Election results 2018

[war&peace]

@tps77 @Mugen @war&peace @IceCold @Path-Finder @PakSword @Arsalan @Farah Sohail @BHarwana @Zibago @Moonlight @Verve @El_Swordsmen @Hyprion @pkuser2k12 @LoveIcon @Salza

You won't find it in any news paper, lol... Following is PTI's current seat situation from watching a few News shows:

PTI has 116 + 8 independents making it essentially 124 strong on its own in direct NA seats. (2 more independents might still join PTI).

Add 33 women seats share as well as 5 minority seats makes PTI in NA >> 124+33+5= 162 .
Minus extra seats 4,1,1 = 6
162 - 6 = This leaves PTI 156 strong on its own

Add PMLQ, GDA, BAP, BNP and Ali Muhammad Mehr who has supported PTI>> 155 + 4 + 2 + 4 + 3 + 1 = 170
Even without MQM the number is 170 which is still just 2 shy of 172 count of first poll.

If MQM votes for PTI PM then the number easily reaches 176, fulfilling the clear first poll win required number of 172.

Even without MQM, PTI stands to win the second poll of simple majority with 170 votes of its allies.
Even with one or two seats plus or minus does not change the scenario much.
In Sha Allah, easily Wazir-e-Azam Imran Khan.

============================================​

In Punjab Assembly, PTI has won the favor of 24 independents out of 30 and PMLs 6 seats are also in the bag as well as 1 seat of BAP making its total count as 127 + 24 + 35 reserved + 6 + 1 = easily 190 plus...out of 371 total.

Punjab Assembly CM is definitely PTI's for the taking.

Well, I hope PTI gets the required numbers and forms the govt. But one thing this election has really highlighted is how fundamentally flawed design our system has. It needs to change... Really depressing for a person like me.

 

[Shane]

Well, I hope PTI gets the required numbers and forms the govt. But one thing this election has really highlighted is how fundamentally flawed design our system has. It needs to change... Really depressing for a person like me.

Our Parliamentary system sucks, no doubts about it.

 

[war&peace]

Our Parliamentary system sucks, no doubts about it.

This is really depressing for me...perhaps because I'm not really interested in this dirty politics..perhaps because I have spent most of my life abroad...perhaps it all new as I never took such a keen interest in Pakistani elections before..my better half is even more confused who knows very little about the home country of her father and her husband. It has been a week and still the picture is not clear..why?

 

[jupiter2007]

@tps77 @Mugen @war&peace @IceCold @Path-Finder @PakSword @Arsalan @Farah Sohail @BHarwana @Zibago @Moonlight @Verve @El_Swordsmen @Hyprion @pkuser2k12 @LoveIcon @Salza

You won't find it in any news paper, lol... Following is PTI's current seat situation from watching a few News shows:

PTI has 116 + 8 independents making it essentially 124 strong on its own in direct NA seats. (2 more independents might still join PTI).

Add 33 women seats share as well as 5 minority seats makes PTI in NA >> 124+33+5= 162 .
Minus extra seats 4,1,1 = 6
162 - 6 = This leaves PTI 156 strong on its own

Add PMLQ, GDA, BAP, BNP and Ali Muhammad Mehr who has supported PTI>> 155 + 4 + 2 + 4 + 3 + 1 = 170
Even without MQM the number is 170 which is still just 2 shy of 172 count of first poll.

If MQM votes for PTI PM then the number easily reaches 176, fulfilling the clear first poll win required number of 172.

Even without MQM, PTI stands to win the second poll of simple majority with 170 votes of its allies.
Even with one or two seats plus or minus does not change the scenario much.
In Sha Allah, easily Wazir-e-Azam Imran Khan.

============================================​

In Punjab Assembly, PTI has won the favor of 24 independents out of 30 and PMLs 6 seats are also in the bag as well as 1 seat of BAP making its total count as 127 + 24 + 35 reserved + 6 + 1 = easily 190 plus...out of 371 total.

Punjab Assembly CM is definitely PTI's for the taking.

Are you sure PTI will get 33 women seats? I thought it was 20 women seats and 5 minority seats. Total = 25 seats.

PTI 116 - 6 (extra seats) = 110

PTI 110 + 10 (independent) = total 120 NA seats.

