Egyptian Armed Forces

[Frogman]

Egyptian Air Force F16

 

[Gomig-21]

 

[The SC]

Ambassador MK III

sintis?

 

[Gomig-21]

You know what these guys need?

A few of these...

MH60 Little Bird

Maybe some of these....

AH-6 like the Jordanians

Possibly some of these...

EC645 T2 by Airbus

Definitely several of these...

Blackhawks

Relying strictly on the Chinook for the most part of SF missions is ok, but these will give them more flexibility, speed and better mission oriented access and penetration.

 

[Gomig-21]

 

[Frogman]

Egyptian Air Defence Day celebration

DMC TV piece on Thunderbolt / Sa3ka

My very critical opinion on them

https://twitter.com/x/status/881172598939406336

Have to also plug my Blog. Hope you guys give it a read even though it's a bit sparse on content right now.

https://egyptdefreview.wordpress.com/

 

[The SC]

Egyptian Air Defence Day

 

[The SC]

The new headquarters of the Egyptian Ministry of Defense:
Octagon

 

[Gomig-21]

Have to also plug my Blog. Hope you guys give it a read even though it's a bit sparse on content right now.

https://egyptdefreview.wordpress.com/

Enjoyed the blog. Nice breakdown of what we've been in agreement with as far as creating a network-centric environment with the air force and how the MiG-35 threw that whole concept aside that we thought they were heading towards, or at least hoped they were. Another item to add to the incompatible variety a totally different platform creates besides commonality (and especially data linking which IFF between airframes themselves and not through ground control or AWACS is a major factor in that extremely critical linking), and information sharing where we don't really know how they can integrate a Russian system with 2 western ones is weapons. At least with the Rafale you can interchange many of the ground munitions without the need to worry much about the AMRAAM compatibility since the weapon of choice in that regard belongs to the Rafale, while the F-16 will never reach it's potential in that regard and there is no way to work its software to fire the MICA. So it's somewhat acceptable that the air to air will be mostly relegated to the Rafale, while the F-16 can share almost everything else, including pods like you mentioned. The problem then becomes dealing with an entire different weapons system with the MiGs. So it goes beyond just the connecting of platforms. They'll have to deal with an entirely different weapons package with the R-11, R-27, R-77 and whatever ground munitions will come with the MiGs.

50 fighters is not exactly a small number, either. 24 Rafales actually is. So perhaps there is a larger plan in the making? Maybe the Rafales were a sweetener on top of the FREMM, Mistrals & Gowinds deal to broker a chance at opening the door for Rafale? Maybe it was just a icening on the cake to make the French happy they finally got a deal for the Rafale (after 20+ years of not being able to) and knowing they wouldn't be able to increase that number in a substantial way, and the MICA component also played a factor in appeasing the EAF that with all that in mind, the shift is actually A LOT bigger than we think? If you're looking at potentially an 85+ ship of Ka-52's of both types, 50+/- MiG-35's....maybe that is just the beginning of what will eventually become a Russian equipment dominated air force to go with the largely dominated Russian SAM and surveillance system? Could we possibly be seeing a much larger shift back to the eastern block than we think? Could the need for a much larger BVR capability that can come in much greater numbers and at a much better cost be what they're thinking?

 

[The SC]

Enjoyed the blog. Nice breakdown of what we've been in agreement with as far as creating a network-centric environment with the air force and how the MiG-35 threw that whole concept aside that we thought they were heading towards, or at least hoped they were. Another item to add to the incompatible variety a totally different platform creates besides commonality (and especially data linking which IFF between airframes themselves and not through ground control or AWACS is a major factor in that extremely critical linking), and information sharing where we don't really know how they can integrate a Russian system with 2 western ones is weapons. At least with the Rafale you can interchange many of the ground munitions without the need to worry much about the AMRAAM compatibility since the weapon of choice in that regard belongs to the Rafale, while the F-16 will never reach it's potential in that regard and there is no way to work its software to fire the MICA. So it's somewhat acceptable that the air to air will be mostly relegated to the Rafale, while the F-16 can share almost everything else, including pods like you mentioned. The problem then becomes dealing with an entire different weapons system with the MiGs. So it goes beyond just the connecting of platforms. They'll have to deal with an entirely different weapons package with the R-11, R-27, R-77 and whatever ground munitions will come with the MiGs.

