Emboldened militants set sights on Peshawar

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Maqsad,

The way I see it, it isn't really a matter of "controlling the city" in the traditional sense, which we know they can't (at least for very long), but of being able to carry out raids and disrupt the peace the way Mangal Bagh did.

When that happens, and the residents of the city do not feel safe and secure anymore, the city will die, as capital and people flee. The Taliban need to be dealt with, militarily now, this has gone far enough. It doesn't look like this nation is going to give up its delusions of being able to use "dialog" with terrorists.

 

[maqsad]

So is anyone even doing anything about peshawar then? Are they installing CCTV cameras in trouble spots and govt installations, planning on UAV(non-CIA controlled) patrols over the city to monitor suspicious movements. Is someone planting listening devices, cultivating informers and expanding SIGINT/HUMINT budgets to get a grip on what is really going on in Peshawar? Are they making use of any technology invented after 1800? What exactly are the police and army doing besides walking around peshawar with bullseyes painted on themselves?

This should NOT be happening in an area which is supposed to be under full jurisdiction unless security is being managed by brain damaged retards or by people who have been paid money to do nothing and watch Peshawar fall. Something is seriously wrong with the competence and abilities of security forces I really cant accept this it seems so surreal like a bunch of goats were handed over a job and all they are doing is munching leaves while things go to hell.

 

[Tang0]

I've practically given up on just about anyone trying to confront this situation in a decisive manner.

In Vietnam the US purseued a tactical doctrine called search and destroy which is what I would like to see happening in FATA.

Use the Frontier Corps to seal and cut off the enemy then use the army to kill them.

Sir, if you will recall, the US COIN operations in Vietnam failed horribly. Furthermore, they resulted massive civilian casualties. Search and Destroy amount to: "Lets wander around until someone attacks us, and then try and trap and pound them in an open battle" It kills them, but does nothing to address the root causes of the insurrection.

 

[ejaz007]

COAS to call the shots in military action
Thursday, June 26, 2008
PM chairs high-level meeting; decides to stop hostile movement across border
By Asim Yasin

ISLAMABAD: In a major development on Wednesday, Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani gave his approval to a multi-pronged strategy to fight the menace of terrorism and extremism with the main thrust to counter this challenge by engaging the people through their elected representatives, tribal elders and local influential people.

However, the meeting decided that the Army chief will have the authority to determine the quantum, composition and positioning of the military effort. While the chief of the Army staff would supervise the application of the military, the Frontier Corps and the law enforcement agencies, the instruments of the governor and the chief minister in their respective jurisdictions for law and order, will fall under the command of the COAS for operations.

It also decided that focus will be to initiate swift operations based on actionable intelligence to eliminate terrorists and to stop hostile movement across the border for operations against the coalition forces in Afghanistan.

The PM nominated the governor NWFP as the chief coordinator for liaison with the federal government, the provincial government, important political leaders and the local military commanders.

The prime minister chaired a high-level meeting here at the PM House in which top military and civilian officials briefed him on the progress on the war on terror and the law and order situation in the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (Fata).

The meeting was attended by the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the DG ISI, NWFP Governor Owais Ahmed Ghani, NWFP Chief Minister Amir Haider Khan Hoti, Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Minister for Environment Hameedullah Jan Afridi, Minister for States and Frontier Regions Najmuddin Khan, Adviser to PM on National Security Mehmood Ali Durrani and Adviser to PM on Interior Rehman Malik.

The meeting focused on improving the law and order situation and establishing the writ of the government. The strategy of the Army operation, talks and other options for tackling across the border actions were also deliberated upon.

The meeting decided that Pakistan would not allow its territory to be used against other countries, especially Afghanistan, and under no circumstances would foreign troops be allowed to operate inside Pakistan.

The meeting decided that the governor, in consultation with the federal and provincial governments, would be responsible for planning, execution and coordination of a well-thought-out and comprehensive development plan for Fata.

All agreements with the tribes in Fata will be backed by a robust enforcement mechanism. It was decided that in case of non-compliance and violation of the agreement, the government would reserve the right to use force.

The meeting decided that the NWFP governor will also undertake all reconciliatory efforts, making sure that political agreements made with the tribes were based on mutual respect and trust drawing strength from the Riwaj (customs), expulsion of foreign fighters will be the responsibility of tribes and they will be held accountable for the presence as well as actions of all foreign fighters.

The tribes will also be responsible for stopping cross-border movement for militancy from their areas. However, this will require intimate coordination between the political and the military/security prongs of the effort.

It was decided that the tribes would not fight or target the Army, the Frontier Crops and other law enforcement agencies in their areas. They will be made to understand that the use of force by the military will be justified if the tribes acted contrary to their obligations.

