Experts predict PTI will win next elections?

[Chakar The Great]

In an interview with Kamran Shahid on Off the Record, leading Pakistani journalist Mazhar Abbas thinks PTI will win the next elections. He also said it is highly unlikely that PPP or PML-N will come into power.

During the show, Kamran Shahid played Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s recent clip on PPP. He leveled heavy accusations against PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto.

Maulana Fazlur Rehman lashed out at Bilawal Bhutto and accused him of playing into the hands of the Establishment. As a result, he destroyed the PDM’s mission.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1436544442865913859

“Bilawal bracketed himself with the federal government and the establishment. The option of (en-mass) resignations was a part of the PDM manifesto. Had the PPP leadership agreed to the PDM decision, the federal government would have fallen. Also, elections would have been held by now,” he said while commenting over the failure of the PDM to topple the federal government.

Read more: PDM to expel PPP and ANP from Opposition alliance?

Fazl did not stop and here and went on to accuse the PPP chairman further.

“The offer made to Bilawal was also made to us but Bilawal accepted the offer and we rejected that offer,” he said apparently referring to the backchannel contacts with the establishment.


On this note, anchorperson Kamran Shahid said if that is the case, then there is no point for Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) as the election appears to be rigged.

However, MNA Farrukh Habib, also present, said there is no credibility to Maulana Fazl Rehman’s words since he favors only the ruling party.

Moreover, in response to Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s latest comments on PPP allegedly striking a deal with the Establishment, Mazhar Abbas predicted that PTI will again win the elections of 2023.

Read more: PTI hits back at PML-N’s claims of ruining Pakistan’s economy




Opposition to see its downfall?

As per Mazhar Abbas, the Opposition is floundering. With the way it is doing politics, PTI will soon see victory. Moreover, he highlighted that PML-N is more confused than PPP. He said PML-N is neither resisting nor reconciling.

“The politics of PML-N is beyond comprehension,” Mazhar Abbas said.

Lately, there is a lot of talk regarding fissures in PML-N leadership. PML-N appears to have split into two factions with Shahbaz Sharif on one end, and Maryam Nawaz on the other. Even though Shahbaz Sharif denied such claims, experts believe that there definitely is confusion and dissent within PML-N.

As for PPP, Mazhar Abbas explained that the party’s popularity is restricted to Sindh only. As a result, PPP is looking for allies outside the province. This is proving to be a tough feat for PPP ever since it quit PDM, the all parties’ coalition against the government.

Read more: PM Khan plans to eliminate corruption in Sindh

“As the situation stands now, I don’t see PTI losing the next elections,” Mazhar Abbas asserted.

It is indeed true that the Opposition has not portrayed a united front lately. When PDM formed, the Opposition’s position against the government appeared strong. However, with PPP quitting, and PDM leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman accusing Bilawal Bhutto, it appears as if the Opposition has turned on one another!

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

Kamran Shahid ko tu chup lag gaye...must be wondering why did I asked it

kheir, if PTI needs to win and that too with 2-3rd majority than they have to sort out Jehangir Tareen issue. PTI needs to rob back him in at any cost. Without JT, extracting easy seats from Southern Punjab will be difficult task.

 

[Jungibaaz]

Have there been any credible polls that show the governing party in the lead in next GE polls?

Seems unlikely unless the government rigs those elections, via EVMs or otherwise. Whatever might be said in the government's defence, high inflation and poor growth would in normal circumstances seal the fate of any incumbent government.

 

[FuturePAF]

Have there been any credible polls that show the governing party in the lead in next GE polls?

Seems unlikely unless the government rigs those elections, via EVMs or otherwise. Whatever might be said in the government's defence, high inflation and poor growth would in normal circumstances seal the fate of the any incumbent government.

