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Emergence of Afghanistan?
Azizullah Khan
The strategic agreements Afghanistan has signed with different states, especially with the U S and India, not only provide strategic and political safeguards for its emergence but also facilitate the process
The US designation of Afghanistan as its major non-Nato ally not only reinforces the essence of the US-Afghan Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA), signed early May, but also shows its commitment to the stability, or in other words, emergence of Afghanistan. The US is keen to make it amply clear to the neighbours of Afghanistan that it (Afghanistan) is not to be abandoned this time around, so they better give up hope to manoeuvre to their advantage its internal affairs at the cost of its stability and prosperity.
The designation followed by donors pledges of $ 16 billion should be added to several other facts, which point to the most probable emergence of Afghanistan. First is the sustainable structure and, thus far, effective working of the National Directorate of Security (NDS), the intelligence agency of Afghanistan. So far, its output is that its existence has begun to be felt in the region and no cracks or internal rifts in its structure are reported. In the modern complex and globalised world, an intelligence agency has a very significant role to play in the stability and security of any state. In matters of security, it is reckoned as the real powerhouse and brain of a state.
The NDS has been successfully repulsing some of the brutal/bloody attacks on government installations. It has captured and unmasked several key Taliban commanders who are now in its custody. More spectacular was the role it seemingly played in co-opting and re-socialising them and having their desertion ceremonies widely covered by media. The fleeing Taliban would talk to media about the way they, as per their claim, were misguided and exploited and their sheer patriotic sentiment impelled them to surrender before the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). They would spew poison against the ISI and Pakistan and would attribute all dirt to them. It is quite easy to discern from the videos, which are available on the internet, that the proverbial brain is behind the whole project. The idea behind the project is to enjoin upon fellow countrymen to hate the Taliban as proxies of neighbours, and for stability and prosperity look towards President Karzai and co.
Besides that, it claimed after the May 2, 2011 operation to have been the first to trace Osama bin Laden and tip off crucial information to the US, which led to his killing. No state dared to disprove the claim. Afghanistans realistic response to critical issues like cross-border terrorism and regional strategic game-play seems to be based on concrete policy input from this emerging institution. The NDS owes this brilliance to the fact that it has been working with the CIA for 10 long years in a state (Afghanistan) that has been the focal point of regional intelligence agencies for more than three decades. It will gain more strength as it has to work with the agency for the next ten years.
Moreover, the ANSF is all set to take operational control from foreign forces by 2014. It is fighting against the Taliban determinedly, and its credibility with the average Afghan is building rapidly. Those who are waiting for the ANSF to fall apart are always quick to warn that it will not be able to exert control over peripheral areas from where the insurgents could stage a forceful comeback and ignite a bloody civil war, which will only be a matter of time. After all, Pakistan, Turkey and even China among other developed states, have failed to control the peripheral areas. For Afghanistan having started from scratch, this should not be projected as a singularly huge issue.
By the end of 2014, Afghanistan will have a 350,000 strong security force, which will not be though in line with the standard counterinsurgency models but also not much less satisfactory. Afghan security forces are leading 40 percent of operations nationwide. These soldiers are better than we thought, says General John Allen, commander of the US forces in Afghanistan. The forces are also greatly helped by the growing unpopularity of the Taliban who want to backdate Afghanistan to 2000. For a 30 million population, a force consisting of 350,000 personnel is enough.
Third, the strategic agreements Afghanistan has signed with different states, especially with the US and India, not only provide strategic and political safeguards for its emergence but also facilitate the process. The major threat to the stability and prosperity of Afghanistan is not incompetence or inactiveness of Afghans but the destructive interference of the regional states. The emergence of Afghanistan is guaranteed if regional states are stopped from interfering in its internal affairs. Squarely this is the objective Afghanistans strategic agreements with the US and India are targeted at.
It is easy to discern from the tone and tenor of the Afghan-US SPA that its prime objective is to pass a strong message to Afghanistans neighbours that if you mess with Afghanistan you will be messing with the US. The designation of Afghanistan as a non-NATO ally reinforced this message. The Indo-Afghan strategic agreement has more to do with building the ANA and general development than withmessages to the regional states. These three states Afghanistan, the US and India are getting closer every day and their strategic flirting is all about the stabilisation of Afghanistan. Afghanistan has signed similar agreements with Germany, France, Italy, Britain and Australia.
There are certain other facts that support the notion of emergence of Afghanistan. Over the past 10 years, 4,000 schools have been built and 1,000,000 new teachers recruited. Today, girls make up 37 percent of the seven million students in primary and secondary schools. The co-educational American University is also working unhindered. Every year 52 Afghan students go to the US for higher study as Fulbright Scholars.
Afghanistans GDP has more than tripled in the last decade, averaging around nine percent a year, with notable gains in infrastructure, telecommunications, and financial and business services. There is every probability that Afghanistan is going to emerge as a normal and stable state. Will it be allowed to emerge is to be seen. With the US and the international community sincere in draining the swamp in the region, the onus is on the regional states to welcome the emergence of Afghanistan as a win-win situation for both the region and individual states. Instability in Afghanistan will feed terrorism, which is eating into the stability and prosperity of the region.
