Enlightened Stupidity

[roadrunner]

It certainly had a big impact, not just right then and there, but in the long term. Pakistan was since then seen as a warmonger and a proliferator of terror. Up until 1999, the west always had a policy of parity between India and Pakistan. But this changed, investors were now all excited about India and essentially uplifted it's economy by making radical changes in their foreign policy by first and foremost scapping the parity doctrine. Unfortunately Pakistan was branded as a bad apple and avoided like the plague by potential investors and their governments. As I said in my previous post, the reason Pakistan is treated like a red headed step child is specifically because of this conflict. Bill Clinton, the guy who was responsible for changing the dynamic of the entire region post 1999 wrote a lot about this in his memoir.

Energon, please. You're making too much out of the Kargil skirmish. Let's not go into Kargil itself. But there's no way Pakistan's economy went under because of Kargil. Pakistan's economy was messed up long before this. To fight a skirmish in Kargil was certainly not expensive, as most was guerilla warfare, of which the facts are disputed. That leaves your other theory that Pakistan was seen as a bad apple because of the Kargil skirmish and therefore investors did not look to invest into Pakistan. This is just nonsense. Lack of investment in Pakistan during 1999 was because the country had nearly defaulted. There was simply no point in investing. Investors care about one thing..making money. Kargil would have had no impact on this, and the US or UN did not place any sanctions on Pakistan, or make any anti Pak recommendations over Kargil, so this certainly had no impact on investment into Pakistan post Kargil.

One things for sure. There hasnt been a long term fallout from Kargil. Investment into Pakistan increased when reforms were carried out in 2002. From then on, it's been registering record levels of investment.

PS Quoting asiatimes is like quoting wiki for Pakistan articles. It's written by some guy carrying a grudge against the military (he got fired or something).

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

An interesting commentary that presents issues that occurred.

I am sure more will emerge because of this article and then the whole issue will unfold and become transparent.

 

[jantobanto]

surely, the name of this theard, is the best one , i have ever seen.

 

[x_man]

Energon, please. You're making too much out of the Kargil skirmish. Let's not go into Kargil itself. But there's no way Pakistan's economy went under because of Kargil. Pakistan's economy was messed up long before this. To fight a skirmish in Kargil was certainly not expensive, as most was guerilla warfare, of which the facts are disputed.

Kargil Skirmish!!!!! Was it a skirmish? I think you need to get your definitions straight. Do you have any idea that how much this sweet Skirmish cost Pakistan in term of dead/injured and in economic terms? Even a small to medium level exercise in peacetime costs in millions and this wasn’t an exercise. Now just consider the economic impact when Pakistan was already down to its worst, about to be declared defaulted (courtesy of NS) and as you said that it was messed up totally. With this state of economy, was there any justification for the Kargil adventure: I don’t think so.

Let me enlighten you on one other aspect. Ever since it happened, KARGIL is considered a taboo word in Army. Nobody wants to discuss it any professinal course because of obvious reasons. Till the time Mushy is hanging around, Kargil will not be remembered. In Dec 2004, we visited Command & Staff College,Quetta for joint war gaming and there we were also suppose to attend an address by then Gen Mush. Thrice we were reminded by staff college faculty not to ask any question from General regarding Kargil. Actually, previous year some guy in Blues touched this topic and General wasn’t comfortable with that and he gave a very rude reply to that ooficer. So this year it was made sure that no one touches this topic. We were OK with that because PAF had nothing to do with Kargil anyway because Army wanted to do it alone (without any air support) and never wanted to involve Men in Blues assuming that they will handle it alone with an excellent outcome. In Staff College and even Armed forces war Course, they discuss and draw lessons from any teeny tiny operation that happened in Sudan or Algeria or Peru or elsewhere in world, but, they are not allowed to discuss this operation that cost us loads in term of life and economy and resulted in an embarresment to our nation. Its not part of any curriculum in any course,you can confirm this from any Staff college graduate.

As far as for the culprits of Kargil, people got their due share. Major Generals became Lieuteneant Gens, Lt Gens made to Gens, Army chief became the President and the dumbo civilian PM was kicked out and never heard after that. Army put the Kargil under the carpet and assumed it never happened. Nobody was ever court marshalled, no enquiry held and nobody was held accountable and everybody lived happily ever after…COOL.

