Egypt economy, is there a way out?

[Battle of Kursk]

This is a discussion I had intended to open for a while, but RL issues and recent events were in the way. It is no secret that Egypt's economy is in a stark condition, though many may not be aware how much.
I am going to post a few articles on the subject, most from before the revolution, though since not much has changed economically they are still valid.
I am afraid that Egypt's economy may collapse coming years and I am concerned for the millions of it's people.

I hope a discussion may be created on what should Egypt do in the mid and long term to get out of this situation. Persoanly I hope to take a back seat in the discussion as I am sure there are many here who are much more knowledgeable about economics, Egypt or both.

AlJazeera: Analysis: Egypt's faltering economy Last Modified: 15 Jun 2013 16:14

Doha, Qatar - As Egyptians end their first year living under the rule of a democratically elected president, economic pressures, rather than political challenges, seem to the most serious threat to the new president and the democratic transformation of the country.

A Pew survey of Egyptian public opinion released in May found out that a solid 66 percent of Egyptians preferred democracy to any other form of government, and 51 percent were willing to live under a democratic government even if they risk instability.

Yet, when asked if they preferred "strong democracy over a strong economy", their loyalties shifted. Only 45 percent agreed, while 52 percent said that living in a good economy was more important to them to living in a good democracy.

The same survey highlighted Egyptians' growing economic pains and worries. Only 29 percent of those surveyed said they expected their economic situation to improve next year, a result down from 50 percent in 2002. Some 42 percent thought their economic situation would worsen next year, up from 20 percent last year. And, a strong 76 percent majority believed the national economic situation was "bad".

Official numbers

Such worries reflect a struggling economy that is yet to recover from multiple setbacks it faced in the aftermath of the revolution that toppled Hosni Mubarak in early 2011. They also reflect a tough economic first year for Mohamed Morsi, Egypt's first elected president, and a difficult year ahead looming.

Official numbers seem to deepen such fears. A preliminary government budget for the next financial year, which starts on July 1, seems to show the Egyptian economy and government plans suffering from the same old problems, such as a shortage of funding for new projects and the rising costs of public salaries, loans, and the budget deficit.

The three items together absorb around 80 percent of public spending, leaving very little to spend on reviving Egypt's deteriorating public health and education sectors, or to invest in new projects to help energise Egypt's sluggish economy. In fact, the draft budget only lists 63.7bn Egyptian pounds (about $9.1bn) for new public investment next year.

In addition, the draft budget projects a 9.6 percent deficit next year, down from a projected 10.7 percent this year. Although some economists Al Jazeera spoke to doubt the authenticity of such numbers and the government's ability to cut the deficit, the numbers still show how much pressure is being put on the government to borrow more money from local banks and from abroad next year.

The projected budget says that, if the government can cut the deficit to only $28bn next year, it still cannot borrow the full amount from local banks without hurting liquidity - and it must borrow $9-10bn from abroad, adding to a rising $43.8bn foreign debt, up from $34.4bn a year ago.

That foreign debt adds to a staggering $198bn debt to local banks. The draft budget also expects Egypt to spend about $26bn on debt service next year, up from a projected $19.8bn this year. The widening deficit and rising cost of debt are alarming to many Egyptians, as the country struggles to attract foreign investors, achieve higher levels of economic growth, and protect the local currency - which lost more than 10 percent of its value against the dollar in the past six months.

Egypt economy sputters in democratic era

Another problem is unemployment, which is estimated by the government to be standing at 13 percent. A government plan for social and economic development in the new financial year published by the ministry of planning says the government hopes to create 800,000 in the forthcoming year. Still, it will not be able to reduce the number of unemployed - 3.5 million - as an estimated 700,000-750,000 new job seekers join Egypt's job market every year.

Moreover, the same plan states that 21.4 percent of the 27.3 million strong workforce are temporary workers, and at least 46.5 percent of those employees work in the unofficial sector without contracts. Furthermore, 67 percent has no health insurance. No wonder - rising employment, widespread poverty (with 25 percent living under the poverty line), and poor working conditions were all factors behind the January 2011 revolution that toppled the Mubarak regime.

With this sluggish economy, expected to grow at just 2.6 percent this year and at 3.8 percent next year - down from 5.1 percent growth in the year before revolution, not much could not be expected to improve the living standards of the majority of the Egyptian people, raising fears that more economic and political trouble is expected down the road to express growing public frustration with Morsi and his economic policies.

