I agree a response in Iraq would be a strategic mistake for the Saudis as Iran can then deliver drones and or missiles much more effectively into Iraq than Yemen. Their oil facilities would not survive imo.
Best thing to do is a peace deal.
Absolutely not, Iran is led by a regime that embodies and emphasizes revolution and will not stop exporting the 'revolution' if Saudis just surrender. There are much better options for Saudi Arabia if they are willing to change. But, they aren't and they ignored all their brothers advice since the Arab spring until now. Their news media isn't even covering the news much. It's too late for them as they have played their cards wrong and Iran will go all the way. I won't be surprised if we see an Saudi-Iranian war by 2020.
So bottomline, they had much better options but foregone all of them. And now their top oil producing facility is attacked and set ablaze. Supposedly its output is 7 million barrels a day.
Salaam
I'malso trying to think about what could be the reason behind the Iranian escalation here.
It cannot be that they would attack the oil fields without much thought.
I'm especially curious about why they would do such a thing right after the recent tensions with the US. Were they emboldened by it? Do they think that the US isn't willing to fight them because of domestic reasons - Bolton getting the boot etc - so they chose to do this?
If it is Saumar cruise missile - and if the evidence ties it to the Iranians in a very clear way. What would that mean. Surely, they did this expecting something.
What if the Saudis do not respond to this - and there is another one like it.
The Iranians are obviously confident about their capabilities that they've went this route. If this attack doesn't force the Saudis to act they could do another - how many before the Saudis cannot ignore any further.
Why now though and what does it mean for the Saudis given the Iranians are confident now and willing to provoke them.
The Saudis should try to mend ties with Turkey ASAP and start mending relatiins with all the others if they wish to be able to tackle Iran.
Either Iranians have not much left to lose or they believe US does not want to get into a war and will allow a Saudi-Iranian war to play out. Russia is based in Syria too and like Russia will stand behind them in some form. Also US under Trump have made it clear they don't want a war and that Trump wants continued economic prosperity for the US.
This is the top oil producing facility in Saudi Arabia and the global reaction has been minimal. I don't expect Saudi Arabia to be able to change this equation and a new attack will follow, maybe even more lethal.
Iran is certainly confident on the military front. And as you said, Saudi's under MBS alienated Qatar, Turkey and other populist movements in the region. They have good ties with Egypt and Jordan, the GCC. Egypt does not want a war in the region and Jordan can only secure itself.
KSA is left without friends.It's only close ally Pak which would jump at time of conflict is also being kept an arm length away from kingdom.
This is true, unfortunately.
When you start vilifying your partners and pressurize them into accepting your terms as a master slave (KSA/UAE - Pakistan) relationship; there are bound to be repercussions. They should learn how US vilified Pakistan and sent it screaming into China's camp (for the best).
If arabs keep treating Pakistan like a slave captured in a war; it will be forced to take sides with Iran sooner or later; its diplomatic issues with Iran notwithstanding. Pakistan had fun watching US interests go up in flame in the region just by waiting it out. 10 points to the arabs if they understand the seriousness of the matter quickly. No amount of money can "buy" respect. These rich sheikhs are used to throwing money at problems.
Pakistan will not take sides, and Saudis are learning the hard way that the US will not be there for them. It's becoming more and more apparent by the day.
Although I will tell you Saudi regime is not gonna learn from their mistakes. Everyone was shocked when they enforced blockade on Qatar and put MB on terrorist list among other things. At a time where they need allies. So I have no idea who is producing assessments for MBS because he is delusional and not in a strong standing in the region.