The writer is a freelance columnist. He can be reached at khetranazk@gmail.com
Azizullah Khan
The strategic agreements Afghanistan has signed with different states, especially with the U S and India, not only provide strategic and political safeguards for its emergence but also facilitate the process
The US designation of Afghanistan as its major non-Nato ally not only reinforces the essence of the US-Afghan Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA), signed early May, but also shows its commitment to the stability, or in other words, emergence of Afghanistan. The US is keen to make it amply clear to the neighbours of Afghanistan that it (Afghanistan) is not to be abandoned this time around, so they better give up hope to manoeuvre to their advantage its internal affairs at the cost of its stability and prosperity.
The designation followed by donors pledges of $ 16 billion should be added to several other facts, which point to the most probable emergence of Afghanistan. First is the sustainable structure and, thus far, effective working of the National Directorate of Security (NDS), the intelligence agency of Afghanistan. So far, its output is that its existence has begun to be felt in the region and no cracks or internal rifts in its structure are reported. In the modern complex and globalised world, an intelligence agency has a very significant role to play in the stability and security of any state. In matters of security, it is reckoned as the real powerhouse and brain of a state.
The NDS has been successfully repulsing some of the brutal/bloody attacks on government installations. It has captured and unmasked several key Taliban commanders who are now in its custody. More spectacular was the role it seemingly played in co-opting and re-socialising them and having their desertion ceremonies widely covered by media. The fleeing Taliban would talk to media about the way they, as per their claim, were misguided and exploited and their sheer patriotic sentiment impelled them to surrender before the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). They would spew poison against the ISI and Pakistan and would attribute all dirt to them. It is quite easy to discern from the videos, which are available on the internet, that the proverbial brain is behind the whole project. The idea behind the project is to enjoin upon fellow countrymen to hate the Taliban as proxies of neighbours, and for stability and prosperity look towards President Karzai and co.
Besides that, it claimed after the May 2, 2011 operation to have been the first to trace Osama bin Laden and tip off crucial information to the US, which led to his killing. No state dared to disprove the claim. Afghanistans realistic response to critical issues like cross-border terrorism and regional strategic game-play seems to be based on concrete policy input from this emerging institution. The NDS owes this brilliance to the fact that it has been working with the CIA for 10 long years in a state (Afghanistan) that has been the focal point of regional intelligence agencies for more than three decades. It will gain more strength as it has to work with the agency for the next ten years.
Moreover, the ANSF is all set to take operational control from foreign forces by 2014. It is fighting against the Taliban determinedly, and its credibility with the average Afghan is building rapidly. Those who are waiting for the ANSF to fall apart are always quick to warn that it will not be able to exert control over peripheral areas from where the insurgents could stage a forceful comeback and ignite a bloody civil war, which will only be a matter of time. After all, Pakistan, Turkey and even China among other developed states, have failed to control the peripheral areas. For Afghanistan having started from scratch, this should not be projected as a singularly huge issue.
By the end of 2014, Afghanistan will have a 350,000 strong security force, which will not be though in line with the standard counterinsurgency models but also not much less satisfactory. Afghan security forces are leading 40 percent of operations nationwide. These soldiers are better than we thought, says General John Allen, commander of the US forces in Afghanistan. The forces are also greatly helped by the growing unpopularity of the Taliban who want to backdate Afghanistan to 2000. For a 30 million population, a force consisting of 350,000 personnel is enough.
Third, the strategic agreements Afghanistan has signed with different states, especially with the US and India, not only provide strategic and political safeguards for its emergence but also facilitate the process. The major threat to the stability and prosperity of Afghanistan is not incompetence or inactiveness of Afghans but the destructive interference of the regional states. The emergence of Afghanistan is guaranteed if regional states are stopped from interfering in its internal affairs. Squarely this is the objective Afghanistans strategic agreements with the US and India are targeted at.
It is easy to discern from the tone and tenor of the Afghan-US SPA that its prime objective is to pass a strong message to Afghanistans neighbours that if you mess with Afghanistan you will be messing with the US. The designation of Afghanistan as a non-NATO ally reinforced this message. The Indo-Afghan strategic agreement has more to do with building the ANA and general development than withmessages to the regional states. These three states Afghanistan, the US and India are getting closer every day and their strategic flirting is all about the stabilisation of Afghanistan. Afghanistan has signed similar agreements with Germany, France, Italy, Britain and Australia.
There are certain other facts that support the notion of emergence of Afghanistan. Over the past 10 years, 4,000 schools have been built and 1,000,000 new teachers recruited. Today, girls make up 37 percent of the seven million students in primary and secondary schools. The co-educational American University is also working unhindered. Every year 52 Afghan students go to the US for higher study as Fulbright Scholars.
Afghanistans GDP has more than tripled in the last decade, averaging around nine percent a year, with notable gains in infrastructure, telecommunications, and financial and business services. There is every probability that Afghanistan is going to emerge as a normal and stable state. Will it be allowed to emerge is to be seen. With the US and the international community sincere in draining the swamp in the region, the onus is on the regional states to welcome the emergence of Afghanistan as a win-win situation for both the region and individual states. Instability in Afghanistan will feed terrorism, which is eating into the stability and prosperity of the region.
The writer is a freelance columnist. He can be reached at khetranazk@gmail.com
