Dhaka - Delhi defence pact a threat to South Asian stability
Shahid Islam
A controversial defence agreement between Bangladesh and India is set to be inked during Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to Delhi from April 7, pushing more of the Bangladeshis toward subscribing the radical Islamists’ agenda of turning Bangladesh into an Islamic state through an armed struggle that had already been launched by the Islamists.
Of late, militants had shown how regimented and strong they are; challenging police and, keeping the army’s para commando unit at bay for more than 111 hours during an operation in Sylhet in late March.
Overlooking political history
The deal overlooks the history of evolving Bangladesh politics which had already degenerated into a burgeoning civil war, and, the India factor stands at the center of it; which it historically did since the defeat by the British of the last independent Muslim Bengali ruler, Siraj –Ud - Dowla, in 1757, with the connivance of Hindu generals of the Bengali army. Amidst intense communal tension, the British had to temporarily divide Bengal in 1905, based on acute Hindu-Muslim cleavage.
Later, the creation of the Muslim League in Dhaka in 1906 showed the determination of the Bengali Muslims to carve out a separate homeland; a feat they had achieved only after fighting out the Pakistanis in 1971, with whom they formed a unified Muslim homeland in 1947.
Bangladesh today is the third largest Muslim nation in terms of population. Its major handicap stems from the geographic encirclement by Hindu-predominant India and Buddhist-predominant Myanmar. For years now, the country has been groaning under the pain of a silent revolution spearheaded by militant Islamists bent on turning this 165-million strong nation into an Islamic state.
Rationale and idealism
The Islamists are determined not to allow Bangladesh become a secular nation while no other Muslim predominant country is secular, per se; including Turkey and Indonesia. They think only a handful of Bangladeshis, including the nearly eleven percent minorities, want Bangladesh to be secular. This Islamic-Secular dichotomy had led to a renewed struggle since the 1990s following the Bangladeshi Afghan war veterans’ launching of their maiden struggle for the cause and, the post 9/11 global political turmoil stoking the cauldron further to help militants recruit more members.
In this tortuous struggle, the India factor shaped the agenda. In India, over 1900 anti-Muslim riots occur each year, in an average, killing thousands of innocent Muslims. Anti-Muslim sentiments are so ripe across India that the Hindu-fundamentalist BJP is allowed not only to rule, but rule with a mandate to be anti-Muslim.
Lately, the state of Gujarat, of which current Indian PM Modi was once a premier, had imposed a penalty of life-long imprisonment for anyone slaughtering cow, the staple food and sacrificial animal of minority Muslims. In Myanmar, Muslims are not even recognized as citizen, and, the Myanmar army has been conducting genocide against the Rohingya Muslims for decades, which the global leaders digested without much compunction or backlash.
Added to the anti-Muslim political agendas pursued by the USA under Donald Trump, and many of the EU member states, the global and regional ambiance has been fuelling much of the tension among the Bangladeshi Muslims who find themselves crushed by India with the help of an incumbent regime that had already allowed Bangladesh to be an Indian playground for geopolitical jockeying with China, with US help.
Oblivious government
Since coming to power in 2009, the government in Dhaka has been too opportunistic to allow anything, so long its tentacles on power remained unfazed. Consequently, particularly since 2015, many other militant groups mushroomed, according to media reports. Shaheed Hamza Brigade (SHB), Bangladesh Jihad Group (BJG), etc. are among them; according to police who had arrested many of their members.
We warned of such dangers coming since the 2007 military intervention in politics, and the military’s reported machination with India to install the Awami League government in 2009 with two- third majority to enable it to change the country’s constitution. It was no coincidence that an externally-triggered uprising in the border forces (BDR) brutally slaughtered 57 army officers in February 2009, the army later knowing who masterminded the mutiny.
By then it was too late to regret; genie was out of the bottle. And, ever since, the Islamists became more emboldened and their ranks and files swelled by participation of students from elite educational institutions, including of cadet colleges, academicians, businessmen, engineers, doctors, and officers and soldiers of the armed forces.