Morsi's economic plan

"Economic achievements during the last period did not match our much higher hopes. Sometimes winds blow in the wrong direction," economics professor Khalid Abdel Hamid, told Al Jazeera.

Abdel Hamid, a member of the economic committee at the ruling Freedom and Justice Party, said Morsi faced daunting economic problems "that have been accumulating for decades and during the transitional period ruled by the military". Such problems include widespread corruption, flight of foreign capital after the revolution - and under SCAF's watch - political unrest, low economic growth, a rising deficit, and huge expectations.

He says fixing an economic situation like this requires time, and Morsi has been able to make some progress, such as cracking down on the subsidised fuel black market, increasing wheat production to help cut Egypt's dependency on imported wheat, supporting farmers by forgiving old debts, expanding public welfare for the poorest, and visiting several foreign countries, such as China, Italy, and Brazil, to help attract foreign investment.

Reem Abd ElHaliem, a professor of economics at Cairo University, told Al Jazeera that Morsi should be given credit for what he achieved economically in the past year.

She believes that Morsi has worked hard to look for alternative sources of funding, such as issuing Sukuks, or Islamic bonds, which were recently approved by parliament. She also commended Morsi for seeking to cut fuel subsidies without hurting the lower classes. A new card distribution system is under development and may be introduced this autumn. Morsi also resisted pressure to cut spending on social programmes that benefit the poor.

The draft budget shows that Morsi intends to increase spending on public salaries by about $4.3bn to help reduce the negative impact of rising inflation on the six million public employees. Morsi is also planning to increase spending on subsidies and social support programs by $3.24bn. Benefiting programmes include development of poor villages in Upper Egypt, increasing support for farmers, public transportation, and housing for low income people.

Solution

However, Abd ElHaliem also thinks Morsi has been slow in reacting to some economic problems, such as depleting foreign reserves and the increasing pressure on the Egyptian pound. She believes that if Morsi reacted faster to the problem he could have managed a more orderly currency devaluation. She also thinks structural transformation of the Egyptian economy is needed in order to achieve needed growth.

Mohammed Mossallem, an economic researcher at Cairo based Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, thinks Morsi has not done much to help the Egyptian economy. He says Morsi has changed three finance ministers in one year, does not seem to have a clear economic policy, and has focused too much on borrowing from abroad and on attracting foreign investments - without preparing the country or the economy for absorbing such investments into pro-growth activities.

Mossallem thinks government should take more ownership of the economy at this moment, be more transparent with people about the dire economic situation, direct more funding to productive sectors instead of subsidies, and to focus on developing small and medium size enterprises - which employ an estimated 75 percent of Egypt's labour force - offering them more funding, instead of following Mubarak-era policies to attract large foreign businesses.

Analysts who spoke to Al Jazeera seem to agree that Morsi has to be more transparent with the people about the economic challenges ahead, and that he should work on uniting the country politically behind a clear agenda to transform the country's economy and make the needed structural changes.

Abdel Hamid, the FJP's economist, seems to agree: "Full openness and transparency about the status of the economy are still lacking. We have to open so people can understand the size of the problem, and cooperate accordingly."

Abdel Hamid also said that the party was hoping to hold a national conference on the economy to involve all groups in discussing the economic situation and building a united vision - but "no time has been set for the conference yet".

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/06/2013615122844106819.html

 

[Battle of Kursk]

Egypt 'suffering worst economic crisis since 1930s'

Former finance minister and economist say Egypt is in dire predicament as foreign investment and tourism collapse

Egypt is suffering its worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, a former finance minister of the country and one of its leading economists have warned.

In terms of its devastating effect on Egypt's poorest, the country's current economic predicament is at its most dire since the 1930s, Galal Amin, professor of economics at the American University in Cairo, and Samir Radwan, finance minister in the months after Egypt's 2011 uprising, said in separate interviews with the Guardian.

Since the fall of Hosni Mubarak in 2011, Egypt has experienced a drastic fall in both foreign investment and tourism revenues, followed by a 60% drop in foreign exchange reserves, a 3% drop in growth, and a rapid devaluation of the Egyptian pound. All this has led to mushrooming food prices, ballooning unemployment and a shortage of fuel and cooking gas – causing Egypt's worst crisis, said Amin, "without fear of making a mistake, since the 30s".

