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Dyer: Violent protests, coup up next in Bangladesh

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Dyer: Violent protests, coup up next in Bangladesh | The London Free Press

Dyer: Violent protests, coup up next in Bangladesh
Thursday, January 9, 2014 9:51:24 EST AM

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Last Sunday they held an election in Bangladesh, and nobody came.

Well, practically nobody. Turnout was down from 70% in the last election to only 20%. Some stayed away on principle, but others were frightened away by the violence: More than 100 polling stations set on fire, and 200 dead in political violence in the last two months.

The past is back with a vengeance in Bangladesh.

In the past 20 years, the country has seen rapid economic growth, a steeply falling birth rate and the advent of universal primary education. Average life span is 70 years, and average income has doubled since 1975.

Not bad for the world's most densely populated large country, with few natural resources and 160 million people crammed into the same area as the Maritime provinces.

But the narrative is changing again.

The problem is politics. Ever since the return of democracy in 1991, Bangladeshi politics has been dominated by two women who loathe each other.

Sheikh Hasina, currently prime minister and leader of the left-leaning, secular Awami League, is the daughter of the country's "founding father," Mujibur Rahman, who was murdered in 1975 with almost all his family by rebel army officers.

Her opponent of 20 years is Khaleda Zia, leader of the conservative, more religiously inclined Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). She is the widow of Gen. Ziaur Rahman, who became president after several more military coups and was himself assassinated in yet another coup in 1981.

Zia's husband was not one of the plotters who murdered the father of Sheikh Hasina, but the latter sees him as from the same stable.

Nevertheless, the two women have generally shown enough respect for the democratic process that the country has prospered while they alternated in power since 1991.

Even in 1996, when the Awami League boycotted the election and the BNP won by a landslide, the two leaders managed to finesse their way out of the crisis.

The new BNP-dominated parliament amended the constitution to allow a neutral caretaker government to take over and supervise new elections, which the Awami League won.

But this time the things have gone off the rails.

Sheikh Hasina, who has been prime minister since 2009, abolished the neutral caretaker system in 2010. So when she announced an election on Jan. 5 that would be run by her own Awami League government, the BNP assumed the election would be rigged and declared it would boycott it.

The Awami League won 127 seats where there was no opposition candidate and 105 of the 147 contested seats. It holds more than three-quarters of the seats in the new parliament, but it has no democratic credibility.

This outcome is all the more surprising because Sheikh Hasina was in precisely Zia's shoes 17 years ago, when the BNP rigged the election and the Awami League staged the boycott.

She must have known her rival would respond exactly the same way, and that the only escape from the resultant crisis would be to bring back the neutral caretaker to supervise a rerun of the election.

She knew that, and yet she did it anyway, which means she must be determined to ride out the protests and not allow any caretaker government or election rerun. This is a formula for escalating violence and an eventual military coup. Bangladesh is in trouble.

-- Gwynne Dyer is an independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.

Gwynne Dyer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Gwynne Dyer, OC (born April 17, 1943) is a London-based independent Canadian journalist, syndicated columnist and military historian.

Dyer was born in St. John's, Newfoundland and joined the Royal Canadian Naval Reserve at the age of sixteen. While still in the naval reserve, he obtained a BA in history from Memorial University of Newfoundland in 1963; an MA in military history from Rice University,Houston, Texas, in 1966; and a PhD in military and Middle Eastern history at King's College London in 1973. Dyer served in the Canadian, American and British naval reserves. He was employed as a senior lecturer in war studies at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, 1973-77. In 1973 he began writing articles for leading London newspapers on the Arab-Israeli conflict, and soon decided to abandon academic life for a full-time career in journalism. In 2010, he was appointed an Officer of the Order of Canada.[1]

Circulation
Dyer writes a column on international affairs which is published in over 175 papers in at least 45 countries.[2] Some papers that use Dyer's column regularly include the Japan Times, The Courier (Ballarat), the Straits Times (Singapore), the South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), the Bangkok Post, the Canberra Times, the New Zealand Herald, The Pioneer (New Delhi), DNA (Bombay), Dawn (Karachi), the Tehran Times, Arab News (Saudi Arabia), the Jordan Times, Monday Morning (Beirut), Egypt Today, the Jerusalem Post,Hurriyet Daily News (Istanbul), the Moscow Times, Telegraf (Kiev), Lidove Noviny (Prague), Adevarul (Bucharest), Helsingin Sanomat (Finland), Information (Copenhagen), NRC Handelsblad (Rotterdam), De Standaard (Brussels), Zeitpunkt (Switzerland), Internazionale (Rome), The New Vision (Uganda), The Star (Nairobi), Zimbabwe Independent, The Citizen (Johannesburg), the Cape Times, Le Droit (Ottawa), NOW (Toronto), La Presse (Montreal), Georgia Straight (Vancouver), Dawson Creek Daily News, Fast Forward Magazine (Calgary), the Winnipeg Free Press the Jamaica Daily Gleaner, the Trinidad Express, the Barbados Advocate, Buenos Aires Herald, The Hitavada (India), Cyprus Mailand the Visayan Daily Star (Philippines).

In the United States, his column appears in the Cincinnati Post, Columbus Dispatch, Dayton Daily News, Hartford Courant, Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Newsday, Philadelphia Inquirer, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Raleigh News & Observer, The Sacramento Bee, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Salt Lake Tribune, San Diego Union-Tribune, Toledo Blade, Winston-Salem Journal and about twenty other papers. Older articles are available online at the columnist's official website. His 1985 book War and its namesake television series have been aired on BBC and PBS.

