Every 2 years China adds a Russia

[American_Millenium]

I agree comparing Indian economy and chinese economy isnt fair now,it would hv been fair to compare them back in 2010 when both these countries were the fastest growing major economies in the world,but not anymore,India had slowed down and had lost a lot of ground. The reason i said such comparision to ''mocking India'' is because you can come across such comparision every other day on the forum. And anyways its not the Indian government that compares these two economies,they have their own shit to clear first before making any kinda of comparisions,it mostly the western world,or private Indian media channels who love to quote western news articles.

Lets be objective.

From 2010 - 2011, India added $172 billion

From 2009 - 2010, India added it's largest amount in history, some $340 billion

From 2008 - 2009, India added $140 billion

From 2007 - 2008, India lost -$15 billion

From 2006 - 2007, India added $288 billion

From 2005 - 2006, India added $115 billion

Source: IMF GDP

And I gave you the numbers for India 2010 - 2013 in my first or second post. The 2009 - 2010 numbers were a fluke because of the financial crisis in developed countries (even China hit a high during that time).

India at it's height was averaging 20% of China's total value added.

There has been no depreciation in Indian rupee throughout this year, rupee was at 68/$ in August 2013 which had appriciated to 62/$ in Jan'2014 and keeps hovering between 59-62/$,right now rupee is at 61/$,it infact has appreciated in a year then depriciating ,India is set to become a $2 trillion dollar econony,those estimates are preety much accurate for India.

If that's true then it could surpass $2 trillion. I guess we shall see.

 

[Nova2]

Lets be objective.

From 2010 - 2011, India added $172 billion

From 2009 - 2010, India added it's largest amount in history, some $340 billion

From 2008 - 2009, India added $140 billion

From 2007 - 2008, India lost -$15 billion

From 2006 - 2007, India added $288 billion

From 2005 - 2006, India added $115 billion

Source: IMF GDP

And I gave you the numbers for India 2010 - 2013 in my first or second post. The 2009 - 2010 numbers were a fluke because of the financial crisis in developed countries (even China hit a high during that time).

India at it's height was averaging 20% of China's total value added.

Off course India would add $300 billion its highest having an economy of just $1.7trillion ,don't tell me you are comparing India of 2005 with china of 2005 , say,India growing at 10% in 2005 would hv at most added $83billion at most in comparision to china adding $228billion at 10% growth rate in 2005, thats because china was $2.2 trillion dollar economy in '05 against India which was $834billion economy. It makes no sense to compare them in terms of how many $$$ they add in a particular time time frame,comparisions are made based upon the growth rate that the two countries have ,India and china were 2 MAJOR fastest growing economies in the world,comparisions were made cos of that.
Anyways, lets compare how did both of these countries grow when had similar GDP's.
# India -$834bill to $949bill--2005-06--- difference--$115bill
#China--$892bill to $985bill---1996-97--difference--- $93bill
-----------
#India--$949bill to $1.238trill---2006-07---difference---$291bill
#China--$985bill-$1045bill---1997-98---diff--- $60bill
---------
#India---$1.238trill-$1.223till---2007-08---diff--$15bill(-ve)
#China---$1.045trill to $1.100trill---1998-99---diff--- $55bill
-----------
#India---$1.223trill to $1.365trill---2008-09---diff---$142bill
#China---$1.100 to $1.1192---1999-00---diff---$92bill
----------
#India----$1.365trill to $1.708trill----2009-10---diff---$343bill
#China----$1.192trill to $1.317---2000-01-----diff----$225bill
----------
#India---$1.708trill to $1.880trill----2010-11---diff---$162bill
#China----$1.317tril to $1.455trill---2002-03---diff---$138bill
----------
#China---$1.455tril to $1.650----2002-03---diff---$195bill
----------
#China---$1.650trill to $1.944----2003-04----diff---- $296bill
-----*---*
So when India and china had similar economies they doesn't seem to be any difference between the amount of $$$$$ they add every year,infact china never added more than $300bill before reaching $2trillion mark so what should i make out of that?
I will say it again ,comparing Indias economy of 05 or 09 in terms of how many $$$$ they added every year is childish,another simple example, china growing at 10% in 09 would add $510bill whereas India at 10% would at most add $136bill, it make no sense bud.

India at it's height was averaging 20% of China's total value added.

^^^^^

If that's true then it could surpass $2 trillion. I guess we shall see.

Maybe,we had actually done it and had gone past that mark,we are already into 3Q of this fiscal year.