"Nobody cares about the poor now," Amin said. During comparable crises in the late 1960s, the mid-70s and the late 80s, Amin and Radwan argued that Egypt's poorest were variously shielded from absolute hardship either by state subsidies, overseas aid, comparatively low unemployment, or by remittances from expatriates in the Gulf states. But now one in four young Egyptians is unemployed, household remittances are low, and there is a shortage of subsidised goods.

"You are talking about nearly half of the population being in a state of poverty," said Radwan, a development economist. "Either in absolute poverty or near-poor, meaning that with any [economic] shock, like with inflation, they will fall under the poverty line." Currently, 25.2% of Egyptians are below the poverty line, with 23.7% hovering just above it, according to figures supplied by the Egyptian government.

For most Egyptians, rising food prices are the most critical problem. Some goods have doubled in price since last autumn – catastrophic for the quarter of families that already spend 50% of their income on food.

For Hoda Goma, a Cairo architect, the situation is having a serious effect on her two eight-year-old sons. "They're getting worse at school," she said. "They're getting ill more often. They have these black patches under their eyes and their teeth have got worse."

It is down to their diet, Goma explained. She cannot afford to feed them what they need. Six months ago she spent half her salary on food. Now she says it is closer to four-fifths – not because she is earning less, but because rising food prices show no sign of slowing down.

"Prices are on fire," said grocer Walid Ali. Just last week, Ali would buy a kilo of mandarins for four Egyptian pounds – or 40 British pence – from wholesalers, and sell them for six (60 British pence). "Now I buy them for six and sell them for eight."

As a result, consumers are either buying less, or not buying at all. "It's impossible," said Ali. "I've lost half my customers. People can only afford to buy basic foods." At his two-storey market in central Cairo, the top floor is now entirely empty. Neighbours said all stall-holders on the upper level had been forced to close in recent months.

Inflated food prices are not a new phenomenon in a country that is the world's biggest importer of wheat, where the population has long risen more rapidly than production, and where up to half of the produce rots in the heat on the way to market. But the recent rate of inflation has been significantly raised by Egypt's disastrous economic predicament.

Most problematically, the value of the Egyptian pound has fallen by 12% against the dollar since December. For two years, Egypt's central bank had used its foreign currency reserves to arrest the slide – but with those reserves having shrunk by around 60% since 2011, the bank had to abandon the tactic last winter. As a result, the pound's value has this year fallen further and faster. In turn, it has become much more expensive to import foreign goods – catastrophic for a country that buys in 60% of its wheat, and whose farmers also often rely on imported fertiliser, fuel and animal feed.

"They have a serious crisis on their hands," said the EU's envoy to Egypt, James Moran, who noted that Egypt's foreign reserves had fallen from $36bn (£24bn) three years ago to $14.4bn last month. "This gives you less than three months' import coverage – and in an import-dependent economy, this is quite dangerous."

"We are suffering," said Ali Eissa, the chairman of Nahdet Misr, a farm company which grows potatoes and oranges on 3,000 acres across Egypt. "It's impacted most of our fertilisers, machines, tractors – all their prices have dramatically increased."

The pound's devaluation has also made it harder for the Egyptian government to import fuel. The state has subsidised diesel (along with goods such as bread, cooking gas and fertiliser) since the dictatorship of Gamal Abdel Nasser. But with those subsidies now accounting for over a fifth of the Egyptian budget, and with a budget deficit of 13%, the state cannot afford to support the population at the level it once did. As a result, there are daily shortages at pumps across Egypt, long queues – and, at times, fatal fights.

"Last month, we couldn't find any diesel," said Eissa, who was consequently forced to turn to the black market, where he says fuel prices are between 40% and 80% higher than their legal rate. "The worst thing is that most of the black market quantities are mixed with water – which is breaking a lot of our machines. We have to change the filter, get them maintained, stop the irrigation, stop the tractors."