So guys, when the people/organisation directly involved in this operation are not interested in it and have long forgotten about it then why on earth we are banging are heads around here. So Let’s also assume it never happened and enjoy our lives.

 

[roadrunner]

Kargil Skirmish!!!!! Was it a skirmish? I think you need to get your definitions straight. Do you have any idea that how much this sweet Skirmish cost Pakistan in term of dead/injured and in economic terms? Even a small to medium level exercise in peacetime costs in million of dollars and this wasn’t an exercise. Now just consider the economic impact when Pakistan was already down to its worst, about to be declared defaulted and as you said that it was messed up. With this state of economy, was there any justification for the Kargil adventure: I don’t think so.

Let me enlighten you on one other aspect. Ever since it happened, KARGIL is considered a taboo word in Army. Nobody wants to discuss it anywhere because of obvious reasons. Till the time Mushy is hanging around, Kargil will not be remembered. In Dec 2004, we visited Command & Staff College,Quetta for joint war gaming and there were also suppose to attend an address by then Gen Mush. Thrice we were reminded by staff college faculty not to ask any question from General regarding Kargil. Actually, previous year some guy in Blues touched this topic and General wasn’t comfortable with that question. So this year it was made sure that no one touches this topic. We were OK with that because PAF had nothing to do with Kargil anyway because Army wanted to do it alone (without any air support) and never wanted to involve Men in Blues. In Staff College and even Armed forces war Course, they discuss and draw lessons from any teeny tiny operation that happened in Sudan or Algeria or Peru, but, they are not allowed to discuss this operation that cost us loads in term of life and economy. Its not part of any curriculum in any course,you can confirm this from any Staff college graduate.

As far as for the culprits of Kargil, people got their due share. Major Generals became Lieuteneant Gens, Lt Gens made to Gens, Army chief became the President and the dumbo civilian PM was kicked out and never heard after that. Army put the Kargil under the carpet and assumed it never happened. Nobody was ever court marshalled, no enquiry held and nobody was held accountable and everybody lived happily ever after…COOL.

So guys, when the people/organisation directly involved in this operation are not interested in it and have long forgotten about it then why on earth we are banging are heads around here. So Let’s also assume it never happened and enjoy our lives.

Not interested in discussing the details of the Kargil skirmish or about what you claim are hot topics in Pak Army or wherever. However, Kargil was just a skirmish..nothing more. It was a covert war. There was just artillery and machine gun fire used, no planes from PAF. So comparing it to a regular military exercise (as you say that costs millions) is just baloney.

Now, while I do agree that Pakistan was on the verge of defaulting and that Kargil would have pushed it slightly further in that direction, it made hardly any impact to the economy of Pakistan, because if it had, then you would have seen Pakistan default. The fact that Pakistan didn't default (and has since recovered), shows the irrelevance of the Kargil skirmish (it certainly was no war).

 

[x_man]

Not interested in discussing the details of the Kargil skirmish or about what you claim are hot topics in Pak Army or wherever. However, Kargil was just a skirmish..nothing more. It was a covert war. There was just artillery and machine gun fire used, no planes from PAF. So comparing it to a regular military exercise (as you say that costs millions) is just baloney.
QUOTE]

Skirmish!!! Covert war!!!! Where do you get ideas from??
Well one thing is for sure: Kargil will not be hot topic till the time Gen Mush is around, cant say what happens after him.
As far as the question about airforce,IAF was used extesively (if you remember) in this 'skirmish' .Why PAF wasnt used,because army thought that they can handle it alone and succeed without Blues. Result is infront of us all.

As far as boosting economy, credit goes to 9/11 that definitely stablised our economy as a result.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Skirmish, war whatever - its arguing over semantics, and I think its a valid point that the type of engagement Kargil was, from the Pakistan side at least, does not support the assertion that there was a huge "direct economic impact".

If there was any sort of economic impact, Energon's point makes sense, that it was more of an indirect and longterm impact, in terms of possibly affecting investor confidence etc. - but a comparison of pre-Kargil and Post Kargil economic indicators shows no substantial movement either way - and there is no way to judge the long term impact since Pakistan's resurgence after 911 overrode any concerns or shortfalls that may have arisen.