One former army officer, Major Jahid, had already been killed by police while an absconding Major Zia, who is from the army’s engineering corps, is believed to be leading operations from the hiding. Rumours also has it that sacked Brig. Gen. Golam Azmi, son of deceased Jamat leader Golam Azam, is leading another faction of militants hailing from Jamat’s student wing, Chatra Shibir. Major Zia and BG Azmi are both sword of honour winning officers of the Bangladesh Military Academy (BMA), according to sources.
Policy blunders
Yet, the AL-led regime always banked on force as the panacea for this cancerous illness facing the nation. The brutal attack and slaughtering of Hefajat-e-Islam activists in May 2013; barring of the Jamat-I-Islami from contesting future polling; mass arrest and persecutions of hundreds of thousands of political Islamists; muffling mass media freedom and the lynching of top Islamic leaders under the war crime proceedings had further fuelled the growth of militancy in a nation otherwise known as moderate, pacifist and Sufiism-inclined.
As well, the base of the militants soared further since the January 2014 election drama and the lingering of a parliament where majority of the members were elected un-opposed. It’s an irony that the same country is hosting the Inter Parliamentary Union (IPU) gathering while its own parliament is composed of unelected members and a phantom opposition party having ministers in the incumbent cabinet.
Moreover, the main opposition party now out of parliament, the BNP, is also deadly opposed to any defence pact with India. In totality, over 70 per cent of Bangladeshis are opposed to such a deal.
External linkage
It was only likely under such a fast deteriorating situation that the global Islamists will take advantage of this fluid situation in Bangladesh, which they did with ease and confidence. Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri announced in September 2014 that his outfit was establishing a branch in South Asia, to be known as Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). In February 2015, Zawahiri urged the Bangladeshis to launch an uprising in defence of Islam in Bangladesh.
Meanwhile, AQIS and the Islamic State (IS) have claimed their presence in the country on number of occasions and the Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), of which Major Zia is claimed by police to be an iconic leader, and which had declared its allegiance to AQIS, claimed responsibility for the murder of many atheist bloggers and publishers.
Yet, the government kept denying the local-global nexus, despite the AQIS claiming in a video posting on 2 May 2015 that it had consummated many of the ongoing targeted killings inside Bangladesh while the IS too claimed responsibility for a number of attacks conducted in late 2015, including those on foreigners. The most spectacular of those operations was the Gulshan Holy Artisan attack on July 1, 2016, in which 29 people were killed; including 18 foreigners, 2 locals, 2 police officers, 5 gunmen, and 2 bakery staff.
Defence pact with India
Amidst such a fluid situation, a defence agreement with India will only help the militants recruit more members and sympathisers. Lessons of history are not conducive either.
India did sign a comprehensive defence pact with Dhaka in 1972, soon after Indian soldiers helped liberate Bangladesh from Pakistan, which many analysts had attributed to as the main reason for the tragedy of August 15, 1975 in which Sheikh Mujib and most of his family members were murdered by a faction of the army.
Moreover, theoretically, having a defence pact with India is an oxymoron; due to Bangladesh’s threat perception being hinged on likely onslaughts from India or Myanmar. Delhi wants such a pact because, if it can tie up Dhaka into a binding defence pact, it can focus solely on Pakistan and China and carry troops across Bangladesh territory to the Indian Northeast to checkmate China across the snow-capped Arunachal Pradesh.
Decisive moment
It’s a decisive moment for Bangladesh; for a defence pact with India is virtually an anti-China pact, which has been the main source of arms and training for the Bangladesh military since the late 1970s and greased Bangladesh’s economic backbone constantly. Although the mask and the foil being used to justify signing such a pact is the increased instances of Islamic terrorism, the real reason lay somewhere else. That reason is geopolitical, which must be repulsed and rebutted at any cost.
