Don’t be surprised by China’s collapse

[gambit]

China can also change their policy regarding immigrant population. For the time being the population decline has not impacted her economy yet.

Also AI robotic and 4th industrial revolution could help China to grow in spite of population decline.

You talk as if the copulation decline will never impact the Chinese economy. It already has.

As for robots, it is human who consumes, robots do not. A capitalist economy MUST be a consumption economy. Robots do not have have children, buy washer/dryer, enjoy social media, etc. It is the 20-40 age groups that consumes and they are already shrinking in China.

 

[antonius123]

You talk as if the copulation decline will never impact the Chinese economy. It already has.

As for robots, it is human who consumes, robots do not. A capitalist economy MUST be a consumption economy. Robots do not have have children, buy washer/dryer, enjoy social media, etc. It is the 20-40 age groups that consumes and they are already shrinking in China.

Where is evidence populaton decline has impacted Chinese economy NOW?

Population decline will more impact production sector than consumer sector, as the population decline will restrain production expansion and increase production cost.

With AI robot and 4th industrial revolution, production can be kept increase even if population declines, while salary can remain to increase because the scarecity of manpower. Then by the increase of the buying power consumption will also increase.

Also consider the digital money that will help government to control national consumption and production in the future.

 

[indushek]

You talk as if the copulation decline will never impact the Chinese economy. It already has.

As for robots, it is human who consumes, robots do not. A capitalist economy MUST be a consumption economy. Robots do not have have children, buy washer/dryer, enjoy social media, etc. It is the 20-40 age groups that consumes and they are already shrinking in China.

This

It is really important, given China's move towards a capitalist system

For China this also poses another problem, given that its internal consumption hasn't grown much. If the internal consumption grows up, they can be insulated from external economic shocks. This however is not the case as of now, and will pose a challenge with declining population.

Where is evidence populaton decline has impacted Chinese economy NOW?

Population decline will more impact production sector than consumer sector, as the population decline will restrain production expansion and increase production cost.

With AI robot and 4th industrial revolution, production can be kept increase even if population declines, while salary can remain to increase because the scarecity of manpower. Then by the increase of the buying power consumption will also increase.

Also consider the digital money that will help government to control national consumption and production in the future.

Wouldn't that depend, on external factors though?

I mean what you say, depends on the factor of demand being constant or ever increasing. With the trend of decoupling, which I agree cannot happen immediately for now -- the future demand could shrink.

For it to at least remain constant, China has to find markets alternative to West who can buy at similar scale.

The bolded part above is self contradicting - Yes with automation, lesser people can still manage to keep the capacity intact. However the AI and Robots don't consume, so its just the people. With lesser people consumption can't increase?

 

[antonius123]

This

It is really important, given China's move towards a capitalist system

For China this also poses another problem, given that its internal consumption hasn't grown much. If the internal consumption grows up, they can be insulated from external economic shocks. This however is not the case as of now, and will pose a challenge with declining population.

China current economic slowdown is not because of population decline; this is more because of slowing down of production due to previous covid pandemic, and it also happen with many other nations.

The impact of population decline will be felt in the long run, not suddenly, also if we see the demographic chart of China for the next 5 years the population of age 20 - 40 will still be stable

Wouldn't that depend, on external factors though?

I mean what you say, depends on the factor of demand being constant or ever increasing. With the trend of decoupling, which I agree cannot happen immediately for now -- the future demand could shrink.

For it to at least remain constant, China has to find markets alternative to West who can buy at similar scale.

The bolded part above is self contradicting - Yes with automation, lesser people can still manage to keep the capacity intact. However the AI and Robots don't consume, so its just the people. With lesser people consumption can't increase?

Nope. The effect of decoupling on economy slowdown will not only impact China, but West and the world too.

 

[indushek]

China current economic slowdown is not because of population decline; this is more because of slowing down of production due to previous covid pandemic, and it also happen with many other nations.

The impact of population decline will be felt in the long run, not suddenly, also if we see the demographic chart of China for the next 5 years the population of age 20 - 40 will still be stable

View attachment 957498




Nope. The effect of decoupling on economy slowdown will not only impact China, but West and the world too.

Well I never said in any of my posts above, that the slowdown is due to population decline.

The point am making is that, this population decline will be one of the major factors in future and not right now. I mentioned clearly, it will take at least a decade if not two for China to feel the effect of this.

Good point about other countries feeling effects of decoupling, but it will settle down over time for the others, when the supply chains shift and stabilize finally. China however will have to find alternative markets, to keep its economy growing at a certain level.

Like I said, all these factors will take time to show their effects. A decade at least, so it all depends on CCP and Xi on how they navigate. Its future we are talking, so we can never be sure how it will turn out exactly.

 

[Haldorss]

actual evidence of demographic collapse of america (whites will be minority by 2040)

So you think other Anglosaxons are going to sail on through all this huh? Where do you get that idea from?

 

[ziaulislam]

It seems you are a victim of their propaganda.

Europe's population is declining too, but they still grow.
And the impact of population decline will impact China economy in the future not now.

He is bigot whey pay attention and waste your time

China has much bigger problems than fertility rate. More babies right now will cause more hungry mouths in the future.

No sane person would say that..over blown and really stupid.
E.g per capital income of Chinese is 6(3 times nominal!!) times that of indians do we say that indians can't eat anything??

Guy who is spurting none sense in video that started this thread is guy with Alzheimer's he has no idea what he is talking about

Chinese can feed their people for 100 years with 1 year of defense budget

So let's don't be dramatic

Youth gig workers have been facing issues with slow down and decrease spending.. nothing that a stimulus can't fix

 

[Han Patriot]

He is bigot whey pay attention and waste your time


No sane person would say that..over blown and really stupid.
E.g per capital income of Chinese is 6(3 times nominal!!) times that of indians do we say that indians can't eat anything??

