Don’t be surprised by China’s collapse

[Taskforce]

Interesting arguments…

 

[Muji.Iqbal]

Don't have time to see the whole video.

@Title, China is about to be the world's largest economy on NOMINAL GDP.

Anyone who says China is collapsing is either ignorant or an idiot.

@beijingwalker
@ChineseTiger1986
@chinasun

 

[retaxis]

The sources that OP has to look at demonstrate the level of desperation anti-china camp is in. More and more people in the anti-china camp have to resort to more extreme measures of delusion and sources i.e random internet articles and tweets while China members provide actual evidence of demographic collapse of america (whites will be minority by 2040)

 

[epebble]

Interesting arguments…

Before anyone gets surprised/shocked by his statements, these are his credentials:

Zeihan was born in 1973, and grew up as the adopted son of educators Jerald and Agnes Zeihan in Marshalltown, Iowa. He graduated from Marshalltown High School in 1992. In 1995, he obtained a BSc in Political Science from what then was Northeast Missouri State University, and a postgraduate diploma in Asian studies from University of Otago (Dunedin, New Zealand) in 1997.

Not exactly the sharpest knife in the drawer. Reduced to earning his livelihood by peddling fantastic 'stories'.

Peter Zeihan - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[antonius123]

Before anyone gets surprised/shocked by his statements, these are his credentials:

Zeihan was born in 1973, and grew up as the adopted son of educators Jerald and Agnes Zeihan in Marshalltown, Iowa. He graduated from Marshalltown High School in 1992. In 1995, he obtained a BSc in Political Science from what then was Northeast Missouri State University, and a postgraduate diploma in Asian studies from University of Otago (Dunedin, New Zealand) in 1997.

Not exactly the sharpest knife in the drawer. Reduced to earning his livelihood by peddling fantastic 'stories'.

Peter Zeihan - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

No use.

A propagandist will instantly loose his credibility that he has built not long after he decided to become a propagandist either for the sake of his paycheck or for his idealism.

 

[ziaulislam]

China has to be collapsing since it's growing at 5%


Yes, in 20 yrs I will be worried if demographics don't correct (aging population) but the ones who should be worried first about that is Japan Korea and Europe ..they have much older population then china

China needs fertility rate at 2.0 ASAP to stop the rapid inverse pyramid

It also needs to rapidly move to high tech industry and be less reliant on real estate and exports as driver of economy

 

[Taskforce]

China has to be collapsing since it's growing at 5%


Yes, in 20 yrs I will be worried if demographics don't correct (aging population) but the ones who should be worried first about that is Japan Korea and Europe ..they have much older population then china

China needs fertility rate at 2.0 ASAP to stop the rapid inverse pyramid

It also needs to rapidly move to high tech industry and be less reliant on real estate and exports as driver of economy

China has much bigger problems than fertility rate. More babies right now will cause more hungry mouths in the future.

 

[StraightEdge]

Before anyone gets surprised/shocked by his statements, these are his credentials:

Zeihan was born in 1973, and grew up as the adopted son of educators Jerald and Agnes Zeihan in Marshalltown, Iowa. He graduated from Marshalltown High School in 1992. In 1995, he obtained a BSc in Political Science from what then was Northeast Missouri State University, and a postgraduate diploma in Asian studies from University of Otago (Dunedin, New Zealand) in 1997.

Not exactly the sharpest knife in the drawer. Reduced to earning his livelihood by peddling fantastic 'stories'.

Peter Zeihan - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

At least he is not an 'English teacher' who used to teach how to greet people saying 'good morning'. Few of these internet 'analysts' are frauds.

 

[A Voice of Reason]

China has to be collapsing since it's growing at 5%


Yes, in 20 yrs I will be worried if demographics don't correct (aging population) but the ones who should be worried first about that is Japan Korea and Europe ..they have much older population then china

China needs fertility rate at 2.0 ASAP to stop the rapid inverse pyramid

It also needs to rapidly move to high tech industry and be less reliant on real estate and exports as driver of economy

Japan managed to get rich before it got old. It also has had 40 years to try different strategies. It is still in big trouble. You can, by the way, buy rural houses in Japan for free. It has worked itself, literally, into this demographic disaster. But by amassing per capita wealth before it got old it is doing better than China will likely achieve. The aged-dependency ratio, just for instance, is being hard felt in Japan, it will likely be crippling in China.

Korea, demographically speaking, is a dead man walking. China currently has a (horrific) TFR of 1.08. To sustain a population you need a TFR of 2.1 (not 2.0). Korea has a mind blowing TFR of 0.7. All it means is that Korea is plunging off the demographic cliff into disaster at an even steeper plunge. Just because there is an example of an even worse demographic collapse in progress should provide no comfort whatsoever.