A lot of people suggest that 911 benefited Pakistan - but what exactly happened after 911? We had another major, highly publicized war occurring on Pakistan's Western Border, we had the showdown with India in 2002, continued allegations of "sponsoring terrorism" from India and to top it all off, the same person in charge of running Pakistan who was "responsible" for Kargil. Had investor confidence really suffered from Kargil, we would never have seen the levels of foreign investment we did.

 

[blain2]

Kargil Skirmish!!!!! Was it a skirmish? I think you need to get your definitions straight. Do you have any idea that how much this sweet Skirmish cost Pakistan in term of dead/injured and in economic terms? Even a small to medium level exercise in peacetime costs in millions and this wasn’t an exercise. Now just consider the economic impact when Pakistan was already down to its worst, about to be declared defaulted (courtesy of NS) and as you said that it was messed up totally. With this state of economy, was there any justification for the Kargil adventure: I don’t think so.

Let me enlighten you on one other aspect. Ever since it happened, KARGIL is considered a taboo word in Army. Nobody wants to discuss it any professinal course because of obvious reasons. Till the time Mushy is hanging around, Kargil will not be remembered. In Dec 2004, we visited Command & Staff College,Quetta for joint war gaming and there we were also suppose to attend an address by then Gen Mush. Thrice we were reminded by staff college faculty not to ask any question from General regarding Kargil. Actually, previous year some guy in Blues touched this topic and General wasn’t comfortable with that and he gave a very rude reply to that ooficer. So this year it was made sure that no one touches this topic. We were OK with that because PAF had nothing to do with Kargil anyway because Army wanted to do it alone (without any air support) and never wanted to involve Men in Blues assuming that they will handle it alone with an excellent outcome. In Staff College and even Armed forces war Course, they discuss and draw lessons from any teeny tiny operation that happened in Sudan or Algeria or Peru or elsewhere in world, but, they are not allowed to discuss this operation that cost us loads in term of life and economy and resulted in an embarresment to our nation. Its not part of any curriculum in any course,you can confirm this from any Staff college graduate.

As far as for the culprits of Kargil, people got their due share. Major Generals became Lieuteneant Gens, Lt Gens made to Gens, Army chief became the President and the dumbo civilian PM was kicked out and never heard after that. Army put the Kargil under the carpet and assumed it never happened. Nobody was ever court marshalled, no enquiry held and nobody was held accountable and everybody lived happily ever after…COOL.

So guys, when the people/organisation directly involved in this operation are not interested in it and have long forgotten about it then why on earth we are banging are heads around here. So Let’s also assume it never happened and enjoy our lives.

Xman,

Army did not want to involve the PAF for some very sound reasons. Involvement of PAF would have escalated the issue into a potential full-fledged war. The Indians used their AF (although IA has difference of opinion with the IAF about the efficacy of the IAF during this conflict) but only on their own side of the border. Even if PAF had been involved, the RoE would have to be drastically changed for them to interdict IAF on the Indian side (militarily, diplomatically this would have been a huge problem).
The opinion about the conflict within the PA is that even though this fighting escalated beyond what was expected, the operation itself was a response to the Indian interdiction of Neelum Valley in the prior months. The fact that most of the combat in the area has been limited to Artillery and infantry units, the response (ill-considered I must say) was expected in kind to this action. Indians did a better job of PR than Pakistan any which way you look at it so there are lessons to be learned.

Secondly, not discussing the Kargil conflict is no different than what transpired after the 65 and 71 wars. Even the Siachen conflict was not openly discussed until the late 80s. There are certain aspects which cannot be openly discussed due to the currency of the information. I know for a fact that many of the lessons learned from the Kargil conflict have been integrated in the training and logistical aspects of the formations operating around the LoC up north. Now should there be an open debate about the Kargil conflict?, Yes! Absolutely! However the reality in Pakistan is a bit different so as you said, we will have to wait.

Most of the wars waged and fought in the sub-continent have been ill conceived and without consideration for the long term impact. There are indeed lessons to be learned here by the Pakistani nation, armed forces and government. I will not deny that.

