Is that a fact, Mr. Armchair General?
U.S. Reactions and Countermeasures
The U.S. military has been aware of Chinese ASBM development for years now, and has monitored it closely. The Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) first discussed Chinese interest in ASBM development publicly in 2004; the Department of Defense in 2005. A 2006 unclassified assessment by ONI stated that China is equipping theater ballistic missiles [TBMs] with maneuvering reentry vehicles (MaRVs) with radar or IR [infrared] seekers to provide the accuracy necessary to attack a ship at sea. Anyone with government experience knows that such disclosures likely represented the culmination of lengthy bureaucratic processes.
The U.S. military has undoubtedly used this long lead time to develop a variety of countermeasures. On 8 January 2011, en route to Beijing for a four-day official visit, Defense Secretary Robert Gates responded to a reporters questions about Chinese development of ASBMs and related capabilities by stating: weve been watching these developments all along. Ive been concerned about the development of the anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles ever since I took this job in 2007. They clearly have the potential to put some of our capabilities at risk and we have to pay attention to them, we have to respond appropriately with our own programs. In fact, Secretary Gates elaborated, some of [DoDs] higher priority areas for investment are focused on some of these anti-access programs. He added: My hope is that through the strategic dialogue that Im talking about that maybe the need for some of these capabilities is reduced.
In a media interview last year, Adm. Patrick Walsh, Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet, likewise suggested a measured but proactive U.S. response: When we look at these sorts of developments, such as the ASBM, they are technological developments that we respect, but do not necessarily fear. The key element in any sort of deterrent strategy is to make it clear to those who would use a given piece of technology that we have the means to counter it, and to maintain a technological edge.
A mid-February 2011 statement by the commander of the U.S. 7th Fleet indicates that the U.S. Navy is taking a proactive, measured approach to Chinese ASBM development. Its not the Achilles heel of our aircraft carriers or our Navyit is one weapons system, one technology that is out there, Vice Adm. Scott van Buskirk declared in a interview on the bridge of the USS George Washington, the only American carrier home-ported in the western Pacific, while it was in its home port of Yokosuka, Japan for maintenance. Any new capability is something that we try to monitor, VADM van Buskirk added, stating that the DF-21Ds capabilities remain unproven. If there wasnt this to point to as a game changer, there would be something else. That term has been bandied about for many things. I think it really depends in how you define the game, whether it really changes it or not. Its a very specific scenario for a very specific capabilitysome things can be very impactful. Van Buskirk emphasized that the U.S. Navy will continue to operate in the seas around Japan, Korea, the Philippines and anywhere else it deems necessary. We wont change these operations because of this specific technology that might be out there. But we will carefully monitor and adapt to it. Van Buskirk suggested how Beijing might allay concerns the region about its military developments: It goes back to transparency. Using the United States as an example, we are very clear about our intent when conducting routine and normal operations in international waters
That is what you might expect from other nations that might operate in this region.
This is a broad-based, long-term challenge, and hence the U.S. military has been developing, and will continue to develop, an appropriate set of responses. The long-anticipated development of Chinas ASBM reaching the equivalent of IOC is merely the sharpening tip of a much larger spear of Chinese anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities that China is developing to hold at risk key U.S. military platforms, particularly aircraft carrier strike groups (CSGs).
But U.S. ships will not offer a fixed target for such asymmetric weapons, including Chinese ASBMs. U.S. military planning documents, including the February 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR)the Pentagons guiding strategy documentclearly recognize Chinas growing A2/AD challenge; the QDR charges the U.S. military with multiple initiatives to address it. For example, the Air Force and Navy are pursuing AirSea Battle, a new operational concept designed to preserve U.S. power-projection capabilities in an era of increasing aerospace-maritime battlespace fusion, jointness, tightening budgets, and Chinese and Iranian A2/AD capabilities.
In a world where U.S. naval assets will often be safest underwater and in more dispersed networks, President Obamas defense budget supports building two submarines a year and investing in a new ballistic-missile submarine, as well as a variety of missile defense systems. The U.S. Navy has moved some of its most capable submarines and ballistic missile defense (BMD)-capable Aegis cruisers and destroyers to the Pacific. In what is likely one of the first of many difficult decisions about how to prioritize significant but not unlimited resources, it has proposed to halt procurement of Zumwalt (DDG-1000)-class destroyers and resume procurement of Arleigh Burke (DDG-51)-class Aegis destroyers. How best to develop and implement ASBM countermeasures is being debated vigorously in U.S. Navy circles.
When asked in December 2010 if U.S. power projection capability were deteriorating because of Chinas A2/AD capability, Admiral Robert Willard, Commander, U.S. Pacific Command, replied: No, I dont think so. Certainly, this kind of capability should be a concern to the region, and it poses a challenge to any naval or air operations that would be conducted in that area were it to be employed. Is it affecting my operations today? Not at all. Were it to pose a challenge to the United States, Im confident that I have the capability to operate in that air space and water space.
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