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Emboldened militants set sights on Peshawar

HAIDER

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PESHAWAR, June 24: The security situation in Peshawar is grim. Officials in the home department, who evaluate the situation on an almost daily basis, believe declaring a state of red alert is now only a matter of time.

With militants knocking at the gates of the capital of the NWFP, even the more circumspect government and police officials now grudgingly concede that Peshawar, too, could fall in a few months.

“Peshawar is in a state of siege and if Peshawar falls, the rest of the districts in the NWFP would fall like ninepins”, a worried senior government official told Dawn.

It would be a shame if Peshawar were to fall. It is not Swat. It is home to the headquarters of the 11th Corps, the paramilitary Frontier Corps, the Frontier Constabulary and the police.

Also, the optimists amongst us would like to believe that it would require an organised force to take over Peshawar. But the might of the militant groups operating around Peshawar from one to the other end is all too visible and alarming to ignore.

And if there were still any doubts left, that too have been washed away in recent days by the forays made into Peshawar by the ‘moral brigade’ of Mangal Bagh.

The kidnapping of Christians from one of the NWFP’s biggest teaching hospitals and the sighting of militants in the very heart of the military cantonment has made even the very laid-back sit up and take notice.

Police stations in rural Peshawar have long given up patrolling at night after a contingent was blown up by a rocket-propelled grenade and charred bodies of policemen were retrieved and buried without allowing their dear ones to see their faces for the last time.

So grim has the situation become that a committee that includes Chief Minister Hoti, Governor Owais and the Corps Commander Masood Aslam met on May 31 to discuss possible options for defending Peshawar.

The prime minister’s adviser on interior, Rehman A. Malik, landed in Peshawar on June 19 to discuss the situation. The two meetings, however, yielded no results.

The military, the paramilitary, the constabulary and the police are unable or unwilling to muster enough force to defend the city.

In some ways, this apparent apathy for Peshawar reflects the federal government’s lack of urgency to handle the situation in tribal regions and cope with a possible fallout of the peace agreements it is pursuing with tribal militants.

President Pervez Musharraf – whose dramatic volte face on the Taliban and alliance with the United States in 2001 largely contributed to the mess in the tribal region, has taken a back seat. The only person constitutionally mandated to

look after Fata, the president has since the Feb 18 elections more or less lost all interest in the borderlands.

Those who have worked with him closely on Fata say that except for occasional briefings, there have been no “brainstorming meetings’ on the subject with key players for months. The last such meeting took place before the general election, according to credible government officials, and they do not even remember the date!

The National Security Council – another of Musharraf’s controversial brainchild – met on Nov 8 last year to discuss, among other things, the situation in Fata.

The elected government, despite being in office for nearly three months now, has yet to find its feet.

Bogged down in the judicial crisis and grappling with economic woes, the coalition government seems to have lost sight of an issue that is exposing Pakistan’s sovereignty to great peril.

The parliament has yet to debate Pakistan’s participation in the “war on terror”, define its rules of engagement and, more important, prepare a comprehensive counter-insurgency strategy.

The initial calls for redefining the “war on terror” by the newly-elected political leadership have all evaporated into thin air. Fata, for all practical purposes, has gone to the back-burner.

In the absence of a national policy, the military appears to be in the process of reorienting its strategy. The bureaucracy, required to implement the state’s policy on the ground in Fata, remains as clueless as ever.

Little wonder then that administrators of the seven tribal regions and the regional coordination officers in their meeting with Mr Malik last week were unanimous in seeking policy directives.

Such is Pakistan’s tribal dilemma that Mr Rehman Malik, who, as the prime minister’s adviser, has nothing to do with Fata, has assumed its charge.

As a matter of fact, the interior ministry has no jurisdiction over Fata except for allocating funds to the Frontier Corps.

So in the given circumstances, it is the governor, the corps commander of Peshawar and sector commanders of security agencies, who are trying to give some direction to an otherwise directionless Fata policy.

The prevailing situation resembles that of a bus-load of drivers, with no one really at the steering l and the bus lurching from one side to the other.

What can be more ironical that those who are supposed to be in the driver’s seat are pretending to be passengers.

The June 11 bombing of an FC post on Mohmand borders with Afghanistan should have been a wake-up call. Sadly, this does not appear to be happening.

THE government came up with warnings on Tuesday of an army action to crush militancy in the vicinity of Peshawar.

The belated move came after the situation in the NWFP took an ominous turn over the past few days with the fall of Jandola, a town on the road to South Waziristan, to Baitullah Mehsud’s men, the relentless advance of Taliban-led militants towards Peshawar and the Swat scenario defying all fire-fighting attempts.

No less a person than Maulana Fazlur Rehman, the chief of JUI, saw it urgent to ring alarm bells, saying in a statement on Tuesday that the government must act to stop the Taliban march before it was too late.—Dawn report

Emboldened militants set sights on Peshawar -DAWN - Top Stories; June 25, 2008
 
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This is really bad news. What if Peshawar actually falls?
 
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Military operation in tribal areas ‘last option’: PM
Updated at: 2045 PST, Wednesday, June 25, 2008

ISLAMABAD: A high level meeting held here Wednesday under the chairmanship of Prime Minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani to review war against terrorism and law and order in NWFP decided that Chief of the Army Staff Ashfaq Pervez Kayani will be responsible for all military operations in tribal areas and to keep the government informed.

The meeting decided that the Governor NWFP in consultation with the Federal and provincial Governments, will remain responsible for planning, execution and coordination of a well thoughtout, comprehensive development plan in FATA.

The meeting unanimously agreed that elimination of terrorism and extremism is the gravest challenge to Pakistan's national security and to fight this menace a multi-pronged strategy will be followed.

