Do you think Bangladesh would join Belt and Road Initiative without India?

[Centaur]

Not surprising at all. Mujib was one of the most influencial political leaders in southeast Asia. Its quite obvious that small type leaders from other countries will try to emulate his style. Nothing wrong with that.

I though according to hasina the Holy Mujib coat became unholy since Pakistan PM wearing it!
Wondering what would happen if jamat Islam start wearing Mujib coat and speak for Pakistan!

Nope i don't think so.

We shouldn't join

India is our bosom friend.

We should not do anything without consulting with our eternal friend.

I am not sure if you are kidding or not . If it's sarcastic post then that's fine! If not then I am surprising, as a Bangladeshi why you are speaking against BD interest? Correct me ( and forgive me too) please if I am wrong!
@Neptune_

 

[HariPrasad]

BD is a land lock country. Can it be in road -belt without India being involved?

 

[Neptune_]

I though according to hasina the Holy Mujib coat became unholy since Pakistan PM wearing it!
Wondering what would happen if jamat Islam start wearing Mujib coat and speak for Pakistan!


I am not sure if you are kidding or not . If it's sarcastic then that's fine! If not then I am surprising, as a Bangladeshi why you are speaking against BD interest? Correct me ( and forgive me too) please if I am wrong!
@Neptune_

Chill Bro. I was being sarcastic. Actually most of my posts r in that taste. Don't take them seriously

 

[Centaur]

Chill Bro. I was being sarcastic. Actually most of my posts r in that taste. Don't take them seriously

Understood bro, thank you !

 

[Mage]

Can have a look for yourself:

I don't understand all the terms listed...so I only take the first one, the one I understand.

Hmm....Debt in 2008, 23 Billion. GDP 91 Billion. Debt = 25% of GDP.
Debt in 2016, 41 Billion. GDP 221 Billion. Debt = 18% of GDP.

Can we call it increasing?

 

[Al-zakir]

Natures order

I wonder how conventional be like

 

[El Sidd]

I wonder how conventional be like

Still the same

 

[Flynn Swagmire]

If we benefit from this, then no need to give a flying fuk about !ndia...

 

[Nilgiri]

I don't understand all the terms listed...so I only take the first one, the one I understand.

Hmm....Debt in 2008, 23 Billion. GDP 91 Billion. Debt = 25% of GDP.
Debt in 2016, 41 Billion. GDP 221 Billion. Debt = 18% of GDP.

Can we call it increasing?

a) 2008 is a bad reference to use given the real increase (ramp) happened in just the last 4 or so years...about a 50% increase in gross intake. India in comparison is around 16% or so increase in same period.

b) Using GDP for denominator has a serious limitation when talking about BD (I stumbled across this recently) in the BBS critical article on the rebasing using sampled units like real household income levels (which have declined from 2010 shockingly). Till BD gets to GDDS prime level or preferably SDDS, there is no real way to tell how much inflation is effectively being laundered by BBS into its Taka GDP figure....i.e the GDP nominal level (Take or USD) for me is now more questionable (and may explain some of why BD PPP multiplier is far lower than the region i.e India, Pakistan) than I originally thought. Please refer to:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/repo...ality-credibility.525379/page-2#post-10406818

c) You will also need to look at the short term debt ramp taking shape. It used to be holding steady at around 2 billion level till 2012. Now it suddenly ramped up 4 times to 8 billion. If you split into long and short term, long term is relatively holding steady....but BD is ramping on the short term (leading to overall situation in (a)). The level used to be holding steady at 8% of total debt, now its 20% and increasing. Short term debt carries much higher premium and arises when a country cannot raise its long term debt level sustainably by improving its credit rating. This adds a BoP pressure that will not happen with more solid deep reform. This is especially concerning because BD has definitely not seen a 4 time increase in the period of its total market cap in DSE or more specifically its bond market. Compare to India where the short term debt holds steady around the 20% (+/- 3) of total debt for the last decade and it has seen massive expansion of both its market cap and bond market denominators too (these are relevant given the Mx velocities that befuddled compatriot of yours and he went into spin mode)

 

[UKBengali]

c) You will also need to look at the short term debt ramp taking shape. It used to be holding steady at around 2 billion level till 2012. Now it suddenly ramped up 4 times to 8 billion. If you split into long and short term, long term is relatively holding steady....but BD is ramping on the short term (leading to overall situation in (a)). The level used to be holding steady at 8% of total debt, now its 20% and increasing. Short term debt carries much higher premium and arises when a country cannot raise its long term debt level sustainably by improving its credit rating. This adds a BoP pressure that will not happen with more solid deep reform. This is especially concerning because BD has definitely not seen a 4 time increase in the period of its total market cap in DSE or more specifically its bond market. Compare to India where the short term debt holds steady around the 20% (+/- 3) of total debt for the last decade and it has seen massive expansion of both its market cap and bond market denominators too (these are relevant given the Mx velocities that befuddled compatriot of yours and he went into spin mode)

BD tax revenue has nearly doubled in real terms in the last 6 years.