The chief of the Army staff will supervise the application of the military effort. Although, the Frontier Corps and the law enforcement agencies will be the instruments of the governor and the chief minister in their respective jurisdictions for law and order, yet they will fall under the command of the COAS for military operations.

It was agreed that the Army chief will have the authority to determine the quantum, composition and positioning of the military effort. It was agreed that the principle of use of minimum force and avoidance of collateral damage would be kept in focus. The focus will be to initiate swift operations based on actionable intelligence to eliminate terrorists and to stop hostile movement across the border for operations against the coalition forces in Afghanistan, decide on the level of liaison, contact and cooperation with ISAF in Afghanistan and keep the government appropriately informed and keep the prime minister, the NWFP governor, defence minister and adviser interior informed about the operations.

It was also agreed that in addition to the political instrument, large-scale development, economic empowerment and selective use of military force would be the other prongs of the strategy.

It was decided that the broad objective of this strategy would be to bring about peace, reconciliation and normalcy in the country and to marginalise the hardcore terrorists, militants and criminal elements so that Pakistan’s national interest reigned supreme.

The meeting decided to ensure that the local tribal customs, traditions and Rivaj were respected by all representatives of the government, including the military and the law enforcement agencies, and to ensure that all foreign fighters were expelled from Pakistan’s territory.

 

[muse]

I am suprised that so many think that decisions announced are go step - in fact the most significant thing in these discussions and decisions is that Mr. gen. Kiyani is to be made a fall guy for this govt.

Mr. Musharraf had to take the blame for the lack of political support for military operations - now Mr. Kiyani will be used to attack Musharraf and in the process make Mr. Kiyani irrelevent.

You will have noticed that the Western press is already absolving the "democractic" government for it's inaction and priorities and is instead suggesting that ISI (no suprise here really) is to blame for Western failure and Pakistani inaction. This ground being prepared.

Perhaps someone can point out a single decision that can be thought of as being a signal that the problem is correctly understood -- after all, why have all these insurrgencies erupted?? What do they say is their aim??

Has anyone said their aim is to attract development funds or investments? or schools and transportation links??

I am saddened by the kinds of responses on this thread, it sugggests to me, that respondents are not thinking and are stuck in positions that cannot further the Pakistani state.

What is the essence of the problem?? How ought it be dealt with such that the interests of a unifed and effective Pakistan are furthered??

 

[fatman17]

I am suprised that so many think that decisions announced are go step - in fact the most significant thing in these discussions and decisions is that Mr. gen. Kiyani is to be made a fall guy for this govt.

good point but i think Gen. Kiyani is too smart a guy to fall into their trap. being the former head of the ISI, he knows how these politicians and bureaucrats operate.

my point is that the WoT is not their (politicians) cup of tea.

 

[muse]

We all know what these politicians cup of tea is -- but that leaves us where?

ISI or not, this war not winnable without the public opinion being on your side and that "public opinion" is in the back pocket of the politicians - the media being aboad is essential - and that WILL NOT happen -- their priority is to get Musharraf. By making Gen. Kiyani the fall guy, two pillars can be attacked together - the attack on Kiyani will be by association and the army will suffer even more - succor to the politicians - and of course "the awam".

From the pot into the frying pan -- if Kiyani fails, which he will because look exactly at how "success" has been defined - nothing radical, the tribals will stay tribals, will not be incorportaed, will not have the same political rights, notice the inclusion of "rivaj". the blood letting will continue at a set pace, tolerable, just barely, but tolerable - therefore no solution, no peace, no end to tribals, no development or investments - the tribalization of pakistan will continue as well.

 

[EagleEyes]

We need a leader like Bush to finish off these militants. Unlike Iraq or Afghanistan. This is very much do-able.

We need someone to address the public.

We need support.

 

[vish]

Is it me or does anybody else also see a high-IQ guerilla war?

 

[JK!]

Sir, if you will recall, the US COIN operations in Vietnam failed horribly. Furthermore, they resulted massive civilian casualties. Search and Destroy amount to: "Lets wander around until someone attacks us, and then try and trap and pound them in an open battle" It kills them, but does nothing to address the root causes of the insurrection.

I am aware that it failed but I prefer this option as a principle.

Use intelligence agents and special forces reconaisance to seek out the enemy then destroy it.

 

[araz]

Iam surprised athow casually the Government is taking all of this. On the one hand we have doom and gloom about Pro Baitullah fighters arming and preparing to take over Peshawar and on the Government side they are still holding meetings and talking about acccords and making COAS incharge of Army operations.
Ther are 3 permutations to this.
A) the locals are in Shinanigans with the Government and this is all a ploy to pressure uncle Sam into releasing the strings to the purse a bit more. If this is a case then it can have serious consequences as The Americans are likely to see the situation as getting out of hand and that may invite more localized bombings.
B) The Government is actually clueless and is in a panic. This would also be bad in general for the country as it would embolden the Taliban and invite more trouble.
C) The Army is advising the Government to play the game to bring the terrorists out of their hideouts into the open for full action and a good clearout. The COAS being made incharge may be a step in that direction. Ther is just one problem with that and that is the invitation to the army to interfere with the country's fate and may lead to another take over by the military.
Should we have a debate on these points please. Iwould love to know what your assessment of the ground situation is?
WaSalam
Araz

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

^^^ I tend to think its more of point B Araz.

