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Almost none of the eastern and western schools of strategic science, with its various branches, on top of which is military strategy, exist, but look at Egypt with great interest and caution. Regardless of considerations of ancient historical value, the rapidly growing population, the position in the Islamic and Arab world, and the cultural extensions of Cairo in the heart of the region's capitals; The geographical location of Egypt gave a double momentum to its weight in the sciences of strategy. Especially those sciences concerned with long-term complex "grand strategy", which aims to extend control and influence over geographical areas the size of "region".
Egypt has achieved qualitative leaps in the region based on its geographical location, position and historical legacy. First time; During the reign of Muhammad Ali, when the Egyptian role and influence grew, in 1832 the Anatolian plateau and the eastern Mediterranean reached the north, and the fourth waterfall in the south. And the second time was in the period (1967-1973) when Egypt achieved a revolution in the concepts of military strategy, and established with its victory in the October War and its crushing of the Israeli armored infantry formations (6-8) October 1973, for a new balance of power in the region that remained stable until 2011.
From these two times, the ethereal relationship between the independent Egyptian will, its geographical position and its relative weight between the various powers became clear. Continues or turns like a rebound ball towards the source of its launch.
2011 ... Entering the space of lack of control
The year 2011 came to witness Egypt, for the first time in its history, of a social movement under the auspices of the globalization system, in which the patriot who is linked to foreign agendas identifies, the good is the evil, and the factional collective. In it, Egypt faced the dangers of bombing and aggression from within, especially after the appropriate conditions were created for the terrorist Brotherhood to impose its agenda and the means to achieve it, starting from practicing pious methods, social penetration and political maneuver, to carrying arms in a social environment witnessing a sharp and ideal polarization to start severe and long-term civil wars.
As a result of the January 2011 events, Egypt lost about $ 100 billion, tourism revenues fell by nearly 80%, and the Egyptian Stock Exchange lost nearly $ 30 billion in the year 2011 alone. Foreign investments in Egypt, which reached $ 37 billion before January 2011, collapsed to reach zero in May of that year. Cash reserves collapsed from $ 36 billion in January 2011 to $ 15 billion in December 2012, and then reached the edge of danger in 2013.
In terms of the security situation, and with the police apparatus being exhausted in controlling the security situation, which is exacerbating and liquidity, as a result of the emergence of stereotypical and non-stereotypical threats, the security dangers increased, and when Egypt maintained armed forces capable of repelling any attempts of aggression, it became detonated from within and invested in the state of liquidity. Internally, the security forces bet the groups hostile to the Egyptian state and supervise sectarian engineering projects for the region. However, the cumulative experience of the Egyptian state, and the concerted political, diplomatic and intelligence efforts in a complementary framework, prevented the decade of crises from dissolving, and began to gradually contain them in a manner that takes into account the real capabilities of the Egyptian state and its development curve, and Cairo's legitimate aspirations in the process of "sustainable development" as it is the main strategy to defend The Egyptian nation is in a great historical merit that may not be repeated.
The flame ball of geopolitical change projects in Egypt has stopped. And she looked waiting, would she return to her source, or would she succeed in passing through Egypt to burn everything and everything?
Egypt and the management of change are in the matrix of the strong ... the transformation of the region's center of gravity
Here, the cumulative Egyptian experience seemed to be suffering the repercussions of the so-called “Arab Spring” waves, through several pillars, with the aim of stopping the destruction machine associated with expansionary projects and the collapse of several other central states, and its failure to monopolize coercive power in the face of the influence of terrorist organizations of the new cross-border generation, as well as With the aim of returning Egypt to the region's center of gravity, through:
Containing the Inside, Moving Forward in Establishing “Social Justice”
Despite the term "the Nile Valley" for the environment of "warlords" as a result of the cultural legacy of the Egyptian nation and its presence in the consciousness of Egyptians, the containment of the Egyptian interior through the consolidation of "social justice" by the Egyptian national administration after the fall of the terrorist Brotherhood's rule; The priority was to tackle it inside. In January 2014, the Ministry of Planning, Monitoring and Administrative Reform prepared a sustainable development strategy in accordance with Egypt's vision until 2030.
The strategic objectives of the social justice program were to achieve protection for the most vulnerable to ensure fair distribution and reduce class gaps, by supporting marginalized segments of society and achieving protection for the most vulnerable. The “Takaful and Karama” programs came to light, in which the number of beneficiaries reached 2.2 million families in mid-December 2017, including nearly 10 million beneficiaries. While the state pays solidarity pensions to about one and a half million families, which include about 4 million citizens, they are citizens who have no income and are unable to work and do not benefit from any insurance pensions.
Implementing an economic reform program that strengthens the integration of the Egyptian economy into the globalization system.
Egypt has begun to reform its economic program, especially after the growth indicators that reached 1.8% in 2011 collapsed, the collapse of foreign exchange reserves, and the flight of investments. Egypt launched its economic reform program in late 2016, which is based on 4 axes, liberalizing the exchange system to get rid of the shortage of foreign currency, adopting a monetary policy aimed at containing inflation, and implementing fiscal austerity measures to ensure that the public debt is placed on a sustainable path. And strengthening the social safety net.