Controversial discontinuations
Dyer's column was discontinued in the Jerusalem Post in 1997 when it was bought by Conrad Black. Black subsequently bought the former Southam chain in Canada, which included most of the country's big-city English-language dailies, and had Dyer's column expelled from all of them as well. When the Asper family, owners of Canwest Global, took over ownership of the papers in 2002, they maintained the ban. This had the result that Dyer's column has since been unavailable in the more mainstream Canadian newspapers, and consequently completely unavailable in large parts of the country.[3] Smaller media companies continue to publish the column, including alternatively owned newspapers such as Torstar's Hamilton Spectator, Edmonton's Vue Weekly, Vancouver's Georgia Straight, New Brunswick's Telegraph Journal and French paper l'Acadie Nouvelle, Sun Mediapapers such as the London Free Press and a few local publications of the regional Osprey Media and Black Press[4] (not affiliated with Conrad Black), such as Kamloops This Week and the Red Deer Advocate, as well as the Winnipeg Free Press and Calgary's independent Fast Forward Weekly.

Dyer speculates that this is due to his opinions on the Arab-Israel conflict and both Black's and the Asper family's Likud Party sympathies. In 2005, Dyer released a book of his columns, titled With Every Mistake.[3]

Works
Books
Documentaries
  • War (miniseries) (1983 7-part miniseries) The third part of the series named "the Profession of Arms" was nominated for an Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature.
  • The Defence of Canada (1986)
  • Harder Than It Looks (1987)
  • The Human Race (1994)
Radio series
  • Seven Faces of Communism (1978)
  • Brazil (1979)
  • The Catholic Counter-Revolution (1980)
  • War (1981)
  • The Gorbachev Revolution (1988–90)
  • Millennium (1996)
  • Climate Wars on CBC Radio Ideas (2008)(3-part documentary)
 
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how the hell does he know about a coup in Bangladesh? what is he smoking?
 
. . .
গৃহযুদ্ধ আর দুর্ভিক্ষ এখন অপেক্ষমান! এভাবে পথ হারাবে বাংলাদেশ? |

গৃহযুদ্ধ আর দুর্ভিক্ষ এখন অপেক্ষমান! এভাবে পথ হারাবে বাংলাদেশ?
Civil War and Famine waiting now. Is Bangladesh going to lose its way like this?




অধ্যাপক ওমর ফারুক: জানুয়ারি মাস। এ মাসে বাংলাদেশি মানুষের জন্য আবারও একটি কলঙ্কিত দিবস কায়েম করল আওয়ামী লীগ।১৯৭৫সালের ২৫ জানুয়ারি মাত্র ১৩ মিনিটের সংসদীয় আলোচনায় একদলীয় বাকশালী শাসন ব্যবস্থা কায়েম করা হয়।বিনা ভোটে শেখ মুজিবকে ঘোষণা করা হয়েছিল বাংলাদেশের আজীবন রাষ্ট্রপতি। যে গণতন্ত্র ও মানুষের অধিকার প্রতিষ্ঠার জন্য বাংলাদেশ স্বাধীন হয়েছিল, শেখ মুজিব তার কবর রচনা করেন। দীর্ঘ ৩৮ বছর পর ২০১৪ সালের ৫ জানুয়ারি তারই উত্তরসূরী কন্যা মাত্র শতকরা ৪ ভাগ মানুষের ভোটে প্রধানমন্ত্রী হয়ে আমাদের পুনরায় অর্জিত সামান্য গণতন্র কে দলিত মলিত করে সম্ভবত চিরনিদ্রায় শায়িত করণের কাজটি সম্পন্ন করলেন। এবার লজ্জা শব্দটিকে বাংলা অভিধান থেকে নির্বাসনে পাঠাতে যে হয়। এখন যারা অপকর্ম করে, তারা নির্লজ্জ ও বেহায়ার মত সেটির পক্ষে মিথ্যাচার করে। আর সত্যবাদিরা মুখ লুকায় লজ্জায়।

যিনি উলঙ্গ, তিনি লজ্জা বোধ করবেন না। এটিই স্বাভাবিক, কিন্তু উলঙ্গ প্রাণি‘র কার্যক্রম দেখে চেতনাবোধ সম্পন্নরা লজ্জিতই হবেন। সেটিই বাংলাদেশে রাষ্ট্রযন্ত্র যারা পরিচালনা করছে, তারা বেপরোয়া ভাবে করে যাচ্ছে।