If you look at the direction Kiyani has tried to steer the Army in (publicly), it is one of detachment from everything non-military, and he has quite clearly indicated that the Army will follow whatever policy the GoP decides.

If you were to take these attempts as sincere, and assume that this extended to FATA as well, then it becomes easier to understand why the Army withdrew from FATA, since the lot we elected, and Pakistanis in general, have been screaming about "operations against fellow Muslim brothers" and the need to try "dialog".

Now that the "dialog" has failed, after the false and temporaray "success" (reduction in suicide bombings and attacks on SF's), the civilian setup is finding it hard to adjust to the reality that the Taliban have done exactly what everyone was warning them would happen - they have regrouped and expanded.

The handing over of power to Kiyani may be step towards reality, that without military force and enforcement the Taliban will never stop their activities. However it is equally true that just military force alone will not solve the issue.

Setting up Tribal militias that will work in conjunction with the Military to drive away and find out Taliban fighters should be the way to go. The locals have to be involved in some way.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Setting up Tribal militias that will work in conjunction with the Military to drive away and find out Taliban fighters should be the way to go. The locals have to be involved in some way.

To add to that - the military does have to first create the space and conditions for local involvement and development projects by clearing out the Taliban from certain regions. Only then will attempts to initiate development projects and involve locals in "village defense committees, etc. work.

 

[HAIDER]

MINGORA, Pakistan, June 26 (APP/REUTERS): Suspected militants Thursday torched Pakistan Tourism Development Corporation (PTDC) motel and the adjacent servant quarters at the skiing resort of Malam Jabba in the picturesque Swat Valley besides damaging chairlifts. Police said that the miscreants equipped with heavy and automatic machine guns threw oil on four storey motel comprising 60 rooms and the adjacent 12 servant quarters that engulfed the entire building emitting black smoke that was visible from several kilometers. The militants also set ablaze local Met office at Malam Jabba. “Half of the hotel has been burned down,” said Swat's police chief, Waqif Khan, referring to the only hotel at the Malam Jabba ski resort. Khan said authorities had not been able to get to the resort to tackle the blaze or inspect the damage. “The area is not under our control, it's under the militants' control and no one can go there,” he said. But a militant spokesman denied setting the hotel on fire. “Our target is the security forces, we have nothing to do with the hotel,” said the spokesman, Muslim Khan. He said villagers in the area had appealed to his men to help them stop businessmen he referred to as “timber mafia” cutting trees on the mountain slopes. “There's a third element which does not want the peace accord to succeed, they don't want peace in the area,” he said, apparently referring to the log poachers. (Posted @ 12:30 PST)
- DAWN - Latest Stories; June 26, 2008

 

[araz]

^^^ I tend to think its more of point B Araz.

If you look at the direction Kiyani has tried to steer the Army in (publicly), it is one of detachment from everything non-military, and he has quite clearly indicated that the Army will follow whatever policy the GoP decides.

If you were to take these attempts as sincere, and assume that this extended to FATA as well, then it becomes easier to understand why the Army withdrew from FATA, since the lot we elected, and Pakistanis in general, have been screaming about "operations against fellow Muslim brothers" and the need to try "dialog".

Now that the "dialog" has failed, after the false and temporaray "success" (reduction in suicide bombings and attacks on SF's), the civilian setup is finding it hard to adjust to the reality that the Taliban have done exactly what everyone was warning them would happen - they have regrouped and expanded.

The handing over of power to Kiyani may be step towards reality, that without military force and enforcement the Taliban will never stop their activities. However it is equally true that just military force alone will not solve the issue.

Setting up Tribal militias that will work in conjunction with the Military to drive away and find out Taliban fighters should be the way to go. The locals have to be involved in some way.

Agno
Army's disentanglement could have been strategic as well. As far as I know Army has maintained its position and force in the area. So what has happenend which has emboldenend these people so much. If they are stupid enough to launch something on Peshawar, where they will face a corps. and PAF. is it not possible to encircle them from behind to block their exits and wipe them out.
I think this has more to do with the AID from Uncle Sam. If you notice all of a sudden all tranches of aid has started flowing in. Our unwillingness to completely control this area has something to do with the double game that is being played in this region.Although I think in the long run this will come back to haunt us all.
I am inclined to believe in A more than B.I think things arwe moving far too leisurely for my liking for this to be B Scenario
WaSalam
Araz