It’s a little secret that public perception in Bangladesh is that, for decades, India only used Bangladesh as its market, corridor, and a hinterland to starve Bangladeshis with water deprivation from 54 common rivers. These anti-Indian anger lay behind the discovery of militant dens by police almost everywhere inside Bangladesh, and, behind the swelling of ranks and files of the militants by people and professionals of all denominations. As well, despite intelligence sharing remaining an ongoing process among many nation-states in this era of global terrorism, signing of any strategically collaborative agreement between Bangladesh and India will undercut and undermine the swagger, confidence and operational secrecy of Bangladesh armed forces and antagonize China that had invested huge economic and military fortunes inside Bangladesh over the decades.
And, in the long run, a defence deal between Dhaka and Delhi will be a disaster for both. The Islamists will not only cash on this new development, they will expand their sway and cross-border collaborations; triggering a full blown civil war inside Bangladesh and anti-Delhi uprisings among predominant Indian Muslims across the mutual borders.
Is the proposed defence deal imperative for Bangladesh?
Abdul Hannan
Military pacts or defence deals are always struck by two states or more out of common threat perception. In the fifties last century during the cold war Pakistan joined CENTO and SEATO, an essentially western alliance with USA, Britain, France, New Zealand and some Asian countries like Thailand, Philippines, Iran and Turkey to contain growing communist influence of China and Soviet Union respectively.
WARSAW Military pact by Soviet Russia with its satellite states comprising erstwhile East European states came into being to contain western military alliance represented by NATO. Recently America signed a military pact with India providing for refueling and repairing facilities of American military aircraft and war ships in Indian military bases to contain growing Chinese influences in the strategic Indian Ocean. The Obama Administration promoted the 12 nation Trans Pacific Partnership Trade Pact to contain expanding Chinese influence.
Why defence deal?
In 1971 India signed 25 years treaty of peace, friendship and cooperation with Soviet Union to contain perceived SINO American intervention in favour of Pakistan. The same treaty was later adopted for Indo Bangladesh cooperation. Saudi led Islamic military alliance by 39 Islamic states was forged in 2015 to fight terrorism particularly Islamic state (IS).
Bangladesh has no threat perception from any quarter as of now. We have no enemy real or assumed. So there is no need for a military deal with anybody. The cornerstone of Bangladesh foreign policy as enunciated by father of the nation, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman is friendship with all and malice to none. We are a non aligned nation. We are not pro this and anti that. We are Pro Bangladesh. As a small nation we dread of military alliances conceived by big powers to spread their sphere of influence. We wish to be left alone from big power rivalry. We are best friends of our nearest neighbours India and Myanmar and our not so distant neighbour China.
Newspaper comments and discussions by the civil society, particularly by former senior Bangladeshi diplomats have questioned the necessity of signing the proposed comprehensive defense deal with India for military cooperation, sales and supply of military hardware and coordinated operation against mutually perceived threat. They point out that now there is enough military cooperation with India by way of exchange of high level military contacts, joint military training and exercises and a formal military alliance will be superfluous and irrelevant.
Submarine purchase rattled India
As far as Bangladesh is concerned, there is no immediate provocation which warrants signing such a deal. Apparently, India might have some threat perception. According to Indian press reports, India was provoked to sign the agreement by increasing military cooperation between Bangladesh and China manifest by 80 percent of imports of Chinese hardware by Bangladesh over the past decade. They pointed out that the Indian move was precipitated by the supply of two Chinese submarines to Bangladesh indicating ‘deepening of Chinese footprints in India’s backyard complicating India’s security paradigm’.
They further said the sale rankled concerned circles in Delhi who questioned the need for Bangladesh to purchase two Chinese submarines considered offensive weaponry. Indian analysts interpreted the sale as a ‘Chinese strategy to encircle India’. Prabal Ghosh of the Observer Research Foundation as reported in the Outlook newspaper warns: ‘The sale’s strategic importance cannot be understated in any way’. He advocates steps ‘to prevent Bangladesh from playing the China card’.