50 fighters is not exactly a small number, either. 24 Rafales actually is. So perhaps there is a larger plan in the making? Maybe the Rafales were a sweetener on top of the FREMM, Mistrals & Gowinds deal to broker a chance at opening the door for Rafale? Maybe it was just a icening on the cake to make the French happy they finally got a deal for the Rafale (after 20+ years of not being able to) and knowing they wouldn't be able to increase that number in a substantial way, and the MICA component also played a factor in appeasing the EAF that with all that in mind, the shift is actually A LOT bigger than we think? If you're looking at potentially an 85+ ship of Ka-52's of both types, 50+/- MiG-35's....maybe that is just the beginning of what will eventually become a Russian equipment dominated air force to go with the largely dominated Russian SAM and surveillance system? Could we possibly be seeing a much larger shift back to the eastern block than we think? Could the need for a much larger BVR capability that can come in much greater numbers and at a much better cost be what they're thinking?

Egypt will keep getting US weapons, because they are reliable, qualitative and quite good, and Egypt will get everything that the US refuses to give _with the Alibi of the supremacy of Usrael in the Middle East_, from Russia, that is what is going on now, long range BVR in quantity with the Mig-35s, the possible SU-35 for air superiority to replace the F-15s that were refused somehow, antiship missiles and other cruise missiles for The fighters as well as for the K-52s, all of this with participation in R&D, as for ToT, France provided the Gowind and who knows what else.. Also the Rafale will get to 36 and hopefully more when Funds will be available..So all in all it is very good for Egypt to diversify its weapons' sources and to play with both the Western doctrine as well as with the Eastern one, since it has that much unique experience with Both doctrines and their weapons..

 

[Gomig-21]

Egypt will keep getting US weapons, because they are reliable, qualitative and quite good,

Yes, for sure, why not? I would never give up $1.3 Billion in freebees when I have absolutely no reason to, either, and when much of that goes into keeping the current systems running and being maintained beyond Egypt's capabilities. So that will never cease as long as the political landscape doesn't change. But that $1.3B will never bring in anything beyond the standard stuff we've seen so far, that's a guarantee, my friend.

and Egypt will get everything that the US refuses to give _with the Alibi of the supremacy of Usrael in the Middle East_

You'll have to give us a bit more detail as to why you think Egypt would get everything the US refuses if it would be 100% influenced by Israel...and by the its own restrictions as well. Why would the US -- which is greatly influenced by protecting Israel -- be ok with a portion of, or all 230+ F-16's firing the AIM-120C and the AIM-9X? Or upgrade all other blocks with individual IFF sensors to match the new, 24 block 52's? Especially now with the door wide open with the Rafales and Russia quite possibly supplying the R-77 with the 50 MiG-35's? Why would they ever want the EAF to be even that much stronger in the air? It doesn't make any sense and that is why I don't think the 'Viper Upgrade' will ever be done to its fullest, at least not with the A/A weapons portion.

Also the Rafale will get to 36 and hopefully more when Funds will be available..

Even at 36 (which I highly doubt because they are just way too expensive, from single unit cost to weapons to cost per flight hour) it's still not that significant of a number and certainly now with the commitment to the MiG-35. Not to mention that only 8 of the 24 Rafales are single seat EM's, while the other 16 are DM's 2-seaters. I'm of the opinion that the Meteor will never see Egyptian Rafale pylons either. Sorry to say. If, and only IF they do agree on the next order of 12, and they're all EM's for air to air AND they come with the Meteor, then I'll believe that there is true change from the west because why would the French sell us a missile that is just as good or even better than anything Israel has? It's quite obvious why we're seeing most of these platforms heavily geared towards ground attack and anti-terrorism warfare and not a very strong air to air capability, as evidenced by the number of types.