Forming coalition government:
PTI 120
MQM 6
PMLQ 4
GDA 2
BAP 4
BNP 3
A.M Mehr 1
Total=140 + Reserve Seats = ???

Here is my count including 2 independent joined today.
Can you please recount your?

 

[Shane]

Are you sure PTI will get 33 women seats? I thought it was 20 women seats and 5 minority seats. Total = 25 seats.

PTI 116 - 6 (extra seats) = 110

PTI 110 + 10 (independent) = total 120 NA seats.

Forming coalition government:
PTI 120
MQM 6
PMLQ 4
GDA 2
BAP 4
BNP 3
A.M Mehr 1
Total=140 + Reserve Seats = ???

Here is my count including 2 independent joined today.
Can you please recount your?

I'm sure you have missed earlier posts about extra seats counting when calculating reserved seats. 33+5 was calculated on total seats won by PTI on election day and independents who have joined till now...it might increase if more than 8 independents join ....

...and this total seats calculation method for reserved seats is all as per constitution.

 

[jupiter2007]

I'm sure you have missed earlier posts about extra seats counting when calculating reserved seats. 33+5 was calculated on total seats won by PTI on election day and independents who have joined till now...it might increase if more than 8 independents join ....

...and this total seats calculation method for reserved seats is all as per constitution.

I am still confused about the allotment of these seats.

“60 are reserved for females and 10 for ethnic and religious minority groups; both sets of reserved seats use proportional representation with a 5% electoral threshold.”

 

[Shane]

I am still confused about the allotment of these seats.

“60 are reserved for females and 10 for ethnic and religious minority groups; both sets of reserved seats use proportional representation with a 5% electoral threshold.”

ISo am I not completely sure about the 33 number... I may stand corrected that I jumped the gun with just 8 independents joining... Pti stands to get 30 women seats depending on all 13 independents joining it. As per my info 12 have agreed and only PTM independent Candidate has not.

I missed 1 extra seats of Tahir sadiq and Parvaiz elahi is leaving both his NA seats for his provincial seat.

On the other hand, PTI allies will also get 1 or two reserved seats...but overall the number is more or less 170 without MQM.

 

[pzfz]

As per my info 12 have agreed and only PTM independent Candidate has not.

Stupid of the geniuses at PTI to give way to PTM-linked independents in North and South Waziristan. Could've easily been theirs. Wouldn't need MQMP now.

@tps77 @Mugen @war&peace @IceCold @Path-Finder @PakSword @Arsalan @Farah Sohail @BHarwana @Zibago @Moonlight @Verve @El_Swordsmen @Hyprion @pkuser2k12 @LoveIcon @Salza

You won't find it in any news paper, lol... Following is PTI's current seat situation from watching a few News shows:

PTI has 116 + 8 independents making it essentially 124 strong on its own in direct NA seats. (2 more independents might still join PTI).

How likely is PTI to win the 2 postponed seats? They get that they wouldn't need anyone.

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

Check my calculation I did 2 days back here:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/bap-at-bani-gala-bap-joins-pti.570464/#post-10678198
Now,

PTI and smaller parties:
116(PTI) + 4 (PMLQ) + 2 (GDA) + 6 (MQM) + 4 (BAP) + 13 (INDP) + 1 (AML) = 146

But candidates with multiple seats will reduced PTI and allied count to = 6 (PTI) + 2 (Ch. Elahi) = 138

Seats on Quota: [ in total there are 70 reserved seats]
PTI is expected to get 29 reserved seats i.e. 25 (women) + 4 (minorities) = 29
MQM-P = 1
BAP = 1
GDA + AML + PMLQ = 0

Grand Total of PTI led coliation = 135 + 29 + 1 = 169

Grand Opposition:
64 (PMLN) + 43 (PPP) + 13 (MMA) + 2 (BNP) + 1 (JWP) + 1 (ANP) = 124

Hamza Sharif will leave his MNA seat as well so Opposition final count will likely be = 123

Seats on Quota:
PMLN : 16
PPP : 10
BNP : 0
MMA : 3

Grand total of opposition = 123 + 16 + 10 + 0 + 3 = 152

*For every 4 NA seats, 1 NA reserved seat is allocated to a party. As per my info.
*Btw my calculation considers a scenario where all the 13 INDPs backs IK as PM. So far 6 NA INDPs have already joined PTI officially. 7 still remaining but PTI is claiming they have their support as well but don't have concrete evidence on it as yet. While not a single INDP NA has joined Opposition as per any news.
*Jehanghir Tareen claimed two days back that 5 are confirmed and they will get the support of atleast 10 to 11 indps so final pti led coalition count will be 167. If BNP votes for IK than count will be 169...not sure about JWP, they have 1 seat too.
*IK is set to become PM on 2nd voting. If BNP and JWP also vote for IK than he may well become PM on 1st round of voting itself but for that he also needs support of all the 13 INDPs.
*Also there is one technical issue, elections were held on 270 seats not 272 so final cut off number is 171, not 172 for first round of voting.