They also pointed out that India was rattled by Chinese president Xi jinping's visit to Bangladesh in November 2016 when China pledged $24 billion assistance in trade and investment, buttressed by a promise to elevate relationship to strategic partnership in South Asia and the Indian Ocean considered as India’s exclusive sphere of influence. China's presence in the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal and Bangladesh joining China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) project is a matter of deep concern to India. These were alarm bells which prompted former Indian defense minister Monohar Parikkar and Indian foreign secretary Subramaniam Jaisankar to rush to Dhaka to clinch a defence agreement with Dhaka.
A ‘fair deal’ can’t be ‘imposed’
The proposed deal by all intents and purposes is an Indian initiative and agenda seemingly to contain China's growing influence in the Indian Ocean ream, alienate china from Bangladesh, preempt growing Sino Bangladesh military collaboration and blunt our strategic objectives and capabilities.
But China is a tested friend and trusted ally of Bangladesh. There is no reason for Bangladesh to offend and alienate china by opting for a deal which ostensibly will limit and circumscribe our independent military options and choices. It is fraught with deep uncertainties and risks of us being unwittingly sucked into to India’s potential conflicts with its adversaries. India is sufficiently strong to confront its adversary without dragging Bangladesh. Besides, India is the largest importer of arms in the world as the quality Indian defence products is not beyond question.
Bangladesh in recent times has addressed, with no hold barred without a quid pro quo or reciprocity, wide rang of India’s security and connectivity concerns by denying Bangladesh space for Indian insurgents from its troubled Northeastern states and by allowing transit and transport of Indian goods and passengers though roads, railway, river ports, Chittagong and Mongla ports to its north eastern states saving money and reducing time at great length. Bangladesh has given India everything it asked for in a platter.
Bangladesh offered the use of river port of Asuganj to transport heavy duty equipment for Palatona power company in Tripura by strangulating and tearing apart the Teesta river to make a by pass road. Bangladesh also arranged transport of 10 thousand tons rice to Tripura through its territory. Yet, a done deal on water sharing of Teesta river has floundered, stymied and stonewalled as it is by India.
Maintain equidistance
Like the English poet Wordsworth said about the bounty of nature, ‘We receive but what we give’. In the same refrain of introspection, India may ask itself, ‘We receive from Bangladesh but what we give them’. Is it not too much to expect from Bangladesh to sign a defence deal with India? It is a last straw on the camel’s back.
There is no compulsion for Bangladesh to go for signing the deal. The strength of the government rests on popular support and not by outside help. The present Bangladesh government to its credit is successfully following a quadruple equidistant tightrope walking foreign policy with America, Russia, China and India without tilting to one side or the other. The deal will seriously compromise our independent posture.
If the current public discourse here on the subject is any indication, this is an extremely unpopular measure which has the potential of deep political fallout and backlash of damaging consequences. The government with booming economy and significant trade surplus is firmly in the driver’s seat to steer clear of any outside pressure detrimental to its national interest. There is no doubting Prime Minister Hasina, who had impeccable credentials as a patriot and nationalist, will resist and forestall such an asymmetric defence deal or MOUs whatever you name it.
Defence deal with India will not be justifiable
A vehement chorus of disapproval and remonstration has been raging among Dhaka’s civil society actors, newspaper columnists, eminent citizens and diplomats, except a few pro-Indian persons conspicuously devoid of patriotism and unconcerned about national interest, as Delhi is intent on inking a defence deal with Bangladesh against the backdrop of Sino-Indian rivalry. For the record, Sino-Indian relations are likely to become strained as the Dalai Lama is scheduled to visit Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh this week which, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, will “only damage peace and stability of the border areas and bilateral relations.” China views the Dalai Lama’s visit to Tawang, an area of cultural and political significance to Tibetans, as potentially destabilizing. [Vide “Arunachal, Cultural and Strategic Flashpoint For Sino-Indian Relations”; refworld.org/docid/587cc \4224.html;13 January 2017].