.So all in all it is very good for Egypt to diversify its weapons' sources and to play with both the Western doctrine as well as with the Eastern one, since it has that much unique experience with Both doctrines and their weapons.

"Playing with both" is not a good thing, SC, bro. I realize conventional wisdom will tell you to get as much as you can from everywhere you can, and the more the better, then we'll make a soup and throw everything at them. The problem is that's known to not to be the best way to field an airforce, army or military in general, for that matter. It's a bad way to do it because you simply cannot integrate many of the components of a diversified weapons system, especially from "opposing" sources. In today's age of warfare, integration to form compatibility and information sharing is essential to success in the battlefield, especially in the air and against a competent enemy. I'll even go as far as to say that data linking is more important than stealth! The latter is a bonus because it doesn't work very well without the former. You need 'similar' systems so that you have cohesion. Cohesion makes you more aware of battlefield conditions as they develop and then you have the ability to conform to those changes so you're less prone to being surprised and defeated. The more integrated you are, the more situational awareness you have and the bigger and stronger you are. If you're disconnected, you've already lost the battle. Logistics alone will force you to separate systems.

Then you have the variety of weapons. The Russian weapons will only work with the Russian platforms and vice versa. That's a speed bump not an advantage.

Even though it's a very radical thought to think that maybe the goal is to make the Russian systems become the dominant ones since the weapons to those won't be restricted (we're yet to see if that's the case anyway), it's still daunting to think that they would end up with more of those than the current western aircraft they have and plan to keep.

 

[The SC]

Yes, for sure, why not? I would never give up $1.3 Billion in freebees when I have absolutely no reason to, either, and when much of that goes into keeping the current systems running and being maintained beyond Egypt's capabilities. So that will never cease as long as the political landscape doesn't change. But that $1.3B will never bring in anything beyond the standard stuff we've seen so far, that's a guarantee, my friend.

I agree, and I'll be a bit more optimistic with Trump.. I genuinely think there will be some upgrades to the F-16s and maybe some more modern missiles.. I count on this because of F-35 for Usrael.. you know what I mean!

You'll have to give us a bit more detail as to why you think Egypt would get everything the US refuses if it would be 100% influenced by Israel...and by the its own restrictions as well. Why would the US -- which is greatly influenced by protecting Israel -- be ok with a portion of, or all 230+ F-16's firing the AIM-120C and the AIM-9X? Or upgrade all other blocks with individual IFF sensors to match the new, 24 block 52's? Especially now with the door wide open with the Rafales and Russia quite possibly supplying the R-77 with the 50 MiG-35's? Why would they ever want the EAF to be even that much stronger in the air? It doesn't make any sense and that is why I don't think the 'Viper Upgrade' will ever be done to its fullest, at least not with the A/A weapons portion.

You did answer your questions partially, but you misunderstood the point I made.. I said that Egypt is getting everything refused by the US from other suppliers, Russia and France mainly.. like the long range BVRs, cruise missiles, AESA radar on Rafale, very modern avionics and EW suites from both Russia and France, many weapon systems from China and Easter European countries.. So How do you think Usrael can influence the US on the same components Egypt is already getting from somewhere else? It simply can not, and that is why I am more optimistic that EAF will get F-16 upgrades and weapons.. The aim 120 might come in too, just not the latest model, but it will still have ~ 100km range..

Even at 36 (which I highly doubt because they are just way too expensive, from single unit cost to weapons to cost per flight hour) it's still not that significant of a number and certainly now with the commitment to the MiG-35. Not to mention that only 8 of the 24 Rafales are single seat EM's, while the other 16 are DM's 2-seaters. I'm of the opinion that the Meteor will never see Egyptian Rafale pylons either. Sorry to say. If, and only IF they do agree on the next order of 12, and they're all EM's for air to air AND they come with the Meteor, then I'll believe that there is true change from the west because why would the French sell us a missile that is just as good or even better than anything Israel has? It's quite obvious why we're seeing most of these platforms heavily geared towards ground attack and anti-terrorism warfare and not a very strong air to air capability, as evidenced by the number of types.