@Shane

 

[PakSword]

@tps77 @Mugen @war&peace @IceCold @Path-Finder @PakSword @Arsalan @Farah Sohail @BHarwana @Zibago @Moonlight @Verve @El_Swordsmen @Hyprion @pkuser2k12 @LoveIcon @Salza

You won't find it in any news paper, lol... Following is PTI's current seat situation from watching a few News shows:

PTI has 116 + 8 independents making it essentially 124 strong on its own in direct NA seats. (2 more independents might still join PTI).

Add 33 women seats share as well as 5 minority seats makes PTI in NA >> 124+33+5= 162 .
Minus extra seats 4,1,1 = 6
162 - 6 = This leaves PTI 156 strong on its own

Add PMLQ, GDA, BAP, BNP and Ali Muhammad Mehr who has supported PTI>> 155 + 4 + 2 + 4 + 3 + 1 = 170
Even without MQM the number is 170 which is still just 2 shy of 172 count of first poll.

If MQM votes for PTI PM then the number easily reaches 176, fulfilling the clear first poll win required number of 172.

Even without MQM, PTI stands to win the second poll of simple majority with 170 votes of its allies.
Even with one or two seats plus or minus does not change the scenario much.
In Sha Allah, easily Wazir-e-Azam Imran Khan.

============================================​

In Punjab Assembly, PTI has won the favor of 24 independents out of 30 and PMLs 6 seats are also in the bag as well as 1 seat of BAP making its total count as 127 + 24 + 35 reserved + 6 + 1 = easily 190 plus...out of 371 total.

Punjab Assembly CM is definitely PTI's for the taking.

Shane... What a great analysis... Hats off to you man. So we don't need MQM because sh Rasheed will win, another seat where elections were postponed, and then pti will win at least 3 out of 4 seats which Imran is leaving. It means that MQM will not be able to blackmail pti later . Wow

 

[Tps43]

@tps77 @Mugen @war&peace @IceCold @Path-Finder @PakSword @Arsalan @Farah Sohail @BHarwana @Zibago @Moonlight @Verve @El_Swordsmen @Hyprion @pkuser2k12 @LoveIcon @Salza

You won't find it in any news paper, lol... Following is PTI's current seat situation from watching a few News shows:

PTI has 116 + 8 independents making it essentially 124 strong on its own in direct NA seats. (2 more independents might still join PTI).

Add 33 women seats share as well as 5 minority seats makes PTI in NA >> 124+33+5= 162 .
Minus extra seats 4,1,1 = 6
162 - 6 = This leaves PTI 156 strong on its own

Add PMLQ, GDA, BAP, BNP and Ali Muhammad Mehr who has supported PTI>> 155 + 4 + 2 + 4 + 3 + 1 = 170
Even without MQM the number is 170 which is still just 2 shy of 172 count of first poll.

If MQM votes for PTI PM then the number easily reaches 176, fulfilling the clear first poll win required number of 172.

Even without MQM, PTI stands to win the second poll of simple majority with 170 votes of its allies.
Even with one or two seats plus or minus does not change the scenario much.
In Sha Allah, easily Wazir-e-Azam Imran Khan.

============================================​

In Punjab Assembly, PTI has won the favor of 24 independents out of 30 and PMLs 6 seats are also in the bag as well as 1 seat of BAP making its total count as 127 + 24 + 35 reserved + 6 + 1 = easily 190 plus...out of 371 total.

Punjab Assembly CM is definitely PTI's for the taking.