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has threatened China with war on North Korea; and that war will not only be catastrophic for the people of the Korean peninsula but could drag in other major powers, including China, its ally Pakistan, Russia, Japan and other military powers, including those armed with nukes. It is here that the danger of world war arises. In the event of an absolutely pointless defence deal with India, Bangladesh—-because of its folly—-will be inescapably sucked into a lethal whirlpool of nuclear Armageddon.
Meanwhile, purchasing two Chinese submarines angered Delhi, subsequently the Indian defence secretary visited Dhaka, while Indian Army Chief Bipin Rawat had a three-day visit here. Dhaka never had or has any stupid wish—-even in its wildest dream—-to be unfriendly with the closest neighbour India or Myanmar, so why should a question of a deal arise? Can Bangladesh afford to attack India? Besides, India herself imports an enormous number of military hardware—-then is there any logic in buying from an importer?
Furthermore, a defence deal will be a useless proposition, a foolhardy act against the will of the masses. The people here are grateful to India for its cooperation during 1971 Liberation War in which 3 million people made supreme sacrifice. By the same token, India too should be grateful to Bangladesh which is her friend; for this reason India is relieved of the colossal burden of maintaining several divisions of troops and armaments in the Eastern frontier as she used to before 1972.
Bangladeshis are bitter about India for a variety of cogent reasons. These are: frequent killing of Bangladeshi civilians on the borders. In December 2010, Human Rights Watch released a report, “Trigger Happy: Excessive Use of Force by at the Bangladesh Border”, on December 9, 2010, documenting indiscriminate extrajudicial killings, arbitrary detention, torture, and ill-treatment by the Indian BSF troops.
[hrw.org/report/2010/12/09/trigger-happy/excessive-use-force-indian-troops-bangladesh-border
] How friendly is India? On the 4,096-kilometre long Bangladesh-India international border. 3406 kilometres will be fenced with barbed wire and concrete at a cost of US$430 million, of which 2735 kilometres of the fencing was completed by November 2007. Is it a friendly gesture?
For more than a decade, India has secretly provided arms and money to tribal insurgents —- Chakma and other tribes in the Chittagong Hills—-fighting for an autonomous state in Bangladesh, rebels given sanctuary in this border areas. A senior security official at Agartala, India, confirmed such assistance and said an undetermined number of rebel fighters had stayed along the border near camps of Indian paramilitary forces. “The Government is giving them help,” the official added, without elaborating. [Vide Bangladeshi Insurgents Say India Is Supporting Them by Sanjoy Hazarika; nytimes. com/1989/ 06/11/ world/ Bangladeshi -insurgents-say -india-is-supporting -them dated June 11, 1989]
Friendly India’s withdrawal of the Ganges water at Farakka Barrage, which dries up the Padma river from November to June, is an endless agony. India has wanton disregard for co-riparian Dhaka’s water needs as the parched Teesta remains a vast sand dune, like the Padma, from November to June; whopping trade imbalance and so on.
Dhaka is Delhi’s great benefactor. According to the World Bank, Bangladesh ranks fifth (behind the UAE, the USA, Saudi Arabia and the UK) among the top 15 countries from which India draws remittance from her expatriates. Indian expats in Bangladesh remit over $3.7 billion yearly. [Vide Dr. Habib Siddiqui weekly holiday.net/ homepage/ pages/UserHome. aspx?ID =5&date=03/07/2014]
We wish to presume, PM Sheikh Hasina, elder daughter of the nation’s architect Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, will not sign any deal or MoU that will be detrimental to Bangladesh’s sovereignty and security, keeping in mind that her motherland is significantly great in terms of population, economy and one of the top defence forces of the world which can take care of themselves. [Vide “Dhaka-Delhi defence pact? No, thanks” by Shahid Islam, Holiday, March 17, 2017].
In sum, Bangladesh is proud of her Army which has a glorious heritage. All told, a highly contentious and sensitive issue like an unnecessary defence deal inviting peril for Dhaka must not be signed as it is fraught with multiple grave dangers.
BNP oppose any defence deal with India.