In turn, farmers must sell their crops for higher prices – and with the government also under pressure to cut subsidies, food is therefore increasingly unaffordable for the poorest Egyptians. "The rich can take care of themselves," said Karim Abadir, professor of econometrics at Imperial College London, and a co-founder of the Free Egyptians, an opposition party. "But the poor of Egypt are really, really poor. Their daily diet is just bread. First of all, that's a terrible diet. Secondly, they're not even going to afford that. And the government has nothing in place to provide them with a safety net when they have to raise prices and cut subsidies."

So far, Mohamed Morsi's Islamist-led government has attempted to keep Egypt afloat with short-term measures. It has accepted loans and grants worth more than $5bn from Gulf states such as Qatar, and interest-free fuel handouts from neighbouring Libya. Domestically, it has avoided major economic reforms that might cause short-term upheaval – perhaps fearing bread riots similar to those experienced in 1977, when the then dictator Anwar Sadat first temporarily tinkered with subsidies. Instead, Morsi has focused mainly on meaningless initiatives such as tax rises on peripheral imports such as shrimp and nuts, or closing shops early at night to save electricity. Morsi has also attempted to legalise the controversial sukuk, an Islamist form of government bond that may help to bring in more short-term cash.

"There is no vision, there is no vision whatsoever," said Radwan of the government's current economic ministers. The Egyptian finance ministry did not make any official available for interview.

Along with Amin, Radwan said the initial route out of the crisis was obvious. The government needed to take the lead in restoring calm to the polarised Egyptian street and its tumultuous political sphere. National stability would give investors the confidence to reopen the 1,500 factories that have closed since 2011, and encourage tourists – whose spending was once worth $1bn a month to the Egyptian economy – to return.

"Restore stability, restore tourism, and restore confidence from investors," summarised Amin. Such a process would raise employment, and so lift millions from poverty, gradually allowing the government to end food subsidies for those who would no longer need them.

"It has to be spread over a period of time otherwise the social consequences would be very dire," said Amin. "As you succeed in raising the income of the poor, you [can] reduce the subsidy."

The delivery of a much-delayed $4.8bn International Monetary Fund loan – and a further $12bn in contingent loans from the EU and elsewhere – depends on Egypt's agreement to such reforms. Without the loan, foreign investment – which has fallen by 56% since 2011 – is also unlikely to return.

Radwan said: "I regard the IMF loan, which I was the first to negotiate, and it was turned down, as the key. Not because of the sum. But because if you sign with the IMF, it means you have a sound financial and monetary programme to get you out of the crisis."

Not everyone agrees. Amin sees the loan as too small to make much difference in itself. Instead, he suggests Egypt should enact the reforms the IMF suggests without taking on the debt itself. "What is the use of this $4.8bn sum?" Amin asked. "It is a big sum, but it still less than what tourism used to bring you. The conclusion is that the loan from the IMF is neither necessary nor sufficient. Not necessary because by attacking the real problems, you can dispense with it – and not sufficient, because if you don't attack the real problems it doesn't help you very much. It's only short-term relief."

Whatever happens, while politicians prevaricate, ordinary Egyptians are being ever more compromised by the soaring cost of living. Mostafa, a 30-year-old driver, started dealing hashish late last year when his wife became pregnant, realising his monthly earnings of 1,500 Egyptian pounds, or £150, would not be enough to feed his enlarged family. "Without the drug dealing, I would only have 300 Egyptian pounds [£30] to pay for everything after rent and food," Mostafa said. "How would I be able to support my new children?"

Economists often predict a so-called "revolution of the hungry", should conditions worsen further. But for Radwan, Egypt is already at that stage: robbery rose 350% in 2012 as Egyptians took wealth redistribution into their own hands. "The elite sits there saying the revolt of the hungry is coming," said Radwan. "What do you mean it's coming? Are you waiting for a violent, bloody destruction of the Bastille? It's already there."

Egypt 'suffering worst economic crisis since 1930s' | World news | The Guardian

 

[Battle of Kursk]

Egypt's gathering economic gloom leaves millions facing food shortages

Levels of food insecurity in Egypt have risen significantly over the past three years, according to a report by the World Food Programme (WFP) and Egypt's official statistical agency, Capmas. In 2011, about 13.7 million Egyptians – 17% of the population – experienced food insecurity, compared with 14% in 2009.

Although findings are based on 2011 statistics, the report's authors say the picture is increasingly desperate for the most vulnerable households, many of which spend more than half of their income on food.