The program succeeded in raising the foreign cash reserve to exceed the threshold of $ 45 billion in February 2020 compared to $ 16.5 billion in February 2016, withstanding the Corona pandemic and maintaining the flow of financial allocations to manage the crisis, which amounted to about 100 billion pounds. The poverty rate decreased in Egypt for the first time in 20 years. As well as fixing the credit rating agency, "Standard & Poor's" of Egypt at level B with a stable outlook. According to the United Nations Trade and Development Organization (UNCTAD) 2020, Egypt retained its position as the largest recipient of foreign direct investment in Africa for the year 2019, reaching $ 9 billion, an increase of 11%, despite the decline in foreign direct investment flows to North Africa to reach 14 billion Dollars.
Modernization of military capabilities, especially air and sea.
The Egyptian state’s plan began a comprehensive modernization of its armed forces in 2014, and the decision maker focused on this plan on several pillars:
Diversification of armament sources, to include the eastern and western international powers.
Transfer of manufacturing technology to a number of stealth frigates.
Localize military industries.
The creation of light military formations that keep pace with the diversity of theaters of confrontation with the stereotypical and non-typical threats “Rapid Intervention Forces + 888 Counter-Terrorism Units”.
From these four pillars, Egypt conducted a comprehensive modernization of its armed forces, especially the air force and navy. Where Egypt succeeded in contracting with the French side to supply all-mission “Rafale” fighters, which have superior capabilities in close air combat and suppression of air defenses and electronic warfare, and the two Mistral helicopter carriers that prompted the formation of two Egyptian fleets “North - South”, as well as stealth corvettes. The Gwind 2500, and the Farim stealth frigate, the most powerful destroyer of the Middle East, in addition to the Russian MiG-29 fighters, the S-300 air defense missile system, the German Type 209 attack submarines, and the German multi-role frigates "Miku 2000".
From this variety of weapons, Cairo assumed a distinguished military position in the region, as it was the first operator of helicopter carriers in the region, and the Egyptian navy moved from the navy to secure the coasts to a blue navy capable of voyaging the high seas, and the operational range of the Egyptian army expanded, while a great renaissance in facilities was accompanied The military, especially the strategic bases on the outskirts, “Mohamed Naguib + Berenice” to keep pace with this evolving curve in the quantity and quality of the Egyptian army’s strength, and to prove its capabilities in deterrence and attack at the same time.
Raise the level of combat competence by conducting maneuvers on land and sea theaters with friendly and allied countries.
Last November was the most active month for the Egyptian army’s training programs in decades. This month, the Egyptian army conducted maneuvers with each of (France, Britain, Sudan, Bahrain, Spain, Russia, and Jordan). The Egyptian maneuvers included land theaters in the Western Desert, in northern Sudan, and marine theaters in the eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea, and the Red Sea.
In order for the military leadership to keep pace with the modern fighting systems between the various schools, and the field branches of the armed forces are ready to carry out all the tasks assigned to them. This is in addition to the Egyptian unilateral maneuvers and exercises to simulate the procedures of the strategic conquest, the transfer of forces, and direct strikes in the depth of regular and atypical threats. Including the maneuvers of Hasm, Deterrence and Qader 2020.
Accelerate the transition to a regional energy trading hub.
The discovery of the Zohr field (30 trillion cubic feet) in 2015 marked a turning point in the Egyptian state’s plans to transform into a regional center for energy circulation, in addition to the continuation of the war in Syria without any party being able to impose its full agenda on gas pipelines and their flow paths to the European market.
Egypt declared its sufficiency of gas in 2018, and Egyptian exports of liquefied gas reached $ 1.5 billion in 2019, in addition to the presence of the oil and gas sector in Egypt within the strategy of sustainable development and its provisions 2030. This prompted the Egyptian state to pay great attention to the infrastructure facilities for the industry. Energy, such as refineries, liquefaction and storage facilities, in addition to the acquisition of surplus gas from both Cyprus and Israel, according to major deals signed in conjunction with the Egyptian declaration of self-sufficiency in gas, in order to liquefy natural gas and flow it in ships to Europe and sell it at a higher price than the prices of gas units. Natural. The Egyptian Observatory dealt with in two separate papers the Egyptian tactics used to monopolize the region’s energy exchange center.
Formulating strategic alliances and partnerships in the maritime and land theaters, based on economic partnership rather than national and ideological ties.
In this regard, the Egyptian administration realized that the geopolitical change brought about by the revolution of the 30th of June 2013 must be cemented through the inauguration of strategic partnerships and alliances based on mutual benefit and economic partnership rather than national considerations, in reference to the Egyptian decision-maker’s awareness of its relative weight in the region, And the essence of the international system and the system of globalization. Egypt appeared to coordinate measures with Cyprus and Greece in November 2014, to launch a strategic alliance in the Eastern Mediterranean, which became a model for fruitful regional cooperation and a nucleus for a multi-economic partnership that was translated into the regional organization of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum that included (Egypt - Cyprus - Greece - Palestine - Jordan) - Israel - Italy), with the United States, France and the UAE as observers.