Correct but there are 8 seats of pml in pp

 

[Shane]

Check my calculation I did 2 days back here:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/bap-at-bani-gala-bap-joins-pti.570464/#post-10678198
Now,

PTI and smaller parties:
116(PTI) + 4 (PMLQ) + 2 (GDA) + 6 (MQM) + 4 (BAP) + 13 (INDP) + 1 (AML) = 146

But candidates with multiple seats will reduced PTI and allied count to = 6 (PTI) + 2 (Ch. Elahi) = 138

Seats on Quota: [ in total there are 70 reserved seats]
PTI is expected to get 29 reserved seats i.e. 25 (women) + 4 (minorities) = 29
MQM-P = 1
BAP = 1
GDA + AML + PMLQ = 0

Grand Total of PTI led coliation = 135 + 29 + 1 = 169

Grand Opposition:
64 (PMLN) + 43 (PPP) + 13 (MMA) + 2 (BNP) + 1 (JWP) + 1 (ANP) = 124

Hamza Sharif will leave his MNA seat as well so Opposition final count will likely be = 123

Seats on Quota:
PMLN : 16
PPP : 10
BNP : 0
MMA : 3

Grand total of opposition = 123 + 16 + 10 + 0 + 3 = 152

*For every 4 NA seats, 1 NA reserved seat is allocated to a party. As per my info.
*Btw my calculation considers a scenario where all the 13 INDPs backs IK as PM. So far 6 NA INDPs have already joined PTI officially. 7 still remaining but PTI is claiming they have their support as well but don't have concrete evidence on it as yet. While not a single INDP NA has joined Opposition as per any news.
*Jehanghir Tareen claimed two days back that 5 are confirmed and they will get the support of atleast 10 to 11 indps so final pti led coalition count will be 167. If BNP votes for IK than count will be 169...not sure about JWP, they have 1 seat too.
*IK is set to become PM on 2nd voting. If BNP and JWP also vote for IK than he may well become PM on 1st round of voting itself but for that he also needs support of all the 13 INDPs.
*Also there is one technical issue, elections were held on 270 seats not 272 so final cut off number is 171, not 172 for first round of voting.

@Shane

Lots of factors and numbers as well as ifs and buts involved. The number in NA remains around 170 (Plus or minus 1 or 2 seats approx even if my reserved calculation is off target) without MQM and even in calculating 170, I forgot to add AML seat which makes it 171 as pointed out by @PakSword .

A look at reserved seats:

Women seats 1=4.5 NA seats as stated by THE NEWS.
( if we use 4 seat formula then it exceeds 60 seats anyway as extra seats won by all parties candidates count in calculating reserved seats)

Don't know the MINORITY 10 seat formula and have simply distributed 10 seats among PTI, PMLN, PPP AND MMA.

PTI As per 4.5 seat formula: 116+12=128/4.5= 28.44 women seats + 5 MINORITY.


Reserved SEAT NUMBERS = 60 WOMEN (+10 MINORITY)

PTI = 29 (+5 MINORITY)
PMLQ = 1
BAP = 1
MQM = 1
BNP= 1
======================
PMLN =14 (+2 MINORITY) or 3
PPP = 10 (+2 MINORITY) or 2
MMA = 3 (+1 MINORITY) or 0

Shane... What a great analysis... Hats off to you man. So we don't need MQM because sh Rasheed will win, another seat where elections were postponed, and then pti will win at least 3 out of 4 seats which Imran is leaving. It means that MQM will not be able to blackmail pti later . Wow

JazakAllah for the appreciation and SRA seat I missed, so many numbers and ifs and buts to consider. MQM is a curse that sticks like a Kambal at first sight, lol... I still consider it a good tactic by PTI to contact MQM. Politics is also about not letting your opponents unite as much as possible and for as long as possible...After the by-elections, PTI would not need MQM entirely, in sha Allah.

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

Lots of factors and numbers as well as ifs and buts involved. The number in NA remains around 170 (Plus or minus 1 or 2 seats approx even if my reserved calculation is off target) without MQM and even in calculating 170, I forgot to add AML seat which makes it 171 as pointed out by @PakSword .

A look at reserved seats:

Women seats 1=4.5 NA seats as stated by THE NEWS.
( if we use 4 seat formula then it exceeds 60 seats anyway as extra seats won by all parties candidates count in calculating reserved seats)

Don't know the MINORITY 10 seat formula and have simply distributed 10 seats among PTI, PMLN, PPP AND MMA.

