-force & SOWs and thats that. it is not much of use to discuss all these what if scenarios now.

We have to remember that in Pak-India scenario escalation ladder can only go upwards as public pressure/embarrassment shapes the military strategy/response.

By the way any senior member has any reliable info about the LOC operation by land forces ?? especially on the night of 27th and 28th Feb. Rumor mills have churned out a lot of crap on internet about that.

Allah Hafiz
------------