এদিকে দৃশ্যত পরিষ্কার বুঝা যায়, পশ্চিমা বিশ্ব বাংলাদেশকে এক ভাবে দেখছে, আর ভারত দেখছে আরেক ভাবে। ভারতের স্বার্থ রক্ষা করতে গিয়ে মূলত বাংলাদেশ, বাংলাদেশের জনগণ ও গণতন্ত্রকেই নির্মমভাবে হত্যা করা হল। একটি তামাশার নির্বাচনকে ভারতীয় পত্রিকাগুলো নির্লজ্জভাবে হাই লাইট করল। আওয়ামীলীগ ভারতের সহযোগিতায় বিরোধী দল ও বিরোধী মত নিধনের নীল নকশা করছে। আর অন্যদিকে পশিমা বিশ্ব বাংলাদেশের জনগেণের পক্ষ অবলম্বন করে চাপ প্রয়োগ করছে । জাতিসঙ্গে শান্তি মিশনে কাজ করে বাংলাদেশ সেনাবাহিনী প্রচুর বৈদেশিক মুদ্রা অর্জন করে দেশের অর্থনীতিতে ভুমিকা রাখছে অন্যদিকে বাংলাদেশের ভাবমূর্তি উজ্জ্বল হচ্ছে বিশ্ব দরবারে ।
শেখ হাসিনা ও আওয়ামী সরকারের একগুঁয়েমির কারনে তা ভুলন্ঠিত হতে যাচ্ছে । যেকোন সময় আমরা হারাতে পারি সেই সুযোগ – জাতিসঙ্ঘে শান্তি মিশনে সেনাবাহিনী প্রেরনে যে কোন সময় জাতিসঙ্গের নিষেধাক্কা আসতে পারে সৈন্য প্রেরনের উপর । আর তা যদি হয় এর ফলে বাংলাদেশেও ঘটে যেতে পারে আরেকটা অনাকাঙ্ক্ষিত সেনা বিদ্রোহ ।

আশঙ্কা আগেই করেছিলাম ভারতের স্বার্থ রক্ষা করতে গিয়ে বাংলাদেশের গনতন্ত্রকে যেভাবে হত্যা করা হল তাতে পশিমা বিশ্ব বাংলাদেশকে কি ভাবে দেখবে। সেই খেলাই শুরু হতে যাচ্ছে একদিকে পশ্চিমা বিশ্বের সকল দেশ ও জাতিসঙ্গ আর একদিকে ভারত । গত ৪ জানুয়ারি (শনিবার) এমনি একটা আশঙ্কার সংবাদ পা্ওয়া গিয়েছে। নির্ভরযোগ্য সূত্রের খবর। জাতিসংঘের সহকারি মহাসচিব অস্কার ফার্নান্দেজ তারান্কো বাংলাদেশ সময় গত শনিবার (৪ জানুয়ারি ২০১৪) রাতে সেনাপ্রধান ইকবাল করিম ভুইয়াকে ফোন করেছেন। তিনি পরিষ্কার জানান যে, বাংলাদেশে একতরফা নির্বাচন সম্পূর্ণ অগ্রহনযোগ্য। ইতোপূর্বে জাতিসংঘের সমঝোতা চেষ্টা সরকারের গোয়ার্তুমির কারণে ব্যর্থ হয়েছে বলেও জানান তিনি | এ অবস্থায় অবিলম্বে একতরফা নির্বাচনের সকল প্রক্রিয়া বাতিল করে সবার অংশগ্রহনে একটি অবাধ ও গ্রহনযোগ্য নির্বাচন আয়োজনের জন্য প্রাথমিকভাবে নির্বাচন কমিশনের ওপর চাপ প্রয়োগের জন্য পরামর্শ দেন । এটা করা না হলে জাতিসংঘের শান্তিরক্ষা কার্যক্রমে বাংলাদেশ সশস্ত্র বাহিনীর অংশগ্রহন হুমকির মুখে পড়বে । জবাবে সেনাপ্রধান বলেন, বিষয়টি নিয়ে ওপর জেনারেলদের সাথে আলোচনার পর পদক্ষেপ নেবেন তিনি । এরপর গতকাল রবিবার সেনাপ্রধান বিষয়টি নিয়ে পৃথকভাবে কয়েকজন উর্ধতন কর্মকর্তার সাথে কথা বলেন | তাদের প্রায় সকলেই জাতিসংঘের প্রস্তাবমত সেনাবাহিনীর ভুমিকা গ্রহণের পক্ষে অভিমত দেন | তবে ততক্ষণে বিষয়টি প্রধানমন্ত্রী শেখ হাসিনার কানে চলে যায় । তাত্ক্ষনিকভাবে হাসিনা সেনাপ্রধানকে ফোন করে করা ভাষায় ধমক দেন যে, এ নিয়ে আর এক চুলও অগ্রসর হলে বরখাস্ত করা হবে ইকবাল করিম ভুইয়াকে । ধমক খেয়ে দৃশ্যত থমকে যান সেনাপ্রধান । তবে রবিবার সন্ধ্যার মধ্যেই বিষয়টি সশস্ত্র বাহিনীর বিভিন্ন পর্যায়ে জানাজানি হয়ে যায় এবং তাতে জাতিসংঘ মিশন নিয়ে রীতিমত আতঙ্ক ছড়িয়ে পড়ে । ধারণা করা হচ্ছে যে সেনাবাহিনীর পক্ষ থেকে কোনো ভুমিকা না নেওয়া হলে জাতিসংঘের শান্তিরক্ষা কার্যক্রম থেকে সম্পূর্ণরূপে ছিটকে পড়তে পারে বাংলাদেশ । তাতে সবচেয়ে বেশি ক্ষতিগ্রস্ত হবে সশস্ত্র বাহিনীর সাধারণ অফিসার ও সৈনিকরা ।
আমরদের সকলেরই “দেশ বাচাও মানুষ বাচাও” আন্দোলনে সম্পৃক্ত থেকে এ ভয়াবহ অবস্থা থেকে পরিত্রানের উপায় খুজে বের করতে হবে ।

From reliable source, it was reported that UN official Taranco called IKB on the night of Jan. 4, 2013 and told him that the one sided election was unacceptable. Despite many efforts by the UN to convince them to not go for this, the current govt. went ahead with it anyways. Now the Armed forces must pressure the election commissioner to cancel the election and hold a new free, fair and credible election. If it is not done, Bangladesh Armed forces participation in UN Peace Keeping operations might be in jeopardy. IKB promised to talk to top generals about this. After IKB talked with some of the generals separately, most of them agreed to the UN proposal. But Hasina already got wind of it. She called IKB and threatened to dismiss IKB if he continued this activity. IKB since then have lost momentum on this issue apparently. But by Sunday evening, this story was already out with various levels of Armed forces and spread some panic about loosing UN mission. People within the Armed forces are of opinion that if the Armed forces do nothing, they may be expelled from UN Peace Keeping operation.

