MirageBlue
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I do really hope India makes a follow up order too. It will help take the price of the Rafale down and would make it easier and encourage other countries that already purchase it to make follow up orders.
It will happen, but it will take a couple of years at least for sure. Right now, given the Covid crisis, the focus is on dealing with it and restoring some order of normalcy. And the IAF is still in the process of accepting Rafales from Dassault. Once they are fully integrated with the IAF and there is some experience built up with the type, a follow on order is likely.
I don't expect the IAF's MRFA contest for 114 fighters to lead to anything. So 36 or more Rafales will very likely be it.