On the economic front, I think most of Musharraf's detractors have cited the 9/11 episode as the reason for Pakistan's economic resurgence. I do not think this is the truth or at least the whole truth. The foundation of the economic upsurge has been the structural reforms in the economy. I talked to a banker at ABN AMRO Karachi and he told me that based on what has been done structurally, the economic activity (short of a war or a major natural disaster) will go on regardless of the aid etc. coming in from the US. This in itself is no mean feat.

 

[dabong1]

As far as for the culprits of Kargil, people got their due share. Major Generals became Lieuteneant Gens, Lt Gens made to Gens, Army chief became the President and the dumbo civilian PM was kicked out and never heard after that. Army put the Kargil under the carpet and assumed it never happened. Nobody was ever court marshalled, no enquiry held and nobody was held accountable and everybody lived happily ever after…COOL.

So guys, when the people/organisation directly involved in this operation are not interested in it and have long forgotten about it then why on earth we are banging are heads around here. So Let’s also assume it never happened and enjoy our lives.

spot on....

 

[dabong1]

Sanctions where on the civilian govts of NS and BB for pursuing the nuclear bomb.

 

[roadrunner]

Sanctions where on the civilian govts of NS and BB for pursuing the nuclear bomb.

Military sanctions were. Economic sanction were not. But some economic aid was not given. Therefore, the impact on the Pakistani economy of sanctions was negligible.

 

[blain2]

Sanctions where on the civilian govts of NS and BB for pursuing the nuclear bomb.

Yes and they ended when Musharraf took over right?

 

[x_man]

Xman,

Army did not want to involve the PAF for some very sound reasons. Involvement of PAF would have escalated the issue into a potential full-fledged war. The Indians used their AF (although IA has difference of opinion with the IAF about the efficacy of the IAF during this conflict) but only on their own side of the border. Even if PAF had been involved, the RoE would have to be drastically changed for them to interdict IAF on the Indian side (militarily, diplomatically this would have been a huge problem).
The opinion about the conflict within the PA is that even though this fighting escalated beyond what was expected, the operation itself was a response to the Indian interdiction of Neelum Valley in the prior months. The fact that most of the combat in the area has been limited to Artillery and infantry units, the response (ill-considered I must say) was expected in kind to this action. Indians did a better job of PR than Pakistan any which way you look at it so there are lessons to be learned.

Secondly, not discussing the Kargil conflict is no different than what transpired after the 65 and 71 wars. Even the Siachen conflict was not openly discussed until the late 80s. There are certain aspects which cannot be openly discussed due to the currency of the information. I know for a fact that many of the lessons learned from the Kargil conflict have been integrated in the training and logistical aspects of the formations operating around the LoC up north. Now should there be an open debate about the Kargil conflict?, Yes! Absolutely! However the reality in Pakistan is a bit different so as you said, we will have to wait.

Most of the wars waged and fought in the sub-continent have been ill conceived and without consideration for the long term impact. There are indeed lessons to be learned here by the Pakistani nation, armed forces and government. I will not deny that.

On the economic front, I think most of Musharraf's detractors have cited the 9/11 episode as the reason for Pakistan's economic resurgence. I do not think this is the truth or at least the whole truth. The foundation of the economic upsurge has been the structural reforms in the economy. I talked to a banker at ABN AMRO Karachi and he told me that based on what has been done structurally, the economic activity (short of a war or a major natural disaster) will go on regardless of the aid etc. coming in from the US. This in itself is no mean feat.

Very nicely written and I agree with most of your approach but I still have my reservations on few accounts. For PA, Kargil started at a very strong footing, they gained the ground and definitely had an edge and Indians were in trouble initially. But somewhere in between things started to go wrong for PA, IAF was called into action and it was in the later half where things went from bad to worst. Our guys were sandwiched from both the flanks when they had advanced quite forward, our artillery was not as effective at that far off ranges and they lacked logistic support as well and IA / IAF took the full advantage during this time and inflicted max casualties. IAF was regularly violating our airspace and the only Hi Level PAF radar (in that sector) at Thandiani was reporting multiple incursions everyday. At this stage, had PAF involved, not for the full fledge action but even just for the Show of Power, the outcome of this operation could have been different in terms of lesser PA casualties and boost the morale of our soldiers in the last stages of operation. During my interaction with so many PA officers who participated in the operation, a question still haunts them: Where was our Airforce when IAF was bombing us?? And I don’t have any answer for this.