A lot can happen in two years, if the global economy rebounds and Pakistan rides the wave to greener pastures, voters may be persuaded that the current government was responsible. Equally, should Afghanistan actually stabilize and a steady supply of humanitarian aid to Afghan employ a Large number of people in Pakistan to supply the logistics for said relief, the voters may also be persuaded that the Khan administration was responsible, not only for achieving a peaceful Afghanistan on Pakistan’s terms but a stable one as well.

those two issue, the economy and security, if secured or lost, will either make or break this administration’s chances for a second term

 

[Jungibaaz]

A lot can happen in two years, if the global economy rebounds and Pakistan rides the wave to greener pastures, voters may be persuaded that the current government was responsible. Equally, should Afghanistan actually stabilize and a steady supply of humanitarian aid to Afghan employ a Large number of people in Pakistan to supply the logistics for said relief, the voters may also be persuaded that the Khan administration was responsible, not only for achieving a peaceful Afghanistan on Pakistan’s terms but a stable one as well.

those two issue, the economy and security, if secured or lost, will either make or break this administration’s chances for a second term

Sure, that's possible, but what evidence is there right now that they'd win the next election?

As for a global economic rebound, it is already underway. Even developed countries that have very low LT trend rates of growth will manage 5% GDP growth in the coming quarters. Pakistan if it achieves this level will stay on par with previous years, but not quite outperform.

And I think it's too soon to celebrate anything on Afghanistan, we still have no clarity on what becomes of the TTP yet, let alone all the other issues Afghanistan faces.

 

[ziaulislam]

In an interview with Kamran Shahid on Off the Record, leading Pakistani journalist Mazhar Abbas thinks PTI will win the next elections. He also said it is highly unlikely that PPP or PML-N will come into power.

During the show, Kamran Shahid played Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s recent clip on PPP. He leveled heavy accusations against PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto.

Maulana Fazlur Rehman lashed out at Bilawal Bhutto and accused him of playing into the hands of the Establishment. As a result, he destroyed the PDM’s mission.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1436544442865913859

“Bilawal bracketed himself with the federal government and the establishment. The option of (en-mass) resignations was a part of the PDM manifesto. Had the PPP leadership agreed to the PDM decision, the federal government would have fallen. Also, elections would have been held by now,” he said while commenting over the failure of the PDM to topple the federal government.

Read more: PDM to expel PPP and ANP from Opposition alliance?

Fazl did not stop and here and went on to accuse the PPP chairman further.

“The offer made to Bilawal was also made to us but Bilawal accepted the offer and we rejected that offer,” he said apparently referring to the backchannel contacts with the establishment.


On this note, anchorperson Kamran Shahid said if that is the case, then there is no point for Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) as the election appears to be rigged.

However, MNA Farrukh Habib, also present, said there is no credibility to Maulana Fazl Rehman’s words since he favors only the ruling party.

Moreover, in response to Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s latest comments on PPP allegedly striking a deal with the Establishment, Mazhar Abbas predicted that PTI will again win the elections of 2023.

Read more: PTI hits back at PML-N’s claims of ruining Pakistan’s economy




Opposition to see its downfall?

As per Mazhar Abbas, the Opposition is floundering. With the way it is doing politics, PTI will soon see victory. Moreover, he highlighted that PML-N is more confused than PPP. He said PML-N is neither resisting nor reconciling.

“The politics of PML-N is beyond comprehension,” Mazhar Abbas said.

Lately, there is a lot of talk regarding fissures in PML-N leadership. PML-N appears to have split into two factions with Shahbaz Sharif on one end, and Maryam Nawaz on the other. Even though Shahbaz Sharif denied such claims, experts believe that there definitely is confusion and dissent within PML-N.

As for PPP, Mazhar Abbas explained that the party’s popularity is restricted to Sindh only. As a result, PPP is looking for allies outside the province. This is proving to be a tough feat for PPP ever since it quit PDM, the all parties’ coalition against the government.

Read more: PM Khan plans to eliminate corruption in Sindh

“As the situation stands now, I don’t see PTI losing the next elections,” Mazhar Abbas asserted.