 

[l'ingénieur]

china pride world wide

 

[American_Millenium]

Off course India would add $300 billion its highest having an economy of just $1.7trillion ,don't tell me you are comparing India of 2005 with china of 2005 , say,India growing at 10% in 2005 would hv at most added $83billion at most in comparision to china adding $228billion at 10% growth rate in 2005, thats because china was $2.2 trillion dollar economy in '05 against India which was $834billion economy. It makes no sense to compare them in terms of how many $$$ they add in a particular time time frame,comparisions are made based upon the growth rate that the two countries have ,India and china were 2 MAJOR fastest growing economies in the world,comparisions were made cos of that.
Anyways, lets compare how did both of these countries grow when had similar GDP's.
# India -$834bill to $949bill--2005-06--- difference--$115bill
#China--$892bill to $985bill---1996-97--difference--- $93bill
-----------
#India--$949bill to $1.238trill---2006-07---difference---$291bill
#China--$985bill-$1045bill---1997-98---diff--- $60bill
---------
#India---$1.238trill-$1.223till---2007-08---diff--$15bill(-ve)
#China---$1.045trill to $1.100trill---1998-99---diff--- $55bill
-----------
#India---$1.223trill to $1.365trill---2008-09---diff---$142bill
#China---$1.100 to $1.1192---1999-00---diff---$92bill
----------
#India----$1.365trill to $1.708trill----2009-10---diff---$343bill
#China----$1.192trill to $1.317---2000-01-----diff----$225bill
----------
#India---$1.708trill to $1.880trill----2010-11---diff---$162bill
#China----$1.317tril to $1.455trill---2002-03---diff---$138bill
----------
#China---$1.455tril to $1.650----2002-03---diff---$195bill
----------
#China---$1.650trill to $1.944----2003-04----diff---- $296bill
-----*---*
So when India and china had similar economies they doesn't seem to be any difference between the amount of $$$$$ they add every year,infact china never added more than $300bill before reaching $2trillion mark so what should i make out of that?
I will say it again ,comparing Indias economy of 05 or 09 in terms of how many $$$$ they added every year is childish,another simple example, china growing at 10% in 09 would add $510bill whereas India at 10% would at most add $136bill, it make no sense bud.

^^^^^

Maybe,we had actually done it and had gone past that mark,we are already into 3Q of this fiscal year.

Yes I agree but also, consider that China added a lot more during it's period at India's level. How else did China surpass India in the 90's and continuously become even larger? Same size in the 90's, 2x the size in the 2000's, and now 5x the size in the early 2010's.

 

[Nova2]

Yes I agree but also, consider that China added a lot more during it's period at India's level. How else did China surpass India in the 90's and continuously become even larger? Same size in the 90's, 2x the size in the 2000's, and now 5x the size in the early 2010's.

China was always ahead of India ,throughout the 80's and 90's.
List of IMF ranked countries by past and projected GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
though i remember about a year ago that India was head of China and that China surpased India in 1983, and this was possible because of liberalisation these two economies, Chinese economy was liberalised in 1979 in contrast to India which was 12yrs late in 1991.
China had a 12yr advantage already as the world had an open market throughout the 80's to invest in, advantage being cheap labour. But in Indias case it was only after 1991 that investment could pour into India and push up its growth.china and India had been on par (in terms of $$ they added every year) when they had similar GDP,infact India could add $300bill in a year which china never did while it had an economy below $2trillion,but it doent mean much.

Same size in the 90's, 2x the size in the 2000's,

As the link said you already had gone past us in the 80's itself. 1990 chinese gdp-- $404bill
Indian gdp----$326bill,see you were already ahead of us,i dont know here did u get that info from.

China's miraculous growth was between 2000-10 ,that is when its economy began to burst, foreign reserves began to rise at unprecedented rate.
I hope my friend @Chinese-Dragon agrees when i say this, and this is what the economist say aswell that India is 10yrs behind China economically,but the bottom line is china grew better than ever between 2000-10 and if India can't do what china did, then that 10yrs gap is going to widen in the future.

 

[mike2000]

Russia's strengths that are not accounted for in their nominal GDP exist only because of their past nominal GDP. Throughout the 70's and 80's Russia's GDP reached over half the US, and at one point reached 65% of the United States.

Russia's large amount of military equipment and large amount of equipment and knowledge in many industries is not irrespective of their GDP, but rather because of their GDP in past decades. Imagine if China had a GDP at it's level today for another 20 years. That's what it's predecessor the Soviet Union had. It's no surprise that they still retain much of the equipment, know-how, and skill-sets from such a large economic power.