I agree, and also think that the optional 12 will be procured, there are other BVR missiles cheaper than the French ones that Egypt wants to integrate on the Rafale, some are Chines and were integrated on the Mirage-2k.. but there is the question if France will allow that on the Rafale, like they just did with the Air launched version of the Brahmos with India..

"Playing with both" is not a good thing, SC, bro. I realize conventional wisdom will tell you to get as much as you can from everywhere you can, and the more the better, then we'll make a soup and throw everything at them. The problem is that's known to not to be the best way to field an airforce, army or military in general, for that matter. It's a bad way to do it because you simply cannot integrate many of the components of a diversified weapons system, especially from "opposing" sources. In today's age of warfare, integration to form compatibility and information sharing is essential to success in the battlefield, especially in the air and against a competent enemy. I'll even go as far as to say that data linking is more important than stealth! The latter is a bonus because it doesn't work very well without the former. You need 'similar' systems so that you have cohesion. Cohesion makes you more aware of battlefield conditions as they develop and then you have the ability to conform to those changes so you're less prone to being surprised and defeated. The more integrated you are, the more situational awareness you have and the bigger and stronger you are. If you're disconnected, you've already lost the battle. Logistics alone will force you to separate systems.

I agree with you again, but Egypt is not like any other nation, it has a special military characteristic, since it has started with Western airforce Tech (German tech for the air force), switched to the Eastern tech due to wars and limits from the West and then switched back to Western tech in 1979 with Camp David..As you can see all of this happened due to dire circumstances, So as long as there is no local production in the airforce and some form of self-reliance, the 2 army system is quite viable because it at least insures the supplies from one of the many sources in case of need.. the Egyptian own IADS will ensure that both Western and Eastern airforce systems will be able to communicate between them in real time.. short of a direct data link.. i have heard quite some time ago that Egypt had its own IFF systems!

Even though it's a very radical thought to think that maybe the goal is to make the Russian systems become the dominant ones since the weapons to those won't be restricted (we're yet to see if that's the case anyway), it's still daunting to think that they would end up with more of those than the current western aircraft they have and plan to keep.

Yes it is a radical thought, and Egypt will try first for some equilibrium from both sides, before taking such a drastic move that nothing in the horizon points to.. in the mean time I hope more emphasis will be put on local production and ToT.. anyway Egypt seems to be on the right track as far as the latter are concerned, albeit slowly till the economy improves from 2019 to 2020, the dates correspond to the self sufficiency in gas and the start of exports if need be.. export is not sure though, might be kept as reserve for future generations.... the other Mega projects also are taking much finances from the economy, but that will not last for more than 5 years as projected.. So there is a place for rational optimism..

 

[Frogman]

is weapons.

Yup completely agree. But I didn't want to over saturate people with jargon and weapon names. Perhaps a topic for another blog? "Egyptian Air Force: Logistics Go Much Deeper Than You Think"

So perhaps there is a larger plan in the making? Maybe the Rafales were a sweetener on top of the FREMM, Mistrals & Gowinds deal to broker a chance at opening the door for Rafale?

I like to think that the Rafale was a decision based on capability and need. Because if we look at it through that lens it makes it the only logical choice. It would also be odd because we were talking to them about the Raffy as early as 2011 IIRC.

If you're looking at potentially an 85+ ship of Ka-52's of both types, 50+/- MiG-35's....maybe that is just the beginning of what will eventually become a Russian equipment dominated air force to go with the largely dominated Russian SAM and surveillance system? Could we possibly be seeing a much larger shift back to the eastern block than we think? Could the need for a much larger BVR capability that can come in much greater numbers and at a much better cost be what they're thinking?