It is indeed true that the Opposition has not portrayed a united front lately. When PDM formed, the Opposition’s position against the government appeared strong. However, with PPP quitting, and PDM leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman accusing Bilawal Bhutto, it appears as if the Opposition has turned on one another!

KPK---PTI
CENTRAL PUNJAB---PMLN
SOUTH PUNJAB--- SWING STATE
KARACHI ---MQM PPPP AND PTI SPLIT
INTERIOR SINDH---PPPP

CONCULSION:
60% Coalition govt of either opposition or PMLM/PPP 40% PTI MQM colaition

Unless south punjab (establishmemt centric feudal lords) and karachi delivers heavily PTI cannot win

 

[FuturePAF]

Sure, that's possible, but what evidence is there right now that they'd win the next election?

As for a global economic rebound, it is already underway. Even developed countries that have very low LT trend rates of growth will manage 5% GDP growth in the coming quarters. Pakistan if it achieves this level will stay on par with previous years, but not quite outperform.

And I think it's too soon to celebrate anything on Afghanistan, we still have no clarity on what becomes of the TTP yet, let alone all the other issues Afghanistan faces.

Fair enough, no evidence as of yet and too early to tell on both counts. It’s the government’s task to manage the two issues, and should they do a decent job, they may vote the PTI back in. Narratives will be spun by all parties, the better job the PTI does by next year, they maybe able to claim good governance and greener pastures.
If they do a poor job, the writing will be on the wall and the opposition will be more confidently vocal.

 

[Jungibaaz]

Fair enough, no evidence as of yet and too early to tell on both counts. It’s the government’s task to manage the two issues, and should they do a decent job, they may vote the PTI back in. Narratives will be spun by all parties, the better job the PTI does by next year, they maybe able to claim good governance and greener pastures.
If they do a poor job, the writing will be on the wall and the opposition will be more confidently vocal.

Agree. As for GE polls. We don't have a two party system, and our voting system is FPTP rather than proportional. So here's the latest polling data I can see on wiki:

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	PTI	PML(N)	PPP	MMAA	TLP	Other	Lead	Margin of error	Sample size	Undecideds & Non-votersB	Polling method
IPOR (IRI)	11 November 2020	PDF	36%	38%	13%	4%	3%	6%	2%	±3.22%	2,003	32%	CATI
IPOR (IRI)	13 August 2020	PDF	33%	38%	15%	3%	3%	8%	5%	±2.95%	2,024	26%	CATI
IPOR (IRI)	30 June 2020	PDF	32%	36%	15%	4%	3%	10%	4%	±3.17%	1,702	25%	CATI
Gallup Pakistan	24 June 2019	PDF	31%	28%	15%	5%	21%	3%	±3-5%	~1,400	N/AC	In-Person Interviews
IPOR (IRI)	22 November 2018	PDF	43%	27%	15%	1%	1%	13%	16%	±2.05%	3,991	22%	In-Person Interviews
2018 Elections	25 July 2018	ECP	31.8%	24.4%	13%	4.9%	4.2%	21.7%	7.5%	N/A	53,123,733	N/A	Final Election Results

Based on this the competition is tight, a lot will depend on the next two years. Given missing polls for 2021, some change in this could have happened, especially if the narrative of an economic rebound in Pakistan has helped the government any bit.

But essentially, if even 10% of those who voted for the government abandon it on the basis of inflation, growth, promises not delivered, or just do not vote as enthusiastically this time, then there's little chance of them winning the next election. Maybe these journalists know something we don't and are therefore confident in forecasting the election this early. This is of course all predicated upon the assumption that no rigging occurs, otherwise, all one needs to do is rig a few marginal seats and ballots by small amounts of votes, less than 1% of the electorate to swing tens of seats one way or another.

 

[313ghazi]

Sure, that's possible, but what evidence is there right now that they'd win the next election?

As for a global economic rebound, it is already underway. Even developed countries that have very low LT trend rates of growth will manage 5% GDP growth in the coming quarters. Pakistan if it achieves this level will stay on par with previous years, but not quite outperform.