শেষাবধি নির্বাচন করেই ছাড়ল
শেখ হাসিনা সব ছেড়ে দিতে পারে, ভারতকে ছাড়তে পারে না। শেষাবধি ভোটারবিহীন নির্বাচনী নাটক মঞ্চস্থ করেই ছাড়ল।

ভারতীয় দালালরা বলল – তত্ত্বাবধায়ক সরকার পদ্ধতি কোন অনির্বাচিত ব্যক্তিদের দ্ধারা পরিচালিত হতে পারে না। কিন্তু যার জন্য সংবিধান পরিবর্তন! পরিতাপের বিষয় হচ্ছে সবার মুখে একটা কথাই ঘুরে ফিরে আসতো স্বাধীন ও শক্তিশালী নির্বাচন কমিশন নিয়ে। তিন মাসের তত্ত্বাবধায়ক সরকার নিয়ে এত কথা; পাঁচ বছরের নির্বাচন কমিশন যে অনির্বাচিত ব্যক্তিদের দ্ধারা পরিচালিত সেটা কোন সমস্যা নয়! বাংলাদেশের এমন অনেক সাংবিধানিক পোষ্ট আছে যার সবগুলোই অনির্বাচিত ব্যক্তিদের দ্ধারা পরিচালিত। শুধু সমস্যা তিন মাসের তত্ত্বাবধায়ক নিয়ে!

কথিত সংবিধানের ধারাবাহিকতা রক্ষায় নাগরিক অধিকার ভুলণ্ঠিত করে, অসংবিধানিক যত কর্মকান্ড সব কিছু ছাপিয়ে, শতশত নীরিহ সাধরণ মানুষের লাশের উপর ভর করে অনুষ্ঠিত হলো দশম জাতীয় সংসদ নির্বাচন।

অর্ধেকেরও বেশি আসনে একক ভাবে জয়লাভ। অবশিষ্ট ১শ ৪৭ আসনে নির্বাচনী ব্যয় প্রায় ৬শ কোটি টাকা! জনগণের টাকা দিয়ে এ নির্বাচনে ভোটার উপস্থিতি সবার জানা। অনেক ভোট কেন্দ্রে একটি ভোটও না পড়ার নজির দেশের ইতিহাসে এই প্রথম। মিডিয়ার চোখ তথা দেশীয় নির্বাচনী পর্যবেক্ষকদের মতে, ৮-১০% পার্সেন্ট ভোটার উপস্থিতির কথা উঠে আসলেও দৃশ্যপট বদলে যায় রাত ৯টার পর থেকে। বিজয়ী প্রার্থীরা লাখেরও বেশী ব্যবধানে জয়ী হচ্ছেন! এসব দেখে জাতি হতাশ হবার কিছুই নেই। আমি মনে করি আওয়ামী লীগ নিজেদের পায়ে নিজেরাই কুড়াল মেরেছেন। সাধারণ জনগণকে এতটা বোকা ভাবা ঠিক নয়। এখন এটা প্রমানিত এতদিন আওয়ামী লীগ যে কথা বলতেন যে দেশের এতগুলো মিডিয়ার সামনে ভোট কারচুপি করা যাবে না। যথার্থই ভোট কারচুপি করা যায় নি! ‘‘ইচ্ছে মত ভোট যোগ করে ফলাফল ঘোষণা করা আর মিডিয়ার বদৌলতে মানুষের চোখ ও বিবেককে বুড়ো আঙুল দেখিয়ে আওয়ামী লীগ প্রমান করলো যে আগামী দিনে তত্ত্বাবধায়ক এর পরিবর্তে উঠে আসবে অনির্বাচিত ব্যক্তিদের দ্ধারা নির্বাচন কমিশন পরিচালিত হতে দেয়া যায় না। এবং বিএনপি কোন দিন ক্ষমতায় এসে তা করলে অবাক হবার কিছু থাকবে না’’।

তাজ উদ্দিন আহমেদের একটা কথা মনে পড়ছে। বাকশাল করার সময় তিনি মুজিবকে একটা কথা বলেছেন, ‘ জনগণের প্রতিবাদের গণতান্ত্রিক অধিকার ও মুখের ভাষা বন্ধ করলে, প্রতিবাদের ভাষা হবে গুলি’।

সেটা প্রমানিত হয়েছে। ২১ বছর পর আওয়ামী লীগ ক্ষমতা আসতে পেরেছে। এবার পথ হারালে আওয়ামী লীগের অবস্থান নর্দমায় চলে যাবে বলে অনেকেই ভাবছেন।

