Feb’22 exports $ 2.81bn, up +36% YoY

[Muhammad Saftain Anjum]

Last FY 2020-21 BD exports of goods and services were $45b. This FY BD exports will be $55b. But remmitances are down quite a bit, $20b. Overall BD this FY 2021-22 inflows $75b.

Pakistan this FY 2021-22 $40b exports and $30b remittances. So around $70b.

I was speculating 75 Billion USD inflow for FY 2022-23

 

[ziaulislam]

Bro i am worried because Imran Khan's visit to Russia has triggered Americans and West.I think this will create hindrance in our economic growth.USA is thinking that Pakistan has opted to side with Russia and China and now they will create problems for us.

Imran Khan's stupid move will surely cost us huge price.
Nonetheless;

32 Billion remittances+ 8 Billion USD services exports+35 Billion USD goods exports=75 Billion USD earning

This should be the target .

Let's compare it with Bangladesh's last year earning:
22 Billion USD remittances+ 7 Billion services exports+50 Billion goods exports=77 Billion USD earning
(This is my approximate guess based on google searches)

With little more efforts,we can reach Bangladesh's last year level earning.

No body in west cares
We over blow these things
As along as we keep afgahnistan stable things should be good

 

[Pakstallion]

If Oil prices were even sort of normal (60-70) would be running current account surpluses and rupee would be under pressure of being too strong.

 

[ziaulislam]

If Oil prices were even sort of normal (60-70) would be running current account surpluses and rupee would be under pressure of being too strong.

Anything above 70 is unsustainable

The prices will drop soon

Espwcially once ukraine deal is done and iran iraq and libya start pumping oil

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Core inflation which is number used more often around the world was at 8.5% not 12.5%

View attachment 820088

So when u see numbera thrown in dawn or tribune they always compare western/regional core inflation(around 8% in pakistan, 8% in america ) with our consumer inflation index(12% in pakistan, around 11% in america)

This in turn make it seem like inflation isworse in pakistan when the differnce infact isnt big

So you're implying that Pakistani interest rate of 9.75% in January 2022 is incorrect?

SBP maintains status quo in interest rate at 9.75% | The Express Tribune

Decision against market expectations which projected increase in rate

tribune.com.pk

 

[ziaulislam]

So you're implying that Pakistani interest rate of 9.75% in January 2022 is incorrect?

SBP maintains status quo in interest rate at 9.75% | The Express Tribune

Decision against market expectations which projected increase in rate

tribune.com.pk

Sir no you are right

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

... How are the imports faring? is the deficit narrowing?

So far, like this.

Fin. Year	Total Trade	Exports (billions)	Imports (billions)	Trade Balance
2018-2019	$77.66	$22.96	$54.70	-$31.74
2019-2020	$65.94	$21.39	$44.55	-$23.16
2020-2021	$87.63	$31.30	$56.33	-$25.03
2022-2022	$64.14	$17.67	$46.47	-$28.80

(Financial Year 2021-2022: Data is for first 7 months only).

 

[ziaulislam]

So far, like this.

Fin. Year	Total Trade	Exports (billions)	Imports (billions)	Trade Balance
2018-2019	$77.66	$22.96	$54.70	-$31.74
2019-2020	$65.94	$21.39	$44.55	-$23.16
2020-2021	$87.63	$31.30	$56.33	-$25.03
2022-2022	$64.14	$17.67	$46.47	-$28.80

(Financial Year 2021-2022: Data is for first 7 months only).

More less the same..meaning govt is able to keep same balanve despite high growth rate of 5+% this is good news..that too in very high oil price situation(100+$)

With remittences growing fast seems govt may weather this episode of boom without a burst..but it will be close call..

If oil drops to 60s then it should be pretty easy to keep CAD managble

Last 2 yesrsof exports are going to be 32b$, 34-36b$

From 21b$ in 2018
Big jump

Services and remittences have even grown faster(they are easier to turn around faster vs building a factory)

 

[Flight of falcon]

More less the same..meaning govt is able to keep same balanve despite high growth rate of 5+% this is good news..that too in very high oil price situation(100+$)

With remittences growing fast seems govt may weather this episode of boom without a burst..but it will be close call..

If oil drops to 60s then it should be pretty easy to keep CAD managble

Last 2 yesrsof exports are going to be 32b$, 34-36b$

From 21b$ in 2018
Big jump

Services and remittences have even grown faster(they are easier to turn around faster vs building a factory)

Mian sanp laid the foundation of this growth and Bilawal 100 paid man convoy to Islamabad is the real reason for this .

 

[Pakstallion]

Pakistan is on the cusp of greatness inshallah. Many policy benefits will start showing up in another 3-4 years. Dams producing electricity. Import substitution of cooking oil by local olive oil etc. More factories being setup. I would be more optimistic even if PML N or PPP win if we had an unbiased media to push them to do the right thing. But hopefully they have the sense that this free market exchange rate although painful with short term inflation leads to export based growth such that even if your imports increase with GDP going up Exports also go up. Hard won gains.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

More less the same..meaning govt is able to keep same balanve despite high growth rate of 5+% this is good news..that too in very high oil price situation(100+$)

With remittences growing fast seems govt may weather this episode of boom without a burst..but it will be close call..

If oil drops to 60s then it should be pretty easy to keep CAD managble

Last 2 yesrsof exports are going to be 32b$, 34-36b$

From 21b$ in 2018
Big jump

Services and remittences have even grown faster(they are easier to turn around faster vs building a factory)

That's quite optimistic.

I don't think oil prices are coming down any time soon with the intensity of war in Ukraine increasing daily.

If the price of oil is more than $100 today, then it's effect will be properly felt in 3 months time i.e. inflation will sky rocket.

CAD is expected to touch around $16-17 billion this fiscal year and Trade Deficit is expected to touch around $40 billion.

Remittances slowed down in January 2022 surprisingly.

And, fresh data has just been released showing Trade Deficit has climbed by $4 billion to $32 billion in the first 8 months of this fiscal.

Fin. Year	Total Trade	Exports (billions)	Imports (billions)	Trade Balance
2018-2019	$77.66	$22.96	$54.70	-$31.74
2019-2020	$65.94	$21.39	$44.55	-$23.16
2020-2021	$87.63	$31.30	$56.33	-$25.03
2021-2022	$73.05	$20.55	$52.50	-$31.95

(Updated: Financial Year 2021-2022: Data is for first 8 months only).

 

[MelloryOlephanto]

How long before this new tax amnesty being offered to industrialists starts reflecting on our balance of payments? assuming it works at all that is. Ironically, for wide scale industrialisation to happen, the current account has to go red (imports of machinery, plants and what not) before it inches closer to green, a good example for this is the Temporary Economic Refinance Facility (TERF) and the part it has played in the imports account for the last two years. So does this mean imports might start picking up even further than they have?

 

[S.Y.A]

How long before this new tax amnesty being offered to industrialists starts reflecting on our balance of payments? assuming it works at all that is. Ironically, for wide scale industrialisation to happen, the current account has to go red (imports of machinery, plants and what not) before it inches closer to green, a good example for this is the Temporary Economic Refinance Facility (TERF) and the part it has played in the imports account for the last two years. So does this mean imports might start picking up even further than they have?

or they can make machinery in pakistan. pmtf can help in this regard.

 

[bafxet]

I hope we break $3B soon.

3 billion is good but but I think import substitution will do the trick

 

[Bilal.]

3 billion is good but but I think import substitution will do the trick

Both need to happen hand in hand.