And I think it's too soon to celebrate anything on Afghanistan, we still have no clarity on what becomes of the TTP yet, let alone all the other issues Afghanistan faces.

Honestly I think only because of how shit the opposition is. Any competent opposition would have the next election in the bag.
Also govts always spend shitloads in the run up to elections. In the final 12 months they should subsidise the crap out of everything and then u turn immediately after the election.

If you win - what's anyone going to do? If you lose - you leave a land mine for those coming in.

 

[Patriot forever]

Agree. As for GE polls. We don't have a two party system, and our voting system is FPTP rather than proportional. So here's the latest polling data I can see on wiki:

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	PTI	PML(N)	PPP	MMAA	TLP	Other	Lead	Margin of error	Sample size	Undecideds & Non-votersB	Polling method
IPOR (IRI)	11 November 2020	PDF	36%	38%	13%	4%	3%	6%	2%	±3.22%	2,003	32%	CATI
IPOR (IRI)	13 August 2020	PDF	33%	38%	15%	3%	3%	8%	5%	±2.95%	2,024	26%	CATI
IPOR (IRI)	30 June 2020	PDF	32%	36%	15%	4%	3%	10%	4%	±3.17%	1,702	25%	CATI
Gallup Pakistan	24 June 2019	PDF	31%	28%	15%	5%	21%	3%	±3-5%	~1,400	N/AC	In-Person Interviews
IPOR (IRI)	22 November 2018	PDF	43%	27%	15%	1%	1%	13%	16%	±2.05%	3,991	22%	In-Person Interviews
2018 Elections	25 July 2018	ECP	31.8%	24.4%	13%	4.9%	4.2%	21.7%	7.5%	N/A	53,123,733	N/A	Final Election Results

Based on this the competition is tight, a lot will depend on the next two years. Given missing polls for 2021, some change in this could have happened, especially if the narrative of an economic rebound in Pakistan has helped the government any bit.

But essentially, if even 10% of those who voted for the government abandon it on the basis of inflation, growth, promises not delivered, or just do not vote as enthusiastically this time, then there's little chance of them winning the next election. Maybe these journalists know something we don't and are therefore confident in forecasting the election this early. This is of course all predicated upon the assumption that no rigging occurs, otherwise, all one needs to do is rig a few marginal seats and ballots by small amounts of votes, less than 1% of the electorate to swing tens of seats one way or another.

Every poll is around a year old when corona hit with the economic impact. A lot has changed since than after the economic rebound.

Recent poll in Gallop suggests we 48% are happy with pti which is more than the people that are unhappy.

 

[ziaulislam]

Every poll is around a year old when corona hit with the economic impact. A lot has changed since than after the economic rebound.

Recent poll in Gallop suggests we 48% are happy with pti which is more than the people that are unhappy.

Gallop polls are reliable but central punjab is unmoved
Unless we see a shift there PMLN has a good chance

What PTI needed was a central punjab focused leader in center ans province..instead it gave it south punjab ..we all know how they are rdiculed like people of KPK..so 3 yrs everyone spent time rediculing buzdaar

 

[Jungibaaz]

Honestly I think only because of how shit the opposition is. Any competent opposition would have the next election in the bag.
Also govts always spend shitloads in the run up to elections. In the final 12 months they should subsidise the crap out of everything and then u turn immediately after the election.

If you win - what's anyone going to do? If you lose - you leave a land mine for those coming in.

Even this shyt opposition might become more of a force if their precious seats are threatened. They may not care enough to do some real opposition type politics in the interim, but when it's their own jobs on the line come an election, they all start making an effort. IMO IK might try for an early election next year too, to nip certain movements and 2023 uncertainties in the bud. Which is why we're seeing the rush to push in EVMs. I've also heard chatter from PMLN types about a possible return for Nawaz, which if he comes back the government will probably arrest him immediately.