As far as the lessons of Kargil are concerned, they might have been implemented at individual formation levels especially in northern areas, their SOPs amended and procedures re-written. But these are all at very basic and tactical level, till the time lessons and operations are not discussed at in detail at Strategic level at Staff College or Armed forces War College, nothing is going to change. Officers who attend these courses are hand picked after a very thorough selection; these guys are the future commanders and decision makers who will shape the Army. If at Major or Lt Col level they are not taught about this operation in detail and if nobody wants to discuss this sensitive issue, then I am afraid that when this lot will wear big ranks, same mistakes will be repeated. You can never call a puzzle ‘Complete’, even if single piece is missing: by putting this issue under the carpet and avoiding discussion on it in such informative times, we are depriving our future military leadership with such an important part of our military history.

 

[blain2]

Very nicely written and I agree with most of your approach but I still have my reservations on few accounts. For PA, Kargil started at a very strong footing, they gained the ground and definitely had an edge and Indians were in trouble initially. But somewhere in between things started to go wrong for PA, IAF was called into action and it was in the later half where things went from bad to worst. Our guys were sandwiched from both the flanks when they had advanced quite forward, our artillery was not as effective at that far off ranges and they lacked logistic support as well and IA / IAF took the full advantage during this time and inflicted max casualties. IAF was regularly violating our airspace and the only Hi Level PAF radar (in that sector) at Thandiani was reporting multiple incursions everyday. At this stage, had PAF involved, not for the full fledge action but even just for the Show of Power, the outcome of this operation could have been different in terms of lesser PA casualties and boost the morale of our soldiers in the last stages of operation. During my interaction with so many PA officers who participated in the operation, a question still haunts them: Where was our Airforce when IAF was bombing us?? And I don’t have any answer for this.

As far as the lessons of Kargil are concerned, they might have been implemented at individual formation levels especially in northern areas, their SOPs amended and procedures re-written. But these are all at very basic and tactical level, till the time lessons and operations are not discussed at in detail at Strategic level at Staff College or Armed forces War College, nothing is going to change. Officers who attend these courses are hand picked after a very thorough selection; these guys are the future commanders and decision makers who will shape the Army. If at Major or Lt Col level they are not taught about this operation in detail and if nobody wants to discuss this sensitive issue, then I am afraid that when this lot will wear big ranks, same mistakes will be repeated. You can never call a puzzle ‘Complete’, even if single piece is missing: by putting this issue under the carpet and avoiding discussion on it in such informative times, we are depriving our future military leadership with such an important part of our military history.

Ok this is where I split up based on what I know. The IAF very consciously NEVER came across the LoC and IB after the loss of two aircraft. The IAF claims that even the two aircraft lost across LoC initially were due to the turning radius accidentally spanning over to the Pakistani side. I can buy their point because their intent was not to escalate things across the border, rather to interdict Pakistani logistics and positions on their side of the LoC.

I also know that once IAF was inducted on their side of the border, PAF flew regular CAPs on our side. Neither side ventured across. The claim about intrusions being detected and going unchallenged is an unfounded slap in the face of the PAF because they did not need the GHQs permission to interdict these incursions. The PAF was flying just to avoid such situation (and based on what I know and have heard, this never happened). So I am really surprised by what you state knowing so otherwise.

What hurt some of the units was the fact that they were already across the LoC and PAF could not provide any support to them. This was the major gripe at the lower level but without understanding that had PAF gone across, it would have been full-fledge war with India. So my apologies to you but somehow the way you are describing things is not exactly clear. While the planning team can be faulted for not thinking through this, the PAF would be at fault for letting incursions across the LoC and IB go unchallenged (that is if I am to take your word for it, which with apologies, I do not).

I am in agreement with what you state about the need to have this stuff (Kargil) discussed at venues such as NDC and Quetta so we can learn from what we have done thus far militarily to achieve political goals.

 

[bhangra12345]

Yes and they ended when Musharraf took over right?

They ended due to 9/11 for you and jaswant-talbott discussions for India.