অবৈধ নির্বাচন থেকে জনদৃষ্টি সরাতেই সংখ্যালঘুর ওপর হামলা অবৈধ নির্বাচন থেকে দেশবাসীর দৃষ্টি অন্যদিকে সরিয়ে নেয়ার জন্য সরকারি দলের পৃষ্টপোষকতায় বিভিন্ন স্থানে সংখ্যালঘুদের ওপর হামলা চালানো হচ্ছে। যৌথবাহিনীর অভিযানের নামে র‌্যাব, পুলিশ, বিজিবি’র সঙ্গে ছাত্রলীগ, যুবলীগ বিরোধী দলের নেতাকর্মীদের বাড়িঘরে হামলা চালাচ্ছে। কথায় কথায় মিথ্যা মামলা দিয়ে জাতীয় নেতাদের গ্রেপ্তার করা হচ্ছে। সমগ্র দেশটাকে কারাগারে পরিণত করেছে সরকার।

বাংলাদেশে এখন মিডিয়া সন্ত্রাস চলছে
যৌথ বাহিনী ও সরকার দলীয় ক্যাডারদের দ্বারা গত কয়েক মাসে অসংখ্য মানুষ খুন হয়েছে। কয়েকশত লোকরে গুম করা হয়েছে, ২ দিন পর তাদের লাশ পাওয়া যাচ্ছে নর্দমায় কিংবা দূরে কোথাও। সে নিয়ে পত্রপত্রিকা ও ইলেক্ট্রনিক মিডিয়াতে কোন রিপোর্টিং নেই।
উল্টো এডিট করা ছবি দিয়ে নিউজ করা হচ্ছে যাতে সরকার দলীয় হত্যাযজ্ঞকে বিরোধী জোটের উপর ফেলা যায়।

ভারতের রাজধানী দিল্লীতে মুসলিমদের বাসা ভাড়া দেওয়া হয় না। আসামের এক প্রেগনেন্ট মহিলা সংসদ সদস্যকে তার ধর্ম চেঞ্জ করার জন্য কিভাবে ৩০/৪০ জন মিলে মাটিতে শোয়াইয়া লাথি মেরেছিল। বাংলাদেশে এসব হয় নি। বরং বাংলোদেশের মুসলমানরা সংখ্যালঘুদের জানমালের নিরাপত্তা বিধানে পাহারা বসায়। কেননা আওয়ামি লিগের মত রাজনৈতিক দল সংখ্যালঘুদের ‍উপর হামলা করে বিরোধী দলের উপর এর দায়ভার ছপিয়ে ফায়দা নিতে চায়।

মিডিয়া নির্লজ্জ মিথ্যাচার করে বেড়ায়। বিরোধী দলের কোন কর্মী বা নেতাকে হত্যা করা হলে হলুদ মিডিয়াগুলো রিপোর্ট করে যে, পুলিশ (পুলিশ লিগ) এর সাথে সংঘর্ষে নিহত হয়েছে। আওয়ামি গুন্ডা নিহত হলে বলে জামাত কিংবা বিএনপি কর্মীদের দ্বারা খুন করেছে।

লেখক: ডেইলি ঢাকা পোস্ট অনলাইন ডট কম -এর সম্পাদক
 
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^^-----this IKB sounds more like a mess boy than a general
 
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Why The Military Intervened In Bangladesh Politics? By M Mukhlesur Rahman Chowdhury

Why The Military Intervened In Bangladesh Politics?

By M Mukhlesur Rahman Chowdhury

10 January, 2013
Countercurrents.org

An innovative system of Caretaker Government was abolished following 2007 military intervention which created a political crisis prolonged until present prevailing stalemate in Bangladesh.

Regarding 'why the military has intervened in Bangladesh politics' needs to be answered. Unfortunately few research works have adequately examined the causes of and conditions for military intervention. The scholarly studies of Emajuddin Ahamed, Zillur Rahman Khan, and Hassan Uzzaman are worth mentioning on this as far as existing literature are concerned. Experts on Bangladesh politics Talukdar Maniruzzaman, Rounaq Jahan, and Marcus Franda have dealt with the military intervention issue on different occasions as well. About two army coups occurred in 1975, Lawrence Lifschultz and Anthony Mascaranhas addressed in their books in detail.

According to literature, mainly two reasons were identified for military intervention. They are: military factors and political elements. To find out the causes and conditions for the military intervention it needs to identify certain elements involved within. The major elements are corporate interests of military, conspiracy against the regime, personal motives of coup makers, political issues in the corporatist interpretation, divisions in political parties, lack of political institutionalisation or the failure of civilian regimes.
Some scholars argued that the developing nations have been suffering from political problems, which caused 'bad governance'. The problems include political chaos and anarchy; broaden corruption, absence of rule of law, transparency as well as accountability (Udogu, 2000). Since 1991 Bangladesh is evidence of all indicators (Hagerty, 2007).

Ball (1981) analytically evaluates the developing countries militaries political role for two reasons. First, the military-backed governments are least responsive to the needs and voices of the poor majority. Besides, military-dominated governments use arms far more frequently than civilian-dominated governments in order to curb civilian demands and unrest. Second, with the increasing role of the military in politics, its control over scarce resources of the country increases as well. for this reason, a greater amount of these scarce resources has been channelled into the military sector or activities closely related to the military.

Ball identifies four major beneficiaries’ societal groups that most likely benefit from the involvement of the military in the economic and political life of a country: domestic civilian groups, the military as an institution, and the individuals within the military and foreign groups. Corruption is an important element attached to military intervention in the countries political and the economic life. It has been seen that when the army seek to get involved in the political process of a country, allies are sought among bureaucrats, technocrats and politicians.

