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Facing more assertive Chinese military, USA & Japan push back in the Pacific

Lankan Ranger

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Facing more assertive Chinese military, USA & Japan push back in the Pacific

Here's the scenario: A southern Japanese island is under attack and American forces are coming to the rescue.

The potential enemy isn't identified on the maps flashing across computer screens, but the elephant in the room is obvious: It's "the big country to the west," says one U.S. military official.
China.

In keeping with the adage of hoping for the best while preparing for the worst, the U.S. and its Asian allies are boosting their defences, even after American and Chinese leaders talked up the need for closer ties in two high-profile visits this month.

In Washington, Chinese leader Hu Jintao received a pomp-filled welcome usually reserved for close allies. Just before, U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates was given similar treatment in Beijing, even getting a look inside China's nuclear warfare headquarters.

But largely outside public view, jockeying between the U.S. and China for strategic advantage in the Pacific is intensifying.

The U.S. has long been the dominant military power in the region, protecting Japan, South Korea and Taiwan and keeping vital shipping lanes open for trade. China is now emerging as a rival, sending its ships farther out to sea as its military strength grows.

An unusual flurry of activity in the past two months reflects the concern over China's rise:

— As Gates began his tour, an American aircraft carrier, the USS Carl Vinson, and its battle group were taking part in exercises in the East China Sea, where a diplomatic skirmish broke out last fall between Tokyo and Beijing over contested islands.

— The exercises followed a major joint operation with Japan in December — with the USS George Washington carrier group and an amphibious assault ship — to simulate reclaiming a southwestern island and bottling up the Chinese navy.

— As Hu concluded his trip, Japan and the U.S. began the ongoing "Yama Sakura" exercises, a mock-up deployment to repel a full-scale invasion of Kyushu, the southernmost of Japan's four main islands. They end Feb. 3.

U.S. military officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, confirmed the general outlines of the two naval exercises.

The training serves two purposes, said Toshi Yoshihara, an associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island. "First, it makes sense for the alliance to send a deterrent signal to China. Second, it is prudent for Washington to reassure Tokyo."

American officials studiously avoid calling China a threat and stress the importance of the recent political overtures. They say the Kyushu exercises are not directed at any particular adversary.

"It's like a football scrimmage," Lt. Gen. Benjamin Mixon, the commander of the U.S. Army in the Pacific, said at the headquarters for the Kyushu exercises. "Somebody's got to wear the red shirts."

But Aurelia George Mulgan, a Japan specialist at the Australian Defence Force Academy at the University of New South Wales, said the recent U.S-Japan activity "smacks of a new containment policy."

"It was designed to send a strong message to China that China, and particularly its military, are not going to have it all their own way in this region, and that the more aggressive they get, the stronger the response from Japan and the U.S.," she said.

China says it's not a threat, but its diplomatic and military stance has became increasingly muscular, most notably at sea. It is developing a stealth fighter jet and an advanced missile that could hold an aircraft carrier battle group at bay. It also hopes to deploy its first aircraft carriers over the next decade.

Its naval vessels are venturing more frequently into sea lanes around southern Japan. A flotilla of 10 warships, including advanced submarines and destroyers, passed through the Miyako Strait last April in the biggest transit of its kind to date. Experts saw it as an attempt by China to test Japan and demonstrate its open water capabilities.

Japan has said it will boost its monitoring of Chinese forces and increase its submarine fleet. It is also deepening defence ties with not only the United States but also South Korea, Australia and India.

With its swelling trade, China is understandably concerned that it needs to protect its shipping lanes, said Eric Wertheim, editor of the Annapolis, Maryland-based U.S. Naval Institute's Guide to Combat Fleets of the World.

But he also expressed worries about the Chinese military's thinking.

"The Chinese military appears insecure and has a bit of an inferiority complex right now. China appears to have the strong perception that they have been bullied in the past and now that they are strong they can finally get their payback," he said in an email. "Many in China seem very ready to pick fights over perceived slights."