These have to do with the luck of being born on such land, and having the past economic might to extract such resources. Not some metric that we can only guess at.

Besides, it's not a positive that Russia's natural resources represent such a large amount of their total GDP. It's one of the highest in the world.

View attachment 138122

In about 2 decades from now, Russia's influence/position will reduce even more, not just because their economy is over reliant on natural resources/or that they arent trying hard enough, but even more so because other emerging countries are rising/growing way more faster than Russia(India will soon overtake them economically, Turkey, Mexico, Indonesia etc) and this trend will continue for a long time to come. However this doesnt means Russia will be an insignificant country, No they will still be a major stakeholder in the world, simply due to their vast natural resources, landmass and soviet era military industries/technologies (which gives them some leverage by exposrting weapons to developing countries: e.g India relies on them for almost all her critical defence needs). So i agree GDP alone is not the only determinant of power, but it indeed is a major factor to consider.

Yes I agree but also, consider that China added a lot more during it's period at India's level. How else did China surpass India in the 90's and continuously become even larger? Same size in the 90's, 2x the size in the 2000's, and now 5x the size in the early 2010's.

The gap between India and China will only increase in the coming years, simply because China is already too big relative to India(5x more), so even if china grows at 5%(which seems unlikely for now) and india grows at 7% China will still be adding more than twice to its GDP than India. Bar a major calamity which will affect only China, i dont see the gap reducing at all. It indeed will increase in even more in a decade or so from now(my bet is it will be over 9 times more by then).
However apart from China, compared to any other country out there(maybe bar the U.S), India is still doing quite well/adding more to its GDP in dollars value than most countries in the world. Their growth rate of about 5.8-6% is still quite good(we in the west/U.S) will be in heaven if we had such growth rates(even though i agree our case is different since we are already a developed country). So India might be doing bad when compared to China, but then again its doing way better when compared to almost any other country out there. So we should stop this India-China comparisms everytime. Each country is different/follows a different model. Just like Britain and France(i dont see many people always comparing us together, even thoguh we are more closer in size than India and China).

 

[zzzz]

Russia's strengths that are not accounted for in their nominal GDP exist only because of their past nominal GDP. Throughout the 70's and 80's Russia's GDP reached over half the US, and at one point reached 65% of the United States.

USSR GDP was calculated with official Ruble/Dollar exchange rate, while it was illegal to buy or sell dollars in USSR. During USSR times dollar could be bought on black market for a price that was 3-4 times higher than official exchnage rate. That means the real nominal GDP of USSR (2 times more population than Russia) was no more than 15-20% of USA.

 

[American_Millenium]

China was always ahead of India ,throughout the 80's and 90's.
List of IMF ranked countries by past and projected GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
though i remember about a year ago that India was head of China and that China surpased India in 1983, and this was possible because of liberalisation these two economies, Chinese economy was liberalised in 1979 in contrast to India which was 12yrs late in 1991.
China had a 12yr advantage already as the world had an open market throughout the 80's to invest in, advantage being cheap labour. But in Indias case it was only after 1991 that investment could pour into India and push up its growth.china and India had been on par (in terms of $$ they added every year) when they had similar GDP,infact India could add $300bill in a year which china never did while it had an economy below $2trillion,but it doent mean much.

As the link said you already had gone past us in the 80's itself. 1990 chinese gdp-- $404bill
Indian gdp----$326bill,see you were already ahead of us,i dont know here did u get that info from.

China's miraculous growth was between 2000-10 ,that is when its economy began to burst, foreign reserves began to rise at unprecedented rate.
I hope my friend @Chinese-Dragon agrees when i say this, and this is what the economist say aswell that India is 10yrs behind China economically,but the bottom line is china grew better than ever between 2000-10 and if India can't do what china did, then that 10yrs gap is going to widen in the future.

If India starts growing as fast as China did over the last decade, it will be growing faster than it ever has by a large margin (remember that inflation and currency changes need to be factored into GDP estimates as well, and the Renminbi shoots up while the Rupee tends to fall or stagnate a lot).

But if it somehow manages this feat, tripling GDP growth, which I find unfathomable, it will still have to deal with the fact that China will have also progressed in that decade (albeit slower). Basically, India needs to triple GDP growth and keep it there for decades to catch up to China.

Let's do the math: 1,876 x 1.1 until we reach China's 2013 GDP of $9.4 trillion. It will take India until 2030 to reach China's 2013 GDP of $9.4 trillion if it somehow starts growing by 10% per annum and the Rupee is STABLE for this duration. By then China's GDP will be multiple times what it was in 2013.