But IMO the real challenge, it will have to face off not just against the opposition, but also the ECP, and some parts of our disgruntled civil society. And if the matter of EVMs for example gets challenged, I think the SC will side with the ECP. SC will likely back ECP anyway, but especially with the current state of the Bar.

@saiyan0321 on the latter, do you know of any recent developments in the mood of the Bar, and subsequently the SJC?

Every poll is around a year old when corona hit with the economic impact. A lot has changed since than after the economic rebound.

Recent poll in Gallop suggests we 48% are happy with pti which is more than the people that are unhappy.

While that might be true, I'm not sure how well approval ratings translate to polls. There is literally no chance of any party getting something like 48% of the vote for example, if they did, we'd be looking at well over 200 seats in the NA. Take that table for example that I posted, in parallel to those polling statistic, approval statistics were always higher. Anyway, let's wait and see. I'll be very interested to see the results of another national level poll. I'm sure the government, establishment, media, and parties, are all conducting their own poll type estimates already. Just nothing published yet from IPSOS or Gallup since 2020.

 

[FuturePAF]

Agree. As for GE polls. We don't have a two party system, and our voting system is FPTP rather than proportional. So here's the latest polling data I can see on wiki:

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	PTI	PML(N)	PPP	MMAA	TLP	Other	Lead	Margin of error	Sample size	Undecideds & Non-votersB	Polling method
IPOR (IRI)	11 November 2020	PDF	36%	38%	13%	4%	3%	6%	2%	±3.22%	2,003	32%	CATI
IPOR (IRI)	13 August 2020	PDF	33%	38%	15%	3%	3%	8%	5%	±2.95%	2,024	26%	CATI
IPOR (IRI)	30 June 2020	PDF	32%	36%	15%	4%	3%	10%	4%	±3.17%	1,702	25%	CATI
Gallup Pakistan	24 June 2019	PDF	31%	28%	15%	5%	21%	3%	±3-5%	~1,400	N/AC	In-Person Interviews
IPOR (IRI)	22 November 2018	PDF	43%	27%	15%	1%	1%	13%	16%	±2.05%	3,991	22%	In-Person Interviews
2018 Elections	25 July 2018	ECP	31.8%	24.4%	13%	4.9%	4.2%	21.7%	7.5%	N/A	53,123,733	N/A	Final Election Results

Based on this the competition is tight, a lot will depend on the next two years. Given missing polls for 2021, some change in this could have happened, especially if the narrative of an economic rebound in Pakistan has helped the government any bit.

But essentially, if even 10% of those who voted for the government abandon it on the basis of inflation, growth, promises not delivered, or just do not vote as enthusiastically this time, then there's little chance of them winning the next election. Maybe these journalists know something we don't and are therefore confident in forecasting the election this early. This is of course all predicated upon the assumption that no rigging occurs, otherwise, all one needs to do is rig a few marginal seats and ballots by small amounts of votes, less than 1% of the electorate to swing tens of seats one way or another.

Also, we can’t discount how exhausted people are with COVID, and the global inflationary spike is undercutting incumbents worldwide. This government, if it can get the fundamentals right by the time of the elections and be on a positive trajectory it can say it sheparded the nation through unprecedented crisis, one on top of the next, but have primed the nation for growth in a more peaceful and stable neighborhood.

 

[Desprado]

Expert predicted in 2017 that PMLN will win elections of 2018 look what happened. We might not now what happens in the future but with Imran Khan inflation performance establishment will save them self rather than Imran Khan experiment.

 

[Patriot forever]

While that might be true, I'm not sure how well approval ratings translate to polls. There is literally no chance of any party getting something like 48% of the vote for example, if they did, we'd be looking at well over 200 seats in the NA. Take that table for example that I posted, in parallel to those polling statistic, approval statistics were always higher. Anyway, let's wait and see. I'll be very interested to see the results of another national level poll. I'm sure the government, establishment, media, and parties, are all conducting their own poll type estimates already. Just nothing published yet from IPSOS or Gallup since 2020.

Today is cantonment board election day. Let's wait for the results.