BNP senior leader Khandaker Mosharraf Hossain on Wednesday called upon India not to sign any defence deal during Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to New Delhi as the people of Bangladesh are against such an agreement.
“Bangladesh people are unaware of the (defence) deal and they also think there’s no necessity of it. So, we call upon our friendly country India to refrain from striking any such controversial agreement,” he said.
Mosharraf, a BNP standing committee member, came up with the call at a discussion arranged by Jatiyatabadi Mohila Dal at the Jatiya Press Club, marking the Independence Day.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is scheduled to undertake a state visit from April 07-10 at the invitation of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Foreign Minister on Tuesday said Bangladesh and India may sign over 30 deals and MoUs during the Prime Minister’s tour. Hasina will hold an official talk with her Indian counterpart Narendra Modi in New Delhi on April 8.
Amid the speculation that Hasina may sign a defence deal or MoU with India, BNP has long been saying that people will not accept such a deal as it may put the country’s independence and sovereignty at stake.
Mosharraf questioned the justification of signing the defence deal when Bangladesh is surrounded by India from three sides while the other side by the Bay of Bengal. “India is our very trusted friend. We don’t think Bangladesh will be attacked by India. So, the Prime Minister should tell people the reason for signing the deal.”
He warned that the country’s people will resist with all-out efforts if any anti-state and illogical deal is signed with India.
The BNP leader suggested the Prime Minister to attach main priority to resolving water problem with India during her tour. “People’s main expectation is to have the Teesta deal signed. Your visit will be fruitless if you can’t sign the agreement.”
He criticised the government for suspending three BNP-backed mayors recently after joining office following the Supreme Court order. “It’s an unprecedented incident.” Coming down hard on Awami League general secretary Obaidul Quader for his remark that the Prime Minister is unaware of the three mayors’ suspension, Mosharraf questioned who is running the country when such a major decision was taken out of the Prime Minister’s knowledge.
Meanwhile, BNP slams govt for ‘failure’ to sign Teesta deal Alleging that the current government is accountable to a particular country, not to people, BNP senior vice chairman Hafizuddin Ahmed on Wednesday said Bangladesh will not get the due share of water of Teesta and other common rivers unless a pro-people government comes to power.
“Our main problem with India is over water. India is determined not to give us (due share of) water... our Foreign Minister said it matters little whether the Teesta deal is signed or not. He could make such a comment as the government is not accountable to people since they’re not elected with people’s votes,”Hafiz said.
Speaking at a seminar, he further said, “The country’s people won’t get the due share of water as long as a pro-people government is installed in power. We’ll continue to suffer for lack of water as the current government is accountable to another country.”
South Asia Youth for Peace and Prosperity Society arranged the seminar titled ‘Bangladesh-India Water Dispute’ at Dhaka Reporters’ Unity (DRU). Hafiz, a former Water Resources Minister, alleged that the government has fulfilled all the demands of India, but did not get anything from it in return.
He said it is necessary to draw international attention to solve the water problem with the neighbouring country. “A joint river commission was formed with a pledge to hold four meetings every year to ensure the due share of common rivers. But no meeting was held in the last 10 years. The government has failed to resolve the water problem.
About the media speculation that a defence deal to be singed during the Prime Minister’s tour, the BNP leader urged the government not to sign any deal with India that will put the country’s independence and sovereignty at stake.
Opposing the defence deal, Hafiz said, “India is a war-loving country and it used to engage in fight with Pakistan and China. If such a deal is signed, we’ll have to take part in the war to be waged by India against any country.”
Speaking at the programme, Gonoshasthaya Kendra founder Dr Zafrullah Chowdhury said India has committed a crime against humanity by depriving Bangladesh of its due share of water. “Crime against humanity is only committed by killing people. If the natural flow of water is disturbed and it causes death to people, it is also a crime against humanity.”
He urged the Prime Minister to make her best efforts during her India tour to protect Bangladesh’s interests and ensure the welfare of its people.
....so much so that they are now scared to leave their western refuges.
