People power in Egypt
Photo: AFP
Syed Fattahul Alim
The spark of people power that erupted into flames in small Tunisia is now raging through the Middle East. The biggest of the Arab countries, Egypt, is at the moment boiling. The regime of Hosni Mubarak is witnessing the worst challenge to its existence during its nearly three decades of rule with an iron first.
Tens of thousands of people, an overwhelming proportion of whom comprises the youth, are on the streets and fighting pitched battle with police in Cairo, Alexandria, Ismailia, Suez as well as in other parts of the country. Egypt's venerated armed forces that the 82-year-old president had deployed to quell the mass upheaval and safeguard him and his authoritarian rule, are unwilling to crush the uprising using brute power. On the other hand, they are reported to have been fraternising with the crowds demanding the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak.
And Mubarak, in his desperate bid to hold on to power, has already dismissed his cabinet of ministers, appointed his first ever deputy Mr. Omar Suleiman, the erstwhile chief of Intelligence, as vice president and Ahmed Shafik, the former aviation minister, as prime minister.
But the choice of Suleiman, known for his Israeli connections, as a successor, if you will, has hardly been a prudent one, if only for his history of extreme loyalty to the president. He even saved Mubarak once from an assassination attempt. Given the mood of the protesters on the street, any second attempt by him to save the president from the present predicament may turn out to be counterproductive.
But will the Egyptian people, who have come out in thousands on the street since January 22 in the wake of Tunisian dictator Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali's flight from Tunis amid a similar popular upsurge on January 14, be placated by such cosmetic changes with the actual rein of power still in the president's hand?
Will they trust Mubarak and allow him to continue in power, forgetting the absolute poverty under which about half of the country's 84 million people are living? Will they forgive the ruling elite, which is corrupt to the marrow, to continue plundering the nation's resources like before? Will the youthful members of the new generation under 30 leave the street without having any assurance for job and the promise of a better life in the future?
Mubarak's offer of an olive branch in terms of more democracy and economic improvements as assured in his Friday's televised address to the nation would hardly have any appeal to the angry masses out there. Because the Egyptians are left with little faith in him, considering the history of his rule, which is tarnished by denial of democracy, gagging of press freedom and suppression of any criticism or opposition to his rule.
Strangely though, in the face of the wrath of the masses, the embattled president is still trying to put up a bold face as he warned the public against any chaos. That means he is still betting on his continued grip on the state of affairs in spite of the popular revolt that has shaken his edifice of power at its base.
The question that naturally arises is where is the president drawing his strength and arrogance from in the midst of such a deep political crisis that the nation is going through and the challenge thrown to his authority?
The explanation lies in his government's staunchest international ally, the US and its attitude towards Egypt at this moment. Is the US yet ready to get rid of Mubarak?
From the US president Barack Obama's televised address, it appears, though, he has advised Mubarak not to use brute force to quash the popular revolt, but take "concrete steps" to advance political reform within Egypt. He, however, stopped short of defining what such steps should be. The still bigger question is: given the volatile atmosphere all around and his (Mubarak's) authority teetering on the edge, is Mubarak at all in a position to take up any long-term reform measure and also deliver it?
The fact of the matter is that the US does not want to see a post-Mubarak power vacuum in Egypt, which it considers as its Middle Eastern anchor of stability, and a bulwark of peace with Israel -- a peace deal that was reached in 1979 when President Anwar Sa'adat, Mubarak's predecessor, was in office.
Since then the US has been counting on Mubarak's secular, dictatorial though, regime as the pivot of its Middle Eastern policy. Now that the crowd outside the president's house is fuming for a decisive change, it has become totally dicey, who would succeed Mubarak.
If the US pushes too hard for a change, like it did in the case of Iran in 1979, or Philippine in 1986, that may prove to be equally fatal for US's interest in the region. In that eventuality, the spectre of Muslim Brotherhood, the only effective opposition Egypt is left with after all the oppression and the work of the hated secret police, will get the upper hand.
But can a façade of secularism that is devoid of democracy and freedom, be a real safeguard against extremism in the region? Was not the police state of Tunisia's Ben Ali a secular one? Are Yemen and Algeria are also not governed by secular dictators?
In fact, these dictators have been denying their countrymen freedom and democracy for long with the support of USA, on the hollow pretext of fighting Islamic extremism. Meanwhile, these corrupt, police states have been fleecing the people, depriving them of all kinds of freedom.
Now the people of Egypt have woken up. They are not going to accept any window dressing in the name of political reform in Egypt with the same old Mubarak or any of his alter ego continuing in office.
The Egyptian people have suffered too long. Their march to freedom must not be stopped halfway.
Syed Fattahul Alim is a senior journalist.