 

[American_Millenium]

In about 2 decades from now, Russia's influence/position will reduce even more, not just because their economy is over reliant on natural resources/or that they arent trying hard enough, but even more so because other emerging countries are rising/growing way more faster than Russia(India will soon overtake them economically, Turkey, Mexico, Indonesia etc) and this trend will continue for a long time to come. However this doesnt means Russia will be an insignificant country, No they will still be a major stakeholder in the world, simply due to their vast natural resources, landmass and soviet era military industries/technologies (which gives them some leverage by exposrting weapons to developing countries: e.g India relies on them for almost all her critical defence needs). So i agree GDP alone is not the only determinant of power, but it indeed is a major factor to consider.

Sadly Soviet-era equipment must eventually be retired, and Russia will not be able to produce any next-gen military equipment anywhere near the numbers it did during the 40's-80's. Even Soviet-era military technologies must continue to have R&D spent to advance, but they are not able to spend nearly as much as the Soviet Union (which had a bigger GDP and spend 25% of it on the military) or modern-day PRC or the USA.

As the years go on, Russia is replacing her Armed Forces equipment that may eventually match American counterparts, but even then they will be produced at 1/5th the rate (at best).

 

[Nova2]

If India starts growing as fast as China did over the last decade, it will be growing faster than it ever has by a large margin (remember that inflation and currency changes need to be factored into GDP estimates as well, and the Renminbi shoots up while the Rupee tends to fall or stagnate a lot).

As i said rupee has performed quite well this year,during general election ruppe had appreciated from 61 to 57 though it was brought down back to 59-60 level by RBI,cos sharp appreciation of rupee would make our exports expensive.for the time being RBI wants rupee to hover between 59-62,today it is @61.1/$,it may rise slowly in the future,though nothing can be taken for granted.

But if it somehow manages this feat, tripling GDP growth, which I find unfathomable, it will still have to deal with the fact that China will have also progressed in that decade (albeit slower). Basically, India needs to triple GDP growth and keep it there for decades to catch up to China.

Let's do the math: 1,876 x 1.1 until we reach China's 2013 GDP of $9.4 trillion. It will take India until 2030 to reach China's 2013 GDP of $9.4 trillion if it somehow starts growing by 10% per annum and the Rupee is STABLE for this duration. By then China's GDP will be multiple times what it was in 2013.

I am very doubtfull India would be able to do what china did,just to remind you we are still growing @5.7% (2014 Q1 growth rate) and are forcasted to reach 8-9% in next 3yrs or so,so just like i said the gap would just widen from now on. China grew its fastest in 1st decade of 21st century (2000-10) ,this is the decade where it did the impossible. So yeah,i wouldnt be surprised if become a $9trill economy by 2030,though you neva know how things may unfold in the future.fingures crossed.

 

[American_Millenium]

As i said rupee has performed quite well this year,during general election ruppe had appreciated from 61 to 57 though it was brought down back to 59-60 level by RBI,cos sharp appreciation of rupee would make our exports expensive.for the time being RBI wants rupee to hover between 59-62,today it is @61.1/$,it may rise slowly in the future,though nothing can be taken for granted.

I am very doubtfull India would be able to do what china did,just to remind you we are still growing @5.7% (2014 Q1 growth rate) and are forcasted to reach 8-9% in next 3yrs or so,so just like i said the gap would just widen from now on. China grew its fastest in 1st decade of 21st century (2000-10) ,this is the decade where it did the impossible. So yeah,i wouldnt be surprised if become a $9trill economy by 2030,though you neva know how things may unfold in the future.fingures crossed.

Source?

 

[Nova2]

Source?

It was projected to touch 8% mark in 2018 by IMF,but now they had scaled down their projection figure to 2015 ,as per which India would grow at 6.4% in '15.There were some other analyst aswell who had come up with this figure. Anyways i dont care about projections,it was thish very IMF which last Oct had forcasted India to grow at 6.5-6.9% by 2019,now it says 6.4% by 2015.They keep jumping with their figures every quater. All i am waiting us for India's Q2 growth rate figure,looking at QoQ growth is the best way to figure out well are we doing economically.

 

[DoTell]

What's the big deal? India is also adding an Australia every 2 years, in population that is. I'm not kidding. Look it up.

Mind you though, it is the "democratic", "free" Australia that is being added

 

[Beidou2020]

All this China vs India comparison is ridiculous.

China will always be ahead of India.

 

[Edison Chen]

Can't wait to see 2014 figures.