"As the economic situation grows gloomier and more people have been forced into poverty, we can only imagine that this number has grown," says Abeer Etefa, a spokeswoman for the WFP's Middle East and north Africa office.

Inflated food prices are not a new phenomenon in a country where population growth has long outstripped production. However, as Egypt faces its worst economic crisis since the 1930s, the rate of inflation has risen sharply, with serious implications for consumers.

The price of many items has doubled since last autumn. Vegetables, along with bread and cereals, are subject to the highest increases, rising by 3.4% and 2.3% respectively between February and March, driven by a 5.5% increase in the price of wheat flour and 4.3% rise in the cost of rice.

Volume of produce is not the problem. In many markets, stalls are packed with vegetables, and food remains plentiful for those who can afford it. "It's not a matter of availability," says Etefa. "It's a question of access. Many families no longer have the economic means to put food on the table for their families."

The WFP found that more than half of children under the age of five were anaemic, based on research in nine of the 27 governorates. Nationwide, about 31% of children under five experienced stunted growth in 2011. As well as its physical effect, stunting harms brain development. "The first 1,000 days of a child's life are crucial. Give them the right food at the time and they will reap the benefits later in life. But if they miss out, they will never replenish that lost growth, no matter how much they eat in the years that follow," says Etefa.

Although Egypt's economy has foundered since the 2011 revolution, experts say the growing nutrition crisis has deeper roots. "This increase in food insecurity, malnutrition and poverty rates has not happened overnight, during this year or even during the past year," says WFP Egypt director Gian Pietro Bordignon. "People's inability to have adequate and nutritious food is largely attributed to rising poverty rates and a succession of crises from 2005."

Throughout these periods, government-funded food subsidies shielded poor people from the most immediate effects of price rises. Today, many see access to bread as a right, and more than 68 million Egyptians receive monthly food rations, costing the government roughly £3bn a year.

But the ration card system has limited targeting. At least 19% of the country's most vulnerable households do not have access to rations, in many cases because they are not formally registered with the state.

Egypt's gathering economic gloom leaves millions facing food shortages | Louisa Loveluck | Global development | guardian.co.uk

 

[Battle of Kursk]

Last one for now, this one is post revolution. It does raises some hopes:

Egypt upheaval mars hopes of end to economic woes

AFP - Egypt's shattered economy was boosted this week by Gulf allies pledging billions of dollars in aid, but analysts say this simply buys time as political turmoil deepens its economic malaise.

The millions of ordinary Egyptians angered by record high unemployment, soaring inflation and chronic fuel shortages who took to the streets two weeks ago demanding Mohamed Morsi's resignation blamed him for letting the economy nosedive.

Fuel supplies have returned, after panic buying before the military coup on July 3, and three Gulf monarchies relieved at the toppling of Egypt's Islamist president have pledged $12 billion in assistance.

But dire security problems and political instability mean a return of the tourists and foreign investment that Egypt so desperately needs are a distant prospect.

And progress remains stalled on negotiations with the International Monetary Fund on a $4.8-billion loan.

"Even if they do agree on the loan, I just don't believe that we're going to see a flood of investment," said financial analyst Andrew Cunningham.

"The country has been in turmoil since 2011, there's just been a military coup and they're shooting people on the streets. This is hardly an attractive prospect."

Gulf pledges of financial assistance are a lifeline for the new administration.

Foreign reserves have fallen by almost 60 percent since the revolution that toppled Hosni Mubarak in February 2011, to 14.9 billion dollars in June -- the equivalent of just three months of imports.

Kuwait offered $4 billion in cash, loans and fuel, with Saudi Arabia contributing $5 billion and the United Arab Emirates another $3 billion.

But Cunningham warned that, while welcome, the cash injection was not a long-term solution.

"We're still talking plasters and bandages. The challenges are enormous and they are structural. Egypt's economy has been badly managed for decades, and it didn't improve under Morsi."

Illustrating the severity of the problem, the latest data from Egypt's official statistics agency shows that unemployment jumped after Mubarak's ouster and then rose steadily over the next two years to reach a record 13.2 percent in March.

Problems Egypt's new rulers will have to confront if they are to reverse the inexorable decline include corruption, poor education, a bloated public sector, low productivity and unsustainable food and fuel subsidies.