'In military-dominated government the collaboration of the civil service is vital because a country cannot be administrated solely with military man power, not even one as entrenched as that in Brazil, Thailand and Indonesia. It is generally argued that the military and the civilian bureaucracy are best allies' (Edward Feit, 1973).

Apart from the above research works Samuel Huntington, Morris Janowitz, Syed Sirajul Islam, Hamza Alavi, Ahmed, Rahman, Chowdhury, Badaruddin Umar, Borhanuddin Khan Jahangir, Alan Lindquist, Peter Bertocci, William Sloan, Khan, among others, analysed in their books and journals on military intervention, politics and governance of Bangladesh where failure of politicians, corruption and military leaders lust of power came as cause of military intervention.

On the research issue, Bangladesh has been neglected as many researchers think there are similarities with Pakistan although there are dissimilarities too and dimension is also different as Bangladesh has no ethnic, religious or sectarian problem whereas Bangladeshi is mostly a homogeneous nation. There is a problem to pursue this kind of research by Bangladeshi researchers is fear of persecution by military. Still Directorate General of Forces Intelligent (DGFI) is playing key role in running the government under civilian cover. An editor is now in jail and another journalist left the country as could came out of prison and there are many those who were abducted. Human rights situation is bad there although in economic field Bangladesh is doing well when even recession is going on in developed countries. Another reason of reluctance in doing research is many people think external powers are involved in military intervention. Due to rampant corruption in Bangladesh politics a vast majority of the people dislike politics and sometimes do not feel bad as did earlier on military intervention. It is better to study on Bangladesh politics from outside the country. These days academics are becoming more interested about it. Those who are pursuing PhD on related topics about Bangladesh most of their research works are superficial and sometimes far from truth as they are not in a position to dig out the truth. I witnessed many untold facts while was in the helm of affairs of the country which are being researched in other way round. My track record of integrity as well as being courageous will be able to find problems and solutions into it, which will discover ways for the actors and development partners to build a better country and help researches to gain the right issues in right place.

'Why the explanations of military intervention in politics of Bangladesh are not adequate':

As far as military intervention is concerned, the few scholarly studies have adequately examined its root causes. As there are lacking in understanding Bangladesh politics correctly, the superficial research works have been continuing in most of the cases. It was found that there are two factors involved in military intervention in politics. They are Corporatist and structuralist. One argument is military factors are the main elements here while the other scholars group argues that it is the political elements. The argument in favour of political factors seems to be weak. Only a few authors undertake the structuralist approach. They treat military intervention as a peripheral theme. In corporatist strand, all agree that there is no single factor in military intervention. The distinct characteristic of this study is practicality of the situation what gives blame on politicians. The authors of this group try to connect military with politicians giving the first party upper hand. Emajuddin Ahamed represents this group and recognises that in the political vacuum (systemic weaknesses) army takes over. His explanations are not adequate as only emphasised on one side of the coin.

By reviewing it can say that Ahamed fails to make a direct connection between the 'systemic weakness' and military intervention. His study could not answer why such weakness arise and why military needs to seize state power. Hassan Uzzaman, Peter Bertocci, Ahamed, Khan, Jahan, Franda, Maniruzzaman and Lifschultz rely more or less on the hypothesis that coups were occurred on same issues e.g. failure of politicians, military interests and corruptions. They interpret the political situations of Bangladesh in the light of the late 1950s-1970s military intervention theories when there was a different situation as bipolar world was in existence. Among two super powers America and the then Soviet Union were in rivalry position on military intervention issue and one used to use veto power against another in the United Nations. On the other hand, because of changed political scenario with the unipolar world there are risks of losing participation in the UN Peace Keeping Forces at present military intervention faces obstacles. Now-a-days in the changed political situation army commands instigate rival political forces for their own interest and at the same time showed government, people and external factors that they are unwilling to take over, they do it once they are bound to do so when country is at stake as people want get rid of political chaos and anarchy and do welcome military intervention. However, at the same time highest degree of rivalry in political parties helps some highly ambitious people in the top of armed forces for military intervention for their own interest. These developments in politics are yet to address in various research works, which is definitely inadequate for the scholarly studies in this field.

The literature on military intervention first emphasises the unique characteristics of the military establishment, which is considered to be the prime cause of actions of military. Study in this field has been continuing with the developments of military rule in different countries. Although authors like Samuel Huntington thought that military explanations are not sufficient to explain the reasons of military coups. Besides, there is a strong tendency in the literature to overemphasise the organisational aspect of the military.

Ahamed and Khan evaluate Bangladesh army's colonial legacy and 'apolitical' role while have been claiming that this army functions as the guardian of society. According to Ali Riaz, the most serious flaw in this type of interpretation is drawing the bottom-line that the military is an apolitical organisation while involving beyond their constitutional role. Moreover, this way of argument ignores the fact that the military is an organ of the state. Both Ahamed and Khan inherited these weaknesses from the general line of arguments put forth in the works of Pauker, Pye, Janowitz and Feit. According to them the military organisation can be treated as an independent variable.