Europe or at least Western Europe is also not looking good but once again it got rich before it got old. In addition it has been able to kick the can down the road by being a migrant destination, something that Chinese (and Japanese and Korean thus far) social norms cannot emulate.

The thing about demographics is that trends are pretty much baked in for at least a generation or so. We have a pretty good idea of how many children will be born in 20 years time because we know how many 0-30 year old there are today. There is no country on Earth that, upon dipping below the sustainable level of 2.1, has managed to up its TFR back above it. At most, some Northern European countries have managed to temporarily up their TFR from, say, the likes of 1.4 to 1.5 by spending a lot of money on pro natalist policies and programs.

China turned a fertily decline that would have happened anyway due to urbanization and industrialization into a fertility collapse with its one child policy.
It belatedly started accepting the reality of the forthcoming disaster when it raised its child limit policy from 1 to 2 and then to 3 and just this year seems to have, belatedly, fully come to its senses and removed all restrictions. Some would say it is too little, too late.

China has, demographically/statistically speaking (not literally), not only run out of children but has also run out of young adults to have those children. It boggles the mind to consider any way that China could reverse it even if it would somehow institute a Hand-Maiden level of fertility programs. However I do look forward to how China tries. Perhaps they will indeed surprise us all with an absolute miracle. A declining China will be felt hard by the entire world.


PS. For those that just don't get the problem of declining/collapsing total fertility rates, consider this:

China's fertility rate drops to record low 1.09 in 2022- state media

China's fertility rate is estimated to have dropped to a record low of 1.09 in 2022, the National Business Daily said on Tuesday, a figure likely to rattle authorities as they try to boost the country's declining number of new births.

www.reuters.com

Demographics of China - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[gambit]

No use.

A propagandist will instantly loose his credibility that he has built not long after he decided to become a propagandist either for the sake of his paycheck or for his idealism.

China is undergoing a copulation decline. Maybe YOU could move to China and help out with your little tadpoles.

 

[antonius123]

China is undergoing a copulation decline. Maybe YOU could move to China and help out with your little tadpoles.

It seems you are a victim of their propaganda.

Europe's population is declining too, but they still grow.
And the impact of population decline will impact China economy in the future not now.

 

[gambit]

It seems you are a victim of their propaganda.

Europe's population is declining too, but they still grow.
And the impact of population decline will impact China economy in the future not now.

This is not about Europe.

Animated Chart: China’s Aging Population (1950-2100)

See why China is facing a demographic crisis in this animated chart.

www.visualcapitalist.com

You can force people to abort but you cannot force them to have sex. You better move to China quick.

 

[indushek]

It seems you are a victim of their propaganda.

Europe's population is declining too, but they still grow.
And the impact of population decline will impact China economy in the future not now.

One difference could be that, West in general has the positive of immigrant population. They can maintain population levels more or less, and if any country feels endangered more can be welcomed.

This is not the case with East, at least for now.

Issues like fertility decline on a nation level, won't show up that easily. Takes time

On-topic: If anyone expects China to suddenly go kaput, in some drastic way over night they are either fools or live in make believe world. China will be a bigger version of Japan, technologically and economically powerful but with laggard growth rate.

Will take time for the demographic problem, to catch up with decision makers (in both strategic and micro level as well) for at least a decade if not two. So it all depends, on what the Politburo members and Xi Jinping do to tackle issues vis a vis declining economic growth rate along with the local issues.

Needless to say, the model followed of manufacturing my way out will see a shift given current geopolitics and rising income levels.

 

[antonius123]

One difference could be that, West in general has the positive of immigrant population. They can maintain population levels more or less, and if any country feels endangered more can be welcomed.

This is not the case with East, at least for now.

Issues like fertility decline on a nation level, won't show up that easily. Takes time

China can also change their policy regarding immigrant population. For the time being the population decline has not impacted her economy yet.

Also AI robotic and 4th industrial revolution could help China to grow in spite of population decline.

 

[indushek]

China can also change their policy regarding immigrant population. For the time being the population decline has not impacted her economy yet.

Also AI robotic and 4th industrial revolution could help China to grow in spite of population decline.

Agreed, and we will have to wait and see. I just edited my above post, adding my thoughts on the topic by the way. It pretty much mirrors what you say

If the Politburo and Xi, can take decisions to reverse the slowdown.. they can make it out of it. So it all depends on them.

As for the AI and Robots, somehow I feel that these aren't suited for large countries like China and India. Such large countries usually have large population, and automation to that level will mean lesser employment opportunities. Who knows what the future holds though, so again we will have to wait and see.