"They need to fix the entire system," said Ahmed Galal, head of the Eco Research Forum.

"It's going to be difficult to do, but it's doable, with a lot of dedication," he told AFP, adding that stability and appointing a competent government will be crucial if Egypt's economic woes are to be resolved.

This week Hazem al-Beblawi, a former finance minister and accomplished economist with long experience of working with international financial institutions, was named prime minister.

But his task of forming a national unity government was immediately complicated by Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood rejecting any offer of jobs in the new cabinet.

US intelligence firm Stratfor believes the instability goes far beyond political divisions.

It said growing poverty and joblessness, "arguably among the root causes of the uprising in 2011", was part of a "swelling trend" that motivated the recent protests.

"It is possible that the new government will find a level of stability that the increasingly isolated Muslim Brotherhood leadership was unable to sustain in the face of rising disputes with the former coalition partners and an obstructionist judiciary," it said.

But "mounting demographic and economic pressures" mean the country's new leaders will face economic challenges "that become incrementally more difficult with each passing year".

Egypt is the Arab world's most populous nation, and has witnessed an astonishing 50 percent rise in its population since 1990.

Last year it hit 84 million, "one in four of whom live below the poverty line and only survive thanks to subsidised wheat", according to agricultural expert Sebastien Poncelet.

Egypt imports about 10 million tonnes of wheat annually, with its own production supplying less than half of demand, which was 18 million tonnes in 2012.

The acute shortage of foreign currency has hampered imports over the past six months, so financial aid from the Gulf will help Cairo cover its cost in the short term.

But to be able to supply cheap bread, a key ingredient in maintaining social stability, "the economy must be able to generate sustainable income over the long-term," said Galal.

Egypt upheaval mars hopes of end to economic woes - FRANCE 24

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Gulf states shower Egypt with $8B in support for army

Egypt unrest CAIRO - Gulf states showered Cairo with $8 billion in aid on Tuesday, showing their support for the Egyptian army's move to push the Muslim Brotherhood from power, a day after troops killed dozens of the movement's supporters. Military-backed interim head of state Adli Mansour named a liberal economist as acting prime minister and announced a faster-than-expected timetable for elections in six months. Mansour's army backers are under pressure to plot a path back to democracy less than a week after they overthrew Egypt's first freely elected president, the Brotherhood's Mohamed M...
Gulf states shower Egypt with $8B in support for army | San Diego Sun

Kuwait promises Egypt $4 billion in aid-state news agency

KUWAIT (Reuters) - Kuwait will provide $4 billion (£2.7 billion) in aid to Egypt, state news agency KUNA said on Wednesday, matching pledges by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that showed Gulf Arab approval of the Egyptian army's ousting of Islamist President Mohamed Mursi.

KUNA said the package would comprise a $2 billion central bank deposit, a $1 billion grant and $1 billion in oil products,

On Tuesday Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates each pledged $4 billion in aid to Egypt, where the army overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood's Mursi a week ago after huge street demonstrations against the elected president.

KUNA did not say when the Kuwaiti aid would arrive.

Kuwait has in the past cooperated with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, pledging financial aid for Gulf neighbours hit by social unrest such as Bahrain and Oman, but also for Morocco and Jordan.

The aid from the three Gulf Arab oil producers is expected to help Egypt avoid a balance of payments crisis and overcome fuel shortages that partly stoked public anger against Mursi.

It will also ease pressure on Cairo to conclude long-running talks with the International Monetary Fund on a $4.8 billion loan. However, a surging fiscal gap and political turmoil following Mursi's toppling last week will remain a pressing challenge for Egyptian authorities, analysts said.

Qatar lent Egypt more than $7 billion during Mursi's abruptly curtailed year in power, but other Gulf states remained aloof, wary of the Muslim Brotherhood's potential influence in their own conservative, dynastically ruled countries.

(Reporting by Ahmed Haggagy and Amena Bakr; Writing by Martin Dokoupil; Editing by Alistair Lyon)

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/World/2013/07/10/Kuwait-promises-Egypt-4-billion-in-aidstate-news-agency.aspx

 

[Battle of Kursk]

@BLACKEAGLE,

From the last article I brought:

Kuwait offered $4 billion in cash, loans and fuel, with Saudi Arabia contributing $5 billion and the United Arab Emirates another $3 billion.