PTI As per 4.5 seat formula: 116+12=128/4.5= 28.44 women seats + 5 MINORITY.


Reserved SEAT NUMBERS = 60 WOMEN (+10 MINORITY)

PTI = 29 (+5 MINORITY)
PMLQ = 1
BAP = 1
MQM = 1
BNP= 1
======================
PMLN =14 (+2 MINORITY) or 3
PPP = 10 (+2 MINORITY) or 2
MMA = 3 (+1 MINORITY) or 0

BNP has just 2 seats so going with 4.5 NA seats formula for reserve seats(women), BNP won't be getting any.

What I have heard that, the formula is applied on total number of seats per party,without considering the seats which will be withdrawn by the candidates. If so, PTI is way ahead.

P.S. now the reports are PMLN/PPP are trying to get support of INDPs for Speaker/Deputy Speaker position by requesting them to vote for them even if they are voting PTI in center and CM. Fight for center and even PP/CM is already a lost for opposition since it will be done openly while speakers/deputy speaker voting is conducting in secrecy.

As far as MQM is concerned, I have also posted same in that thread that MQM need is not mandatory anymore with BAP support. And after By elections, PTI will further consolidates their position in center.

Dunya News‏Verified account @DunyaNews 13m13 minutes ago
#PK70 سے اے این پی کے خوشدل خان 187 ووٹوں سے کامیاب، دوبارہ گنتی میں پی ٹی آئی کے شاہ فرمان کو شکست۔۔ @PTIofficial @Shah_FarmanPTI #GeneralElections2018 #ElectionResults2018 #GE2018 #DunyaNews #DunyaVideos #ANP

--

What is this ? seems like PTI has lost one seat to ANP on recount. Is it KP provisional seat or NA ? I think its prov. one....*hopefully*

 

[Shane]

BNP has just 2 seats

BNP has 3 seats but I heard that it still qualifies for a single woman seat.

What I have heard that, the formula is applied on total number of seats per party,without considering the seats which will be withdrawn by the candidates. If so, PTI is way ahead.

As per constitution it is a confirmed fact that Total number of seats won by a party is considered including extra won seats by candidates; when calculating reserved seats only...but not in PM / CM election.

 

[ghazi52]

22 independents, PML-Q votes take PTI tally to 153 in Punjab

LAHORE: The Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf has entered the `final phase’ of forming its government in Punjab with assertions that the party has already got the support of required number of MPAs-elect. However, there is no discussion on the selection of a candidate for Punjab chief minister for now.

Besides eight elected members of Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), including an independent, the PTI claims 22 independents have formally joined the party, taking its tally to 153 in the directly-elected house of 297 members.

The 22 independents, who have joined the party, are: Raja Sagheer Ahmad (PP-7), Syed Saeedul Hassan (PP-46), Muhammad Ajmal Cheema (PP-97), Ghulam Rasool Sangha (PP-83), Ameer M Khan (PP-89), Saeed Akbar Khan (PP-90), Khawar Shah (PP-203), Muhammad Umer Farooq (PP-106), Faisal Hayat (PP-125), Hussain Jahanian Gardezi (PP-204), Sheikh Salman Naeem (PP-2017), Fida Hussain (PP-237), Shaukat Lalika (PP-238), Sardar Abdul Haye Dasti (PP-270), Basit Bukhari (PP-272), Khurram Leghari (PP-275), Tahir Mehmood Randhawa (PP-282), Syed Rafaqat Ali Gillani (PP-284), Muhammad Hanif Pitafi (PP-289), Taimoor Laali (PP-93), Rai Taimoor Bhatti (PP-124) and Mehr Aslam Bharwana (PP-127).

Sources say the PTI will bag 34 women seats and five minority seats against its 153 members and show up with 192 members in the complete house of 371 members.

Sources say party chairman Imran Khan on Wednesday remained busy in discussions about party policies for the first 30 days, 90 days and 100 days. “However, there was no discussion on the chief minister candidate as the party is weighing all options,” says a party leader.

Owing to indecision, the candidates for the coveted chief minister slot are increasing and lobbying with their credentials besides discrediting others on different grounds.

Candidates in the run are: Abdul Aleem Khan, Dr Yasmin Rashid, Fawad Chaudhry, Mian Aslam Iqbal, Mian Mahmoodur Rasheed and new entrant Yassir Humayun (PP-21).