I believe we've gone too far one way to go the other. If we were say the Iraqi Armed Forces and we had to create a whole new force then I could maybe see priorities being changed. But we're not.

I also think it's quite naive (in my mind anyway) to ally yourself to Russia and predominantly use their kit in a uni-polar world dominated by the US with only the Chinese possibly competing. That and I think the US is by far the more rational actor and apart from getting our hands on some nice kit (which isn't for free) our relationship with Russia for the most part has been one way.

I have a blog post planned that should be quite controversial: "Egyptian Armed Forces: Why the US Should Keep Restrictions on Egypt"

In the meantime I hope you guys enjoy this: https://egyptdefreview.wordpress.co...operations-forces-a-thunderbolt-introduction/

 

[Gomig-21]

You did answer your questions partially, but you misunderstood the point I made.. I said that Egypt is getting everything refused by the US from other suppliers, Russia and France mainly.. like the long range BVRs, cruise missiles, AESA radar on Rafale, very modern avionics and EW suites from both Russia and France, many weapon systems from China and Easter European countries..

My bad. I did misunderstand your quote.

So How do you think Usrael can influence the US on the same components Egypt is already getting from somewhere else? It simply can not, and that is why I am more optimistic that EAF will get F-16 upgrades and weapons.. The aim 120 might come in too, just not the latest model, but it will still have ~ 100km range..

This is where I differ in the opinion with regards to the MICA vs the AIM-120. I think there's a rather large difference in the potency of the latter compared to the former, hence why it would be a substantially better AMRAAM, possibly rivaled by the Meteor. So it's not necessarily the same thing that Egypt is getting already by matching it with the AIM-120, hence my reluctance to think it will be supplied. If the French end up selling the Meteor to Egypt, then I think your theory certainly has some merit. Even once the R-77 (if it does come with the MiGs), that might be on par.

the 2 army system is quite viable because it at least insures the supplies from one of the many sources in case of need..

That's a good point. Many are considering the 500 T-90M's built in Egypt a done deal already.

So there is a place for rational optimism..

I like to think that the Rafale was a decision based on capability and need. Because if we look at it through that lens it makes it the only logical choice. It would also be odd because we were talking to them about the Raffy as early as 2011 IIRC.

We were, even earlier than 2011.

I also think it's quite naive (in my mind anyway) to ally yourself to Russia and predominantly use their kit in a uni-polar world dominated by the US with only the Chinese possibly competing. That and I think the US is by far the more rational actor and apart from getting our hands on some nice kit (which isn't for free) our relationship with Russia for the most part has been one way.

Need to empower the F-16 fleet and a much larger number of Rafales than 36. But then what happens if the enemy is using western equipment and is the favored by the western powers?

 

[The SC]

My bad. I did misunderstand your quote.



This is where I differ in the opinion with regards to the MICA vs the AIM-120. I think there's a rather large difference in the potency of the latter compared to the former, hence why it would be a substantially better AMRAAM, possibly rivaled by the Meteor. So it's not necessarily the same thing that Egypt is getting already by matching it with the AIM-120, hence my reluctance to think it will be supplied. If the French end up selling the Meteor to Egypt, then I think your theory certainly has some merit. Even once the R-77 (if it does come with the MiGs), that might be on par.



That's a good point. Many are considering the 500 T-90M's built in Egypt a done deal already.





We were, even earlier than 2011.



Need to empower the F-16 fleet and a much larger number of Rafales than 36. But then what happens if the enemy is using western equipment and is the favored by the western powers?

The best answer for all this mess, is self reliance which Egypt along with other Middle eastern nations are aiming for, together they will overcome many obstacles and achieve the self sufficiency( at least 50 to70% of their military needs) dream in a decade or so..I'll give it a bit more time and they will be there..

PS: There is no point of getting the Migs if R-77was not included, So i think it is included in the deal.. Egypt can not accept anything missing as with F-16s!