Both Ahamed and Khan agree with Finer, Nordlinger, Dowse and Gutterdige about corporate interests as one of the main factors in military intervention in politics as they considered some case studies of military intervention in different countries during pre and post last two world wars. But it is agreed by other studies that coups cannot be attributed to corporate interests alone. Ahamed rely on two other factors other than corporate interests of army, which are the formation of 'Jatiya Rakhhi Bahini' (National Security Force) and creation of division in army as 'freedom fighters' and 'repatriated'. Khan's opinion is same on this. However, following 1975 coups Bangladesh faced more military interventions, both successful and abortive. In this case, it cannot say that these are only factors or causes to legitimise military intervention.

The main hypothesis of Baladas Ghosal's latest article 'The Anatomy of Military Interventions in Asia: The Case of Bangladesh' is that a new pattern of military involvement in politics is emerging in countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, which will call ‘power without responsibility and accountability’. The article referred 2007 coup as saying, 'the military intervention has both long- and short-term implications for political developments in Third World countries and, thus, requires closer scrutiny and analysis'. The weakness of this research is it could not assess the causes and conditions availing in the country prior to military intervention happened in 2007.

Regarding failure of the military backed government of 2007-08, Maryam Mastoor argues that the lack of public participation and unlawful in its existence as well as unconstitutional status led to its drastic failure made it more vulnerable. But it did not mention about the military government's huge corruption and torture on politicians and people out of grudge.

According to recent findings of a paper of Florida State University titled 'What Accounts for Military Interventions in Politics: A Cross- National Comparison', it supports socio-economic and political institutionalisation as having the most significant impact on the incidence of coups. It emphasises more on African and Latin American military interventions while could not address real problems of Asian especially Bangladesh context of indigenous style political crises which include dynamism of politics of discord, enmity and mistrust.

Referring 1975 coup, Franda and Maniruzzaman mention that personal motives of coup makers are important factors. Although 2007 military intervention was dependent on army chief's lust to be the President of the country, according to all major stakeholders including two major political parties and local and international newspapers. Lieuwen, Finer and Decalo argues that apart from other factors including political problems, corporate interests, corruption most common issue is individual self-interest which causes military intervention. Followed by 1975 coup there were more coups took place in Bangladesh. These examples are clear indication here that the personal motives theory is not adequate to discover the actual cause of military interventionism in Bangladesh.

As Lifschultz points out the issue of conspiracy against the regime with external involvement, it can be said that the organisational aspect of the military cannot be ignored. It has been seen that military has a monopoly over the means of coercion.

Ahamed, Jahan and Bertocci analyse that failure of politicians or civilian government is one of the principal causes of military intervention. Corruption and economic crisis are discussed here as well. They referred 1975 and 1982 coups in this regard. Military rulers raise this issue in after all interventions. The claim of corruption and inefficiency may be among the causes as all military rulers allege, but these are the only reason is questionable. Before coming to conclusion on this research one should point to the sources of the crisis: class composition of the ruling elites, nature/position of the state in the global economic system. Position of Bangladesh Army and situation of Bangladesh are quite different and unique as deviation from promise and agreements are there. Mutual trust is absent in politics among stakeholders are very visible. It needs to understand complexity of indigenous and different type of Bangladeshi characteristics which was formed and developed with colonial legacy, war of secession and democratic movements.

Without understanding the context and reality of Bangladesh politics it cannot be drawn outline of research to restructure and reform of governance. Regarding Bangladesh Army, it was established through a war. The armed forces think they are part of it unlike other armies and their sense of belonging is different from other disciplined armies.

Moudud Ahmed in his book 'Democracy and the Challenge of Development - A Study of Politics and Military Interventions in Bangladesh' mentions about the crisis' (UPL 1995) The power of governing the state moved from the hands of the politicians to the combined class of officers and technocrats - which changed the character and complexion of the administration as a whole'. However he did not cite any reference of corruption of 1982-90 military regimes where he played as an actor.

It seems, as studying, that there are both strengths and weaknesses in the existing literature of military intervention. In most of the cases, research works are undertaken depending on only general aspects of military intervention. Furthermore, sometimes the research is done superficially. This review shows that some relevant and important issues have not been really taken into consideration while pursuing the scholarly studies. Thus, it can be said that the explanations of military intervention in politics of Bangladesh are not adequate.

The theory of Historical Institutionalism

The theory of Historical Institutionalism (HI) was not previously examined in Bangladesh politics with its full potential. Historical Institutionalism (HI) provides a valid and powerful theory to evaluate the democratic development as well as legacies. The central concept of HI is that historic policy choices of institutions impact on future policy. The policy is based on long-range determining effect. Here history matters as ‘path dependency’. Behind the HI approach Steinmo, Thelen and Longstreth (1991) contributed main role. In path dependency past decisions set the context in which contemporary decisions are taken.

The important things for my research project which are to deal with largely with political and cultural institutional factors such as the constitution, distrust and role of the military. Historical institutionalism analysis is useful to analyse Bangladesh politics because of the factors that are clearly subject to path dependency. It is appropriate because these institutions and hindering factors have evolved over time based on complex interacting factors. This is exactly the type of analysis that historical institutionalism was designed for. Bangladesh inherited historical legacy that affects politics and thereby international relations. It has critical juncture as well. For these reasons HI is distinct and most productive approach as theory here.

For example, people’s rights deprivations in Bangladesh, although begun under colonial era, have shown a high degree of 'path dependent' continuity beyond independence and into the present day. The lack of significant reform is partly due to the incumbent interest groups, namely the ruling party politicians, a section of civil-military bureaucrats close to government's hierarchy, and particular commercial and private interests, which have continued to benefit, despite the creation of mass supporter of democracy and good governance.