The main thrust of Pakistan's policy to counter this challenge will be political engagement of the people through their elected representatives, tribal elders and local influentials.

The meeting was held to review progress on the war on terror and the law and order situation in NWFP. The meeting was attended by Governor NWFP, Owais Ahmed Ghani, Chief Minister Amir Haider Khan Hoti, Makhdoom Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Hameedullah Jan Afridi, Minister for Environment, Najamuddin Khan, Minister for SAFRON, Mahmud Ali Durrani, Advisor to PM on National Security, Rehman Malik, Advisor to PM on Interior, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Chief of Army Staff and DG ISI.

It was agreed that in addition to the political instrument, large scale development, economic empowerment and selective use of military force will be the other prongs of the strategy.

It was decided that broad objective of this strategy will be to bring about peace, reconciliation and normalcy of life in the country and marginalize the hard core terrorists, militants and criminal elements, so that Pakistan's national interest reigns supreme.

The meeting decided to ensure that local tribal customs, traditions and "Rivaj" are respected by all representatives of the government including the military and law enforcement agencies and ensure that all foreign fighters will be expelled from Pakistan's territory.

The meeting decided that Pakistan will not allow its territory to be used against other countries, especially Afghanistan and under no circumstances will foreign troops be allowed to operate inside Pakistan.

It was decided that while the Provincial governments will be responsible for their jurisdictions, the Governor NWFP will be the Chief Coordinator for all activity in FATA and maintain intimate liaison with the Federal Government, Provincial Government, important political leaders and the local Military commander.

All agreements with the tribes in FATA will be backed by a robust enforcement mechanism. It was decided in case of non-compliance and violation of the agreement, the government will reserve the right to use force.

The meeting decided that the Governor will also lead all reconciliatory efforts, ensuring that political agreements made with the tribes are based on mutual respect and trust, drawing strength from the Riwaj; expulsion of foreign fighters will be the responsibility of tribes and they will be held accountable for the presence as well as actions of all foreign fighters.

The tribes will also be responsible for stopping cross border movement for militancy across the border from their areas. However, this will require intimate coordination between the political and the military/security prongs of the effort.

It was decided that tribes will not fight or target the Army, Frontier Corps and other law enforcing agencies in their areas
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They will be made to understand that the use of force by the military will be justified if the tribes act contrary to their obligations.

It was decided that Chief of Army Staff will be the Principal for application of the military effort.

Although Frontier Corps NWFP and Law Enforcement Agencies will be the instruments of the Governor and Chief Minister in their respective jurisdiction for law and order, they will fall under his command for military operations.

It was agreed that the Army Chief will have the authority to decide on the quantum, composition and positioning of military effort
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these all steps good when we follow these.if same like past no benifit
 
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Survival of Baitullah Mehsud is big question mark...his constituency is never NATO target..wonder why..
But another reason is increasing poverty in the region and corrupt govt.
 
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I am going to merge this thread with the one started by Muse on a possible response to the threat.
 
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Some good decisions made by the GoP as mentioned in the article above - the important question is implementation, and how far?
 
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Military operation in tribal areas ‘last option’: PM

Muse,

Just a tip! So much color coding defeats the purpose of your highlighting. Color code what is really important and that too with the same color and that would do the trick. ;)

Back to the topic...don't be taken up by the PM's statement..there is only one option on the table and that is the military one. Some teeth need to be kicked in to bring Mehsud et-al in line. Don't expect the operation to go on too far if it does come.

Statements like "It was decided that tribes will not fight or target the Army, Frontier Corps and other law enforcing agencies in their areas." make no sense. How can the government decide that tribes will not fight the law enforcers? Going by the past precedents, this has not happened.

Every thing recently from the government is too little and too late. I do not see any fundamental change in the strategy from what the PML-Q was pursuing. Economic aid + military operations were going on before as well.
 
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I've practically given up on just about anyone trying to confront this situation in a decisive manner.

In Vietnam the US purseued a tactical doctrine called search and destroy which is what I would like to see happening in FATA.

Use the Frontier Corps to seal and cut off the enemy then use the army to kill them.
 
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This is completely ridiculous, the taliban can't take over Peshawar with a few hundred deluded teenagers armed with AK-47s. In order to control a city you have to commandeer almost every single government building and also take over the radio and TV stations. Any building taken over would be taken back within hours. I'm sure someone in the army must have a mappppp that leads to all these spots and can reach them when needed. I can't believe this topic is being discussed in such an "aunties chatting over biscuits and chai" manner in what is supposedly a military forum. :rofl:
 
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They managed to do it in Afghanistan so its plausible that they could do it to a city or at the very least be a daily threat
 
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They managed to do it in Afghanistan so its plausible that they could do it to a city or at the very least be a daily threat

JK,

They managed to do that in Afghanistan ' cause a powerful nation like Pakistan was backing them up, however we cannot deny the fact that with few hundreds of these warlord there must be some amercian backing. But I am confident that netiehr we are Afghan army nor Pakistan is peanuts like Afghanistan and Iraq.:pakistan:
 
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This is not Afghanistan back in the Taliban days, and even then it was impossible for the Taliban to take over Kabul without our advisers; you need military professionals for thing kind of thing.
 
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Lets look at the difference between Afghanistan in the 90s and Pakistan in the 00s. Afghanistan had already been carved up into little warlord controlled areas and the central Afghan government did not have a strong military. The pak military has tanks, AVs, planes, choppers and can concentrate a tremendous amount of military power in one spot very very quickly. A city like Peshavar or Quetta would never be allowed to be taken over, it would be counterattacked within hours at any strategic spot that fell.

P.S. Someone from the ISI needs to look into the background of all these journalists spreading these cracked out stories, are they working for anyone with ulterior motives?
 
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