Guy who is spurting none sense in video that started this thread is guy with Alzheimer's he has no idea what he is talking about

Chinese can feed their people for 100 years with 1 year of defense budget

So let's don't be dramatic

Youth gig workers have been facing issues with slow down and decrease spending.. nothing that a stimulus can't fix

Indians should really solve their toilet issue. China has some dirty toilets and some people shitting by the highway in an emergency, but I had never seen ppl shit routinely on the streets in China.

 

[AViet]

The sources that OP has to look at demonstrate the level of desperation anti-china camp is in. More and more people in the anti-china camp have to resort to more extreme measures of delusion and sources i.e random internet articles and tweets while China members provide actual evidence of demographic collapse of america (whites will be minority by 2040)

American are desperate to prove that they are still something on the world stage, not unlike the Indian back in early 2010s, when I joined this forum, when they tried so hard to prove that they were on par with China.

 

[beijingwalker]

 

[antonius123]

Well I never said in any of my posts above, that the slowdown is due to population decline.

The point am making is that, this population decline will be one of the major factors in future and not right now. I mentioned clearly, it will take at least a decade if not two for China to feel the effect of this.

Good point about other countries feeling effects of decoupling, but it will settle down over time for the others, when the supply chains shift and stabilize finally. China however will have to find alternative markets, to keep its economy growing at a certain level.

Like I said, all these factors will take time to show their effects. A decade at least, so it all depends on CCP and Xi on how they navigate. Its future we are talking, so we can never be sure how it will turn out exactly.

It is hilarious hearing you say decoupling only disadvantage China not the west and rest of the world. Decoupling means both sides China and West will rearrange their supply chains, for China she will be independent and free from western technology and also west from China tech, it will be good for China rather than west in the long run because so far China depend on western technology than the otherway round; but during the rearranging process both sides will suffer loss.

A decade will be enough for China to mature her AI robotic and 4th industry technology to overcome the decline of manpower. These AI robots and 4th industrial revolution will be advantageous for China and US but will be disadvantageous for populous countries like India, because China/US can produce cheap garment with fully automation cheaper than India's factory can produce manually.

 

[_killuminati_]

China can probably ride out a population decline considering it is a pioneer in AI development - AI that is increasingly replacing the human workforce.

 

[epebble]

Japan managed to get rich before it got old. It also has had 40 years to try different strategies. It is still in big trouble. You can, by the way, buy rural houses in Japan for free. It has worked itself, literally, into this demographic disaster. But by amassing per capita wealth before it got old it is doing better than China will likely achieve. The aged-dependency ratio, just for instance, is being hard felt in Japan, it will likely be crippling in China.

Korea, demographically speaking, is a dead man walking. China currently has a (horrific) TFR of 1.08. To sustain a population you need a TFR of 2.1 (not 2.0). Korea has a mind blowing TFR of 0.7. All it means is that Korea is plunging off the demographic cliff into disaster at an even steeper plunge. Just because there is an example of an even worse demographic collapse in progress should provide no comfort whatsoever.

Europe or at least Western Europe is also not looking good but once again it got rich before it got old. In addition it has been able to kick the can down the road by being a migrant destination, something that Chinese (and Japanese and Korean thus far) social norms cannot emulate.

The thing about demographics is that trends are pretty much baked in for at least a generation or so. We have a pretty good idea of how many children will be born in 20 years time because we know how many 0-30 year old there are today. There is no country on Earth that, upon dipping below the sustainable level of 2.1, has managed to up its TFR back above it. At most, some Northern European countries have managed to temporarily up their TFR from, say, the likes of 1.4 to 1.5 by spending a lot of money on pro natalist policies and programs.

China turned a fertily decline that would have happened anyway due to urbanization and industrialization into a fertility collapse with its one child policy.
It belatedly started accepting the reality of the forthcoming disaster when it raised its child limit policy from 1 to 2 and then to 3 and just this year seems to have, belatedly, fully come to its senses and removed all restrictions. Some would say it is too little, too late.

China has, demographically/statistically speaking (not literally), not only run out of children but has also run out of young adults to have those children. It boggles the mind to consider any way that China could reverse it even if it would somehow institute a Hand-Maiden level of fertility programs. However I do look forward to how China tries. Perhaps they will indeed surprise us all with an absolute miracle. A declining China will be felt hard by the entire world.


PS. For those that just don't get the problem of declining/collapsing total fertility rates, consider this:

China's fertility rate drops to record low 1.09 in 2022- state media

China's fertility rate is estimated to have dropped to a record low of 1.09 in 2022, the National Business Daily said on Tuesday, a figure likely to rattle authorities as they try to boost the country's declining number of new births.

www.reuters.com

Demographics of China - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Absolutely the last thing China has to worry about is running out of people. It will be centuries before China reaches a pleasant population of, say, 300 million, where people can stretch their hands without bumping into another's nose.

 

[beijingwalker]

Absolutely the last thing China has to worry about is running out of people. It will be centuries before China reaches a pleasant population of, say, 300 million, where people can stretch their hands without bumping into another's nose.

China is running out of people

From yesterday's video, Chinese national day holiday, "people mountain, people sea" all across China

 

[epebble]

China is running out of people

From yesterday's video, Chinese national day holiday, "people mountain, people sea" all across China

It is amazing China is able to manage such vast oceans of humanity without fear of stampedes. Just the sight of it gives me Ochlophobia.