The Canadian Press: Facing more assertive China military, US and Japan push back in the Pacific
 

"The Chinese military appears insecure and has a bit of an inferiority complex right now. China appears to have the strong perception that they have been bullied in the past and now that they are strong they can finally get their payback," he said in an email. "Many in China seem very ready to pick fights over perceived slights."


They're wrong because that's not China's personality.

As shown repeatedly in the past, China, instead of "payback", will curl itself away further.

After 200 years of war, China does not want a single conflict again. China does not want to relive its past.
 
One, there is no reason for China to attack japan militarily. Japan pose no threat to China. All China need to do is to attack their economy, resources and politicians where they are most fragile right now.

Two, America may be aggressive, but the kitty cat can be tamed because it is very hungry right now and it knows it will only get fed if she behaves. By biting the hands of the one who feeds it will do it no favours.
 
No need for words. Just go about our business, China holds the trump cards right now.

They know there's no stopping China right now. 天時地理人和 and China has them all.
 
One, there is no reason for China to attack japan militarily. Japan pose no threat to China. All China need to do is to attack their economy, resources and politicians where they are most fragile right now.

Two, America may be aggressive, but the kitty cat can be tamed because it is very hungry right now and it knows it will only get fed if she behaves. By biting the hands of the one who feeds it will do it no favours.

Very true. Now the real enemy of Japan is their waning economy, their aging population and their stubborn anti-foreigner xenophobic attitudes. China on the other hand is progressive with a growing economy compared to Japan's stagnant economy.:china:
 
Japan is as broke as the US and perhaps even dumber.

FT.com / Comment / Opinion - The Japanese debt disaster movie

The Japanese debt disaster movie

By Peter Tasker

Published: January 27 2011 12:27 | Last updated: January 27 2011 12:27

Standard & Poor’s downgrade of Japan’s credit rating raises a disturbing prospect. Is this stage two of the global credit crisis, featuring a chain of sovereign defaults among the largest economies?

No less a figure than Kaoru Yosano, Japan’s new minister for economic and fiscal affairs, seems to think so. “We face a dreadful dream,” he told the Financial

After the disasters of 2008, such fears are understandable, but misguided. The risk is they lead to policies that, far from solving the world’s economic problems, make them a whole lot worse.

The case for the prosecution is simple. Japan’s ratio of government debt to gross domestic product is above 100 per cent and shows no sign of declining. The political system seems gridlocked, with a succession of uninspiring leaders coming and going with bewildering rapidity.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/29/business/global/29yen.html

Japanese Leader Creates Stir With Remark on Debt Rating
By HIROKO TABUCHI
Published: January 28, 2011


TOKYO — Prime Minister Naoto Kan of Japan may have a lot of explaining to do this weekend at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, not least of all being what he meant when he told reporters he was “ignorant” in matters concerning Japan’s freshly downgraded debt rating.

Mr. Kan then added to the image of a hapless government by telling reporters after S.& P.’s announcement that he was “utoi” on the matter, a word translated as “ignorant” or “unfamiliar.” His remarks prompted derision in the Japanese news media and among political opponents.

***
Heaven conspiring for Zhongguo to be zhong again.
 
For thousands of years, whenever the northen normads had famine due to their grasslands dried out, they attacked the Chinese dynasties in the south because they need food and land for their livestocks.

Before Hitler took power, Germany was having sever economic downturns, and Hitler turned the people's desperation into nationalism and started World War 2.

If US and Japan's economy is not improving, China need to be very alert on the moves taken by them. Already they have blamed China for most of their problems. The anti-China sentiment can be easily flamed as seen during the pre-2008 Olympic touch relays.

It is very common for governments to draw people's attention away from their domestic problems, by going to wars and conflicts with other nations, and regain support of their people through rising nationalism.
 
They will force China into a two-front war over either Korean peninsula, Diaoyutai or Taiwan independence. If the Chinese leadership fails to appreciate the threat India has become, China could possibly lose a two-front war!

Looking at Indian government actions against pro-China Tibetan exiles, we are in the same situation at 1959 at least. Last time, it took Beijing more than a year to ready for a war against India. This time, I expect we will need to finish building those airbases in Tibet and then we can commence northern India bombardment.
 

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