It is not just a % of total debt that we need to worry about but also as a percentage of total tax revenue. If you look at short term debt as % of revenue it is not going up.

BD has extremely low levels of both short and long term debt for it's tax revenues and rapidly growing economy.
Taking on some extra debt for critical infrastructure will more than pay off - remember BD only builds infrastructure for specific economic and social reasons - it does not do "White Elephants" for show as in some other countries.

 

[Nilgiri]

BD tax revenue has nearly doubled in real terms in the last 6 years.

According to???

It is not just a % of total debt that we need to worry about but also as a percentage of total tax revenue. If you look at short term debt as % of revenue it is not going up.

Again its a lousy argument given

a) this debt is not only govt debt

b) the tax revenue is not SDDS standard and vulnerable to more BBS shenanigans, just like the GDP increasingly looks like (given household income stagnancy, reported by same BBS). Market cap increase (which would correlate to HNIs too) is nowhere near enough to make up the difference, neither the claimed GCF incrase (given effective investment tax is very low for these).

c) DSE market cap and equivalents are really the only denominators that can be 3rd party fact checked (and thus proxy SDDS) because of the ample hedging/transaction inside it....just like foreign trade, investment and debt. It has not increased at any decent clip correlating to previous EM's (claimed or real) revenue pool increase. This is just as concerning as the household income stagnancy.

BD has extremely low levels of both short and long term debt for it's tax revenues and rapidly growing economy.
Taking on some extra debt for critical infrastructure will more than pay off - remember BD only builds infrastructure for specific economic and social reasons - it does not do "White Elephants" for show as in some other countries.

The whole thing about white-elephants is that you need hindsight for that to happen. The time has not elapsed in BD's case given the ramp now has just started. Same goes for the long term opportunity costs effects of these loans being way higher than they need to be given BD's terrible bureaucracy +corruption + underdeveloped private sector.

 

[Neptune_]

I don't understand all the terms listed...so I only take the first one, the one I understand.

Hmm....Debt in 2008, 23 Billion. GDP 91 Billion. Debt = 25% of GDP.
Debt in 2016, 41 Billion. GDP 221 Billion. Debt = 18% of GDP.

Can we call it increasing?

What is India's Debt to GDP Ratio

External Debt to GDP

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/india/external-debt--of-nominal-gdp

Total Govt Debt to GDP Ratio

Bangladesh Total DEBT to GDP

 

[Kaniska]

BD should join the initiatives that it perceives good for them...Apart from the noise in PDF, fact of the matter is India and BD are geographically dependent on each other...At any point of time, if China and BD connectivity is required to be flourished, it will be through the corridor of Tibet-Nepal-India and BD...Otherwise, it will not be cost effective for China to do trade and business with BD...

 

[Homo Sapiens]

BD is a land lock country. Can it be in road -belt without India being involved?

BD is land-locked? Where you have found this Vedic knowledge?

BD should join the initiatives that it perceives good for them...Apart from the noise in PDF, fact of the matter is India and BD are geographically dependent on each other...At any point of time, if China and BD connectivity is required to be flourished, it will be through the corridor of Tibet-Nepal-India and BD...Otherwise, it will not be cost effective for China to do trade and business with BD...

Tibet-Nepal-India-Bangladesh road is the most stupid idea ever.This trans-Himalayan road will never become economically viable.It will be a huge distance from China's heartland(eastern China) crossing vast and sparsely populated Qinghai and Tibetan plateau as well as impenetrable Himalayas. Actually most beneficial for Bangladesh and China will be Kunming-Mandalay-Sittwe-Cox's Bazar-Chittagong road. Total distance here will be 1500 km connecting a number of economically thriving cities.

 

[HariPrasad]

BD is land-locked? Where you have found this Vedic knowledge?

Tibet-Nepal-India-Bangladesh road is the most stupid idea ever.This trans-Himalayan road will never become economically viable.It will be a huge distance from China's heartland(eastern China) crossing vast and sparsely populated Qinghai and Tibetan plateau as well as impenetrable Himalayas. Actually most beneficial for Bangladesh and China will be Kunming-Mandalay-Sittwe-Cox's Bazar-Chittagong road. Total distance here will be 1500 km connecting a number of economically thriving cities.

Ok , I choosed wrong word. I mean BD land is locked (Not Sea) all side by only one country and that is India. How can there be a belt and road without India being involved? Can BD connect through road to any other country wothout the road passing throughIndia?