Cairo becomes the center for drafting alliances in the eastern Mediterranean, in a way that does not threaten international peace and security. As within the general framework of this organization, two deals were made to transport gas to Egypt from Israel and Cyprus, and to inaugurate two gas pipelines, the first is ISD Med between Israel, Cyprus and Greece, and the second between Cyprus and Egypt. In addition to the demarcation of the maritime borders between Egypt, Cyprus and Greece and the signing of agreements for the electrical connection between the trio.
Egypt launched the new alliance with Iraq and Jordan. It is an alliance based on integration, laying foundations for stability in the troubled eastern flank of the Arab region, and working to stop terrorist activity from spilling over from Iraqi fields to North Africa. The coalition is likely to strengthen Egypt's position as a regional hub for energy circulation by connecting Egyptian ports and oil facilities to the Iraqi oil pipeline coming from Basra.
Back to Africa
Between the suspension of its membership in 2013, and its presidency of the African Union in 2019, the Egyptian return to Africa was dramatically dramatic. As Egypt returned from bilateral relations with the countries of the continent, and mediation to resolve conflicts, as in Libya and Sudan. And its intense activity to mobilize African support in the issue of the Renaissance Dam and to dismantle the fake Ethiopian narrative about the reality of the dam, the circumstances of its construction and its objectives, as well as Egypt's preference for the political path through diplomatic channels to reach a fair, comprehensive and binding agreement that takes into account all the interests of the countries concerned.
Egyptian investments in Africa increased to exceed the $ 10 billion barrier. The Egyptian interest in Africa comes as it is a strategic depth for the Egyptian state, in addition to curbing the activities hostile to the regional forces opposing the Egyptian state’s project and its regional entitlement.
Egypt is currently implementing huge projects in Africa for the first time in the history of relations between the two sides, foremost of which is the "Julius Nyerere" hydroelectric dam and station in Tanzania. In Ghana, EgyptAir and the government of Ghana signed in late October a memorandum of understanding to establish a Ghanaian national airline with a joint Egyptian-Ghanaian investment. In Sudan, the Egyptian government has already started operating the electrical interconnection line with Khartoum, to supply it with 70 megawatts, to be increased in the future to 300 megawatts, and there is already an electrical connection between Egypt and Libya.
Strengthening partnerships with technologically advanced countries in East Asia (Japan + Singapore).
Since assuming the presidency, President El-Sisi has been keen on strengthening relations between Egypt and Japan, and this was evident in the mutual visits between the two parties over the past years, which reached 3 visits that President Sisi made to Tokyo so far, to enhance the strategic dialogue and consolidate areas of cooperation in the economy, education and technology. President Al-Sisi visited Singapore in August 2015, and the visit was successful and resulted in the establishment of an integrated station for the production of water and electricity in Sokhna. The President of Singapore also visited Cairo in the following year 2016, and his visit culminated in the signing of 3 memoranda of understanding for cooperation between the Economic Zone for the development of the Suez Canal Corridor and the Singapore Ports Authority.
Containing centers of influence opposing the Egyptian project in the West, Europe and the United States.
The Muslim Brotherhood terrorist group is one of the largest religious extremist groups with branches in nearly every region of the world. The Brotherhood is present in Europe and the United States in a way that makes these two regions centers of gravity for the organization that has woven its social and economic network for decades, as well as opening channels with the intelligence services in some Western countries, which allowed the group to be employed in political accommodation and conflict in the Middle East.
Whereas these centers of gravity for the terrorist group are the real mind for managing the Brotherhood's agenda; The group and the leaders of its international organization tended to promote the narrative of “victimhood”, falsify the Egyptian reality and pressure the governments of Western countries to weaken their relations with Egypt, in addition to starting a major psychological and media war aimed at the moral assassination of the Egyptian people and demolishing their confidence in the institutions of their homeland.
The Egyptian administration tended to deepen its relations with the Western bloc, and it was a completely dramatic transformation, as Egypt’s return to Africa. At the time the European Union issued a draft resolution banning the supply of arms to Egypt, Europe became an armament source for the Egyptian army, accounting for 40% of the total arms imports to Egypt during the period 2014- 2020.
And the old continent ranked third in President El-Sisi's visits during his first term. Efforts of active Egyptian diplomacy resulted in a strategic partnership with France, and a German understanding that would expand to include the regions of Libya, the eastern Mediterranean, and the Palestinian issue. While the Egyptian activity in Europe moved from deepening relations with the countries of the continent, to confronting and exposing the Brotherhood’s organization plans in it.
Egypt has succeeded in becoming a country of weight in the region, able to draw red lines in the field of coordinates of its vital field, sea and land. At a time when Egypt was fighting the repercussions of the so-called Arab Spring waves within its borders, it has now become an effective figure in the new security architecture of the region. This is when the Egyptian administration adopted the "smart power" method in managing its relationships and challenges, which is a mixture between soft and hard power and intelligence tools. However, the change that Cairo brought about in the power matrix in 2013 seemed to offer Egypt a regional benefit that depends only on mastering the reading of the variables in a crumbling global order whose uncertainty has become its main feature.
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