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/middle...gypt-economy-there-way-out.html#ixzz2YxhgD2eS


Still I doubt it will do unless Egypt makes a mid long term economical strategy to balance the country and restore safety, hence tourism.

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

@BLACKEAGLE,

From the last article I brought:

Kuwait offered $4 billion in cash, loans and fuel, with Saudi Arabia contributing $5 billion and the United Arab Emirates another $3 billion.

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/middle...gypt-economy-there-way-out.html#ixzz2YxhgD2eS


Still I doubt it will do unless Egypt makes a mid long term economical strategy to balance the country and restore safety, hence tourism.

First of all, I would like to assure you that the Egyptian army won't be affected by this as it has it's own budget and yet investments that are separated from the state. They are receiving new batches of F-16 Block 52 and Abrams m1A1 as we speak. However, GCC won't allow Egyptian economy to deteriorate, it's just a transitional period.

 

[Arabian Legend]

First of all, I would like to assure you that the Egyptian army won't be affected by this as it has it's own budget and yet investments that are separated from the state. They are receiving new batches of F-16 Block 52 and Abrams m1A1 as we speak. However, GCC won't allow Egyptian economy to deteriorate, it's just a transitional period.

great read to what is going on the ground......

 

[Battle of Kursk]

First of all, I would like to assure you that the Egyptian army won't be affected by this as it has it's own budget and yet investments that are separated from the state. They are receiving new batches of F-16 Block 52 and Abrams m1A1 as we speak. However, GCC won't allow Egyptian economy to deteriorate, it's just a transitional period.

I think you mistake my intentions. I have no desire to debate the Egyptian army in this thread in any connotation other than their political power. I honestly ask everyone to avoid as much as possible it and focus on economy and economy only.

If you have read the articles and saw the data this situation is a result of processes taking decades, the situation is the opposite of a transitional period, ignoring the mounting problems is not going to help anyone.
The root is that Egypt's population has risen by 50% since the 90's, yet it's agriculture and industry have not developed as fast and as a result are lagging behind, unable to support the vast population. The situation got rapidly worse since tourism declined which eliminated 12 bn dollars income a year (as much as all of GCC donated and loaned) as well as closure of many factories and international businesses. not to mention 60% shrinkage on international investment.

Your suggestion that the GCC is able or willing to support 90 million Egyptians is just putting your head in the sand. The best they can do is offer some relief here and there.

and that's without mentioning the long term damage done to the young population as we speak as result of malnutrition, which was found to be the most sever factor to extremely lowered IQ.

Please re-read the articles, or at least the balded parts and the data around them.

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

I think you mistake my intentions. I have no desire to debate the Egyptian army in this thread in any connotation other than their political power. I honestly ask everyone to avoid as much as possible it and focus on economy and economy only.

If you have read the articles and saw the data this situation is a result of processes taking decades, the situation is the opposite of a transitional period, ignoring the mounting problems is not going to help anyone.
The root is that Egypt's population has risen by 50% since the 90's, yet it's agriculture and industry have not developed as fast and as a result are lagging behind, unable to support the vast population. The situation got rapidly worse since tourism declined which eliminated 12 bn dollars income a year (as much as all of GCC donated and loaned) as well as closure of many factories and international businesses. not to mention 60% shrinkage on international investment.

You suggestion that the GCC is able or willing to support 90 million Egyptians is just putting your head in the sand.

and that's without mentioning the long term damage done to the young population as we speak as result of malnutrition, which was found to be the most sever factor to extremely lowered IQ.

Please re-read the articles, or at least the balded parts and the data around them.

Many consider rise in population as an advantage, China and Turkey are the best example, Turkey witnessed a complete economic refurbishment in ten years. There is a huge economic project being constructed by Suez Canal that would transform Egyptian economy into a new era of industrialization. It's true that the situation is bad as for now, but you should know that it wasn't that great before three years. Anyway, this is up to Egyptians themselves, either they decide to settle down their problems and start building the country, or driving it to the unknown. I have no monopoly over them, but I prefer to be optimistic.

 

[agentny17]

In order:
1) Political stability.
2) Security, and safety.
3) Loans, and aides to jump start the economy especially the IMF loan.
4) Tourism.
5) Tourism.
6) Tourism.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
\/
All the way