Good governance

There are both positive and negative sides of 'good' governance and that is why I put good under inverted comma. Regarding institutional reform and strengthening of Anti-Corruption Commission are World Bank's agendas although there are criticism which includes imperialism and extension of capitalism. Besides, there should be combination of Bangladeshi indigenous model of democracy with donor agencies popular 'good governance' theory. Good governance has connection with the World Bank prescription and in some cases to disburse aid is conditional. Recently WB withdrew an approved fund worth $3 billion for the construction of the long awaited 'Padma Multi-purpose Bridge' due to alleged involvement of government corruption for what a minister had to resign. Although this was an intervention yet it is acceptable for the sake of sustainable democracy (Daily Star 2012, World Bank 2013). Although Bangladesh opted for Westminster type of democracy, the country has been witnessing 'all powerful Prime Ministerial form of government' which replaced earlier Presidential system of government (Daily Star 2011). To get rid of governance problem Bangladesh needs major structural reform in government sector (UNDP 2012) for its sustainable development and survival of its democracy (Chowdhury 2008).

There are disputes and debates on the theories as well as on the prospects of 'good governance'.

The strengths of the notion of ‘good governance’:

It is supportive and cooperative relationships between government, civil society and the private sector. It is combination of some elements such as participation, accountability, transparency of decision-making, the rule of law and predictability. Moreover, sometimes civil liberties, democratic practices, and access to information are included to the list. As far as the developing countries are concerned, donor assistance to strengthen governance has focused on empowerment and capacity-building.

According to the World Bank, UNDP, OSCE, USAID, and other donor agencies, good governance consists of political and economic dimensions. The political dimension is divided into four parts: government legitimacy; government accountability; government competence; and human rights or rule of law. On the other hand, the economic dimension has four components: public sector management; organisational accountability; rule of law including contracts, property rights; and transparency includes freedom of information.

The weaknesses of the notion of ‘good governance’:

The frameworks are normative in character.

Dr. Mark Orkin suggests two main reasons for failure of 'good governance'. First, disputes about governance indicators are “endemically ideological.” Measurement and selection of indicators are based on public administration and political frameworks. In this case the same indicator may have divergent interpretations depending on which ideological underpinning is utilised.

Second, some regimes forced into compliance by trade and aid considerations and they are simultaneously reluctant to produce and disseminate governance indicators that reflect adversely on the progress toward 'good governance'. This reluctance is compounded when indicators are used in cross-country comparisons and rankings.
Good governance is by and large treated as an instrumental value. According to stakeholders, it is a means by which to achieve a desired ends. Regarding good governance sometimes it means “Governance for poverty reduction” or “Governance for economic development/ efficiency”.

The Human Rights Centre, University of Essex, issued a major report in 2003 on “Map-Making and Analysis of the Main International Initiatives on Developing Indicators on Democracy and Good Governance.” The project, conducted by a team led by Todd Landman, was commissioned by the Statistical Office of the Commission of the European Communities (EUROSTAT). After completion of the project where different approaches and methodological options available for measuring democracy and good governance, the Final Report acknowledges from the outset, ''however, that good governance remains an “essentially contested concept,” since there is no consensus on its definition or content (Landman et al., p. 1). Different definitions lead to different measures of the concept. In the absence of a clear conceptual framework, controversy surrounds the tools of measurement''.

The notion of 'good governance' will help in reforming governance of Bangladesh's institutions and organisations in some extent. To place right persons in right place is the issue of the day now in Bangladesh. Since the world it is a global village now it is acceptable to receive assistance and cooperation for reform of the governance flourish democracy. I shall be reasonable and critical as well while do research the issue of 'good governance'. Indeed my emphasis is to find out the root causes where Bangladesh fails again and again to follow the right path of democracy. By this, the research will help to establish right standard way of method where Bangladesh fits in.
What brought army to power?

In brief, this research has different hindrances of different categories:

Institutional hindrances are directly related to path-dependency and institutionalism approach. These include lack of Government neutrality, role of judiciary and law enforcement and de-centralisation.

Mistrust, suspicion, discord and crisis of identity are historical legacy. Some of them begun from colonial legacy and war of secession and some others started with restoration of democracy in 1991. Followed by 2007 military intervention the political crisis has been created centring 'Caretaker Government' issue again. In Bangladesh politics, individual (agent-centred) hindrances are sometimes related to political decisions and path-dependency as well.

Corruption is an issue which instigates army to take over power. However, these military motivations go against them when their people involve themselves into it. Sometimes, military thinks that it is ‘saving’ democracy by intervening into politics. Military coup of 1982 and 2007-08 military backed rule reinforced this concept.

M Mukhlesur Rahman Chowdhury is a London-based Researcher as well as Independent Analyst in Politics and International Relations. He is a Former Minister and Adviser to the President of Bangladesh. Email: mukhleschow@gmail.com
 
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What about the trebushet design I showed you?
 
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The coup in BD is inevitable

Following Bangladesh history it can be said a coup is inevitable though this time it doesn't seem to be happening. Even if it happens, it'll have no good side because most likely it'd be india backed coup. I think BA is in such a structure now, many of our internal matters have been compromised last 5 years with india. In fact we need a peoples' revolution now and if possible need to build a Chinese style govt., current system stinks.
 
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